2015 general election

Can George Osborne pass his own 13 tests?

Before George Osborne took to wearing hard hats and hi-vis jackets, he used to revel in his status as a political insider. In 2004, he wrote a piece for The Spectator setting out his model for forecasting the result of UK General Elections. Adapted from an academic model for predicting US Presidential Elections, it set out the ’13 keys to Number 10’ and argued that if a government held six of these it would win re-election. Here are Osborne’s 13 tests and how the government is doing on them: 1. Real per capita economic growth during the parliament equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two parliaments. Yes:

If you’re going to have seven parties in the TV debates, you’ve got to include the DUP

Having seven parties in two of the TV debates, as the broadcasters are reportedly proposing, is an admission that what matters is not whether the party will provide the Prime Minister but whether it might have influence in a hung parliament. On this basis, there is no justification for excluding the DUP. The DUP currently have eight seats in the Commons, more than Plaid Cymru, Ukip and the Greens put together. Even after the next election, the DUP are likely to have more MPs than any of these parties. It is baffling that the broadcasters have ended up concluding that Plaid Cymru, who have fewer MPs than the DUP and

UK and Scottish governments already at each other’s throats over extra devolution

It didn’t take long. In fact, the tweet from Nicola Sturgeon appeared soon after Alistair Carmichael had started speaking this morning. Smith clauses publication welcome – but doesn’t include a general power to create new benefits in devolved areas as was promised 1/2… — Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) January 22, 2015 2/2…and gives UKG effective veto over changes to universal credit, including bedroom tax. @scotgov will work to secure improvements — Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) January 22, 2015 The Scottish Secretary was in Edinburgh with fellow Scot Danny Alexander to launch the UK government’s blueprint for more devolution for Scotland. Carmichael was just championing the arbitration process, which would sort out any

Steerpike

Here’s why nobody has been able to verify the ‘Green Surge’ membership numbers

‘The Green Surge’ has already become a fixed feature of the election campaign, but are we just reliving the giant damp squib of ‘Cleggmania’? According to Green Party officials, their membership stands at 45,558. Since Cameron declared they should be in the TV debates, thousands have supposedly signed on the dotted line. Apparently, of the 14,780 new members that have signed up since 1 Jan 2015, just 151 are renewals. But there has been zero independent verification of the numbers; they are asking us to take their word for it. A spokesman tells Steerpike that the party was not prepared for the influx of new members: ‘Our servers did become overwhelmed for

Podcast: Comedy meets politics and Osborne’s 13 tests for No.10

Why has politics turned into stand-up comedy? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Andrew Watts and Jesse Norman MP discuss this week’s Spectator cover feature on how these two worlds are colliding. What does the increased influence of comedy mean for our faith in politics? Aside from notably humorous politicians like Boris Johnson, how funny are MPs generally? And which member of the Labour shadow cabinet is deemed so funny he could be a professional stand-up? James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman also look at 13 tests to make it into Downing Street set by George Osborne — in 2004. Based on a Spectator piece he wrote earlier in his

Welcome to the completely bonkers world of the Green Party manifesto

I was about to shut down my computer last night when I made the mistake of clicking on an article about the Green Party’s manifesto, possibility the scariest thing since Victor from The Returned. Say what you like about the Greens, a party with support now at 11 per cent, but at least they’re not just the same as any other party. None of that ‘neoliberal’ nonsense here. Here are some excerpts from the Daily Telegraph article:   Top-ups [will be] given for people with children or disabilities, or to pay rent and mortgages. No-one will see a reduction in benefits, and most will see a substantial increase. Parents will be entitled to

Labour might not like to admit it but economic growth has created an employment boom

With 105 days to go until the General Election, politicians of all sides will be slugging it out between now and 7 May. The starting gun has been fired and the policy battles have begun. Unfortunately, we are starting to hear a lot of misinformation from the Opposition. When the Labour Party continually talk down the UK’s employment opportunities, it has a negative impact on the confidence of jobseekers across the UK.  On a day when we have seen a new set of milestones – the unemployment rate falling to a six year low of 5.8 per cent, jobs vacancies at a 14-year record high, 30.8 million people in work and

