2015 general election

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Many Tories have been disappointed with their party’s ground war

So now the wait for results begins. Talking to Tories who have been on the ground today, I’ve been struck by how dissatisfied so many of them were with the get out the vote operation that their party ran. The VoteSource database crashed for an hour, which would have been fine on any other day, but it meant that canvassers didn’t know which doors they should be knocking on. Labour has, as expected, flooded key seats with activists. But campaigners were genuinely surprised by quite how many they saw on the doorstep. Many reported being outnumbered three to one by Labourites who not only knew whose door to knock on,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Ed Miliband may soon be gone. But let’s remember what he got right

Most Conservatives I have spoken to in the last couple of hours are optimistic, hoping the prospect of RedEd in power has inspired a higher turnout amongst Tory voters. The Tories could still win, the polls could be as wrong as they were in 1992. But my concern is about the campaign. I hate to say that I think the Labour party fought the better one (not saying much, admittedly). Just as after the Scottish referendum I felt depressed that the unionists had relied so heavily on negativity, I find it depressing that the Tory campaign relied on anti-SNP sentiment. Yes, it has proved the most effective card they played – but

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Has Ed Miliband got something clever up his sleeve?

How will Ed Miliband manage tomorrow if Labour does end up the second largest party but with a viable ‘anti-Tory alliance’ in the House of Commons? The Tories are trying to craft a narrative that such a government would be illegitimate, and David Cameron will give a statement early on Friday. But there is a theory developing among some Tories who rate Miliband’s strategic skills that he could be about to produce his own clever game-changer too. He could be about to offer a significant devolution of powers to the regions, a huge transfer of power to Scotland and Wales, the elected Senate of the Nations and Regions that was

Niall Ferguson

The lesson of the 2015 election? No good deed goes unpunished

It was Clare Booth Luce, the witty and glamorous wife of the publisher of Time magazine, who coined the phrase that no good deed goes unpunished. It is all you need to know about British politics today. The UK had the best performing of the G7 economies last year, with a real GDP growth rate of 2.6%. In 2009, the last full year of Labour government, the figure was -4.3%. The coalition formed five years ago by Conservative leader David Cameron and the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg inherited an almighty mess from Gordon Brown, who had presided over feckless public sector expansion and reckless disregard for bank leverage and

Steerpike Steerpike

Let them eat (Sturgeon) cake

An interesting election day parcel has arrived at the Spectator office: it contains a box of ‘party leader cupcakes’ from Sky News. ‘We recommend eating David, Ed, Nick, Nigel, Nicola, Natalie and Leanne whilst they are still delicious and fresh,’ says the accompanying letter. Funny thing, though, somebody at the channel — we suspect a furtive Scot Nat — has packed our box full of Nicola Sturgeons (see picture). Not a David, Ed, Nick, Nigel, or Natalie in sight. Oh well, we are still grateful. Two of the cakes are now protecting Nicola’s modesty on this week’s Spectator cover image. Thank you Sky!

Steerpike Steerpike

Why E4’s election stunt may not stand the test of time

Today Channel 4’s sister channel E4 has made the bold decision to halt broadcasting any programmes until this evening in a bid to encourage their viewers to vote. The channel, which is aimed at youths between the ages of 16-24, will instead broadcast a cartoon of a purple creature asking viewers to get off the sofa and vote because ‘there is nothing more important than democracy and Hollyoaks‘. Happily, the broadcaster has managed to find a way to combine both democracy and their popular soap opera among their top priorities. Programmes will resume tonight at 7pm, just in time for Hollyoaks. In fact, statistics by Barb show that all the channel’s most popular programmes begin after 7pm. The only

Matthew Bailey

The moments between: the art of putting bums on seats on election night

When the cameras go live in the BBC studios tonight for their election coverage it will mark 65 years of televised analysis of the results. As the BBC’s own delightful paean to these programmes showed, it will also mark 65 years of an awful lot of hanging around. Election night coverage approaches what the film historian Charles Barr has called ‘pure television’: those occasions of live transmission with which cinema simply cannot compete. It can be excruciating stuff. On election night in 1964 the evening’s host, Cliff Michalmore, filled time with a libidinous survey of the ‘lovely gals’ on show for the audience at home. Come 1979 we were treated

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

Is Ed Miliband really proud to have fought alongside me? I’m not so sure

Sheesh, sometimes you read something and it makes you go all gooey inside. Take this email I got from Ed Miliband. Dear Rod, As I write this, Justine and I are on our last trip on the Labour campaign bus. We’re heading back from an incredible supporter rally in Leeds to Doncaster so we can vote there first thing tomorrow morning. So while I have this rare, quiet moment, I want to say this: thank you. I am so proud to have fought this campaign alongside you. If our country votes for a Labour government tomorrow, it will be because of the dedication, passion and generosity of hundreds of thousands

Sebastian Payne

Updated: The final polls are in — and it’s still neck and neck

The polling stations open in under 10 hours and the final opinion polls are out. As we’ve seen throughout this campaign, there’s not much variance at all, with all of the pollsters putting Labour and the Tories tied — or with a small lead within the margin of error. There’s a few still to come and we’ll update the list below as they are released: Ipsos MORI: Conservative 36 per cent, Labour 35 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent, Green five per cent ICM: Labour 35 per cent, Conservative 34 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green four per cent Lord Ashcroft: Conservative 33 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent,

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Revealed: the party with the most negative election campaign

