Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Why Jack Schlossberg lost

Jack Schlossberg was, until yesterday, a high-profile candidate in New York’s 12th congressional district who seemingly had everything you might need for a modern political career: a winning smile, a Kennedy connection, an engaging social media presence. The only thing he was missing? Actual policies on which to predicate his campaign. He came third in yesterday's primary, after securing just over 10 percent of the vote. “Jack didn’t have a message other than, ‘It’s time to shake up politics,’” Democratic consultant Chris Coffey told the New York Times.

jack schlossberg

Northern Ireland has been the biggest loser from Brexit

In the decade since the vote to leave the European Union, arguably no issue has consumed more energy, column inches, political capital and careers than how to solve the problem of Northern Ireland. It was on that narrow, jagged border between North and South that the substantive skirmishes took place between the UK and EU on what their future relationship would look like. While Michel Barnier and Lord Frost arguing the toss over the finer points of agri-food regulation may lack the luster of the Battle of the Boyne or the romantic connotations of 1916, it was no less significant a moment in Northern Ireland’s history.

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Britain is the weak man of Europe on border control

Britain and France have rewritten the "one in, one out" migrant deal nearly a year after it came into effect. The treaty, described as "groundbreaking" by both countries last summer, has struggled to stem the numbers of migrants heading from France to England in small boats. It soon became apparent that the deal contained a loophole that enabled a handful of deported migrants to return to Britain in the back of a lorry. Britain's Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has agreed with her French counterpart, Laurent Nuñez, to close this loophole by tweaking the treaty to stipulate that its terms apply to any returning migrant regardless of whether they enter a second time by boat or by vehicle.

The rise and rise of America’s radical left

Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed three fellow socialists in the New York City Democratic Congressional primaries and all three won last night. Democratic incumbent Dan Goldman lost to Brad Lander, who was a member of the Democratic Socialists of America until 2023. DSA Member Claire Valdez won nomination for a Brooklyn House seat. But the eyepopper is the victory of Darializa Avila Chevalier, a 32-year-old DSA member and PhD graduate student, in East Harlem and the Bronx. She defeated Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and will easily become the most radical House member since Vito Marcantonio of the American Labor Party represented the same area in the 1940s.

The unique charisma of Pope Francis

The anniversary of Pope Leo XIV’s election last month generated lots of thoughtful but inconclusive analysis from mainstream Catholic commentators – and, on social media, far more heat than light. Traditionalists in particular have turned on each other. Some think Leo is quietly reversing the mistakes of his predecessor, or at least planning to do so. Others describe him as "Francis II" or "Bergoglio in nicer vestments." I believe that the former position is closer to the truth.

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The real threat to democracy after Brexit

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, its long-term impact on British politics is evident. Not so evident is why this is the case. Every general election sees comparable debates. So too did the 1975 referendum on membership called by Harold Wilson. But none of these other elections has ever produced such an extreme and long-lasting reaction, or a concerted attempt to use both informal and formal methods – constitutional and legal – to block the result.

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Ahmed al-Sharaa can be a great man of history

Trump’s Middle East tour in May last year felt like the end of an era. Here was the former al-Qaeda commander, Ahmed al-Sharaa, now leader of Syria, shaking hands with a vulgar American Commander-in-Chief, who resembles the caricature of a US president we might find in an al-Qaeda cartoon. Yet the War on Terror’s two leading men, the President and the Jihadi, having ended the last act at each other’s throats, have returned to the stage arm-in-arm to take a bow. Al-Sharaa has trimmed his beard, put on a suit, replaced Bashar al-Assad as president and begun welcoming western investors to help him rebuild his country after a decade and a half of civil war. Trump has dropped the showy religiosity and moral posturing of his predecessors.

Has America really lost to Iran?

Vice President J.D. Vance is returning from the Swiss Alps having concluded the opening phase of the Iran talks with a view to achieving a peace deal. Are critics right to claim that the whole war has been a humiliation for America? Freddy speaks to Stanford professor Victor Davis Hanson about MAGA foreign policy, the midterms, why oil is so important to the American voter and the right-wing realignment in Latin America. Learn how to earn yield on gold, paid in gold, at Monetary-Metals.

Has America really lost to Iran?

What I saw at the Montréal shooting

We were running late to check out of our hotel because my two young girls had demanded to use the pool one last time. I indulged them. The squeals of laughter were worth it. Afterward, we hustled to pack, race out the room and at 11:40 a.m. the elevator doors opened in the lobby of the Hilton in Côte-des-Neiges district of Montreal. Our path was blocked by staff. There was, one hotel worker informed us, a shooter. I sent my wife and children back up to our room and, with the dubious conviction of a professional journalist, went to investigate. My family and I had come to Montréal for a joyful Jewish wedding Through the glass of the hotel entrance, I saw a male officer lying in the street and female cop with her pistol drawn scanning the area.