Labour’s new political broadcast uses a veteran to promote NHS scare stories

Now we know what ‘weaponising’ the NHS looks like: a World War II veteran. Labour has released an emotive party political broadcast via Mirror Online starring Harry Leslie Smith. The 91-year old received two standing ovations at the Labour conference last year for his strident defence of the NHS — a theme continued in this video. The purpose of the PPB can be summed up in two words: emotional blackmail. Labour appear to have used Leslie Smith, telling a very moving story about his family and how much the NHS has done to improve our quality of life, to point to the notion that the health service is somehow in

Watch: Green leader Natalie Bennett backs Cameron on TV debates

What are you afraid of boys? The Green Party posed this question on Westminster’s College Green this morning as they launched a new poster campaign (driven around on pedal bikes, natch) calling for the Greens to be involved in the TV leaders debates. Leader Natalie Bennett also announced that the party’s membership is up to 44,175 today — 52,000 including Scotland. I asked Bennett how she feels about being used by the Prime Minister for his own political gains. She doesn’t seem to mind too much: ‘Mr Cameron is certainly speaking for his own political advantage – but he’s only able to do that because it’s a fair and responsible thing to

Steerpike

Will South Thanet care that Al Murray has a gig in Dartford on election night?

On election night, Al Murray will not be in South Thanet as is the usual custom among candidate hopefuls. Instead, the 46-year-old comedian will be performing a gig in Dartford. Despite launching his campaign last week to run as a Free United Kingdom Party candidate in the same constituency Nigel Farage is vying for, Murray’s comedy tour means he will be nowhere to be seen for the bulk of the night, though it’s thought he will head there after his show. The Orchard Theatre’s marketing manager Michelle May has confirmed that Murray is to go ahead with the gig. ‘Al is 100 per cent committed to his spring One Man, One Guvnor

Isabel Hardman

Parties stick in comfort zones for another Monday of campaigning

It’s another election Monday and the three parties are still hanging about in their comfort zones, even though they appear to have moved on to other topics. David Cameron is talking about the economy, but with a softer, nicer-sounding edge that has riled some on the Left because it involves him talking about full employment, which is something Beveridge was a fan of, and pay rises, which is something Labour says it wants more (while backing the public sector pay freeze).The Prime Minister will give a speech promising to expand the start-up loans to help 50,000 more entrepreneurs set up business using a £300 million pot. The Prime Minister wants

Al Murray standing against Nigel Farage in South Thanet

Nigel Farage will now have to compete for space at the bar with comedian Al Murray, who has announced he will stand for Parliament in South Thanet, as The Pub Landlord for the Free United Kingdom Party. FUKP’s manifesto contains many ‘common sense policies’ similar to those we’ve heard before from the Pub Landlord. Here’s how he will offer the voters of South Thanet a bold alternative to the mainstream (and alternative) political parties: The pound in your pocket: The pound will be revalued at one pound 10p, so it will now be worth 10p more. Common sense. The NHS: If you come to A&E and it’s neither an accident nor an emergency then you will be

James Forsyth

The debate about TV debates dominated today’s PMQs

PMQs today was dominated by the debate about debates. After a few statesmanlike questions about the aftermath of the Paris terrorist attacks, Miliband started to needle Cameron about his reluctance to take part in TV debates while Labour MPs made chicken noises. Cameron claimed that he was happy to take part in TV debates as long as the Greens were included and accused Labour of being ‘chicken when it comes to the Greens’; he seemed to back one 5-way debate and one head to head between him and Miliband. Downing Street believes this to be a perfectly defensible position but Cameron is taking a risk by setting it out so

Did Richard Curtis script today’s showdown between Osborne and Balls?

