2015 general election

Tuesday

Sebastian Payne

Exclusive: watch a preview of the Conservatives’ manifesto launch video

David Cameron will take to the stage in an hour to launch the Conservatives’ 2015 manifesto. Before he does, a short video will roll to introduce the themes of the document. We can bring you a teaser of that video now — watch above. The message in the short clip is based on how the Tories have turned around the economy over the last five years: ‘When Labour left power it left a note. It read: “there is no money”. ‘Five years on, notes of a different kind are turning people’s lives around. Job offers. Lower tax bills. Apprenticeship offers. Mortgage approval letters. Confirmation of school places. ‘These notes are

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

At last, shopping is getting cheaper. Let’s not look this gift horse in the mouth

‘The economy has entered deflation,’ announces the BBC news presenter, as if this was a kind of recession. Au contraire. Shopping bills are shrinking, and this is unalloyed good news. The cost of living has been a problem in recent years, but now petrol prices are plunging and the cost of goods (i.e., shopping) is now 2.1 per cent lower than a year ago. The cost of services is up by 2.4 per cent, so technically that means zero inflation – contra the BBC headline. But the overall point holds: stuff is getting cheaper. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/pICZY/index.html”] The prices of clothing is down month-on-month for the first time since the CPI inflation index was invented.

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 23 days to go

Today, it’s the Conservative Party’s turn to release its manifesto. Labour pushed out its own document ‘Britain can do better’ yesterday, so it’s Tories’ turn to try and better it. As with Labour’s manifesto, the big announcement has already been briefed out and has made the front pages of most newspapers: extending right to buy. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Thatcherism is back Unless the Tories have another big surprise in store, the centre piece of their 2015 manifesto is a pledge to extend right-to-buy for 1.3 million families in housing association homes. The Tories

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Extending right-to-buy is Cameron’s big bazooka. But will it work?  

Just a few weeks ago, David Cameron had not decided whether to extend right-to-buy to a further 1.3 million families in housing association homes. The  idea, from Iain Duncan Smith, was relatively new and carried risks. As all radical policies do – but you can see why Cameron would be worried about this one. Imagine two men, who work next to each other in a factory. One rents privately, the other rents from a housing association and is now offered a massive discount to buy his house: up to £102,700 if he’s in London, £77,000 outside it. He’s is over the moon: his capital gain would  be more than he’d be able to save in a decade

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Nick Clegg on Lib Dem meltdown: ‘I put country before party’

‘Hell, yes, I am proud of this,’ said Nick Clegg in the first of the BBC’s leaders interviews, broadcast at 7.30pm this evening. He’s lucky to get such a slot to list his achievements: the Lib Dems are vying with the Greens for fifth place right now. And he performed pretty well, in my opinion, coming across as decent and reasonable guy, using humour – and even anger, what it was called for. Evan Davis seemed to be out to provoke him. He started by playing the Lib Dem election broadcast where Clegg piously said he was fed up with broken promises, then promised not to increase increase tuition fees. Yes, said Clegg, guilty as charged. Also,

Steerpike Steerpike

Ed Miliband resorts to begging as Labour supporters hiss at hacks

As regular readers will be aware, Mr S has tracked the growing hostility toward the press at Labour Party events. Today’s manifesto launch was no different. The Labour leader took the extraordinary step of pre-butting jeers and boos from audience members toward journalists, by asking them to hear the media out: ‘Now, we’re going to take questions. I just want to say something in advance of these questions. I talked earlier about the kind of country we believe in. And what’s really important in the country we believe in is that we have a press that ask difficult questions and it’s really important that we hear these questions respectfully because

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Music to the SNP’s ears: Vote Labour, get more austerity

As Jim Murphy tries to turn back the SNP surge, he has been arguing that a Labour government wouldn’t result in endless austerity. He has repeatedly cited the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ finding that Labour couldn’t meet its deficit reduction target with no cuts at all after 2015-16. Now, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband have today been clear that Labour will bring in cuts post 2016. But they have avoided contradicting Murphy by name. Chuka Umunna, however, showed no such restraint earlier today. Under questioning from Andrew Neil, he declared: ‘The leader of the Scottish Labour party will not be in charge of the UK Budget.’ This comment was so

