All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
‘If I had £1 for every lie someone told about me/us, I could have retired 10 mins into this campaign.’ I wrote this on 2 December after yet another – how shall I put this – ‘falsity’ was said about me and the Brexit party, who I am standing for in Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle.
There is a strange dual narrative on Brexit here in Berlin. On the surface, nothing has changed. Donald Tusk’s comments last week, that Brexit has been ‘one of the most spectacular mistakes’ in EU history, speak for many Germans who have looked upon the UK with ridicule and pity since 2016. Germans have relished in the
Election campaigning has changed in recent years. While the Saturday morning door knock is here to stay, the battle for hearts and minds is increasingly fought on social media. As Katy Balls recently wrote in The Spectator, there’s a whole other conversation happening online: one that consumers of traditional media just don’t see. Here’s a rundown
Everyone knows the Lib Dems want to stop Brexit, but that’s not always been true of its voters. Some 750,000 of them backed Leave in the 2016 referendum; one-third of all those who’d voted for the party in the previous year’s general election. One thing’s for sure: Jo Swinson’s ‘Stop Brexit’ campaign is not designed
The two stand-out moments of the campaign? 1) Jeremy Corbyn refusing to say sorry to the Jewish community, in Andrew Neil’s BBC interview, for the hurt and anxiety he caused by failing for years to eliminate anti-Semitism from the Labour party. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oB2OcXAjSc 2) Boris Johnson’s refusal to look at a picture of a four-year-old with
Polling stations open in 15 hours time and this is an election where no one is certain what the result will be. The YouGov MRP shows a tightening race with the Tories currently on course for a majority in the twenties but with Labour closing strongly. On the YouGov MRP, if the Tory lead fell
The last YouGov constituency-level poll showed a significant closing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, with the projected Tory majority falling from 68 seats two weeks ago to 28 seats now – and with a margin of error which could take us well into hung parliament territory. The interpretation being put on this
The actor Steve Coogan has started his traditional round of election broadcasts, supposedly in an attempt to whip up support for Labour. Unfortunately for Steve, he had a bit of an Alan Partridge moment earlier today when he told Sky News that Labour is ‘encouraging prejudice’. Mr S would sadly have to agree. You can watch the clip
In this week’s Book Club podcast, my guest is the children’s writer Piers Torday, author of the Last Wild trilogy and, most recently, The Frozen Sea. Why is winter such a powerful thing in children’s writing? How come children’s books are such a booming publishing sector when so many people thought that screens would all but
It’s easy to imagine prime ministers on election night, either nervously grinning or groaning in despair when the results for Dartford are announced. In every election since 1964, the London constituency has voted for the party which went on to win nationwide. It, along with nine other constituencies (such as Watford, Reading West and Worcester)
To choose is to endorse. But this is an election in which, for myriad reasons, all the options are deplorable. To choose one of them, even on a least-bad basis, feels like a kind of capitulation. So I will vote tomorrow but I shall, for the first time, spoil my ballot. None of the Above
It is still too close to call. And the odds are still on a Tory victory. Even so, with the polls narrowing, with lots of constituencies likely to change hands and with plenty of voters still to make up their minds, there is still a real chance that by Friday morning Jeremy Corbyn could be
In the end it probably comes down to four things, most of them momentous, about the power of the people, and the very structure of the country. First, this is your only chance to decide whether the UK leaves the EU at the end of January or whether you want a referendum next year that
Sometime around the start of this decade, before anti-Semitism was as cool as it has become, I was standing on a stage in London with a couple of rabbis and a Muslim. And if that sounds like the start of a joke then what followed wasn’t. We were there at the request of a new
Wales has been dominated by the Labour party for, quite literally, longer than anyone can remember. But the key message from the final Welsh poll of the campaign is that we could be on the verge of a genuinely historic general election outcome. The Welsh Political Barometer poll was conducted over the final weekend of
Despite its well-drilled Momentum supporters and union backing, Labour’s fabled election machine seems to be misfiring this election. On Friday, I personally conducted two informal focus groups of millennial swing voters in London and was surprised, in what should be Labour’s strongest redoubt, that not one participant could recall a single Labour advertisement, or even what
When the first YouGov MRP poll of the election campaign was published last month, it was a cause of anxiety in Conservative Campaign Headquarters. The projection of a Tory majority of 68 was seen as overly optimistic – and there were concerns that it could lead to complacency in the polling booth. The second –
