2015 general election

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Why is Nigel Farage in Grimsby instead of battling for South Thanet?

Nigel Farage is in Great Grimsby today, campaigning with Ukip candidate Victoria Ayling. The last Ashcroft poll focusing on Great Grimsby put Ukip behind Labour by one point, and that was in December 2014. Farage started his day at the docks before visiting a local fish market, to highlight the problems that the European Union’s fisheries policies have caused in towns like Grimsby. But one of the questions is whether Farage can afford to be spending time away from South Thanet when his chances there are on a knife edge. Ukip has one safe seat, and that’s Douglas Carswell’s. Farage has to win his seat and the polls suggest he

Steerpike Steerpike

Ed Balls on tape admitting his non-dom policy will ‘cost Britain money’

Oh dear – it looks like Labour’s new non-dom policy is unravelling already. Everyone knows that Ed Balls did not abolish non-dom status while in government because he knew that people would scarper. So it would lead to less revenue, less money from the rich – and, ergo, a greater share of the burden to be paid by the poor. So it sounds progressive, but is actually regressive. Balls now denies ever holding such a belief. But Mr S has come across an interview he gave to BBC Radio Leeds just 13 weeks ago:- listen to ‘Ed Balls in January: Abolishing non-dom status would ‘end up costing Britain money’’ on audioBoom  

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 29 days to go

Finally, we have a policy to debate. Ed Miliband has set the agenda for the campaign today with a pledge that Labour would scrap the ‘non-dom’ tax status. After weeks of personal attacks, Miliband has shaken things up a little — but is the announcement already falling apart? To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main stories. 1. No more non-doms In a speech at Warwick University today, Ed Miliband will say ‘there are now 116,000 non-doms, costing hundreds of millions of pounds to our country, it can no longer be justified.’ In short, having non-dom tax status is a way for very wealthy people

Matthew Sinclair

Ed Miliband is deliberately misleading ‘you and me’ on the non-dom rules

When he announced Labour Party proposals for changes to the non-dom rules, Ed Miliband tried very hard to be as misleading as possible without lying. He seems to have failed. He said that non-doms ‘aren’t required to pay taxes like you and me’. They are. Non-doms are required to pay the same UK taxes as the rest of us on their UK income and foreign income remitted to the UK. Most of us don’t have any non-UK income, let alone non-UK income which we do not wish to remit to the UK (regardless of the tax treatment, it would mean we couldn’t spend it here) and therefore we do not

Steerpike Steerpike

Is Ed Balls running scared from debating George Osborne?

When Ed Balls appeared alongside George Osborne on the Andrew Marr Show earlier this year, the Shadow Chancellor told viewers how much he wanted to have a TV debate with the Chancellor. Balls was so keen that he made Osborne shake on a debate live on air. ‘In fact I’d like to go further,’ he cried. ‘George and I do not need the broadcasters to sort things out. George is not a coward.’ Indeed Osborne is not a coward, but could it be that Balls is a chicken? Mr S only asks as word reaches him that plans for a Chancellors’ debate this week have been shelved after Balls demanded

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Ed Miliband pledges to abolish non-dom tax status

Ed Miliband will tomorrow pledge to abolish the non-domicile rule which allows very wealthy people to avoid paying tax on much of their income. The Labour leader will say: ‘There are people who live here in Britain like you and me, work here in Britain like you and me, are permanently settled here in Britain, like you and me, but aren’t required to pay taxes like you and me because they take advantage of what has become an increasingly arcane 200-year-old loophole. There are now 116,000 non-doms, costing hundreds of millions of pounds to our country, it can no longer be justified, and it makes Britain an offshore tax haven

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Three ways the Scottish leaders’ debate will affect the UK general election campaign ​

Tonight’s Scottish debate isn’t going to fundamentally alter the dynamics of this general election campaign in Scotland. But it will reverberate through the UK-wide general election campaign. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron have been left with questions to answer by their Scottish leaders while Nicola Sturgeon has made clear the price she intends to try and extract for supporting a Labour government. In heated exchanges with Sturgeon about the economy, Jim Murphy pointed out that the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that Labour would not need to cut further after 2016. Now, the Labour leadership in London has studiously avoided endorsing this idea. But Miliband and Ed Balls can

Sebastian Payne

Listen: The Spectator’s take on the Scottish leaders’ debates

The Scottish leaders’ debate was, so far, the most informative TV debate of the campaign. In a View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I analyse which party leaders gained the most from this evening’s STV programme. Was the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon successful in defending her party’s record? Did Labour’s Jim Murphy say anything to tempt back the thousands of disaffected Scottish Labour voters? And did the Conservatives’ Ruth Davidson or Liberal Democrats’ Willie Rennie manage to score any points? You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Peter Robins

Where did Ed Miliband get ‘Happy Warrior’ from? (Clue: not Wordsworth)

William Wordsworth, sad to say, may not after all have a significant role in the 2015 election campaign. His name was taken in vain repeatedly this weekend, after someone passed the Sun Ed Miliband’s preparatory notes for the seven-way election debate. Prominent in these were the words ‘Happy Warrior’, which every news source gleefully traced back to Wordsworth’s 1806 poem Character of the Happy Warrior: Who is the happy Warrior? Who is he That every man in arms should wish to be? —It is the generous Spirit, who, when brought Among the tasks of real life, hath wrought Upon the plan that pleased his boyish thought: Whose high endeavours are

