2015 general election

Wednesday

Sebastian Payne

Could Nick Clegg really lose his seat?

Will the Liberal Democrats avoid being wiped out at the upcoming election? In his latest round of constituency polling, Lord Ashcroft has revisited eight Liberal Democrat marginal constituencies he deems to be close races. Across all the seats, Ashcroft reports there is presently a four per cent swing to the Tories since the last election. Use the interactive chart to see the polls for each constituency. The picture is mixed for the Lib Dems. In four of the seats — North Cornwall, St Ives, Torbay and Cambridge — they are on track to hold the seats, despite swings to the Conservatives. But the Tories are ahead in two Lib Dem seats: St Austell &

Steerpike Steerpike

Jim Murphy’s popularity surges (in England)

There’s not much love for Labour in Scotland at the moment, with Mr S reporting this week that Jim Murphy has failed to mention his own party on campaign leaflets. As the SNP come out on top in the polls and the reds hope for a ‘late swing‘ to Labour north of the border, the Scottish Labour leader can take comfort that he is at least popular down south. Word reaches Mr S that at a London fundraiser last week for the Scottish Labour Party, a jog with fitness freak Jim was auctioned off for well over £1,000. Meanwhile a bottle of House of Commons whisky signed by Ed Miliband failed to reach £100 in bids,

Alex Massie Alex Massie

A shocking Scottish opinion poll reveals that Labour aren’t dead yet

When is a disaster also a miracle? When it allows Scottish Labour to simultaneously endure its worst result since 1931 and live to fight another day, that’s when. Yesterday’s ComRes/ITV poll is the best news Labour has enjoyed in months. That’s how grim it has been for Labour lately. A poll of voters in 40 Labour constituencies which puts them six points behind the SNP may not be much of a lifeline but it’s the only lifeline available to the erstwhile people’s party. It will have to do. Sure, this poll suggests the SNP could take as many as 28 Labour seats meaning that the nationalists would, probably, win something like

Tuesday

Sebastian Payne

New poll shows SNP will annihilate Labour — but the nation is still divided over independence

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Does David Cameron’s new jobs plan mean recruiting a million more immigrants?

The Conservatives have offered a rather peculiar new pledge: another two million jobs. They are right to focus on their record job creation, as I outlined in my Spectator cover story on the jobs miracle. But I also discussed, then, how there are already now massive worker shortages in certain parts of the country – and employers in places like Poole can’t get enough immigrants. In several parts of the country, we are already hitting what economists call ‘full employment’. Cameron’s target should not be x more workers, but unemployment reduction – or, ‘full employment’ in every part of the UK. You can do that by shortening dole queues. This, and only

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Two more polls suggest Ed Miliband’s ‘Paxo bounce’ is sliding away

Ed Miliband’s so-called ‘Paxo bounce’ in the opinion polls is ebbing away. The polls out this evening have the Conservatives either level pegging with Labour or slightly ahead. Tonight’s latest from YouGov/The Sun has both parties neck and neck, with the Conservatives and Labour on 35 per cent — a three point rise for the Tories on Sunday — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on five. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Tories two points ahead on 36 per cent, up three points from last week. The Tory pollster has Labour on 34 per cent, Ukip on ten, the Lib Dems

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Ten points from David Cameron’s Daily Mail interview

David Cameron has given an interview to the Daily Mail where he appears to confirm that he will extend Right-to-Buy to 2.5m housing association tenants – a plan first revealed by James Forsyth. Here are the main points of the interview:- 1. Cameron says he’ll extend Right-to-Buy, blames Lib Dems for resisting him thus far. ‘I am a massive supporter of the right-to-buy. I have sweated blood in this government to get the Liberal Democrats, who don’t really buy this and believe in it, to agree to bigger discounts, to market the right-to-buy to stop councils hiding it away from their tenants. We’ve got more people who’ve bought their council homes. We’ve got

