Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Should NATO help America defend the Strait of Hormuz?

As soon as Operation Epic Fury, America’s latest campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran, got underway on the last day of February, political, military and economic minds around the world should have turned their attention to the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway provided the only shipping route from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open seas beyond. That has long made the strait the dagger Iran holds at the throat of the world. At its narrowest, it is less than 25 miles across, and Iran controls the northern shore; to the south is the Musandam Peninsula, shared by the United Arab Emirates and an exclave of Oman.

NATO STRAIT

Iran’s first gayatollah?

Something queer’s afoot in the Islamic Republic. As Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader last week, reports emerged that his own father, the late ayatollah Ali Khamenei, didn’t want him to take power and even went as far as making this explicit in his will, according to the New York Post. Now, the Post reveals that his father’s qualms were over Mojtaba’s alleged sexual attraction to men.  When President Trump was briefed that Mojtaba may be gay, he “couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud” while others in the room joined in his reaction, sources close to the intelligence community and the White House told the Post.

Good riddance Rene Redzepi

Last week, Rene Redzepi – often credited as having created the world’s greatest restaurant – stepped down amid explosive allegations of abuse. In my view, if the allegations of physical brutality are true, he should face criminal charges. Redzepi, founder and proprietor of Noma in Copenhagen, founded in 2003, wrote on Instagram about the recent revelations regarding his own past leadership: "I have worked to be a better leader and Noma has taken big steps to transform the culture over many years. I recognize these changes do not repair the past. An apology is not enough; I take responsibility for my own actions." Not so long ago, such behavior would have been routine, expected and even glorified in a high-end kitchen.

Oscars night was one yawn after another

The results of this year’s Oscars were so predictable as to be entirely unexciting. Months ago, the pundits had called the major results: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Pynchon adaptation One Battle After Another to win Best Film and Best Director, Jessie Buckley to win Best Actress for Hamnet, Sinners to win Best Original Screenplay. It wasn't hard to predict because they had won these prizes in ceremony after ceremony. And so, last night in Los Angeles, events unfolded with the grim pre-ordination of awards voters who had seen what they liked and liked what they saw. The results of this year’s Oscars were so predictable as to be entirely unexciting There were, admittedly, a couple of interesting stories, but they took place long before the ceremony.

How the Nazis used vanity to lure pilots to their deaths

"Vanity of vanities... all is vanity." Ecclesiastes had a point, but he never met a Luftwaffe fighter pilot. For the young Germans who hurled their Messerschmitts at enemy planes over the Channel, the Reich, and the Eastern Front, there was one object that could make them forget their odds of survival: a small iron cross, worn at the throat, called the Ritterkreuz – the Knight's Cross. To many, it was worth more than money, more than leave, more than the quiet relief of making it home in one piece. It meant you were the best. And everyone could see it.

Semiconductors

How Iran could end the AI boom

While Americans anxiously watch the price of gasoline tick higher as the war in the Middle East squeezes the global oil supply, the conflict has highlighted another energy vulnerability that could prove just as costly: Taiwan’s dependency on foreign natural gas. At first blush, energy issues an ocean away seem peripheral to American interests. They are anything but. Though the effect on the American economy won’t be immediate, energy insecurity in Taiwan is a looming disaster. Qatar, the source of 30 percent of Taiwan’s natural gas, has been effectively bottled up The reason is that AI – in fact, virtually all modern computing – is highly reliant upon the steady production of semiconductors in the world’s only true hub, Taiwan.

Is Keir Starmer really, truly sorry about Peter Mandelson?

Sir Keir Starmer wants everyone to know how sorry, really sorry, he is for giving Lord Mandelson the job of Ambassador to the United States. On a visit to Belfast yesterday, the British Prime Minister issued his latest and perhaps most abject mea culpa so far. It came just hours after the publication of embarrassing government documents detailing the process (or more accurately, the lack of one) that existed when it came to appointing the now disgraced peer to the plum diplomatic role in Washington. Sir Keir told reporters:   The release of the information shows what was known. That led to further questions being asked…But that doesn’t take away from the fact that it was me that made a mistake, and it’s me that makes the apology to the victims of Epstein, and I do that.

