All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
This morning’s so-called ‘React study’ — an attempt by Imperial College to estimate the prevalence of current Covid-19 infection in Britain — has aroused much interest thanks to its suggestion of a sharp fall in the R number. Its central estimate for R is 1.06, but it applies a range of between 0.74 to 1.46,
Remember the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland? When it erupted in 2010, it caused unprecedented disruption. Millions of people were stranded in various corners of the world. Europe’s airspace was shut down. And airlines were left with an estimated £1.2bn bill. Needless to say this is all small beer by today’s standards of financial loss. But can the response to that
It can be hard to keep track of the progress of the epidemic as the daily cases, hospitalisations and deaths often seem to tell a contradictory story. Each suffers from random noise, delays and incompleteness in reporting, and arguments about how exactly they should be compiled. However, the total number of Covid-19 patients in hospital
‘Coronavirus could kill half a million Britons and infect 80 per cent of the UK population.’ ‘The number of coronavirus cases in England is doubling each week.’ ‘At least six English NHS trusts could be overwhelmed this winter.’ ‘Long-term effects of coronavirus include damage to heart, liver, kidneys.’ ‘Don’t kill your gran by catching coronavirus
The UK is set to offer the EU a three-year transition period on fishing as a means of setting aside the issue as a block to a potential deal. What to do about fish has been a major impediment in the negotiations throughout the post-referendum period. And it appears that this government wants to repeat
In what is already a classic of a peculiarly modern genre (remember ‘female leaders dealt with Covid’ better, anyone?), online comedienne Sarah Cooper has blasted the two players in the presidential debate. The savagery of Tuesday night’s showdown was not the culmination of a bitter struggle for America’s increasingly fractious soul. No, the problem is (you guessed
Boris Johnson announced no new restrictions in Wednesday’s coronavirus restrictions — but there was still little reason for cheer. Those ministers hoping for a change to the 10 p.m. curfew were left disappointed. Johnson and his advisers — Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Officer Patrick Vallance — offered a series of graphs and
It was another ‘worst week ever’ for Boris. The highlight being his successful bid to make mincemeat of himself by garbling his own lockdown rules at a press conference. At PMQs, he presented an open target and the Labour leader struck early with a highly specific question: Why has Luton emerged from lockdown when other
When former Tory MP Charlie Elphicke was found guilty of sexual assaulting two women, his wife Natalie – who has succeeded him as MP in his Dover seat – immediately announced the end of their marriage. Three days later, Natalie then gave a tell-all interview to the Sun, in which she explained why she had to
When Jeremy Corbyn was battling to retain the Labour leadership back in 2016, Corbyn was given a helping hand from Momentum. The pro-Corbyn group handed Jez’s campaign a £50,000 loan to help in his bid to fight off Owen Smith’s challenge. With Corbyn’s time at the top now over, however, it seems that Corbyn will
Prediction, projection, illustration — call it what you wish, but when you make a statement about what’s going to happen next, people are going to assess whether you’re correct or not. Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, said last week: At the moment we think that the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days…If, and
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Keir Starmer attacked Boris Johnson in PMQs today over the effectiveness of local lockdowns, saying in some areas ‘things are getting worse not better’. After the PM himself got the rules mixed up yesterday, is the government’s strategy working, or is a change of strategy needed? Katy Balls speaks to James Forsyth.