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

My night with Nicola Sturgeon

When I watch Nicola Sturgeon exercising her newfound charm and confidence, I experience a pang of intimate regret. Some 15 years ago — when she was a new MSP and the SNP’s shadow education minister — we both appeared on a late-night Scottish television show in Aberdeen, in which guests were invited to defend controversial propositions in front of a live audience of students. My task was to argue that poorer countries should not have their debts forgiven (then the theme of the Millennium ‘Jubilee’ movement, now a key argument about Greece) as a result of misplaced rich-world guilt; needless to say I took a pasting. The future first minister

Robert Smith

Ed Miliband’s popularity is improving – and the Tories should worry

Ed Miliband has long been considered the Conservatives’ main electoral asset. Certainly, Simon Danczuk touched a nerve when he described his party leader as a liability only a fortnight ago. But as the election nears, is the Labour leader beginning to turn his personal fortunes around? Polling from YouGov shows a fascinating trend. Voter approval of Miliband’s performance as Labour leader has improved from a dire state in late-November last year, at net -56%, to the most recent level of -26% last week. With the election campaign underway, a significant chunk of the electorate appear to have given the Labour leader a second look. Indeed, his net approval rating improved by

Sebastian Payne

Ukip may be slipping in the polls but it will still have a big impact on the election

Is the Ukip bandwagon slowing down? Today’s Sun reports that Ukip has lost a quarter of its voters since November, from an average of 16.75 per cent in polls last November to 12.25 per cent in March. As the chart below shows, Ukip’s share of the vote, according to YouGov, has been the slide since the heady days of the Rochester & Strood and Clacton by-elections: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/dEo2g/index.html”] Nigel Farage has even admitted that the march of the people’s army has stalled. But when asked by the Telegraph this afternoon if he was ‘panicking’, he responded ‘good Lord, no!’, claiming the Sun’s figures are a little out: ‘Well – firstly their poll of polls is wrong – the

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

Don’t expect to hear anything about Islamic State during the election campaign

Granted, you don’t really expect foreign policy to feature much in an election campaign – we’re not saints – but it’s still shaming the way that the biggest foreign policy issue simply doesn’t register on the radar right now. I refer obviously to Islamic State, the group that just keeps on giving when it comes to reasons to want them wiped out. It’s a toss up really whether you go for the recently exhumed mass graves of the soldiers they massacred in Tikrit, the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp they seized control of, the images they obligingly posted of themselves smashing artefacts at Hatra or the blowing up an Assyrian church over

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

How Labour can use Europe to stop the Tories

One of the first tasks of a party in our time of fragmented politics is to stop their opponents making alliances. As things stand, the Tories can form a coalition with Ukip (and it tells you all you need to know about David Cameron that he would even consider such a possibility) the Democratic Unionists and the Liberal Democrats. As the Lib Dems are likely to form the largest block, they are the most important target for Labour. You only have to listen to Nick Clegg, say, or Danny Alexander, to suspect that they would rather keep the coalition with Cameron. Why shouldn’t they? They’ve worked together for five years.

Molly Guinness

Bored teenagers are the last people we should be forcing to vote

One of the trendy things to worry about these days is political disengagement among young people. A think tank called the Institute for Public Policy Research is so worried it’s suggested people be forced to vote in the first election after their 18th birthday. They say political apathy among the young is undermining democracy, but their solution is rather perverse. People who are so bored by thinking about the future of the country that they can’t be bothered to vote are the last people we should be consulting on the next government; frankly it’s a relief that so many of the least competent voters keep themselves away from the polling

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Scottish TV debates offer Labour one final chance to hold back the SNP advance

Tonight’s Scottish leaders’ debate in Edinburgh is as important to the general election campaign as last week’s debate featuring Cameron, Miliband et al in Manchester. Both this debate and the second Scottish one tomorrow offer Labour a final opportunity to reverse the SNP advance. The polls indicate that the SNP are on course to take 28 Scottish seats off Labour in May. This would make it the largest Scottish party at Westminster. It would also make it impossible for Ed Miliband to win a majority. At the moment, nothing seems capable of halting the Nationalists’ momentum. The dramatic fall in the oil price, which has upset many of the calculations in the independence white paper,

Steerpike Steerpike

Revealed: Desperate Clegg takes £50,000 in last-minute donations in fight to keep his seat

According to a recent Ashcroft poll, Nick Clegg is on course to lose his seat in the general election. If he is ousted from Sheffield Hallam, the Deputy Prime Minister will follow in the footsteps of the Liberal leaders Archibald Sinclair and Herbert Samuel, who both lost their seats while leading the party. Clegg is of course keen to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself. So keen in fact, that Steerpike can now reveal the desperate lengths the Liberal Democrats leader has gone to in his fight to keep Labour from taking his seat. According to the latest register of interests, Clegg has taken a total of £50,000 in donations since mid-March. In his hour of need, Clegg

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 30 days to go

With the Easter break now over, the general election campaign will notch up a gear today as the political parties try to make the most of the last month of campaigning. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, we’ll be posting a summary every morning of the main events so you know what to expect from the day ahead. 1. Blair’s back — again After a series of cryptic interviews in which he appeared to complain about the direction of the Labour Party, Tony Blair has gone loyal for the campaign. The Guardian reports that the former Prime Minister will be speaking in his old Sedgefield constituency

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Chris Leslie confirms: Ed Miliband is planning more tax rises

There’s something Ed Miliband isn’t telling us. He’d spend more, he says, and tackle the deficit. But how? Almost every tax rise he has announced is intended to raise cash for still more spending – so how would he cope with the fact that the government still needs to borrow 12p for every £1 that it spends? The obvious answer is: tax rises. But Labour has taken great care to avoid being drawn onto that topic. Or had taken great care, until Chris Leslie’s outing on the TV shows today. Leslie, deputy to Ed Balls, is one of the better guys in politics, straight-talking and pretty honest. And today, he told it straight: Labour