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How the Islamic Republic tried – and failed – to destroy Iranian culture

The Islamic Republic in Iran is not only at war with the United States and Israel. For years, the country's government has been waging war on Iranian culture. Music, poetry, storytelling, dogs, dancing, singing, art, dice and card games, romance, tolerance and the honoring of women are central to Persian culture and its ancient history. Yet under the Islamic Republic, these cherished expressions are banned or stigmatized, especially when pursued by women. The departure of Iran’s enlightened and educated from the country they love is one of the most poignant brain drains in history In the dark, dystopian times immediately following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, couples holding hands or a man so much as looking at a woman could lead to arrest, or worse.

War on Iran was not ‘unprovoked’

I’ve been thinking a lot about the phrase "unprovoked war." It’s been rolling off leftist tongues since the explosion of hostilities in Iran. This week, Jeremy Corbyn, Zarah Sultana and scores of hoary peaceniks wrote a letter to the Guardian insisting Britain should have nothing to do with America and Israel’s "unprovoked war" in Iran. Trump’s noisy doubters and Israel’s legion haters are using language as a weapon Here’s my question: is the rape and murder of Jews not a provocation? Was the worst anti-Jewish atrocity since the Holocaust – 7 October – not a provocation? The tyrants of Tehran were the paymasters of the jihadist brutes who carried out that slaughter.

Thomas Massie

The problem with Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie’s predicament, as he fends off a Trump-backed challenger – and Trump himself – in the Republican primary for his seat in Congress, is symbolic of the vexed relationship libertarians have with the right these days. Massie was not only a Tea Party Republican when he was first elected in 2012, he was a Ron Paul Republican, inspired by the longtime, philosophically libertarian Texas congressman who made his second bid for the GOP presidential nomination that year. The Commonwealth of Kentucky had sent Paul’s son, Rand, to the US Senate two years before, and its 4th congressional district put Massie in the House. Libertarians are natural junior partners in someone else’s enterprise ​Now Trump is trying to take him out.

My take on marry me chicken

I am not in the habit of bringing viral TikTok recipes here. It is a safe space, away from digestive biscuits submerged in yogurt masquerading as cheesecake, baked oats, or sugary instant coffee whipped up like foam (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, ignorance is bliss). No, here we are in the realm of tried-and-tested vintage recipes. So why am I letting marry me chicken into this sacred place? For the uninitiated, it first popped up a decade ago on an American food website called Delish, but it became the most-searched recipe on the New York Times in 2023. It’s a simple concept: chicken cooked in a creamy, tomatoey sauce that is so delicious that the person to whom you serve it will get down on one knee.

marry me chicken

The right’s Israel fracture

As the joint American-Israeli military campaign in Iran continues, President Trump’s coalition is starting to exhibit some cracks. The war in Iran has emerged as a proxy battle over a broader, long-simmering conflict within the right about Israel. And the fight over Israel is, in some important ways, a proxy battle about Jews in general. Big picture, what we’re seeing now is that the traditional divisions on the right between paleoconservatives and neoconservatives, between hawks and doves, are being reshaped into a battle over Israel specifically. It’s a very difficult subject; this issue has become highly emotional and personal for those on both sides, and even in my world, it’s set friends against one another. How far do the emerging divisions go, and how should we respond?

The Iran war has exposed the world’s maritime chokepoint

The war with Iran is exposing a vulnerability at the heart of the global gas market: the extraordinary concentration of liquefied natural gas supply in the Persian Gulf. Qatar alone accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG exports, almost all of it passing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has illustrated how easily a single maritime chokepoint could interrupt a significant share of the world’s gas trade. Even if the war ends soon, the vulnerability it has exposed will not disappear President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict may soon end, describing the campaign as largely achieved and possibly over "very soon." The Gulf monarchies also appear eager for a quick resolution, even as they continue to face missile and drone attacks.

‘We don’t know what’s going on or why we’re doing this’: how Trump’s Iran gamble backfired

"Donald Trump is a complicated person with simple ideas," said Kellyanne Conway, the former White House senior counselor. "Way too many politicians are the exact opposite." It’s a good way of understanding the 45th and 47th President and his extraordinary success. His turbulent personality causes mayhem, yet his political aims have remained constant, straightforward and popular. Decades ago, as a New York tycoon with a keen eye on international affairs, he identified three priorities for America: tackle the nation’s trade imbalances, force NATO allies to spend more on defense, and destroy terrorists. When it comes to realizing those simple ideas, however, his more complex attributes emerge.

