All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
While I admire Charles Moore’s willingness to inherit the mantle of Mary Whitehouse, I don’t think he has quite put his finger on the essence of the Brand-Ross business. The large public outcry provoked by the call to Andrew Sachs can’t be channelled into a general war on smut at the BBC. I don’t think
The free sheets in London are leading on Boris’s attack on Gordon Brown in his Telegraph column this morning. The column is full of good knock-about stuff but what has attracted the papers’ attention is this passage—the banner headline on one of them ‘Like a drunk’: “He is like some sherry-crazed old dowager who has
The IFS post budget briefing is becoming as anticipated by the media as the budget itself, and I’m sitting at the back with the crowds. The IFS spotted the 5 million losers from the abolition of the 10p tax band which Brown claims to have only noticed afterwards. So what do they see this time?
With The Sun, The Times and The Daily Mail declaring the death of New Labour, it is worth thinking about what a New Labour government PBR would have looked like. For an idea you can look at a PQ that Stephen Byers, someone who has kept and advanced the New Labour faith, asked back in
Commerce has always deferred conversationally to art. It’s assumed that painters and writers are fascinating talkers, but from the Mermaid to the Colony room, I think they’ve only ever had one subject: money and their lack of it, or the outrageously unfair amounts of it bestowed on (naturally) less talented peers. The legendary wit of
Polly Toynbee’s column in The Guardian today contains these jaw-dropping couple of sentences: “Even if unemployment reaches 3 million, that still leaves 90% in secure jobs. Most people will suffer not at all in this recession: on the contrary they will do well as prices fall and the real value of their earnings rises.” Can
One of the most dangerous elements of yesterday’s Pre-Budget Report for the Government was Alistair Darling’s claim that the economy would start recovering by the third quarter of 2009. It’s an optimistic prognosis, and gives the Tories an open goal if things aren’t on the up by then. But has Darling already started backtracking on
Flicking through this morning’s papers, it’s even clearer how much of a flop the Pre-Budget Report was. Sure, it has some cheerleaders (cf. Polly Toynbee, Will Hutton and Steve Richards). But the best thing that most of the papers can bring themselves to say about it is that it’s a “gamble” – whilst a few
Today was meant to be the start of a fiercely contested general election campaign. Last night, the mood in centre-right circles was grim—the feeling was that Brown was about to pull off another Houdini act. But instead today has ended with Labour routed. Tories are striding around Westminster tonight with renewed confidence while Labour MPs
The more you study the Recession Budget, the more it hits you: this horror story is a best-case scenario. It’s based on almost comically optimistic assumptions. We are apparently halfway through a recession that finishes next May. Then growth starts again, they’ll magic up £5bn of efficiency savings and the rich will somehow break the
Exciting fast food wars update: faithful reader MT alerts me to something I should have known myself. Not only is the British embassy in Tehran located on Bobby Sands Street, there is a Bobby Sands burger joint in hip and happening Tehran too. Andrew McKie has also considered the ideological implications – nay, temptations –
So what’s left? Bits have been falling off New Labour like body-parts off a leper. Prudence is long gone. Today, as I blogged earlier, we lost the all-important principle that wealth creation is the basis of enhanced social justice. Which leaves the famous statement of ideological eclecticism that defined Tony Blair’s premiership if not his
So this was the Recession Budget surprise: a seven-year horizon with no debt repayment plan. Ha! Bet you didn’t expect that. Britain is to be transformed from a low-debt country into a nation saddled with a wartime debt without having fought a war. And as for today’s Brownie – it’s one the Stern Review used:
The Tories must have been tempted to roar across the Chamber, that all you got Darling? There was little in the speech that we did not know was coming and the overall effect was underwhelming. Indeed, the only numbers that grabbed one’s attention were the debt figures. Also Darling by announcing that the economy will
Click here for footage of George Osborne’s reponse to the Pre-Budget Report. Will try to find YouTube footage later.
