Society

James Kirkup

Jo Swinson has finally made the BBC do its job on trans rights

Jo Swinson won’t be our next prime minister but her election campaign has achieved one significant thing already: she’s helped the BBC to start doing the job of journalism on trans rights issues. The Lib Dems have taken a conscious decision to go into the election campaign as the party of trans rights and inclusion. They think that embracing the transgender issue plays well with the degree-educated, socially liberal voters in university towns. I can’t judge how well the Lib Dem trans strategy is playing out with those key voters. I can simply assess the public results of that decision, which has been a string of frankly horrible broadcast interviews

Why I’m still convinced Boris will win a majority

Everyone seems agreed. Although the numbers may not have moved much, this election is still wide open. So anyone who tries to predict the outcome in the final days risks looking very stupid. Even so, I will take that risk. The campaign has been simultaneously tense and dull. There have been no dramatic errors: no real excitements. From the outset, the polls have not moved much, generally showing a Tory lead of between ten and fourteen per cent. So is that a clue to the likely outcome? The answer is probably ‘yes’, for a number of reasons. First, why should anyone who voted Tory in 2017 desert the party now? After all,

Katy Balls

How the Conservative strategy is faring across the country

It’s the week of the election and Boris Johnson is to spend the final days of the campaign visiting every region in England and Wales – starting off with a tour of Leave-voting Labour marginals. The polls vary in the size of the Tory lead – starting from a 6pt lead and going up to a 14pt lead. Anything below seven points suggests that a majority is not guaranteed and the Tories could find themselves in hung parliament territory. The Conservative result rests on how successful their electoral strategy is in different parts of the country. As ConHome’s Paul Goodman recently said on the Spectator’s Edition podcast, it’s like a

John Connolly

14 ‘Portillo moments’ to look out for on election night

At around 3am on election night in 1997, the Conservative leading-light Michael Portillo suffered at shock defeat when he was ousted from his seat in Enfield Southgate by Stephen Twigg. Ever since, the surprising departure of a high-profile politician on election night – and their disbelieving face as the result is declared – has been dubbed a ‘Portillo moment’. The unpredictable nature of this election, and the potential upending of traditional voter loyalties means there are unusually large number of potential ‘Portillo moments’ to watch out for this week, as Cabinet Ministers, Corbyn allies, and even party leaders are vulnerable to being spectacularly dethroned. Below are the high-flying candidates who could be booted from

John Keiger

France’s doomed socialist project should make Corbyn voters think twice

What will happen if Jeremy Corbyn wins? Will it be a nightmare on Downing Street, as Liam Halligan suggests in this week’s Spectator? Or might Corbyn not be as bad as his critics fear? Helpfully, France provides a useful parallel of what prime minister Jeremy Corbyn might mean for Britain. And it doesn’t make happy reading for the Labour leader. It’s Spring 1981 and France, the fifth largest economy in the world, elects the most left-wing administration since before the Second World War following eight years of conservative rule. The government immediately begins implementing its radical manifesto: nationalisation of 11 industrial conglomerates and most private banks, higher tax-rates at the upper

Sunday shows round-up: what’s the naughtiest thing you’ve ever done Boris?

Boris Johnson – I deliver where it matters The Prime Minister showed his face once again this morning, appearing in a pre-recorded interview with Sophy Ridge. With voters heading to the polls this Thursday, Ridge began by asking Johnson whether people could trust him, a theme that has featured throughout the campaign: BJ: If you look at what I do as a politician – what I say I’m going to do, and I do – I have a record I think, of delivering for people where it really matters. Whether that’s running London, where I was able to cut crime very substantially, or deliver more affordable homes than people thought

Could Keir Starmer succeed as the next leader of the Labour party?

During his last days as manager of Manchester United it was widely thought that whoever came after Sir Alex Ferguson would have an impossible job. The same might be said of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor as Labour leader. For while Sir Alex won every trophy in club football and Corbyn has won nothing at all there is a paradoxical similarity. Because in losing, Corbyn has made many Labour members feel as happy as Manchester United fans did about winning the treble. Corbyn was elected leader in 2015 promising to speak for members rather than talk down to them about the hard choices that needed to be made if the party wanted

Charles Moore

Never mind Big Pharma and Big Oil – watch out for Big Uni

Climate alarmists and Corbynistas (the former increasingly a front organisation for the latter) often put the word ‘Big’ in front of industries which they dislike — Big Pharma, Big Oil. Those of us who do not share their views should copyright a comparable concept — Big Uni. Universities now compose an absolutely vast interest group, determined to increase their fee-paying student numbers almost regardless of qualifications or their own capacity to look after them properly. They are constantly on to the government for money. The salaries of vice-chancellors are huge and the wages of lumpen-academics are low. These impoverished workers feel little responsibility for their students and so go on

Spectator competition winners: Shakespeare on eyebrows

This time round you were asked to submit Shakespeare’s newly discovered ‘Woeful ballad to his mistress’ eyebrows’, as referred to by Jaques in As You Like It (‘…And then the lover,/ Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad/ Made to his mistress’ eyebrow…’). For the purposes of this challenge, a ballad could be any sort of poem (most of you wrote sonnets) and anachronisms were allowed. The prizewinners, in another fiercely contested week, take £20. Basil Ransome-Davies What blessing crowns thy outward loveliness? A coiffed, enrapturing head of sable hair That blazes rank above the common press. Yet there is hair invisible elsewhere. Those secret, curling wisps that underlie Thy

