Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
There we have it – the Tories have gained outright control of Bury. It’s a key victory – perhaps even more significant than the Southampton result – and it fits neatly into a pattern of strong Tory support in the North of the country. Team Cameron really couldn’t have hoped for things to go better than they have been doing. No wonder they’re sounding more and more bullish about the final result.
The BBC is now predicting that Labour’s vote share will be only 24 percent, a disaster for Gordon Brown. William Hague is bullish, claiming that tonight is a big step forward for the Conservatives. Ed Miliband, now on for Tessa Jowell, and has conceded that the government has had a bad few months. Doing a Fraser and thinking forward to Labour without Brown, you have to wonder whether Ed Miliband might be a contender. He is certainly a better media performer than the vast majority of the cabinet.
The Tory victory in Southampton is the first sign that something big might be happening tonight; no one had this one down as a possible change. John Denham is blustering terribly on the BBC trying to explain the result away. Meanwhile, Tessa Jowell—while not conceding London—is taking every opportunity to distance Labour nationally from the London result, hardly a sign of confidence.
Ken or Boris: it’s still anyone’s guess. But whoever wins, (and I do hope Pete and Fraser are right to be optimistic) the question remains: what will they do without each other? One of the funniest elements of this mayoral contest has been that, whilst their supporters are animated by ferocious hatred of the other side, Ken and Boris appear to have developed great mutual respect. Ken’s said he’d give Boris a job, and Boris also seems strangely fond of Ken. It’s a relationship you don’t see much outside comic books: the super-hero/super-villain, love/hate thing. Like Batman and the Joker, they’re locked in mortal combat, but come the weekend, I reckon they’ll both be feeling
George Osborne really is in his element on the BBC’s election night special. Every time Dimbleby comes to him, Osborne stresses how this is Brown’s first electoral test and if things are as bad as they look for Labour, Brown has some explaining to do. No Tory politician enjoys getting under Brown’s skin more than Osborne does. Update: Ben Brogan predicts Labour has slipped below 25 percent, a disaster for Brown, while Sky is mapping these results onto a general election and predicting a Tory majority of 144.
If you want to know why blogs have the edge over newspapers on election night, take a look at tomorrow’s newspapers. I’ve just finished reviewing them on Sky News alongside Roger Alton, the Spectator’s sports columnist (other job: editor-in-waiting of The Independent). Knowing nothing, what can the papers do? Only The Sun predicts a big Tory win. The others have chosen disposable stories destined for the spike. The Mail has gone on drunken kids, the Telegraph has lifted an old trade mag story about Chinese submarine bases, the Indy on an obscure poll revealing that folk don’t like green taxes. Truth is, things won’t be much clearer by the times
There are many in small ‘c’ conservative circles who do not yet love David Cameron—often this has more to do with them than Cameron—but no one can credibly claim that he is not a huge asset to the Tory party. The BBC exit poll shows that 68 percent of voters think Cameron is an asset to the party and only 24 percent say he’s a liability. By contrast, Brown’s net rating is minus ten.
A poor early result for the Tories, failing to take Worcester. The home of Worcester Woman has not yet left Labour all together, which is consolation for Gordon Brown.
Tessa Jowell, George Osborne and Charlie Kennedy just got the chance to set expectations for their respective parties on the BBC’s election special and their answers were rather revealing. Jowell waffled her way through Dimbleby’s question about whether she has a sense of foreboding, stressing that she wasn’t going to pre-judge anything. Osborne, who seemed even more confident than usual, instantly set this up as a test of Gordon Brown’s premiership, emphasising that it was his first electoral test. Kennedy downplayed Lib Dem’s chances. The BBC’s key ward projections are suggesting that the Tories have had a god night, the Lib Dems a bad one and Labour a mediocre one.
As best I can tell the newspapers have largely ignored the characteristically appalling Criminal Justice and Immigration Bill that’s currently making its way through parliament. This BBC article is the only mainstream piece I – or rather Google News – can find that talks about its pornography clauses. Thanks god for Steven Poole then, who explains the terrible thinking (to dignify the coherence and intelligence of the government’s position) behind the creation of yet more victimless “crimes” here: The British government, net exporter of liberty, is going to make it a criminal offence, punishable by a prison term of five years, to have in one’s possession an image or video
I’m very much inclined to believe Conservative Home’s claim that Boris has won London, but my faith has been bolstered by Nick Robinson’s latest blog post. Here’s how he starts and finishes: “The Tories are beginning to believe that Boris has beaten Ken in London.” “The key to the result will be who was more motivated to vote – Ken haters or Boris fearers. My guess, the haters may just have it.”
The Tories have held Tamworth, gaining one seat in the process. Expect a flurry of results around 23:30.
I have just spoken to a senior Labour staffer (not Douglas Alexander!) who tells me they are seeing the “mirror image” of what I am hearing from the Tories. That is to say: high turnout in the Labour supporting inner city areas, much better than they thought. There is an obvious risk that Labour only looks at zones 1-2, the Tories at Greater London and both get inflated expectations.
The early word isn’t good for Labour. A few outlets have called the mayoral election for Boris. And now Benedict Brogan and Sam Coates reveal some Labour insiders think the Tories could hit around 47 percent of the vote. A cyncial attempt by Team Brown to alter expectations? Or are Labour heading for even more of a battering than we expected?
You can add PoliticalBetting.com and Betfair to the list of those who have called the election for Boris.
Anyone who follows ConservativeHome.com know it doesn’t take fliers. And it has just called the election for Boris. You may think: wishful thinking from those Tories. But no website is better plugged in to what’s happening out there; what the activists and tellers are saying. My sources report massive turnout in strong Tory areas like Chingford. I suspect this year, as with last, the new media will be ahead of the broadcast. And Conservativehome will be ahead of the new media. I am here in the Sky News green room with William Hague and Douglas Alexander. Rangers victory has cheered Dougie up anyway. Something tells me it will be the only
Here’s what ConservativeHome have to say: “Based on a wide range of conversations we’ve had throughout the day with people in the field and with Tory and other insiders we are confident that on the basis of patterns of turnout, postal votes and canvass returns Boris Johnson has been elected Mayor of London.” Fingers crossed that they’re right.
5, 4, 3, 2, 1 … and polls are now closed. Exit poll data should be filtering through soon. We’ll keep you informed.
Hm, I’m not sure about this. But according to Harry’s Place, Ken may once have been a Young Conservative. Discuss…
Stay with Coffee House tonight for all the latest on the local elections. Expect frequent updates, as well as analysis from Matthew d’Ancona, Fraser Nelson, Mary Wakefield, James Forsyth and Peter Hoskin. In the meantime, you can always flick through the briefing that the Electoral Reform Society has put together. When are results coming in? Where are the key battles being fought? Find all the answers in its well-informed pages.