Even though they ended up walking through the lobbies together (though not hand in hand, skipping, sadly), Ed Balls and George Osborne still managed to have the sort of Commons showdown that would fit right in to the script of Bridget Jones. On and on their furious fighting went, over whether the long-term economic plan was working, over whether Labour had a long-term economic plan, over whether Britain would get its AAA credit rating back, over whether Balls would borrow more and whether Osborne was cutting the deficit slower than he’d intended. On and on and on. Both looked as though they were enjoying tearing chunks out of one another

Alex Massie

Nigel Farage: a two-bit demagogue and believer in lazy ‘Root Causes’

Nigel Farage has performed a useful public service this week. Yes, really, he has. The UKIP leader, you see, is a believer in Root Causes. He is, in fact, a Root Causer and, like every member of that miserable tribe, liable to see every event as confirming the righteousness of his own longstanding, stale-breathed, prejudices. You see we – the west generally – bring all this trouble upon ourselves. At home and abroad. It’s western foreign policy that explains and motivates Islamic extremism and it’s uncontrolled (sic) immigration that’s given it room to flourish in France, the United Kingdom and other countries. How very convenient. The idea that the Charlie Hebdo murders

Isabel Hardman

Has anyone seen Nigel Farage?

‘Ukip seems to have imploded,’ one ‘mainstream’ politician remarked to me yesterday. ‘We haven’t heard anything from them.’ True, Ukip have been rather quiet since Christmas, but anyone in the Tories or Labour who is dancing around imagining that they’re set fair for an election without Nigel Farage has got rather carried away. The truth is that Farage’s party has decided to stay a little quiet for a few weeks, at least while the main parties slug it out over who would really cut the deficit and who really cares about the NHS. Sources tell me that they think the effect of all these launches, counter-launches, dossiers and dossiers debunking

Steerpike

F***gate: How will the Tories deal with Flick Drummond’s campaign posters?

Flick Drummond’s campaign to win a Conservative seat in Portsmouth South has hit a bump in the road. Word reaches Mr S that plans for a set of campaign posters for Flick had to be revised after the Conservatives realised that from a distance the poster could be misread as  -well, another word starting in F. The issue appears to be with one particular set of Conservative election posters which has the candidate’s name all in upper case and white font. When you put Flick Drummond’s name in this format, as Mr S did in the mock-ups shown, there is a rather unfortunate effect if viewed from a distance… ‘It’s bloody embarrassing but also bloody

An anomaly or new trend? Tories six points ahead in latest Ashcroft poll

What is going on with the opinion polls? In his first national poll of 2015, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour at 34 per cent — whereas Populus also have a new poll out today putting Labour five points ahead. And yesterday’s YouGov poll put both on 32 per cent. As the chart above shows, three of the UK’s most prominent pollsters all have completely different predictions on who will win the next election. This poll shows a significant jump in the Conservative position since Ashcroft’s last 2014 poll, which put the party on 40 per cent. So, the question is what’s going on — is this

Boffo new Tory election strategy: reinforce negative stereotypes

Following the success of the Tories’ last anti-UKIP strategy session, I’ve been leaked details of the latest election planning at CCHQ: […] I say, what’s the most damaging – and widely-held – perception about the Conservatives? Hmmm. That we’re the party for the rich? Most unfair, I think we can all agree. Right, moving on, what’s next? Let’s cut inheritance tax.  Hurrah!   It’s the least we can do for ordinary wealthy Britons…  If it weren’t for Ed Miliband this election would be over by now. Thank heavens for Ed, then.

Fraser Nelson

Revealed: the truth about Ed Miliband’s ‘1930s’ porkie

Today, on the Andrew Marr show, Ed Miliband repeated his porkie that David Cameron plans to reduce state spending to 1930s levels. When he first made this bizarre and obviously untrue claim, even your baristas here at Coffee House didn’t have 1930s spending data to hand. Now we do, so the extent of his deceit can be laid bare. The above graph (which you can explore by moving your cursor over the lines) shows total UK government spending, adjusted to today’s money. At £720 billion, the level of state spending in 2020 under George Osborne’s plans will be almost ten times higher the levels of the 1930s. Now that the Tories have agreed to drop their claim