All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
As things stand, the number of MPs who have come out publicly to say they will back Theresa May in a confidence vote is enough to keep her in place. However, given that it is a secret ballot and there are still five hours to go until that vote, plenty could change between now and
The world of business is, apparently, appalled by the actions of the 48 or more Conservative MPs who have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader. According to the Institute of Directors, its members are ‘tearing their hair out’ over today’s news. The message seems to be that a change
The sense in Westminster this morning is that Theresa May will win tonight’s confidence vote. So, as is the way, the conversation has immediately moved on to what would be a good result for her. Cabinet ministers are busy saying that a win is a win, whatever the margin. One points out to me that
It may be a terrible day for Theresa May, but the signs so far seem to suggest that she’s at least going to win her upcoming no confidence vote. Four of the bookmakers: Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Betway and Betfair now suggest that the Prime Minister has an 80 per cent chance of convincing her MPs to
Two Tory MPs who are currently suspended from the party whip could be brought back in order to take part in today’s vote of no confidence against Theresa May, 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady revealed this morning. Briefing journalists on the vote, Brady said he was waiting for confirmation from the Chief Whip of the
Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into
It’s all out war in the Conservative party today, and as you would expect, things are already getting a little heated between Tory MPs. The rift between colleagues backing Theresa May and those calling for her to go was very apparent on BBC news this morning, where Brexiteer and letter submitter Andrew Bridgen was talking
Tory MPs should vote for Theresa May in tonight’s confidence vote. Keeping her in place will be painful, difficult and lead to any number of awful problems. But it is far, far better than the horrors that will follow if they remove her. Even if you can, like Owen Paterson, blithely gloss over the fact
Theresa May has just given a defiant speech outside Downing Street in which she promised to ‘contest’ the confidence vote with ‘everything’ that she’s got. On the news that 48 confidence letters had been received by 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady, the Prime Minister said the only people a Tory leadership contest would benefit right
It’s official, 48 letters of no confidence have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, triggering a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister this evening. If she loses this, she will be required to stand down and a Conservative leadership election will begin. As James reports on Coffee House,
Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May’s decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit
With just a few moments to go until voting closes, 181 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May in the vote of confidence. Given that May needs 159 votes, their support should be enough to keep her position safe. But given that this is a secret ballot, are they as good as their word? Here is
The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening. If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another
In the last few moments it has been confirmed that a leadership contest against Theresa May has been triggered. The number of letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister needed to lead to a vote – 48 – is believed to have been met last night. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory
Even before the result of the Tory no confidence vote was announced, the mood in Committee Room 14 was rather jovial. Chief Whip Julian Smith appeared minutes before the result, looking both exhausted and happy. Nerves were sufficiently calm for someone to crack a joke in the pause between Sir Graham Brady arriving and him
One of the factors that led to the triggering of a no confidence vote and that will play a huge part in the result of that vote is the way in which Number 10 has shredded its credibility in the past few days. It isn’t just the way in which Theresa May’s press operation pushed
Emmanuel Macron spoke to the French people for thirteen minutes on Monday evening. It was an uncharacteristically sombre address from the president, one in which he admitted he had to take his ‘share of responsibility’ for the anger that provoked the yellow vest movement. As well as conceding he ‘might have hurt people with my
The so-called People’s Vote campaign have today held an event on the need for a vote on the final Brexit deal. The screen for the event is emblazoned with a new slogan: ‘If not now, when?’ – in an attempt to argue there’s no time like the present. I’m at a @peoplesvote_uk event, the morning
Poor old Theresa May. The PM is hopping across Europe in a desperate bid to try and salvage her Brexit deal. But quite predictably things aren’t going well. After arriving in Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, Theresa May got off to a bad start – by getting locked in her car. Mr S is pleased
John Bercow gave Labour MPs a helping hand in the Commons yesterday by making his thoughts known on the Government’s decision to delay a vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Speaker said the hold-up was ‘deeply discourteous’. But it seems he hasn’t stopped his mission of making life tricky for the Tories. Philip Hammond
Spare a thought for us foreigners. We’re desperately trying to understand the meaning of the Brexit arguments being thrown around in the House of Commons. We all have our own countries too, so we view those arguments through the lens of our homelands. So here are a few reflections on how we react. Theresa May’s deal
How painfully clear it is what happens next. Theresa May returns from her European travels with some kind of non legally-binding piece of paper saying that the EU would rather not enact the backstop if it can possibly avoid it, and, some time in January we finally have the crushing Commons defeat that we should
Theresa May is on a tour of European capitals today, while Olly Robbins was spotted back in Brussels yesterday. But it isn’t Robbins who May should have sent to Brussels but Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. May’s problem right now isn’t technical but parliamentary, how to get the withdrawal deal through the Commons. It isn’t
I started my first job at Westminster in 1994, more than half a lifetime ago. Almost all of my career has been spent watching politicians, talking to politicians, writing about politicians. I covered the case for war in Iraq and the war’s dismal descent into failure. I was part of the Telegraph team writing about
It’s the lowest point in British espionage since Pierce Brosnan. A top secret cyber hit squad has been busted trying to undermine Jeremy Corbyn through the medium of Twitter. At least that’s the claim from the Sunday Mail, a left-leaning Scottish tabloid, which has exposed the Institute for Statecraft as ‘a secret UK Government-funded infowars
Like everyone nowadays, I can predict everything except the future. But if MPs reject the government’s Withdrawal Agreement (whenever it ends up being put before the Commons), there is one outcome that many are campaigning for: a second referendum. It is particularly supported by Remainers, who see it as the only democratically legitimate way to
UPDATE: 48 letters of no confidence have now been reached. It’s been four long weeks since the last rebellion against Theresa May, when the ERG and Brexiteers fell short of the numbers they needed to trigger a leadership election. Now, it’s being reported that Tory MPs have had enough, and are once again submitting letters
The talk in Tory circles this evening is that the 48 letters are in. Two putative leadership campaigns are saying they are. But, perhaps more significantly, so is one close ally of the Prime Minister. There has, though, been no word from Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. However, we wouldn’t expect
Whether a “Remainer” or a “Leaver”, no-one welcomes chaos. So it is time for everyone to reflect and consider. Time to turn to reality – not fiction. Reason – not ideology. We need to calm the markets. We need to protect the economic wellbeing of the British people. We need to protect our national interest.
How can MPs trust what ministers say after the Brexit fiasco of the past few days? That’s been the theme of the Commons emergency debate on the meaningful vote so far, with phrases like ‘shredded her credibility’ being bandied about. Initially, the most stinging criticism came from opposition MPs, but those MPs are not the
Even before today’s announcement that the Brexit vote would be pulled, a number of media leaks indicated the EU’s plan in case of a parliamentary defeat. According to Reuters, the EU had been planning to concede a number of cosmetic changes. However, those changes would not be made to the withdrawal agreement, but only to
Given that the ECJ often takes years to give an opinion, the speed of its Brexit judgement is unprecedented. Now and again, the mask slips: in theory the ECJ’s court judicial, cares only about good law. In practise this is nakedly political – explicitly so this time, given the vote tomorrow. It’s being breathlessly reported
It’s been a day of high emotions in the House of Commons after Theresa May moved to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal. With Brexiteers, the SNP and Labour MPs distinctly unimpressed at the move, it all got a bit too much for one MP this evening in the Chamber. Step forward Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
Oh dear. It’s been a testing day for Her Majesty’s government after Theresa May decided to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal in order to avoid a humiliating defeat. The problem is no-one bothered to tell May’s so-called inner circle and just hours before the vote was pulled Michael Gove was sent on the
