Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

How to vote for Boris

If you’re voting in London tomorrow, you are going to be given three ballot papers—one for the mayoralty, one for the constituency section of the London assembly and one for the proportional vote. In the mayoral vote, you can vote for a first preference—we’d recommend putting a tick next to Boris—and a second preference. If your first preference is Boris or Ken, then your second preference is irrelevant. But if you’re voting for one of the other candidates, your second preference is key. In reality, there’s not much point putting anyone other than one of the two leading candidates as your second preference as the votes will be reallocated between

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron is walking into an elephant trap on 42 days

Like Fraser, I thought that David Cameron went on the wrong topic today. But I think the bigger mistake the Tories might be making is in trying to turn 42 days into a trial of Brown’s political strength. Regardless of what one thinks about 42 days, and a good case can be made both ways, there is something deeply unappealing about people playing politics with the issue. Now, you can say that both sides are doing it but today Cameron looked like the main offender. The Tories also face the problem of what do they do if, as looks likely, they defeat Brown on this issue. The sight of them

James Forsyth James Forsyth

In crisis, there’ll be an opportunity for Brown

If Livingstone loses on Thursday and the Labour vote slumps elsewhere in the country, the headlines for Gordon Brown will be dire and he’ll be plunged further into the mire. But in this crisis there will be a brief window of opportunity for him. The press will be in full ‘government in crisis mode’ and getting so excited by the remote prospect of a leadership challenge that Brown will actually have the freedom to carry out a drastic reshuffle. It will be embarrassing and humiliating for Brown to sack or demote those who he chose less than a year ago, but Brown will already be embarrassed and humiliated so he

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A better PMQs for Brown

In a not-very-hotly contested category, this was perhaps Gordon Brown’s best PMQs performance. His content wasn’t any more accurate, but sounding confident is half the battle. And he did. He didn’t stutter or garble his words and looked much more relaxed. As ever, there’s a bit of Dr Johnson’s dog about this – but Cameron chose the wrong issue and if he expected Brown to crumble he was mistaken. A day ahead of the local elections, Cameron could and should have picked a doorstep issue. Instead he went on the case for 42 day detention without trial. Brown seemed quite optimistic about it. When he was defending it, I fancied

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Today’s Brownies

Gordon Brown gives interviews like he is programming a computer. In his pre-election appearance on Today at 8.10am he fired off statistics, as if they spoke for themselves – sounding passionate, one might argue, and knowledgeable. But on several areas his information was misleading or simply false. Here’s what jumped out at me. 1). “We’re about to take a million children out of poverty”. A million children? The figure is 600,000 from the benchmark year of 1998/99, and that’s going by his narrow definition of children whose parents have incomes below 60% of the median. Choose a different threshold, say 40%, and it’s 400,000. Millions is spent trying to massage

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

What Bush Hath Wrought

Via Marc Ambinder, this graph is not, shall we say, good news for the Republican party’s long-term prospects. Sure, some of these young voters will likely drift to the right in years to come, but most people tend to fix their party identification early and hold on to it doggedly. And of course young voters today aren’t spooked by the legacy of the 1970s the way their parents’ generation is. Equally, to the extent (possibly exaggerated) that Iraq will have a lasting, quasi-seismic impact on American politics it seems, right now, likely to damage the Republican party more than the Democrats. That said, I suspect that it’s the GOP’s domestic

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown plans a by-election bounce

Labour’s losing no time on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election – due three weeks on Thursday (May 22). I suspect they believe this will be a much-needed fillip to Brown. Sure, Gwyneth Dunwoody had a 7,000 majority – but it’s the type of seat Cameron needs if he is to win the kind of majority projected by the ICM/News of the World poll at the weekend. Therefore if Labour retains it, Brown can genuinely claim it is an achievement of sorts. Also you can bet the LibDems will turn up in their caravans, and gobble an unfair share of the anti-Brown vote. So a very small chance of a Tory

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Hoey’s ‘clarification’ is perfectly compatible with voting for Boris

Reading Kate Hoey’s ‘clarification’, which Fraser just posted, this sentence jumped out at me. I will be voting for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday. Note, no mention of Ken. Now, considering that everyone who votes in London on Thursday will have the opportunity to vote on three ballot papers—one for Mayor, one for the constituency element of the London Assembly and one for the proportional element–a lawyer would tell you that Hoey could vote for Boris on Thursday while fulfilling her pledge to vote ‘for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday.’ Hoey says that she is not endorsing Boris for mayor, but you don’t need to endorse someone to vote

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Hoey’s clarification

A chastened and whipped Kate Hoey has, via the Labour Party HQ, issued this “clarification”:  “The key part of the Boris Johnson statement – ie that I will be the first member of his administration – is wrong.  I have simply agreed to act in a similar position, for example to Conservative MPs John Bercow and Patrick Mercer – in that I have said that I will advise on a non-partisan basis in respect of my lifetime commitment to bringing sport to the people of London. This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson for Mayor. I will be voting for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday. I am

