2015 general election

Ed Miliband was on Andrew Marr’s sofa this morning, drawing 2015 battle lines. It all looked very encouraging – if you are a conservative, that is. Miliband started discussing the Paris attacks, saying he wants to give the security services what is necessary — but as MI5’s director-general said on Thursday evening, that means more than money. It means the powers to put a wire on the bad guys, intercept emails and do so quickly. Does Miliband agree that these capabilities are also needed? On the deficit, he tried to play the fiscal hawk… “Most Labour leaders go into elections saying we’re going to raise spending. “I’ve got great news”,

Will the next Parliament be impossible to handle? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, James Forsyth and Compass’ Neal Lawson discuss the latest Spectator cover feature on the challenges facing Ed Miliband or David Cameron if either manage to secure a majority on 7 May 2015. Will the Labour left or Tory right prove too troublesome for the respective leaders? Should Miliband or Cameron be the most worried? And are we on the brink of major electoral reform? Hugo Rifkind and Isabel Hardman also discuss the A&E crisis facing Britain and the problems of the NHS being used a political football. Who is to blame for the current crisis and will the government

Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on impossible to predict. Even the grand Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft has refused to publicly say what he thinks, stating today only that he reckons ‘it’s going to be quite exciting’. Instead of offering us his thoughts on who will win, Ashcroft has posted online all of his constituency level polling since May 2014. We’ve already reported on some of these polls but it’s worth revisiting some of the seats, because they offer an insight into some of the trends that may play out in the election. Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on

Michael Gove pitched up on Newsnight yesterday to give one of his typically confident performances to the programme. Apparently CCHQ don’t believe any floating voters watch the BBC’s flagging current affairs show. The Chief Whip was removed from his previous role as Education Secretary because of poor poll ratings with floating voters, and senior Tories involved in that move were keen that he only be unleashed in controlled circumstances, despite being dubbed one of the new ‘ministers for broadcast’. So Gove wasn’t there to persuade wavering mothers in Bolton, but he was trying to persuade those who were watching that the Tories remain confident they can win a majority in May. He even

The Tories’ front of house team turned up today to try and stoke up a row about Labour’s spending plans. The Tory aim was twofold. First, to try and cement in voters’ minds the idea that Labour would spend too much, pushing up taxes and second to claim that Labour is in chaos when it tries to distance itself from previous spending commitments. The latter is why the Tories are so relaxed about people pointing out that various commitments in their own dossier do not appear in Labour’s official policy prospectus, the one issued after the party’s National Policy Forum. Osborne, Hague, May, Morgan and Javid all came carrying the same

Another day, another poster – and this time, it’s Labour stretching the truth. The above is the same trick as George Osborne was playing with the deficit. The reader is invited to believe that the Tories would cut state spending back to 1930s levels ‘when there was no NHS’ – or much of a welfare state at all, come to think of it. In truth, George Osborne has (unwisely, in my view) pledged to increase NHS spending if re-elected and overall state spending will be at least five times higher than in the 1930s. So how can Labour get away with this – and how did this deception enter the

So – how did it go? Yesterday, Tory HQ yesterday issued a poster with the misleading claim that the deficit had been ‘halved’ where in fact the reduction has been closer to a third (see below). In election campaigns, a ‘porkie*’ is introduced in stages. It debuts when dropped into a speech or article. If no one complains, it gets used again with a bit more boldness. And if there’s still no pushback, it’ll be used bigger – say, on a poster. As it was with Labour’s £35bn Tory cuts porkie, so it is with Osborne’s ‘halved the deficit’ porkie. But judging by today’s newspapers, the ‘poster’ stage of this

New year, new porkies from Conservative HQ. It has opened 2015 with a poster that involves a deception (above): ‘the defict halved’. It’s a relatively small deception: the deficit has been reduced by a third (see graph below) just as David Cameron was saying only a few weeks ago. But this poster makes a more important, and more depressing point: the Tory leadership is prepared to use dishonesty as a weapon in this election campaign. Here’s how I suspect it all unravelled. George Osborne invented the porkie: that you can say ‘the deficit has been halved’ if, when challenged, you later claim that you’re referring not the deficit, but to a

The main business of the day in the House of Commons is Labour’s debate on Lord Freud, a row that blew up nearly a fortnight ago. The party’s motion, entitled ‘Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Welfare Reform and disabled people’, finishes with ‘. . . this House has no confidence in the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Welfare Reform; and calls on the Prime Minister to dismiss him.’ It’s not a wise move to put any money on David Cameron meeting this demand, given that Freud apologised on the same day his comments about disabled people and the minimum wage were raised at Prime Minister’s Questions. Unless you’ve got a lot of

What to do about Ukip is dominating the conversation on the fringe and in the conference bars here in Manchester. But Ukip is only part of the challenge for the Tories. At the next election, they need to hold onto their 2010 supporters and—if they are to win a majority—take votes off Labour. The Tories will only be able to do that if they can reassure these voters on the cost of living and public services. So, this week we’ll see the Tories trying to underscore their commitment to the NHS. There’s already been the cancer drugs fund announcement and Jeremy Hunt will, as I said in the Mail on

Peter Hain is pessimistic about Ed Miliband’s chances, in spite of what the bookies say*. ‘If a general election was held tomorrow, Labour wouldn’t win a majority,’ he writes in Progress Online. ‘The truth is if we want a majority in 2015, we need to be performing better than we are now.’ He also zeroes in on the problem: Ed Balls, and how few of his Shadow Cabinet colleagues will support him: ‘We cannot afford to be equivocal about our economic policy. We need to be more upfront with the public about our intentions. Yes, we will borrow more in the short-term, in order to generate growth that will reduce

This conference season marks the half way point to the next election and we can see the political battle lines becoming clearer. The Tories, as their new poster campaign shows, intends to hammer Labour as the party that has learnt nothing from its mistakes. The argument of the coalition parties, which Nick Clegg previewed in Brighton, will be that the world has changed but Labour is stuck in the pre-crash era with its borrow and spend economics. Ed Miliband for his part wants to run as the man who is ‘on your side’. Today’s policy announcement taking aim at pension charges and the energy companies are designed to resonate with