Article 50

As a general rule, any day the government loses in court is a good day. So yesterday was an especially fine day. A delicious one, too, obviously, in as much as the fist-clenched, foot-stamping, whining of so many Brexiteers was so overblown and ludicrous it toppled into hilarity. People who shouted for months about the urgent need to restore parliamentary sovereignty now reacted in horror to the restoration of parliamentary sovereignty. ‘That’s not what we meant’, they spluttered. We meant governmental supremacy only when it suits us. Well, tough. A certain amount of squealing was only to be expected since, if Nigel Farage has taught us anything, it is that the Brexit-minded

What you really should have done if you were in Birmingham on Monday this week was skip the not notably riveting Philip Hammond speech, and head instead for the fringe event run by the Bruges Group starring me, Professor David Myddelton and Charles Moore. I can’t speak for my performance (modesty forbids me) but my fellow panellists were brilliant: funny, incisive and as optimistic as you’d expect of a pair of ardent Brexiteers addressing the victorious home crowd for probably the first time since that happy day in June. (Charles is on stage talking about all of this (and more) in London on Monday, by the way. Tickets here). ‘Which

Theresa May doesn’t use an autocue for her speeches. She feels that reading off a screen at the back of the hall makes it far harder to connect with the audience. But the Prime Minister had no need to worry about her connection with the audience at this conference. Tory activists love her; they regard her as one of their own and are rejoicing at her leadership. ‘The grown ups are back in charge’ was a refrain heard frequently in Birmingham this week. The mood of Tory activists has been further improved by what Mrs May has said about Brexit. Her commitment to trigger Article 50 by the end of

So, what will be in the UK’s Article 50 letter? Boris Johnson had previously implied that the document would set out the UK’s aims for the negotiations, detailing the kind of relationship that this country wants with the EU in the future. But Chris Grayling just told Robert Peston that when Theresa May triggers Article 50, which she has said she will do before the end of March next year, she won’t set out the UK’s negotiating position. If this is the case, it is a mistake. Business and industry need to have a sense of, at least, what the UK government is trying to achieve. Without that, it will

Theresa May has made one thing clear: Brexit mean Brexit. But when will the Prime Minister actually pull the trigger and invoke Article 50? Boris Johnson gave his take last night: ‘The Government is working towards an Article 50 letter which as you know will be produced, probably, in the early part of next year. That’s still subject for discussion but what is clear I think to our friends and partners in the EU is two broad principles: we are not leaving Europe; Although we are leaving the EU treaties, we do want to have the closest possible trading relationship and it’s very much in their interests to achieve that…

The Brexit bounce continues. HM Treasury has today released forecasts of the economists it follows, as it does every month. Last time, there was a flurry of downgrades and forecasts of an immediate recession. Now, these forecasts are being torn up by everyone, including by the FT (although you can bet the FT won’t report on the upgrades as eagerly as it did the downgrades). The average new forecast suggests GDP will grow by 1.8 per cent this year, far better than the 1.5 per cent forecast last month. This back to where the consensus was before the Brexit vote. The OECD, which had previously predicted “immediate” uncertainty after a

I’m not a great optimist about the whole Brexit thing, although my colleagues would mostly disagree. It’s as if we were expecting a storm and we’re now cheering because it’s gone quiet. Strangely, eerily quiet. Anyway, like with climate change, I hope I’m wrong, and whenever I have my doubts about the whole thing, I think about the ‘Remain’ protests led by Eddie Izzard. Let’s hope these obviously counter-productive demonstrations continue for the next five years. However, one disaster that doesn’t seem to have materialised yet is the warning that Brexit would lead to a brain drain. One guy in the Guardian, called Mr Imhof, says he’s going, which is a shame, as

The Prime Minister and her colleagues are very slowly starting to reveal what they think they mean when they say ‘Brexit means Brexit’. This afternoon the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis will give a statement to Parliament on what the terms of negotiation might resemble for Brexit – or at least what the terms that ministers have come up with over the summer are. It may be that the Government isn’t actually ready to set very much out at all, but is just trying to avoid an urgent question from a hostile MP by giving a statement. Davis has described this as ‘an historic and

Theresa May welcomed the Cabinet to Chequers with this address, just released by Number 10: ‘Thank you very much for coming together today. It’s our first opportunity to meet since the summer recess, but also the first opportunity for us to meet since the fantastic success of the GB Team at the Olympics – absolutely great. And also the Paralympics will be starting very soon, so we wish our Paralympic athletes all the very best and success there as well. But obviously over the summer – over the last few weeks – quite a lot of work has been done. We’re going to be having an opportunity today to discuss

Britain’s decision to leave the EU sent shockwaves crashing throughout the continent. As Europe struggled to interpret the outcome of the referendum, we heard calls for Brussels to drive a hard bargain with the UK in order to contain the ‘Brexit contagion’. The European Council President Donald Tusk’s warning that the UK must not be allowed to ‘profit’ from leaving the bloc summed up this mood. But now, it seems, our neighbours in Europe are coming to terms with Brexit. And with it, the desire to punish the UK appears to be dampening. Michael Roth, Germany’s European Affairs minister, has this week suggested that a ‘special status’ could be achieved

Although Theresa May has repeatedly assured us that ‘Brexit means Brexit’, we’re still no closer to finding out what that actually means. The Prime Minister has done her best to play hardball in talks with other European leaders, having told Angela Merkel that control over free movement was an issue she would deliver on. But the fighting talk doesn’t actually mean much in practice. At least not yet anyway. And like it or not, one man who will play a key role in Brexit negotiations, Jean-Claude Juncker, is making it clear he’s not going to lie down and accept compromise on free movement. Here’s what he had to say: ‘There will

So when can the UK start negotiating its own trade agreements? Throughout the campaign and thereafter, Brexiters have made passionate pleas for liberating the UK from the EU so it can pursue trade deals of its own. Daniel Hannan, a senior campaigner for Leave, quipped that every continent was growing except Europe and Antarctica, and that Britain after Brexit should strike deals with emerging economies quickly. Boris Johnson suggested that countries like Australia and India were already lined up to begin talks. But before the UK can enter this glorious new era of bilateral trade deals, the new Prime Minister must negotiate the divorce terms with the EU. He or

What do David Cameron and the likes of Ed Balls and Harriet Harman have in common? The answer: they’ve all described Brexit as a ‘leap in the dark’. And they’re not alone in saying those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU have no plan for what happens next. We’ve heard the ‘leap in the dark’ phrase repeatedly over the last few months. But today Vote Leave have spelled out their action plan for a scenario that looks increasingly likely, at least if the polls are to be believed: what happens after a vote for Brexit on June 23rd? The ‘Leave’ campaign say that it would ‘make no sense to