Harry Cole

Nick Clegg’s women problem

Nick Clegg ain’t done yet, and as if to prove how deadly serious he is about winning this election, the Deputy Prime Minister visited a hedgehog sanctuary on his first campaign stop. Probably his least prickly public encounter since 2010. The Liberal Democrats have focussed their initial onslaught focusing on women, with Monday’s Guardian reporting that it was ‘his mission to win over female voters in a number of his party’s target constituencies’: ‘Party strategists believe that winning over the female vote will be crucial to their chances of success across a range of key battleground constituencies.’ All of which is a little embarrassing when you consider just how poor

Sebastian Payne

Watch: new party political broadcasts from the Tories and Labour

Lucky viewers of BBC One this evening will have seen the Conservative party’s brand new political broadcast. Entitled ‘Securing a better future for your family’ — watch above — the saccharine video is designed to soften the hearts of even the most ardent Tory haters. Loaded with messages about abolishing the deficit, cutting income tax, investing in the NHS, creating millions of apprenticeships and extending Help to Buy, the PPB is targeted at one demographic: families. The Tories are often accused of purely concentrating on the ‘grey vote’, with messages and policies designed to appeal to pensioners, who are much more likely to actually vote. But this broadcast features young

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Were the Tories’ dodgy figures designed to provoke Labour into making a statement?

Why are the Tories peddling what the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has described as ‘at best unhelpful’, which is the claim that households would be hit with a £3,000 tax bombshell if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister? The IFS’ analysis came out earlier today, but this evening George Osborne repeated the claim, saying: ‘Well it’s based on what the Labour party has voted for and what Ed Miliband has said he will do… I am confident that that is based on what the Labour party has voted for in Parliament.’ listen to ‘George Osborne stands by £3,000 Labour tax rise claim’ on audioBoom

Hugo Rifkind Hugo Rifkind

Labour’s most shameful mug? It has to be Diane Abbott

This is an extract from Hugo Rifkind’s column in the next issue of The Spectator, out on Thursday: The Labour party has put its five core election pledges on mugs. No, I don’t know why. Presumably the idea is that you buy all five, and then, when your friends come around for tea, you each drink yours out of the one featuring your favourite. Yeah, I know. As if the sort of people who’d buy these mugs would have friends. There’s an odd fuss, though, about mug four, which says CONTROLS ON IMMIGRATION on it. Quite widely, this has been perceived as a gaffe, a betrayal, a slump into Faragism,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon may well win Thursday’s leaders debate

I know it’s early, but I’d like to tip a winner from Thursday’s debate: Nicola Sturgeon. SNP leader. She has just been positioned next to the Prime Minister, who’ll be on the far-right. This which will cause relief in Tory HQ who had been worried about his being flanked by Nigel Farage and Sturgeon. The lineup, from left to right, is as follows:- Natalie Bennett – Nick Clegg – Nigel Farage – Ed Miliband – Leanne Wood – Nicola Sturgeon – David Cameron Best Coconut Shy Ever: pic.twitter.com/trYzoqZY5i — Ian Hyland (@HylandIan) March 30, 2015 Sturgeon will be new to an English audience, and is certain to impress. So far, the write-ups haven’t done her justice: there have been too

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron: It is me or Miliband

It is rare for politicians to mention their opponents by name – don’t give them the publicity is the normal approach. But standing in Downing Street just now to announce the start of the election campaign, David Cameron pointed at the door of Number 10 and said ‘The next Prime Minister walking through that door will be me or Ed Miliband’. There’s a method to the Tory approach. They believe that one of their trump cards in this election is that the public just can’t see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. They want to force voters to confront the choice that one of Miliband or Cameron will be Prime Minister

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

Why is Labour making merit out of not backing an EU referendum?