A good post by Nick Robinson, outlining the gambles that underpin Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report: “What’s more the chancellor’s bet depends on other risky gambles. First, that the British economy will recover as early as the second half of next year. Second, that the government can deliver a major clampdown on spending and huge efficiency
Now that’s what I call a damp squib. There was very little in today’s PBR that wasn’t trailed over the weekend, and most of the new things were – of course – tax rises that Number 10 was hardly ever going to trumpet. In fact, for all of the pre-report debate over unfunded tax cuts,
Welcome to Coffee House’s live blog of Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report speech. Things will kick off at 15:30 and end at around 16:30. We’ll be following it up with plenty of analysis. Stay tuned. 15: 35 Brown is grinning away as the Tories barrack Darling for saying that the Americans admit this all started in
Brown has revelled in the economic crisis. A Prime Minister who was presumed to be a dead man walking found himself in a position where people had to listen to him. the combination of the severity of the situation and the institutional authority of his office revived him. Since September, Brown has played his cards
The 45p gambit is all about politics not raising revenue. Brown knows jolly well that even on a static calculation it only raises two and a bit billion and in reality will bring in far less. However, Brown is hoping that the move will either lure the Tories into vocal opposition, allowing him to paint
Might Gordon Brown take so many risks with the public finances that Britain would be considered in danger of defaulting on its loans? This prospect may be laughed off in Westminster, but not in the City where five-year contracts on UK gilts today surged another 4bps to a record high of 87.5bps. In English, this
We have become used to dealing in £billions since the onset of the banking crisis. With the economy facing such a dire economic outlook, there is a sense that many more £billions should be thrown at the problem – but the danger is that, in our desperation for a solution, we rush headlong into potentially
Okay, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, but I suspect I’ve spotted the first tax con of the budget – because there is a way Brown can turn the VAT cut into a tax rise for small businesses. He may find it too alluring to resist. Small firms and sole traders must charge VAT
With recession tightening its grip, the taxpaying public are more concerned than ever about the size of the tax burden, the efficiency of public services and getting value for money from the state. It is for that reason that the TaxPayers’ Alliance has published the third annual Public Sector Rich List, which provides a full
Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no
The Great Budget Game starts at 4.30pm today. Darling will have delivered his speech; copies of the report will have been sent out; and journalists across the land will be rushing to write it all up. With the post-Budget briefing finishing at 5pm and news desks shouting for copy from 6.30pm onwards, that leaves very
Here are some of the posts made over the weekend on Spectator.co.uk: Fraser Nelson says Gordon Brown is blasting out his false message, and surveys the prospects for Reykjavik on Thames. James Forsyth asks whether Brown’s political positioning on VAT is any good, and outlines the coming Tory attack on Brown. Peter Hoskin reports on a
An effective article by Bruce Anderson in today’s Independent on how Brown’s playing politics with the public finances. Here’s a key passage: “[Brown] is happy to risk further damage to the economy as long as he can inflict damage on the Tories. The only recovery which interests him is the recovery in his poll ratings.
The Tories will be desperately tempted to vigorously oppose the new 45p top rate for those earning more than £175,000. But this is just what Brown wants them to do–as Fraser pointed out this measure has far more to do with politics than raising revenue. Brown is hoping to create a situation in which the perception
Gail Collins, short of an idea for a column this week, clutters-up the NYT op-ed page with the fanciful suggestion that George W Bush stand down now and let the cool new guy takeover. Well, fine. Whatever dreams tickle your fancy. Collins also drops this in, however: “Doing nothing is almost the worst thing a
I’ve had occasion to salute the glories of the Scottish fish and chip shop before – where else can you obtain a deep-fried kebab pizza? – but when it comes to naming chippies, I’m not sure there’s many that can beat this Belfast emporium: That’s right folks: For Cod and Ulster, where the King Billy’s
Christ, I’m glad I* don’t eat at the restaurants Thomas Friedman frequents: So, I have a confession and a suggestion. The confession: I go into restaurants these days, look around at the tables often still crowded with young people, and I have this urge to go from table to table and say: “You don’t know
The latest rumour is that Brown will pay for his VAT cut with a delayed 45% rate of tax for those on £175,000 and over. So off the radar has this move been that (unlike a VAT cut) it’s not even in HM Treasury’s ready reckoner. Enough is now know about tax economics at these
Whatever you may think about Gordon Brown, he does deserve to be recognised as a master of his art. I can’t think of a more accomplished confidence trickster ever to enter Westminster. And he’s ready to unveil a whole Potemkin Village tomorrow, the climax of his life’s work. It will be built out of non-sequiteurs,