2015 general election

Do Labour voters hate the SNP enough to save the Lib Dems?

For someone who might be about to lose her seat, Jo Swinson seems very perky as she walks the streets of Bishopbriggs in her constituency. The Lib Dem, who is standing for re-election in East Dunbartonshire in Scotland, is busy trying to persuade people who have received their postal votes this week to back her. The weather is sunny and warm and the Business and Equalities Minister cheerful, but the outlook isn’t quite so good when you take a glance at the numbers. A poll by Lord Ashcroft last week put the SNP on 40 per cent, with Swinson trailing behind on 29 per cent. That’s a 19.5 per cent

Isabel Hardman

Ed Miliband thinks Libya’s failure is so obvious he’s barely mentioned it until now

With less than two weeks until polling day, it’s nice to see that Ed Miliband has discovered foreign policy as an important issue worth discussing. The Labour leader will attack the Tories today on a failure of post-conflict planning for Libya which has contributed to the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean. The Conservatives have decided to get very cross about this, claiming that the overnight briefing on this included Labour spinners saying the Tory party was responsible for the deaths. They have decided to make this about Miliband’s fitness to be Prime Minister. Liz Truss called his speech ‘absolutely offensive’, ‘outrageous and disgraceful’, and said ‘Ed Miliband feels like he’s

Campaign kick-off: 13 days to go

For the first time in this campaign, foreign affairs are not only being discussed but also dominating today’s agenda. Ed Miliband is set to criticise the coalition’s record on foreign policy, putting at least some of the blame for the Libyan migrant crisis on David Cameron. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The Libya blame game At Chatham House this morning, Ed Miliband will deliver a speech on Britain’s international role and responsibilities. Before Miliband has even taken to the podium, a row has broken out over whether he is accusing the government of abandoning

Steerpike

Coffee Shots: Liberal Democrats struggle with the small print

As the Liberal Democrats fight for survival in the general election, word reaches Mr S that things in the yellow camp may be even more dire than first thought. Mr S received this Lib Dem leaflet from one of his sources, the small print of which seems totally incomprehensible. Surely things can’t be so bad that the party can no longer afford spaces between words? As you can see, it’s pretty hard to read: Even when you get closer: And closer: Mr S is getting election fatigue just looking at it. Maybe it’s just best not to read the small print.

Tories ahead by 4pts in two new polls — and Farage is on course to win South Thanet

The opinion polls almost veered towards a trend today. ComRes/Daily Mail report in their latest poll that the Conservatives are four points ahead on 36 per cent, while Labour is on 32 per cent. Survation/Daily Mirror also put the Tories four points ahead on 33 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent. Alternatively, the latest YouGov/Sun poll has Labour two points ahead on 35 per cent and Tories on 33 per cent. With two weeks to go till polling day, it’s still very tight and no one has a notable lead. While the Conservative lead in the ComRes and Survation polls edges outside of the margin of error, the movements in these polls are still within three

James Forsyth

Tristram Hunt: Education Secretaries can send their kids private

In the Daily Politics education debate just now on the BBC, Tristram Hunt declared that it was acceptable for an Education Secretary to send their own child to private school. Under questioning from Andrew Neil, Hunt said that it was fine in ‘certain circumstances.’ The other members of the panel—including Nicky Morgan and David Laws—then agreed with Hunt’s statement. Is it acceptable for an education secretary to send their child to a private school @afneil asks his #bbcdp panel? https://t.co/A5VI9mnHlz — DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) April 23, 2015 Hunt’s remarks are politically brave. Those on the hard left will take issue with his statement as they did with Ruth Kelly, who

The Conservatives are strategising regional media out of the grid – and it won’t help their cause

This has, I think we can all agree, been the most stage-managed election ever. Nobody on a soap box, no punches thrown, no bigoted women. Just a seamless marathon of national messaging that starts with the Today programme and ends with Newsnight. It is the regional media, however, that feels the iron grip of the parties’ media machines the most. We work where voters actually live. So how we are treated during political visits can be revealing. And Labour, most regional reporters seem to agree, seem to have chilled out. Ed Miliband and other senior Labour figures are freely giving up their time. We do get asked what sort of

Isabel Hardman

Breaking: Politician spotted talking to a real voter

I’ve just witnessed an extraordinary moment on the campaign trail in Edinburgh. No, it’s not this, but a political party leader talking to a real voter. This is Ruth Davidson, Tory leader, talking to a random voter in Edinburgh. I know he was a random voter because I ran after him to check. You never know, after all. He wanted to ask Davidson some questions about migrants drowning in the Mediterranean. So he wandered up to her and asked them. And she answered. What’s more, the answer seemed natural, he said. Well, this is strange. Strange, at least, for this campaign. The reason the Tories in Scotland are doing these

Fraser Nelson

At last, tax receipts are surging as Osborne’s recovery continues

The economic good news continues. Until now, the Achilles’ heel of the recovery was weak tax revenue – in part deliberate, as Osborne’s tax cuts meant the thousands moving into work got to keep more of their money. But figures out today (pdf) show that the tax haul was up 5.3 per cent in the second half of the financial year, twice the rate of the first half. Wages are finally rising – in the private sector (i.e. most jobs) wage growth is at a six-year high. All this means a deficit of £87bn last year, better than the OBR’s forecast £90bn. In short: it’s all coming good for George