Fair play to Ed Miliband for launching Labour’s business manifesto today in Bloomberg, not perhaps the party’s natural stamping ground, at least not since the prawn cocktail initiative in 1997. And it was gutsy of it too to take out a full page advertisement in the FT – they don’t come cheap – to broadcast the party’s opposition to an EU referendum. ‘The biggest risk to British business is the threat of an EU exit. Labour will put the national interest first. We will deliver reform, not exit’, it says. Granted most British businesses, especially big ones and foreign-based ones, don’t want out of the EU. But doesn’t it seem

Sebastian Payne

First poll of the campaign puts the Tories four points ahead

And we’re off! Today is the first day of the proper general election campaign and the rollercoaster of polls continues. ComRes/ITV News/Daily Mail have released a new poll putting the Conservatives four points ahead —  their biggest lead since September 2010 — which is the complete opposite of yesterday’s YouGov shocker. According to ComRes, the Conservatives are currently on 36 per cent, Labour has dropped to 32 per cent, Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on nine and the Greens on five. As with the YouGov poll, the fieldwork was conducted after the Paxman Q&A on Thursday but the numbers are favourable to David Cameron. Many of the

Damian Thompson Damian Thompson

Look at this cheap trick the Tories tried to play on me

‘Mansion Tax Revaluation Information’, said the letter that came through my letterbox, in an envelope that screamed ‘council’ or ‘taxman’ or something alarming. The letter inside was carefully formatted to look official. ‘Your property has been identified as one which could be affected by Ed Miliband’s “Mansion Tax”. This could leave you with an additional bill of more than £20,000 per year.’ And then: ‘Labour has promised to introduce the Mansion Tax immediately. The Inland Revenue will send out demands for payment after the budget in June. That is three months away, are you ready and able to pay Labour’s Mansion Tax?’ You had to turn over the page for the

Steerpike Steerpike

Jim Murphy fails to mention Labour on his campaign leaflets

Earlier this month the Labour party were accused of not including pictures of Ed Miliband on campaign literature out of fear that the mere image of their party leader could scare off voters. Now Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy appears to have gone one step further and simply not mentioned Labour at all. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, claims that campaign leaflets for Murphy fail to mention the Labour party once: I get @JimForScotland leaving Miliband off his leaflet but why has he left off @scottishlabour? Not a single mention. pic.twitter.com/FenbKEf774 — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) March 29, 2015 With recent polling by Lord Ashcroft predicting that Murphy will hold on to his East Renfrewshire seat

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

Podcast special: eve of the general election campaign + SNP spring conference

The general election campaign kicks off tomorrow and Labour appears to have the ‘Big Mo’. In this View from 22 podcast special,  Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the state of the polls — and the new YouGov/Sunday Times poll which suggests Labour are four points ahead — and whether Ed Miliband’s ‘win’ in the TV Q&A this week has put the Tories on the back foot. What can we expect to happen in the first week of the campaign? We also discuss the SNP’s spring conference in Glasgow and why the Nats are trying to reach out to the rest of the United Kingdom, You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Lucy Powell confirms: debt-addicted Labour has no plan to balance the books

‘You aren’t listening to what I’m saying,’ said a rather rattled Lucy Powell, Labour’s election chief, whom the party put up for BBC Sunday Politics today. I suspect that, by now, she’ll have wished that we weren’t listening. Because in a commendable moment of candour, she admitted that the Labour Party intends to keep debt rising should it win power – and has no real deficit reduction strategy. Ms Powell dispensed with Ed Balls tricksy language and told it how it is. Here she is, talking to BBC Sunday Politics (11 mins in, after complaining about a ‘Paxo-style interview’). ‘Andrew Neil: You would borrow more, wouldn’t you? Andrew Neil: To bridge the deficit

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour 4 points ahead. Be afraid.

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that ‘crossover’ had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron’s bizarre pre-resignation on Monday and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate on Thursday seems to have had an effect. Sure, they were watched by only 3 million people vs. 10 million for the 2010 debates – but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that’s the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if