Nicola Sturgeon has had a change of heart. Gone are the ultimatums, the stridency and the self-righteous rhetoric. In an interview with today’s Daily Record, we see Sturgeon the Introspective: ‘Brexit gave me an insight, maybe that I didn’t have before, of how No voters would have felt had the referendum on independence gone the
What’s the point of political leaflets, anyway? Many voters in target seats will be asking that very question on an almost daily basis, as they shovel the latest snowdrifts of election literature into their recycling bin. We have social media, party election broadcasts and phone banks to reach voters. Who needs leaflets? There is a
Vote Corbyn, says Corbyn. That is the unsurprising message from the Labour leader’s brother Piers in a video filmed at Speakers’ Corner in London. But while Piers backed his sibling over accusations of anti-Semitism and Labour’s position on Brexit, it wasn’t an entirely ringing endorsement. Piers Corbyn, who has previously said ‘man-made climate change does
Jonathan Ashworth has been caught out this morning after a leaked tape emerged of the shadow health secretary talking about his fears for Britain’s national security if Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM. Ashworth said the civil service would need to ‘pretty quickly move to safeguard security’ if Labour wins on Thursday. Ashworth also gave his verdict on…
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon bagged the 8:10am slot on this morning’s Today programme but it didn’t go quite as she might have planned. Scotland’s first minister was asked whether it was appropriate for her to be attacking the Conservatives on the NHS when her party’s own record was so woeful. Responsibility for the health service was
Ed Miliband may have held his seat in Doncaster North for over 14 years, but the Conservatives seem to think the former Labour leader might be vulnerable this election campaign. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 72 per cent of Doncaster North’s residents voted Leave, which stands in stark contrast to Miliband’s own pro-Remain Brexit stance,
Whatever the results on Thursday, there have been aspects of this election campaign not revealed by polling. My experience of speaking and campaigning in my MEP patch in the North West has been revelatory. I am in awe of a layer of new activists who have been inspired to want more fundamental change than that offered
The Brexit party and Conservatives have more in common than they might like to admit. Yet their similarities haven’t stopped the bickering, as Claire Fox argues on Coffee House this morning. On the one hand, we have a party which believes it more important to have some form of exit deal from the European Union. On
John McDonnell was insisting this morning that Labour was going to win a majority, but just in case, insiders are suggesting that the Shadow Chancellor is planning to take over as interim leader if Jeremy Corbyn resigns after a general election defeat. McDonnell has long championed Rebecca Long-Bailey as a future leader, and there is
An interview earlier today with my colleague Joe Pike captures the contradiction at the heart of Boris Johnson’s campaign. He wants to be seen as campaigning to lead a ‘new’ government, but the Tories have been in power since 2010. So he finds it impossible to take responsibility for four-year-old Jack Williment-Barr, left to lie on
It’s been a hectic election day for the two main parties. Labour managed to move the conversation to their preferred turf – the NHS – following the story of a four-year-old boy forced to sleep on the floor of an overcrowded A&E unit. As Isabel reports, Boris Johnson’s refusal to look at a photo of
When’s the Question Time for over-60s, then? Or maybe even over-75s? After all, elderly people face specific social problems: pension issues, care, loneliness. And yet they aren’t getting their very own QT, unlike under-30s, who are. Tonight the BBC is hosting a special youth version of its flagship political show and in the process it
Has Boris decided this election is in the bag? I ask because this afternoon he’s made just about the first bold policy announcement of the campaign. After a safety-first manifesto and little other announcements so as not to frighten the horses, he has stuck his neck out and suggested that the TV licence might be
Is Boris Johnson a robot? I ask this advisedly, given the connotations of that word in the political arena, but the way the Prime Minister responded to questions from a journalist this afternoon does suggest he might be turning into one. He was asked by ITV’s Joe Pike for a response to the photo of
Labour’s election strategy has been to go on the attack against Britain’s billionaires. Today one of them responded. Phones4U founder John Caudwell quizzed shadow chancellor John McDonnell on Labour’s economic policy today and it’s safe to say he wasn’t impressed. Caudwell warned McDonnell that his party’s plans could lead to an exodus of wealthy taxpayers
In 72 hours time, voting will be well underway. We will be talking about turnout being ‘brisk’. Right now, the polls are indicating that a Tory majority is the most likely result. But it is not certain and a combination of three things could still stop it. First, mass Remainer tactical voting. The margins in
Jo Swinson won’t be our next prime minister but her election campaign has achieved one significant thing already: she’s helped the BBC to start doing the job of journalism on trans rights issues. The Lib Dems have taken a conscious decision to go into the election campaign as the party of trans rights and inclusion.