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

In defence of the 1 per cent: a Spectator debate

Ed Miliband’s manifesto can be boiled down to the simple act of shaking his fist at the wealthy. Yes, the super-rich can be annoying – but they are also super-taxpayers. Those at the top should shoulder their fair share, Miliband said today. But he didn’t give any figures: if he did, his argument would collapse. The best-paid 1 per cent pay 25 per cent of the income tax: that’s what I call a fair share. And for those who are serious about fairness, it’s a sign that our society has got something right. The super-wealthy are also super-taxpayers. The best-paid 0.1 per cent pay almost twice as much income tax as the lower-paid 50 per cent.  So wealthy

Sebastian Payne

Tories six points ahead in new Guardian/ICM poll — but Ashcroft has the main parties tied

The Guardian declared last Friday was ‘the day the polls turned’ — but they have turned again, it seems. ICM has released a new poll today, which puts the Conservatives six points ahead. This pushes the Tories way past the margin of error to 39 per cent, while are Labour on 33 and the Liberal Democrats jump back into third place at eight per cent. Ukip and the Greens are both tied on seven per cent. It’s an extraordinary number that, if it was repeated across the country — particularly given the rise of the SNP in Scotland — it would put the Conservatives into majority territory for the first time. This

Steerpike Steerpike

Exclusive: David Cameron’s official biographer responds to Lord Ashcroft

This morning Lord Ashcroft wrote a blog post for ConservativeHome detailing information regarding his upcoming biography of David Cameron, Call me Dave. Ashcroft, who is known to have a lukewarm relationship with the Prime Minister, said that the book will be published in the autumn, after the election. He went on to claim that Cameron’s official biography, which is being written by Sir Anthony Seldon, is to be ‘rushed’ out to ‘avoid a clash’ with his own: ‘Apparently he is being encouraged to do so by Number 10. Having originally planned to publish during party conference season, I am told that he now intends to publish at the end of July. Number 10

Sebastian Payne

Ten things you need to know about Labour’s manifesto

Labour has launched its election manifesto in Manchester today, entitled ‘Britain can be better’. The document (pdf here) includes some new policies and others already announced. Here are ten key things you need to know, just in case you don’t have time to read all 86 pages: 1. Reducing deficit every year — but for how long? The centrepiece of the manifesto is the ‘budget responsibility lock’, which will ensure that a Labour government will cut the deficit every year. The commitment, which was reportedly added to the manifesto last Friday, doesn’t say by which point Labour will eliminate the deficit: ‘A Labour government will cut the deficit every year. The first line of

Steerpike Steerpike

Did anyone proofread the Labour manifesto?

‘Do you mind not splitting your infinitives then. Dear me’, said Alastair Campbell to a Tory candidate on Twitter last night. After chastising Beth Prescott, who is standing against Yvette Cooper in Normanton, Campbell was given an earful: .@campbellclaret I’m a young, Northern, former apprentice trying to make a positive difference&best you can do is patronise me?@LouiseMensch — Beth Prescott (@Beth4Pontefract) April 13, 2015 Ouch. While we are on the topic of perfect grammar, shall we have a look at Labour’s manifesto? The one that Campbell has been spinning all day. ‘We are a great country’ says the foreword. Britain is a great country, yes. We are the people of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why Labour’s bold manifesto move won’t work

Labour’s manifesto is the most daring move of this campaign so far. The party has decided to try and address one of its biggest weaknesses on page 1 of the document. The decision to make Labour’s fiscal locks, its attempt to show that it is fiscally credible, the major story of the manifesto is a risk. It means that Labour is playing on Tory turf. The party’s hope is that these fiscal locks can reassure voters that Labour wouldn’t spend and borrow too much, removing one of the main obstacles to supporting them. Indeed, with Ed Miliband doing a far better job than expected of assuaging voters’ doubts about his

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Is Labour really wise to take on the Tories on the economy?

