Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Thursday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The Bank of England is edging closer to an interest rate cut

The Bank of England has voted to keep rates at 5.25 per cent – but there are signs that a rate cut may not be far off. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to hold the base rate. Yet there was a dovish shift in direction compared to the last meeting. In February, the MPC voted 6-3 to maintain rates, with two members voting to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points. Today, no one voted to raise rates – the first time this has happened since 2021. Instead, eight members voted to hold the base rate, while one member voted to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points. It was widely expected that the

Andrew McQuillan

Varadkar’s true achievement was screwing over the Brits

The departure of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach yesterday should really be marked by Irish nationalists with elaborate memorials and tributes in Dublin, on a par with those for the founders of the Irish state. This smooth-talking politician achieved more in one dinner than so-called freedom fighters did over 20 years  Despite the ignominious manner of his departure, having been conclusively told where to go by a chunk of the Irish population in a recent referendum designed to change fundamental elements of the constitution, Varadkar achieved something which most Irish leaders desire deep down: he managed to stiff the Brits. His star turn at a dinner in Brussels in 2018, when

Dean Godson

The rise and fall of Leo Varadkar

Leo Varadkar, who resigned yesterday, has certainly earned his place in the history of Anglo-Irish relations as one of the most consequential taoiseachs of all time. His role in Anglo-Irish relations was defined by Brexit, and Ireland’s remarkable role in shaping its outcome. The marked contrast with John Bruton – a previous Fine Gael taoiseach of the 1990s, who died last month – could not be greater. Bruton was also a militant Europhile, but he rarely sought to fan the flames of Anglophobia in the Irish Republic. Varadkar, by contrast, sought to ride that tiger relentlessly.  The UK caved to the EU/Irish demands. Dublin could hardly believe it Varadkar became taoiseach just as the

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Gove’s ‘war on landlords’ is not going to plan

Levelling up the housing market, it is fair to say, is not quite going according to plan. Rents in the year to February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), reveals today increased by 9 per cent – the largest rise since the ONS started its rental price index. In some cases, tenants have been complaining of far steeper increases as landlords seek to recover rising mortgage costs. They have been able to get away with jacking up rents because the withdrawal of many landlords from the market has led to a fall in properties available to rent. Over the past year, according to the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA), 21

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Donald Trump’s bid to woo Latino voters

President Joe Biden has been touring Nevada and Arizona in an attempt to win back disgruntled Hispanic voters. ‘This guy despises Latinos,’ he said, speaking of his adversary Donald Trump, the inevitable Republican nominee. Trump’s response? He posted the following on his Truth Social page: Laugh or scorn all you want. The polls show Trump now has majority support Hispanic voters.

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Why Labour secretly fears the Rwanda scheme

When Boris Johnson and Priti Patel first launched the Rwanda scheme, in the Spring of 2022, there seemed every chance that it could win the Tories the next election. Despite the ‘Partygate’ furore taking chunks out of the Conservative poll rating and ushering in a febrile atmosphere, Labour was struggling to create a large and durable poll lead. Exactly two years ago, the Politico website’s poll of polls had the Labour lead at just four points and Keir Starmer’s party was highly vulnerable to a Tory fightback based around the touchstone issue of tackling illegal immigration. These days the poll gap is so vast that not even the most Tiggerish

Sasha Lensky

How Putin used doublethink to manipulate the Russian election

In many ways, the recent presidential shenanigans in Russia, officially dignified with the word ‘elections’, have become a strange ritual. They’re both utterly predictable in terms of their result and, at the same time a source of anxiety for all concerned. Putin has been in power now for 25 years, and no elections under his rule have corresponded even minimally to internationally recognised standards. Their main violation has been the extensive use of public sector workers, both to run the elections and vote the way the Kremlin tells them to. Thus the electoral machine is technically always ready to provide any result required of it. Yet this was also the

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Britain just can’t stop spending

Will Jeremy Hunt have scope to deliver more tax cuts before the next election? Tory MPs certainly hope so, as cuts to employee National Insurance in last year’s Autumn Statement and this month’s Budget have yet to move the polls. Something like an income tax cut, they think, would be preferable. But this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics is an uncomfortable reminder that those kinds of tax cuts are hard to deliver: for as much as the government insists it wants to bring down the tax burden, it likes to spend money too. Public sector net borrowing in February was £8.4 billion – significantly higher than the

Jake Wallis Simons Jake Wallis Simons

Biden’s Rafah plan will only help Hamas

The fathers, brothers and sons who are risking their lives for their country do not want to go into Rafah, on the Egyptian border of the Gaza strip. The ordinary Palestinians who hate Hamas and wish for a swift Israeli victory – and there are more of them than you think – do not want a battle in Rafah. There are more than a million human shields there. The question is not one of wants. The question is one of needs. If Rafah remains untouched, Israel will have lost the war Attacking the terrorists’ last redoubt is not some kind of genocidal indulgence, as many in the west would shamefully

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Reform close in on Tories in new poll

On Wednesday night, Rishi Sunak urged his party to ‘dig deep and fight’ in the face of difficult polling. The Prime Minister will be hoping this morning that the message landed as another damaging poll has been released. The latest from YouGov/Times puts the Labour lead at 25 points. But the part that will worry Tory MPs most is the position of Reform. The poll – carried out between 19 and 20 March – puts the Tories on 19 points and Reform just four points behind on 15 points. The poll comes after Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform – which has seen the party boost its membership and visibility. So an

Ian O’Doherty

How it all went wrong for Leo Varadkar

Genuinely shocking political announcements are relatively rare in the Republic. It’s a small country, with an even smaller political and media base who all know and frequently socialise with each other. This means that the whisper-streams between politicos and hacks usually ensure that what may come as a surprise to the general population is usually well flagged, or at least strongly suspected, by the elites in advance of any public pronouncement. But yesterday’s announcement that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was stepping down from his role seemed to genuinely catch people by surprise. An emotional Varadkar cited ‘personal and political reasons’ for his departure. Nobody knows what the personal reasons may entail,

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Could Jordan Bardella be France’s next PM?