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The very personal tragedy of Keir Starmer

Now that the end has come for Keir Starmer, history can get to work, analyzing and anatomizing his failures. The central question for posterity: how did a politician win a huge majority yet end up powerless less than two years later? A lot of the political obituaries will rightly talk about a lack of politics. Starmer just wasn’t interested enough in party politics or, especially, party politicians. His Labour colleagues were not just strangers but strange to him. The tearooms were foreign territory, so their residents were never inclined to do his bidding. How did a politician win a huge majority yet end up powerless less than two years later? There will also be a widespread view that he lacked ideas.

Why Japanese students aren’t woke

One of the joys of living in Japan is the lack of wokeness. It is not that it doesn’t exist – there is a Tokyo Pride, the odd Gaza protest, and gender equality is increasingly discussed – it’s simply that the concept doesn’t quite translate. Like the strikes that only take place at the weekend so as not to inconvenience customers, woke protesters here are tiny in number, generally polite and devoid of the threatening aggressiveness of the West. And diversity isn’t really a thing. Maybe that’s another reason tourist numbers have exploded. You can get away from all that here…  The young in particular seem charmingly oblivious to the culture wars, and universities are generally safe spaces for the woke-phobic.

Is Zelensky about to attack Belarus?

There has long been a worry that Russian escalation or miscalculation might see the Ukraine war widen into a broader European one. But what if it’s Kyiv, not Moscow, that starts this process? The flashpoint is Belarus. Minsk’s dictatorial leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is beholden to Vladimir Putin, but not a helpless vassal. On the one hand, he has refused to join Putin’s war directly, saying that he won’t allow Belarusians to become "mincemeat." On the other, he has been willing to let Russian troops use facilities in his country, and fly drones and missiles through his airspace.

How a Trump-loving lawyer nicknamed ‘The Tiger’ became Colombia’s president

Abelardo de la Espriella was never going to be a typical Colombian presidential candidate. Nicknamed "The Tiger," the defense lawyer who has represented a string of controversial clients is also a businessman and owns a number of clothing and alcohol brands, a Miami restaurant and even music albums. De la Espriella campaigned on a radical and robust security agenda, vowing to rid Colombia of its violent and criminal woes. “I will wipe out narco-terrorism..I will unleash the wrath of God upon them as never seen before,” de la Espriella said “I will wipe out narco-terrorism, those I have sentenced and declared military targets, like cockroaches, like rats. I will unleash the wrath of God upon them as never seen before,” de la Espriella said during his campaign.

The small Dutch town that said no to more asylum seekers

A political crisis is unfolding in the small Dutch town of Maassluis, a former fishing village which sits between Rotterdam’s vast port and industrial complex, the glasshouses of the agribusiness powerhouse known as the Westland, and the historic fishing town of Vlaardingen. Despite what some may claim, it is not a far-right insurgency, just a group of local politicians responding to concerns widely shared by their electorate The natives of Maassluis were once nicknamed "snails." They acquired the name in the 1770s, when the parliament of the Dutch Republic decreed that Psalms should be sung at a faster tempo in church.

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‘Make Germany normal again’: an interview with Germany’s exiled spy chief

Hans-Georg Maassen is an unlikely dissident. In his trademark three-piece suits and small glasses, he looks more like a law professor. Indeed, that is what he studied, earning a doctorate on the legal status of asylum seekers in international law. This bourgeois exterior is the perfect cover for a man who was Germany’s top spy, charged with protecting the country from the far-right and Islamists. But now he is no longer under the quiet protection of the German state; he is its victim. He is under investigation from the agency he once led, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). Like George Smiley, Maassen is a remnant of an older and more powerful country, soldiering on in spite of the decline, trying to preserve what he can.

Will Vance regret being the face of the Iran deal?

After a week of international agonizing, it looks as if the first round of the latest peace talks between America and Iran will not begin today – at least, not formally. The Memorandum of Understanding has been signed – electronically by Iran and by Donald Trump’s hand in Versailles on Wednesday. But J.D. Vance’s big Switzerland trip, originally planned to kick off the talks, has been put on hold as the Lebanon issue reared its troublesome head overnight. Late yesterday afternoon, Hezbollah fired several salvoes of rockets at IDF targets, killing four soldiers. Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes in Southern Lebanon, killing 18 and wounding 33, according to the Lebanese ministry of health.