Stephen Daisley

The 15 Scottish seats that could decide the general election

For at least a generation — something we define loosely up here — Scottish hacks have been trying to interest London newsdesks in Scotland’s role in general elections. Then, in 2015, we had the good fortune of Scotland deciding to up and turn into a one-party state overnight. Then, in 2017, we revised our arrangements to a one-and-a-bit-party state when Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives liberated 12 seats from Nationalist control. Scotland may end up being the main story of this election too, if, as Eeyore types like me have been warning, the Tories do not romp home on December 12. In those circumstances, the Tories’ performance in Scotland could be the

Stephen Daisley

Boris should threaten to back Corbyn’s ridiculous Brexit plan

The decline of the Liberal Democrats continues to give Labour a boost and rattle Tory nerves. Middle class Remainers who dislike Jeremy Corbyn are nonetheless deciding that he is their last best chance to thwart Brexit. Electing an anti-Semitic government so you don’t need to show a passport at Paris Charles de Gaulle is quite the ethical choice but there you go. It’s also a pretty big gamble. We know that Corbyn is a Brexiteer who believes freedom of movement drives down workers’ wages because he has told us as much. Voting for him to stop a hard Brexit isn’t so much holding your nose as poking your own eye, but

Charles Moore

The diversity myth of British politics

The number of parties represented in national election debate multiplies. There are now seven crowding on to television podiums and local hustings. Yet this impression of diversity is, like the current public policy use of that word, misleading. Five of the parties — Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru — are essentially the same. They see achieving Remain, growing the state and destroying the Tories as the most important causes. The Brexit party is merely an epiphenomenon of Tory Brexit weakness and is therefore passing into history. So it is the Conservatives vs the rest, and ‘the rest’ includes all the broadcast media. This was particularly apparent in

James Forsyth

There are only two likely outcomes to this election

There are, as I say in the Sun this morning, two possible outcomes to this election: a Tory majority or a hung parliament. The seats where Labour are now concentrating their resources show that they don’t think they can win outright. Instead, their hopes rest on stopping Boris Johnson from getting to 326 seats. Right now, the Tories are on course for a majority. I understand that their own internal numbers indicate a working majority. But these margins are very fine, and victory could slip away if voters don’t turn out. If Boris Johnson does win a majority next week, it will be because he has presented himself as change.

Patrick O'Flynn

Only Brexit voters can save Nigel Farage from himself now

Nigel Farage last painted himself into a corner at the end of the 2015 general election. Now he has done it again. And Farage’s only hope is that Brexit voters can save him from himself. In the lead-up to that election, Farage foolishly spiced up a serialisation of his autobiography by declaring it would be ‘curtains’ for him – and that he would quit as Ukip leader – if he failed to win in South Thanet. Of course, he didn’t win. And early the next day, Farage duly called a clifftop press conference to declare that, being a man of his word, he was indeed standing down as Ukip leader. The irony

The margin between a Tory landslide and defeat is tiny

In next week’s election, it feels like voters would elect a Conservative president and a centre-left parliament if they had the choice. Denied those options they are muddling their way to a conclusion. But what will they decide? Firstly, it’s worth remembering that Corbynomics is popular. YouGov generically polled Labour policies and they were popular. But being likeable or popular is different to being credible or possible. Corbynomics has been partially neutralised by the Tories shifting sharply to the left on economics. Secondly, Boris Johnson’s favourability ratings have endured against Corbyn in a way that Theresa May’s did not. Last week, we reached an interesting cross-over point where the Tory campaign

Gus Carter

Has Boris Johnson changed his campaign strategy?

Stump speeches and battle bus stop-offs are a staple of political campaigning. And while much of the battle for votes now happens online, as Katy Balls points out in this week’s Spectator, the constituency fly-by remains a central element of any party’s election schedule. So what can we learn about the Conservative strategy from Boris Johnson’s tour across the country? It could reveal that the Tories are starting to panic. The Prime Minister’s campaign machine has shifted into a surprisingly defensive gear over the last week or so. Rather than descending on top target seats, Johnson is now focusing on Conservative held marginals. While his personal campaign tour has been interrupted by both

Cindy Yu

The leaders debate was revealing, but hasn’t turned the tide

In Friday night’s final TV debate between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson, neither leader landed a sucker punch on the other. Your verdict, as James Forsyth says in our Coffee House Shots podcast, will depend on what you believe the polls to be saying. If you already believe that the polls suggest a Tory majority, then Corbyn didn’t do well enough to turn that tide. But if you are cautious about the polls, then a hung parliament is still eminently possible because he just might have got enough ‘undecided’s on side. The New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush also joins the podcast, breaking the devastating news that a Pret Christmas

James Kirkup

Corbynomics won’t help the poor

Here’s a curiosity of the 2019 general election: given that both the big parties agree that austerity is over and Britain wants a more generous state, why is no one doing much to help the poor? And why is no one talking about that failure? These questions start with Labour. Jeremy Corbyn’s fans see him as a radical crusader for economic justice, an almost ascetic figure utterly devoted to the disadvantaged. In the mad ‘story’ about Corbyn and the Queen’s speech this week, the Labour leader had a perfectly good tale to tell: he spends part of his Christmas Day in a shelter for the homeless. According to the Social