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Donald Trump and Joe Biden met in the first head-to-head debate of the campaign yesterday evening. The result was a frenzied 90 minutes of outbursts and interruptions from which neither candidate emerged well. Biden lambasted the President as a ‘clown’, while Trump ruthlessly attacked the Democratic challenger’s family, ignoring the tragic death of his son,
So, the numbers of new Covid infections in the UK failed to register a fourth consecutive fall and instead rose to a new record of 7,143. This does not mean that the disease is spreading as rapidly as it did in the spring when far fewer tests were being undertaken, but the rise has nevertheless
Back when John Bercow was in the Commons’ hot seat, a Tory telling-off was part of the daily run of events. Things have changed under his replacement Lindsay Hoyle. But today the speaker took no prisoners as he berated the government over its use of emergency coronavirus powers. At the start of PMQs today, Hoyle accused
Everyone forgets the third article of impeachment. The charge sheet against Richard Nixon, adopted by the House judiciary committee following the Watergate burglary and a conspiracy to impede its investigation, famously accused the president, first, of obstruction of justice and, second, of violating citizens’ constitutional rights. Thirteen days later, on August 9, 1974, and with
Keir Starmer’s achievement is remarkable: ten months after Boris Johnson’s resounding victory, he has transformed Labour from no-hopers into a force that is terrifying the Tories. As the Conservative tribe prepares to gather for its virtual party conference, the obvious question is whether defeat at the next election is a realistic prospect. The answer, unlike in January
Some of our most illustrious universities now look more like juvenile detention centres, all in the name of stopping the spread of Covid-19. This last week has seen police raids and strict lockdowns on students’ lives, many of whom will have been leaving home for the first time. Young people compare their campuses to prisons, complaining of illegal detention
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The Prime Minister was forced to apologise this afternoon after misstating new lockdown rules brought into force overnight in the North East. Is government incompetence costing it support? In a live episode of Coffee House Shots for The Spectator’s Alternative Conference, Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and James Johnson, co-founder of polling
Free speech requires a leap of faith: a belief that even if bad speech does harm, the good done by allowing people to say what they think clearly outweighs it. You either have that faith or you do not. Unfortunately it seems that the Law Commission does not, at least if a recent document it
Forget gender, race, or whether you will or won’t wear a mask in polite company. The biggest dividing line in the UK is education. The new focus on non-university routes could be the healing balm we need. Picking over the pieces after the 2016 referendum, pollsters discovered the single most dramatic split between Leave and
The Prime Minister has never been known as a details man — and he shows no sign of changing his style anytime soon. Boris Johnson was unable to explain the details of his newly announced lockdown rules in North East England. During a Q&A after a speech in Exeter this morning, the PM was asked about the new
Steve Baker has returned to his former role of government tormentor-in-chief this week, piling pressure on the government over its use of emergency powers on coronavirus. Speaking at The Spectator‘s Alternative Conference, Baker criticised documents from the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) as ‘dreadful’. The papers, published earlier this year, proposed a strategy
Tim Davie has this month taken on the role of BBC director-general in spectacular fashion, announcing plans today for auntie to be given the authority to strip its stars of their Twitter accounts if they breach impartiality guidelines. This will no doubt come as a shock to some. Gary Lineker, a staunch Boris Johnson critic, has been regularly
As the transgender war plays out online in Britain, a far bloodier turn of events is unfolding in Pakistan. This month, transgender activist Gul Panra was shot dead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s capital Peshawar. Another transgender woman, named Tariq alias Chahat, who had joined Panra to perform at a wedding, was also wounded in the attack.
New confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been rising now since early July — steadily at first and then sharply since early September. But is there any sign of an increase in deaths? The latest weekly figures from the Office for National Statistics for deaths in England and Wales, released this morning, do record an
When Boris Johnson addressed the nation last week to give an update on his coronavirus strategy, the Prime Minister offered a rebuke of the idea put forward by some Tory MPs and scientists that vulnerable groups ought to be shielded and the rest of the population allowed to live close to normal lives. He argued that suggestions the vulnerable
Monday night’s Commons debate showed the extent of Tory backbench frustration with ministers over their refusal to consult parliament on increasing coronavirus restrictions. But it also showed that the situation isn’t beyond repair. MPs were blunt in their criticism of the government but were also polite and clearly keen to avoid a stand-off. Parliamentarians just
Is the government heading for a Commons defeat on its coronavirus powers? Judging from the speeches on the Tory benches in the chamber this afternoon, things are not looking particularly promising for Boris Johnson. Desmond Swayne used the debate to ask whether the Prime Minister has been abducted by Dr Strangelove and reprogrammed by Sage while Lucy Allan
It will involve hundreds of hours of haggling over thousands of different products. It will have to pass torturous debates in Congress. And it will have to survive an election cycle or two. There are lots of hurdles in the way of a British trade deal with the United States. But now we have perhaps
Peter Murrell is the most powerful man in Scotland but almost no one has heard of him. The SNP chief executive shuns the spotlight but he is one half of Scotland’s ruling class: he is the husband of Nicola Sturgeon. The Sturgeon-Murrell reign has gone largely unchallenged in the ultra-disciplined SNP — but that is
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Graham Brady’s amendment to give backbenchers a vote over new coronavirus restrictions looks set to pass through the Commons this week, provided it is selected by the Speaker. With the government determined not to give MPs a say, can they avoid a showdown with Tory backbenchers? Cindy Yu speaks to James Forsyth and Katy Balls.
The Times reports today that parliament’s bars are exempt from the 10 p.m. curfew as well as from mask-wearing on the grounds that they are formally considered ‘workplace canteens’ — providing what some see as a legal get out for MPs and Lords hoping to enjoy privileges denied to the rest of the country. But