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Iran’s loser victory

After years of negotiations, two wars, a succession of ruthlessly quashed uprisings in Iran and countless billions of dollars’ worth of ordnance smashing into rubble across the region, we have the bones of an agreement. Not a deal, it should be said. Instead an understanding that manages to speak volumes and yet say very little in the way of concrete details. Vice President JD Vance's trip to Switzerland may have been postponed -- after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire over Lebanon last night -- but the Memorandum of Understanding between America and Israel has been signed, and both sides seem confident that the peace process has not yet been derailed. Who won, you might ask? Surely, Iran.

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Israel is the new Ukraine

J.D. Vance didn't call Benjamin Netanyahu out by name, but in sternly reprimanding the "Cabinet of the Israeli government" from the White House podium on Thursday, he sent Israel and its Prime Minister a clear message. In demanding more respect, raising the threat of severe consequences and ordering the country to get in line, the Vice President echoed the public fight he picked with another world leader and US ally: Volodymyr Zelensky. It wasn't quite as spectacular as the now infamous Oval Office blow up in February last year between Trump, Vance and the Ukrainian president. But Vance went further in his criticism of Israel than any other US President or Vice President in recent memory.

The mostly untold story of the brutalist Obama Presidential Center

A dozen years in the making, the $1 billion Obama Presidential Center had its public unveiling in Chicago today. It became the sought-after ticket for liberal politicians and celebrities who want to ignore the presence of Orange Man Bad in the White House. Indeed, Donald Trump wasn’t even invited, no doubt much to the relief of former presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden who all showed up. The performers included Bruce Springsteen, Bono and Jennifer Hudson. They were celebrating a most unusual building, and one the mainstream media has shown remarkably little interest in looking into. Its brutalist near-windowless features have been compared to a 225 foot World War Two flak tower. Britain’s Guardian even noted it was “like a Klingon prison.

America’s Anthropic blackout won’t make the world safer

For the first time, the United States government has switched off frontier artificial intelligence and forced the world to go without it. Two of the most capable AI systems ever built, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, went dark last week. Not just in China or Iran. A researcher in London, a developer in Tokyo, an entire company in Berlin, all cut off at once, all treated as equally dangerous. A letter reached Anthropic at 5.21 on a Friday afternoon from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, citing national security authorities. It told the company to suspend access for every foreign national, anywhere in the world. There is no switch that lets in Americans and keeps out everyone else. To comply, Anthropic said it had to take the models down for all users at once.

Keir Starmer’s delusion is becoming tragic

Keir Starmer has entered what might be described as the peak delusion period of what remains of his time in Downing Street. There was fresh evidence of the Prime Minister’s all-consuming divorce from political reality in his latest comments about his fellow Labour politician and political rival Andy Burnham, who is widely predicted to win the Makerfield by-election today, and then go on to launch a leadership challenge to turf the PM out of office. The British PM just doesn’t get it Anyone and everyone knows all this and more, except Starmer apparently, who called Burnham “a great asset” and said he deserved “a big role in government.” What is Starmer smoking? The only big role in government that Burnham wants is Starmer’s job in Number 10.

Trump

Is Trump going to defund Israel?

Cutting US military aid to Israel was once an impossible dream of the most extreme fringe of the Democratic party. Today axing the $3.8 billion annual package is a bipartisan issue being spearheaded by the GOP. The number of free US tax dollars that Israel would receive to spend on its military under a GOP plan being discussed by both governments would be reduced to zero. The brainchild of Marlin Stutzman, a staunch Israel ally and Republican congressman from Indiana, the proposed memorandum of understanding, which would come into effect when the current deal ends in 2028, now forms the basis of the negotiations and was endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Beware the ‘matrescence’ con

Every so often, a fashionable new concept is born. Witness the arrival of "matrescence," which, for the uninitiated, is a phrase used to describe the physical, psychological, emotional and social transition a woman undergoes when becoming a mother. Or, as my mother and grandmother would have put it, and perhaps yours too: motherhood. "Matrescence" first appeared in the 1970s, coined by the medical anthropologist Dana Raphael, but it seems to be reaching maturity now. Advertisements splashed across the back page of the New York Times make the case for the inclusion of the word in the dictionary. A "global movement" is being launched (by a social networking site for women and a company that sells baby bottles) to put matrescence on the cultural map.

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Will the Iran deal destroy J.D. Vance?