Australia finally did right by Iran’s brave women’s soccer players

In 1989, as tanks rolled into central Beijing to crush the pro-democracy protest in Tiananmen Square, Australia’s then prime minister, Bob Hawke, spontaneously offered asylum to all Chinese citizens who happened to be in Australia. Thousands took up his offer and made lasting contributions to the country that gave them shelter. Last Tuesday, the women showed personal courage by taking a silent but very public stand against a regime that stops at nothing to punish open disloyalty On Tuesday, Hawke’s successor, Anthony Albanese, granted five women of Iran’s national soccer team asylum, and offered it to all those in the team’s party.

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Will Trump avoid Bush’s Iraq mistakes?

26 min listen

President Trump has signaled that the Middle East war could be "over ​soon" and pledged to lift sanctions after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Freddy is joined by Jacob Heilbrunn and Robert Bryce to discuss why Trump was potentially unprepared for Iran's retaliation, what could come from the talks with Putin, and why Britain can only get their energy prices down by drilling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Will Iran scupper King Charles’s US state visit?

In April, King Charles is scheduled to visit the United States to mark 250 years since America achieved its independence. Given that Britain has hosted President Trump twice – once in each term – it seemed a relatively easy piece of reciprocity. Pageantry, pomp, the King and Queen smiling and waving a lot, photo opportunities with the President, Vice President and anyone else who wants something to show their grandchildren, and little of any lasting worth achieved. How things change. Now, after the beginning of the Iran war, there is a growing groundswell of support on both sides of the Atlantic for the state visit to be postponed, if not canceled altogether.

King Charles

Can Trump defeat Senate Republicans over the SAVE Act?

I know that the world is focused on Iran but here’s what President Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday about the so-called “SAVE Act” (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility): "It supersedes everything else. MUST GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE. I, as President, will not sign other Bills until this is passed, AND NOT THE WATERED DOWN VERSION – GO FOR THE GOLD: MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. & PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS EXCEPT FOR MILITARY – ILLNESS, DISABILITY, TRAVEL."The original bill, introduced by Senator Mike Lee way back in January 2025, has undergone a few enhancements at the hands of Senator Lee's colleagues, but the core desideratum is simple: that American elections must be secure, i.e., only those entitled to vote should be allowed to vote.

John Thune

Why the Venezuela model would be a disaster for Iran

What next for Iran? Donald Trump appears to have a plan: the Venezuela model. The US president has hinted that, just as with the South American nation, he wants to try working with elements inside the existing regime, rather than backing exiled opposition figures. The biggest massacres in Iran’s recent history happened under so-called reformers "We have a formula, Venezuela, smart country," he said this week. "We've taken out 100 million barrels of oil which is now in Houston...being taken care of and made so beautiful in refineries." But if Trump really is planning on copying his playbook for Venezuela in Iran, he should be warned: it will be a disaster. Why? Because, put simply, the Islamic Republic idolizes death over rational thinking.

Trump has been caught flat-footed on Iran

Donald Trump has become something of a sole man. His cabinet members and White House visitors report that the president has developed a penchant for handing out $145 Florsheim shoes in an effort to up their sartorial game. In his Life of Johnson, Boswell reported that Dr. Johnson recoiled at an “eleemosynary supply” of shoes as an impecunious student at Christ Church, Oxford and threw them away with indignation. Trump’s followers have no such freedom of action. “All the boys have them,” one official told the Wall Street Journal, which ran a picture of his administration leaders obediently lined up and wearing the same shiny black leather numbers.

Alberta

Will Alberta become the 51st state?

Albertans are very good at keeping things that damage their prosperity out of their province. Take rats, for instance. The vermin were designated an agricultural menace in the1950s and after 18 months of chemical warfare Alberta – which is the same size as Texas – was declared rat-free. Today a poison-laced buffer zone with Saskatchewan province and a vigilant population stops their return.The leaders of the resurgent Alberta independence campaign have identified a new set of damaging pests to keep out: the federal government in Ottawa and its new ally the Chinese government.

The Iran war is just what Putin’s depleted coffers need

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow's public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a "reckless step" and a "dangerous adventure." Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely to be: Russia needs its drones and missiles for Ukraine.

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What Timothée Chalamet gets wrong about opera and ballet

In February, Timothée Chalamet said to his fellow actor Matthew McConaughey, as part of a CNN and Variety town hall: "I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera or things that are, hey, let’s keep this thing alive even though it’s like no one cares about this thing anymore." The studio audience laughed along with Chalamet, while McConaughey weighed in with, "yeah, yeah, yeah, we hear you." Perhaps realizing the offense he was causing, Chalamet added, "with all due respect to the ballet and opera people out there, I just lost 14 cents in viewership." Two weeks passed before the video of this went viral, leading to widespread condemnation of Chalamet’s remarks by those in the ballet world.