Ed Miliband gave a good, forceful, well-received speech at Labour’s manifesto launch this morning. It couldn’t have been anything else, given how close we are to polling day. There were some very well-delivered moments, particularly when it came to zero hours contracts and non-doms. The peroration was particularly energetic, with the Labour leader saying: ‘Over the last four and a half years, I have been tested. It is right that I have been. Tested for the privilege of leading this country. I am ready. Ready to put an end to the tired old idea that as long as we look after the rich and powerful we will all be OK.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

When will broadcasters challenge Ed Balls on his porkies about his deficit plans?

At Coffee House, we occasionally criticise George Osborne for stretching the truth when describing the deficit — but when it comes to hoodwinking broadcasters and deceiving voters, Ed Balls is the master. Three times on the radio today he lied about Labour’s plans, saying that he intends to have the national debt falling. He has no such plans: what he means is that he plans for the national debt to rise, but to rise more slowly than the economy is growing. What he means is that his plan is not for the debt to fall, but for a ratio to fall: the debt/GDP ratio. And it isn’t very ambitious, because that ratio already is falling. listen to ‘Today:

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 24 days to go

The third week of the campaign is going to be all about manifestos. Today, it’s Labour’s turn to launch its plan — while the Tories, Liberal Democrats, Ukip and Greens will take their turns in the coming days. But instead of the traditional strategy for government, folks in Westminster are describing the documents as ‘the opening salvo for coalition negotiations’. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The party of fiscal responsibility? There’s one big story to watch today: Labour’s manifesto. Many inhabitants of the Westminster bubble are currently en route to Manchester for the launch this

Sunday

Louise Cooper

The truth behind David Cameron’s new inheritance tax policy

David Cameron’s new Inheritance tax policy is clearly an important political message of aspiration and family values rather than a policy that will either help many or actually have much fiscal impact. The OBR has numbers on death rates and estates subject to the tax: just under 600,000 people died in 2013/14 and only 5 per cent of those had estates that were liable to inheritance tax. So that is just over 26,000 deaths in one year whose estates paid inheritance tax. According to the Telegraph, Cameron’s policy would only begin in 2017, two years into the next parliament. So three years of this policy and on 2013/14 rates this

Michael Ashcroft

It’s now too late for Tories (or Labour) to change what people think about them

My most recent constituency polling has found an increase in support for Labour and the Conservatives (and, in their own battlegrounds, the Liberal Democrats) while the UKIP share has drifted down since last year. Even so, neither of the main parties has established a clear overall lead, either in national polling or in the marginals. So while the evidence is that voters may be focusing more on the parties capable of forming a government, they are not finding the choice becoming any easier – or more palatable. [datawrapper chart=”http://cf.datawrapper.de/PgOJF/3/”] The latest large-scale national polling I have conducted on the impact of the campaign helps explain why. Over the last month,

Saturday

Steerpike

The Sun gets cold feet about Labour

Earlier this month the Sun‘s election website ran a story about their plans to back Labour. In the online article, they teased that the paper was backing Labour, something which would come as a shock given that their owner Rupert Murdoch has an ongoing feud with Ed Miliband. IT’S OFFICIAL: We’re first out of the traps… http://t.co/nmQZX3lzAJ #SunNation pic.twitter.com/Tr4oxLI8x5 — Tim Gatt (@TimGatt) April 2, 2015 However, upon further reading of the article it became clear that instead of backing Miliband in the general election, they were simply supporting a rather dashing mutt called Labour in a greyhound race. Now word reaches Steerpike that little Labour had originally been meant for greater stardom than a fleeting mention. In fact, Mr S’s

Friday

Robert Smith

Deficit? What deficit? Labour candidates ignore key issue

Ed Miliband famously forgot to mention the deficit in his 2014 conference speech, but you would have thought that at least some prospective Labour MPs consider it to be a crucial issue facing Britain. The country is, after all, spending £46bn a year on debt interest payments alone – the equivalent of the Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office budgets combined. But not so, according to new research presented at a briefing by Ipsos MORI this morning. The pollster interviewed new prospective parliamentary candidates from each of the four main parties – all standing in marginal or safe seats – and asked them to name their political priorities. Of the