When it comes to foreign policy, Donald Trump is neither hawk nor dove. He’s a dealmaker who plays differing sides off each other. In so doing, he ends up disappointing warmongers and peaceniks in equal measure. Rather than blaming Trump for a bad deal, his pro-Israel supporters will tie its shortcomings to Vance On 28 February, when he launched Operation Epic Fury, Trump’s more dovish supporters felt betrayed. The president who had campaigned against regime-change wars began a new conflict by channeling George W. Bush. "To the great, proud people of Iran I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand," he said.

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Trump has been humbled over Iran

Donald Trump is engaged in one of the biggest battles of his career. After spending millions to turn the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool “flag day blue,” Trump is combatting a tenacious opponent that threatens to mar his upcoming July 4 celebrations. US National Park Service Workers spent much of yesterday on a desperate mission – dumping gallons of hydrogen peroxide into the pool to eliminate the ghastly green clumps of algae that have colonized it. Trump is awash in a sea of troubles. His name has been removed by court order from the Kennedy Center. His White House ballroom is facing cost overruns amounting to several hundred million dollars.

Can Trump forge a lasting peace?

22 min listen

Freddy is joined by Daniel McCarthy, US columnist for The Spectator and the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review. They discuss the US-Iran peace deal, whether a lasting peace is possible in the region, and what's at stake for Iran and leaders in the Persian Gulf.

Janeese lewis george

Will Janeese Lewis George be the Zohran Mamdani of DC?

Eight months after New York handed City Hall to a democratic socialist, Washington, DC appears ready to follow suit. Janeese Lewis George, a former prosecutor, leads the field, preaching the same message of affordability that carried Zohran Mamdani to power. DC residents head to the polls today to vote in the mayoral primary after Muriel Bowser decided not to stand for reelection. In the deepest of blue areas, the winner of the Democratic primary race is almost certain to be its next mayor. The primary has become an ideological tug-of-war between the Democratic party's socialist wing and its business-aligned establishment. Lewis George runs as the candidate of the progressive coalition.

Jerry Seinfeld and the dark truth about ‘Free Palestine’

I see Jerry Seinfeld has got the pompous left sobbing into their keffiyehs. His sin? He refused to buckle to their neo-religious mantra “Free Palestine.” The comedy legend was accosted by a YouTuber outside Madison Square Gardens in NYC last week. ‘Free Palestine’ feels like a jeer designed to taunt Jews “Can we get a ‘Free Palestine’?” the streamer asked as he shoved his mic towards Seinfeld’s mouth. Seinfeld smirked. He held his tongue. No “Free Palestine” passed his lips. It gets better. He then proceeded to shut down his chirpy interrogator with three words. “It doesn’t exist”, he said. He was talking about Palestine. Cue fury from the Gazaholics. This was “racist rhetoric”, cried the cranks at the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

Has America given up on Israel?

On Sunday night, Israelis went to bed expecting to be woken by sirens. The Israeli Air Force had bombed a Hezbollah base in Beirut, and Iranian leaders lined up to promise immediate, dramatic, punishing revenge before dawn.  Instead of a barrage of Iranian missiles, the country woke up to what may be worse news: the Trump administration and the Iranian regime had agreed on a deal.  Yesterday morning, the Iranian news channel Mehr shared what it claimed was in the “Memorandum of Understanding” and it seemed to be more or less correct: the US agrees that Iran gets control of the Strait of Hormuz, in return for Iran agreeing to let ships pass.

Spencer Pratt teams up with Karen Bass’s brother to sue Mayor for ‘reckless negligence’ during fires

Spencer Pratt may not be the next mayor of Los Angeles. But he’s not letting his primary defeat subdue him into silence. On Saturday, Pratt announced his plan to team up with Karen Bass’s brother to sue the Mayor for her carelessness during the Palisades fire. “I am proud to be teaming up with Karen Bass’ brother in suing his sister for her reckless negligence that led to the destruction of our homes. I hope their Thanksgiving dinner isn't too awks. I know ours hasn't been the same since last year…” Pratt said on X yesterday. Last month, Mayor Bass’s brother Kenneth sued the City of Los Angeles, the state of California and other agencies involved in the wildfires for their handling of the crisis.

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south africa

South Africa’s migration warning to the West

For months, South African social media has been awash with videos of men marching through the country’s streets carrying sticks, clubs and whips. Some of the clips are theatrical, others are more menacing. Running through them are repeated references to a date: June 30, the deadline set by anti-immigration groups for illegal migrants from neighboring African countries to leave the country... or else. South Africa might be the biggest mass migration story you have never heard of South Africa has seen this before. A protest movement appears, gathers momentum online, threatens to spiral, and then usually dissipates. Yet this country is far too combustible for anyone to assume that this movement will simply pass. For the ordinary person in South Africa, things are not going well.