Dixmont, Yonne In Britain, France’s National Front is synonymous with the Le Pen family. Jean-Marie founded the right-wing party in 1972 and his daughter Marine replaced him as its leader in 2011. In France, however, the National Rally – as it was rebranded in 2018 – is increasingly the party of Jordan Bardella. The 28-year-old was elected its president in November 2022. The party members had a straight choice: Bardella, a working-class youngster from northern Paris, or the veteran Louis Aliot, the 53-year-old mayor of Perpignan who had joined the party before Bardella was born and who was for many years in a relationship with Marine Le Pen. ‘You grow

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Who’s behind the Mordaunt plot?

There’s an old Russian joke about the difference between an optimist and a pessimist in Moscow. The pessimist believes that things cannot get any worse. The optimist replies: ‘Of course they could!’ These days the same joke could be made about the Tory party. As it slumps to its worst polling result since the dying days of Liz Truss’s leadership, MPs are debating which of two bad choices to make. Should they roll the leadership dice one more time or stick with Rishi Sunak and hope that for once his plan works? Sunak’s team believe Tories will come to see a fourth prime minister in four years as a kind

The Spectator

What does Rachel Reeves stand for?

As the world discovered when she was caught lifting other people’s work for her book on women in economics, Rachel Reeves is not the most original of thinkers. But she has political talents. She has cultivated her image as an uninspiring technocrat in order to present herself as someone who will not spring surprises or take risks as chancellor. She thinks the state is inefficient and taxes are too high. She believes in ‘securonomics’, which sounds like a pleasing contrast to years of Tory policies. It is easy to preach fiscal discipline, but in office Labour would find it very difficult to contain spending Polls show that voters now think

Wednesday

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Inside Sunak’s showdown with Tory MPs

After a bruising few weeks for Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister this evening appeared before the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers to make his case. As MPs prepare to go into the Easter recess, Sunak tried to encourage his party to unite rather than descend further into plotting. He told MPs: This battle will define us, when the going got tough, when the polls were against us did we dig deep and fight or did we turn in on ourselves? I know that the overwhelming majority of people in this room are determined to fight: to stand up for our values, our vision and our record. He added that the

Michael Murphy

Leo Varadkar’s days were numbered

Leo Varadkar’s abrupt resignation today left even his closest allies perplexed. ‘I was very surprised, I didn’t expect it at all’, said his deputy, Micheal Martin, after the announcement. Varadkar said he’s stepping down for reasons that were ‘both personal and political’, to give Fine Gael the best chance of victory. So what made him walk? Varadkar’s government rebuffed people’s concerns with platitudes Varadkar may have thought he was continuing a decades-long progressive trend where liberal Irish governments had the wind at their backs. Divorce and same-sex marriage were legalised after successful referendums, and most recently, a ban on abortions was repealed. Ireland was shedding the small-c conservative, Roman Catholic

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

PMQs is getting sadder and sadder

At PMQs we saw the next year of politics condensed into a few seconds. Sir Keir Starmer asked the PM why he declined to call an election. ‘My working assumption is that the election will be in the second half of the year,’ said Rishi. So there it is. A date in October rather than January 2025. And he confidently expects to lose which is why he urged Labour’s Dan Carden to ‘chat with his shadow chancellor about her plan to impose £28 billion of tax rises on everyone.’  Sir Keir harried the PM on Rwanda which he called ‘a gimmick’ constantly. The g-word, clearly favoured by focus groups, was

Elliot Wilson

There’s an important lesson for politicians in the fall of Leo Varadkar

So farewell, then, Leo Varadkar. The Taoiseach says he is stepping down because he is no longer ‘the best person for that job’. But the reality is that Varadkar found out the hard way that delegating decisions to voters can come back to bite. This wasn’t the first time Ireland’s leaders have chosen to hand difficult decisions to voters Varadkar’s fate was sealed earlier this month when his government suffered a crushing defeat in two referendums. Irish voters were encouraged to back changes to the constitution which would clarify the definition of ‘the Family’ to mean ‘whether founded on marriage or on other durable relationships’ and omit a definition of

Steerpike Steerpike

Simon Case quits the Garrick Club

Should we expect a flash sale on Garrick Club memberships? The cabinet secretary Simon Case is the second high-profile figure to have quit the exclusive all-male club just hours after earnestly defending his position. The top mandarin follows MI6 chief Richard Moore out the door. The spy chief told his colleagues that he too planned to reform the organisation from within. But something apparently changed overnight that caused those noble ambitions to come apart. Talk about a fast turnaround… Case’s resignation from the club comes after the UK’s top civil servant attempted to make a compelling case for his membership only, er, yesterday. ‘You’ll forgive the impertinence of the question,’

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Lee Anderson’s ‘institutional racism’ takedown

It’s hardly been a week since Lee Anderson defected to the flanks of Reform UK and already the red wall rottweiler is making headlines again. Anderson put Rebecca Knox, chair of Dorset’s fire and rescue authority, on the spot at a Home Affairs Committee meeting today, after she described her own force as ‘institutionally racist’. When Anderson probed what that actually meant, Knox was a little lost for words: LA: So could you please tell me, councillor, what unfair advantages white people have in your force? RK: I would hope none… not advantages. Did I hear you…? LA: Yeah, do they have any advantages? RK: No. LA: So then how