Which party is the most negative in this election campaign? All of them have spent a great deal of time being negative about their opponents’ apparent negativity, claiming that only their own party is running a positive campaign about the future for this country, and so on. But it’s easy to make grand claims, and even easier not to measure up to them at all. To give us an answer, academics at British Election Leaflet Project at the University of Nottingham have analysed leaflets from the parties in this campaign. They looked at 1,300 pieces of election literature from nearly 300 constituencies. All the leaflets were uploaded on electionleaflets.org. Their

Sebastian Payne

Election night: the ten ‘Portillo moments’ to watch out for

Election night is going to be a long affair but some excitement will ensue if any prominent politicians lose their seats — unexpectedly or otherwise. There is likely to be at least one ‘Portillo moment‘ — akin to the the 1997 election night when then-Tory MP Michael Portillo lost his seat and signalled that the Tories were on course to be out of power for 13 years. In chronological order, here are the big name politicians to watch out for tomorrow morning: 1. Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire South Expected declaration time: 3:00am Region: Scotland Majority: 16,614 MP in 2010: Douglas Alexander – Labour 2010 result: Lab 60%, SNP 18%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 10%

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Nervous Tory candidates say race too tight to call

Tonight’s a nervous night if you’re an candidate for re-election in a marginal seat (or in Scotland). You might have an impressive get-out-the-vote operation, or you might have spent the past five years wheeling and dealing in Westminster on behalf of your constituents so that you have a strong personal brand, but it might be that voters just aren’t that into your party. Or, in spite of your best efforts, you. A good number of the Tory candidates in marginals who I spoke to today feel as though the race is too tight for them to have any idea whether they will be back in Westminster next week. The same

Steerpike Steerpike

David Cameron visits a zoo with no animals

The feral travelling Tory press pack were suited and booted this morning in the pouring Cheshire rain and led up a muddy path to a giant rock. No, David Cameron was not going to unveil his answer to a Miliband’s carved pledge stone, in fact he wasn’t going to say anything at all. You can imagine the spin doctor’s train out thought for the last day of full campaigning in the longest, most tiresome election in modern memory. Let’s got to the zoo! Let’s go to tigers enclosure! Tigers are brave, PMs need courage and so on. Or perhaps they wanted to win Piers Morgan’s vote; he has revealed today

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Nick Clegg got coalition wrong. Tomorrow, he’ll pay the price

It’s hard not to feel a bit sorry for Nick Clegg. He’s a decent man who took a tough decision to put his party into coalition with the Conservatives, and lost half of his support as a result. Tomorrow, his party will be hammered. His great miscalculation was imagining that in England the Lib Dems would emerge with a list of achievements voters would applaud – as they did in the 2003 Holyrood elections when, after four years of coalition, the Lib Dems overtook the Scottish Conservatives to become the third-largest party. On the radio the other day Clegg vainly paraded his boast list, his own version of Kelly Clarkson’s Because

Sebastian Payne

How did David Cameron spend his final day campaigning?

David Cameron’s 72-hour tour of Britain has finished up in the north west this afternoon. I have followed the Prime Minister to two campaign ‘events’ this afternoon — both purely for photo opportunities and neither involved meeting any ordinary voters. By this point in the campaign, knocking on doors is probably not the most effective use of time, so the best Cameron can hope for is to look enthused and feature in some colourful snaps. His first major event of the day was at a building site at Chester Zoo, in the heart of the Northern Powerhouse. A new tiger pen is being constructed,  an ideal opportunity for the Prime Minister to

Hugo Rifkind Hugo Rifkind

If the SNP doesn’t hate the English, why do so many of its supporters behave as if they do?

You get bad losers in politics and bad winners, too, but it’s surely a rare business to get a bad winner who didn’t actually win. Yet this, since they lost last September’s referendum, has been the role of the SNP. Dismay, reassessment, introspection, contrition, resignation; all of these have been wholly absent. Instead, they have been triumphalist. Lording it, with cruel and haughty disdain, over their vanquished foes. Who, we must remember, they didn’t even vanquish. Well, maybe they’ve vanquished them now. I write this pre-election, with the polls all saying that the Nats will win something between almost every Scottish seat and actually every Scottish seat. Only, of course,

Ross Clark Ross Clark

I have worked out the only possible way to build a viable government (but it’s not pretty)

For the past few days the BBC website has had an interactive game where you have to build your own coalition, using a series of possible results from tomorrow’s election. It ought to be marketed as an educational test, far more challenging even than Michael Gove’s rigorous school tests. But finally, I think I have done it. I have worked out the only possible way to build a viable government using the composition of the House of Commons which the polls appear to be predicting. Take Nate Silver’s analysis of the polls this morning, which predicts the following: Tories 281 seats, Labour 266, SNP 52, LibDem 26, DUP 8, Sinn

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The new Lib Dem party strategy: drown voters in leaflets

If you want an idea of how exhausting this election has been for some voters in marginals, just watch this video of a Green supporter in Bristol West: I profiled the seat, where the Lib Dems are trying to hold off a ‘Green surge’ among middle-class voters, here and I was rather impressed with quite how many leaflets Stephen Williams had managed to produce even before the short campaign got underway. It will be a tough seat for the Lib Dems to hold, even if the Greens don’t win, as Labour appears to be in front currently. But perhaps Williams is trying a new ‘get out the vote’ strategy, in which

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Last ditch attempts to win votes are pointless without months of legwork

All three party leaders are in the middle of their last-minute campaigning efforts, travelling across the country with little sleep. But what are they actually doing during these last few hours before polls open? David Cameron underlined that this isn’t just about meeting voters but about the photo opportunities by deciding to have a cosy chat with members of the farming community in Brecon… at 6 o’clock in the morning. The press were held back by this rather pointless pen (which later fell over) while the Prime Minister held his morning chat. To be fair, farmers do get up very early, though more to deal with their animals than for