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne didn’t strike out

I’m not so sure that George Osborne did gaffe when he hinted yesterday that he’d crack down on the power of public sector unions. Labour is stoking the row. But if this provokes Brown to pose as the strikers’ friend, then good luck to him. I know which side the public will be on. In the real world, final salary pension schemes are being closed to new entrants nationwide as funds adjust to Brown’s pension raid (which has depleted the value of our collective retirement cash by at least £100bn). We are all victims, not just Grangemouth workers. Most workers are getting a below-RPI inflation pay rise (average 2.9 percent

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Hoey’s status uncertain

This morning, Boris Johnson announced that Kate Hoey would be his advisor on sport and the Olympics, making Hoey’s attempt to pass off her planned appearance with Boris at a ballet school in her constituency as nothing unusual appear distinctly disingenuous. Hoey’s status in the Labour party is now uncertain. Boulton and Co reports that when its Niall Paterson asked Geoff Hoon if he would take the whip away from her, Hoon responded “We’ll see”. Hoey’s Vauxhall seat is safe Labour; she received more than 50 percent of the vote at the last election.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Physician heal thyself

After Nick Clegg yesterday, it was David Cameron’s turn to do The Today Programme pre-local election interview this morning. John Humphrys was in particularly combative form, interrupting at every opportunity. But the whole technique descended into farce when Humprhys asked Cameron if he had failed to meet his promise to end Punch and Judy politics. Cameron, whose PMQs performances are pure Punch and Judy, admitted that he hadn’t. But Humphrys harried him so much that Cameron could not get out his explanation for why he had not been able to keep this promise. The irony of this seemed lost on Humphrys.  Admittedly, Cameron is a master at turning the tables on

Monday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Iraq in comparative perspective

Fred Kagan, one of the architects of the surge, sets out how he thinks we should measure progress in Iraq in the latest Weekly Standard. The whole piece is worth reading but this point jumped out at me: “Much has been made of the inadequacy of the Iraqi Security Forces’ performance in Basra. If the Pakistani army had performed half as well in its efforts to clear al Qaeda out of the tribal areas, we would be cheering. Instead, Pakistani soldiers surrendered to al Qaeda by the hundreds, and Islamabad shut the operation down; it is now apparently on the verge of a deal with the terrorist leader who killed

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron tries to break free from Labour’s poverty of thought

I doubt many headlines will come from David Cameron’s poverty speech in Euston today, but for those looking to see him wrestle his way out of Labour’s way of thinking and towards a Tory solution there was plenty to see. Here’s the problem as I see it. Brown has long understood that metrics are power. He who chooses the yardstick wins the battle – and if he defined “poverty” as the number of people below the 60% median income, he can fake progress. For ten years, instead of tackling poverty, he has used the tax credit system to manipulate the results of this very specific target. And for ten years,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What does Gordon do on May 2nd?

At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, an occupational hazard of punditry, there are some interesting thoughts out there about what Gordon will do on May 2nd if the polls are right. Ben Brogan argues that what the Prime Minister needs is a “political henchman”, someone who can both give him political advice and tell him when he’s wrong. One senior Whitehall source even suggested to Ben that Alastair Campbell would relish the opportunity to return to the fray. Meanwhile over at Three Line Whip, Andy Porter outlines the bold reshuffle that Gordon is probably too cautious to carry out but that is being whispered about: Alistair Darling from

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

We’re just showing the government how to do it, says Cameron

Team Osborne get in touch in relation to my last post. Yes it is an old idea, they say, but Labour is pussyfooting around. They would implement it properly. Cameron has just walked into the room… Let’s see how he does. Update: At his speech in Euston, Cameron has just sought to make a virtue of this. Labour has only now given details about the funding and timetable of their financial advice centres. We have made the government’s decision for them, says Cameron. Show them how it can be done.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Tory answer to the credit crunch should be less tax not pinching more Brown ideas

The other day I blogged how the Tories are engaging in a “fool’s game” of trying to work out what the government will announce, beating them to it, and then claiming they were the first mover, They appear to be at it again today with a proposal for independent financial advice centres. Downing Street is already pointing out that the Tory idea looks walks, talks, sounds and smells pretty much like the National Money Guidance Service proposed by Otto Thoresen in a Treasury review a few weeks back. He suggested the cost should be split between the banks and the government – the Tories say the banks should fund the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Boris leads by 11 in final YouGov poll

The last Monday YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has Boris on 46 percent to Ken’s 35. Once the second preferences are factored in, Boris leads Ken 55 to 45. If you still haven’t decided who to vote for, do read Matt’s piece in the magazine on why Boris is the right man for London.  

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Jump-starting social mobility

Gary Duncan has an important piece in this morning’s Times keying off Reform’s report on social mobility. As Gary writes, “The realities behind Mr Brown’s rhetoric on poverty are a lot less impressive than his boasts of being the best friend of the disadvantaged imply. The stark truth is that after a decade of Labour Government, Britain is a nation of greater income inequality, in which the plight of the very poor has worsened. True, Labour has succeeded in lifting half a million children out of poverty since 1998. Yet the Government’s figures are based on a poverty line drawn at 60 per cent of average incomes. If it is