Putin is enjoying the Iran war

After Iran unleashed a torrent of missiles against its neighbors – including those with whom it had enjoyed friendly relations such as Turkey and Azerbaijan – few regional leaders are in the mood to congratulate the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Few, but not none. "At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your work in this high office will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication," wrote Vladimir Putin in an official message of congratulation to Khamenei Junior. "I am confident that you will honorably continue your father’s legacy and unite the Iranian people in the face of these severe trials.

Can the US Navy really defend the Strait of Hormuz?

George W. Bush’s war haunts Donald Trump, who is now calling the Iranian operation a “little excursion”. But Iran differs from Iraq in one significant way: Bush spent years fending off accusations that he had invaded for oil, whereas Trump wholeheartedly embraces the idea. In fact, he doesn’t even need to invade a country to get oil flowing.  “I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply,” he said. “And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level,” he said at his golf club in Miami, Florida, last night.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 7: U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Miami International Airport on March 7, 2026. President Trump returned to Miami after attending the Dignified Transfer of six US soldiers killed in Kuwait at the Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

Iran: is Trump’s ultimate target in this war China?

30 min listen

As the crisis in the Middle East has escalated, Donald Trump's posturing has led many to question his strategy – and if he even has one. Geoffrey Cain, former foreign correspondent, expert on authoritarian regimes – and the author of this week's cover piece in The Spectator, joins Freddy to explain why Trump's ultimate target in the war is China. From the Belt and Road development initiative to more tacit bilateral support, President Xi has been playing a game of chess, to try to check America's power. With Nicolás Maduro arrested and Ayatollah Khamenei assassinated, President Trump is showing his willingness to project American power, at whatever cost – so far. Cain raises questions for those who assume we're moving to a multipolar world.

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state germany

Merz is feeling the pressure of Germany’s state elections

Amid growing uncertainty caused by the US-Israel offensive against Iran and surging gas prices, Germany had its first major election of the year yesterday, with the new state parliament of Baden-Württemberg elected. Forecasts indicate that the Greens, who have been governing the state for the past 15 years, will remain in control of the premier office in Stuttgart, while the Christian Democrats (the CDU) have come in as a close second. Over the past couple of months, it appeared as if the Christian Democrats, with their leading candidate Manuel Hagel, could win the election. But negative vibes from Berlin impacted Hagel's campaign, as promised reforms continue to stall and Friedrich Merz's CDU-led government faces record low approval ratings.

Une bouteille de beaujoulais nouveau à côté d'un repas McDonald's, France, 1994. (Photo by Robert DEYRAIL/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

European culture is being Americanized

Did Mariah Carey mime or not when she headlined the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Milan? That was the main takeaway from last month’s jamboree. Organizers have since suggested that the US singer did indeed lip-sync to Domenico Modugno’s “Nel Blu, dipinto di Blu” and the song that followed, her very own, “Nothing is Impossible.” “The technical, logistical and organizational complexities of an Olympic ceremony are not comparable to a live performance by a single artist,” said a spokesperson for the organizing committee.    Was there also a linguistic complexity in the decision? Perhaps Carey didn’t feel confident singing live in Italian in front of 75,000 spectators in the San Siro Stadium, plus the 9.

China Iran

Will the war in Iran really weaken China?

Analogies in international politics are tricky and easily abused, yet they remain irresistible because they can illuminate patterns that are otherwise hard to see. Consider the present moment.  Just as Ukraine has become a growing burden for Washington and its Western allies, Iran is now a strategic burden for Moscow and Beijing. The US, particularly under the Trump administration, appears to be placing less emphasis on supporting Ukraine. Something similar may be happening in reverse with Iran.  Moscow continues to provide Tehran with assistance – most notably intelligence on US military targets – but the broader pattern suggests caution rather than deep commitment.

Trump is heading for a hard reckoning over Iran

The social media video with which the White House has promoted its attack on Iran is, even by the standards we’ve come to expect from the Trump administration, grotesque on a level that still manages to be flabbergasting. Prefaced in the usual block capitals “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY”, with a flag and flame emoji of the sort favored by pubescent boys rather than, usually, government agencies, it’s three quarters of a minute of pure brainrot. It isn’t a sign of Trump Derangement Syndrome to consider this video obscene It begins with Tony Stark in front of a bank of computers saying “Wake up. Daddy’s home.