Isabel Hardman

Jim Murphy rallies Labour activists in Edinburgh

Jim Murphy held a street rally in Edinburgh today. Given many of the election events from the main parties have been behind closed doors, the Scottish Labour leader deserves credit for pitching up right outside the Scottish National Gallery and standing for about an hour in a space where real genuine members of the public were walking.  He was, of course, protected by a rubber ring of activists wearing T-shirts with key Scottish Labour pledges on it, such as ending exploitative zero hours contracts and lowering tuition fees. They had placards with #toriesout splashed across them. And given the rally was secret and only advertised to the media before it

James Forsyth

The polls could decide the fate of the Lib Dems

A Lib Dem West Country MP told me at the start of the year that he thought his party would keep his seat if the Tories were broadly ahead in the national polls on polling day but lose it if they were level or behind. His thinking was that if it looked like Cameron was going to continue as Prime Minister his constituents would both feel it was safe to vote for a local champion and would want some protection against the Tories cutting public services too far. But if the Tories were behind, he feared that these swing voters would feel that they had to vote Tory to try

Steerpike

Image from Islington: Lib Dems troll Emily Thornberry

It’s St George’s Day today, and presumably Labour’s Emily Thornberry is out looking for ‘amazing’ houses draped in English flags. To help her out (in a way), her Lib Dem rival in Islington Terry Stacy has decided to put this about as his election address: Mr Steerpike is very keen for any other election candidates showing off quite how comfortable they are with flags.

Isabel Hardman

Boris is being careful with his dinner invitations

One of the main risks of wheeling Boris out this week was that he was never just going to be asked about this election in interviews. The Mayor and candidate for Uxbridge ended up saying ‘in the dim and distant future, it would be a wonderful thing to be thought to be in a position to be considered for such an honour’ when asked about becoming Tory leader. He knows as well as anyone else that the way this campaign is going, that this ‘wonderful thing’ might get underway within a month, or indeed in the more distant future. His allies in Parliament have been very careful to refrain from

Isabel Hardman

Why identikit lines on the SNP are important for the Tories

This morning when George Osborne defended the way the Tories were fighting the election campaign, there was something slightly odd about what he said in response to John Humphrys’ first question: ‘We’re two weeks to go to this election and it’s coming down to a very clear choice on the economy, and on 8 May we can either get straight back to work with a clear plan that is delivering for our country or we face this deeply unstable Miliband/SNP government committed to much more borrowing, and that leads to a dangerous cocktail which increasingly, international investors say will lead to higher mortgage rates, higher taxes and lost jobs, and

Is Ukip painting itself as the SNP of the south?

Ukip kicked off St George’s Day by pledging to make today a national holiday. Although early morning press conferences have been abandoned by the other political parties, Ukip turned out the media bright and early to talk about patriotism and promised to make St George’s and St David’s Day national holidays. The party’s cultural spokesman Peter Whittle said they wanted to tackle the ‘cultural self-loathing’ Ukip believes has developed over Englishness. It was pointed out to Whittle that St George was an immigrant himself — from Turkey — but Ukip apparently wouldn’t have a problem with him entering Britain because he would be a ‘skilled migrant’, being able to slay

Podcast: the passion of David Cameron and whether 2015 will be another 1992

Should David Cameron be showing more passionate in this election campaign? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss their interview with the Prime Minister in the magazine this week and whether Cameron is feeling optimistic about his reelection chances. Was the PM open about his apparent failure to sell the successes of this government to voters? Will Cameron convince the country that he really does want a second term? And with two weeks to go, is the election a done deal? Matthew Parris and Martin Vander Weyer also look back at the 1992 election campaign and whether the Tories can hope for a similar last

Exclusive: Ukip slams ‘terrible’ ComRes poll of ten ‘target seats’

The Ukip fox may have entered the Westminster henhouse but how many more chickens will it kill? ComRes has released a new poll revealing that Ukip is trailing in third place in ‘ten Conservative-held seats which Ukip have targeted’. Across the polled seats, the Tories are on 39 per cent, Labour on 28 and Ukip trailing on 21. While the latter party’s vote share has increased by 15 per cent since 2010, ComRes’s findings suggests they will struggle to win thanks to the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote. According to the poll, a quarter of Lib Dem voters in these seats say they will now back Labour and 21 per

Chris Leslie makes ‘no apology’ for Labour’s focus on the current budget deficit

Senior Labour figures have looked uncomfortable during this campaign when speaking of their own party’s policy on balancing the books – the day-to-day spending books, that is. But this afternoon Chris Leslie gave an endorsement of the pledge that is as clear and enthusiastic as voters are likely to get. Challenged by Andrew Neil on today’s Daily Politics debate on the economy, the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury said he made ‘no apologies’ for his party’s focus on clearing the current budget deficit, rather than the overall deficit. Leslie said: ‘The distinction is this…having a balance on the current budget is not the limit of our ambitions. We believe

Steerpike

Exclusive: UKIP donor already organising South Thanet victory party

Nigel Farage has fought off accusations that he’s an invisible candidate in South Thanet, claiming to have held more public meetings than all of the other candidates put together. But are Ukip getting ahead of themselves in the ultra-tight race on the Kent coast? Mr S hears that invitations are already circulating for an election night party in the constituency, hosted by fun-loving donor Arron Banks. Organising the victory party two weeks out from polling day looks complacent at best. Sources familiar with party planning have revealed to Mr S that the multi-millionaire tycoon has invited people to join him in the constituency on election night and drinks will certainly