Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
The latest William Hills odds for the next leader of the Labour party make interesting reading in the light of last night’s results and the list of cabinet ministers at risk. D Miliband 2/1 E Balls 5/1 A Johnson 7/1 J Straw 10/1 J Purnell 10/1 J Denham 14/1 A Burnham 14/1 Y Cooper 16/1 H Benn 16/1 D Alexander 16/1 E Miliband 16/1 H Harman 20/1 Personally, I quite fancy a sly fiver on Jon Cruddas but William Hills doesn’t offer odds on him yet.
Over at Comment Central, a senior Conservative tells Daniel Finkelstein that “Boris has got” the role of mayor. It isn’t quite the fat lady singing, but enough for the Times to run an article on. Not too long to wait now for proper confirmation…
A nice summary from ConservativeHome: “All these ministers would lose their seats if last night’s elections were repeated at the General: Ed Balls, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, John Hutton, Caroline Flint, Ruth Kelly, John Denham.”
James reported on Geoff Hoon’s remarkable denial over his party’s local election results. Now, some computer whizz has put together an irreverent video clip – here it is, for your viewing pleasure:
Ben Brogan reports that just to make things even worse for Labour, the incoming General Secretary has resigned. Meanwhile, even Jackie Ashley is saying that Brown only has until the party conference to sort himself out. Somewhere, Cherie Blair is laughing her head off.
Just an update on some of the election figures: 139 of 159 councils have now declared their results, and it just gets better and better for the Tories. They’ve picked up 221 seats; Labour have lost 257; and the Lib Dems have picked up 29. But the battering’s not over for Labour – Sky are reporting that they’re set to lose an astonishing 329 seats. A quick look at this nifty New Statesman / Politics Home graphic shows that the Tories are firmly in champagne territory, whilst Team Brown are probably headbutting the panic button. As far as the mayoral race is concered, Sky are ahead of the game once again. Adam Boulton’s just reported
“So fair and foul a day I have not seen” – Macbeth Act 1, Scene 3 Can this beautiful May afternoon get any worse for McBrown? Em, yes. Stuart Wheeler has been granted permission to hold a High Court hearing over the Government’s refusal to hold a referendum on the renamed EU Constitution. Even Open Europe didn’t expect him to get a full hearing on this – but he hired a top QC and at the High Court Mr Justice Owen has said Wheeler has an “arguable case.” The hearing is due on the 9th and 10th June – which raises questions as to whether the issue is now sub judice.
Steve Richards is one of the most perceptive commentators on the left, he’s also generally inclined to give Gordon Brown a pretty fair shake. So, his piece for Open House detailing how impressive the Tory achievement last night was and how Labour has ‘no clear route’ towards salvaging its general election chances is all the more devastating. Here’s how Richards starts: There are no qualifications. The election results are dire for Labour and a triumph for the Conservatives. The Conservatives can claim much more credibly now that they are on course to win a substantial majority in a general election. David Cameron has managed to achieve this without the equivalent
The Tories have an open road ahead of them. Until at least the party conference season, Labour will be in disarray. This provides the Tory with a real opportunity to set the political agenda and lock in the 44 percent of the vote they achieved last night. Boldness now would be seen as a sign of confidence not panic. Perhaps, the most important task for Cameron and Osborne is to set out how they would shift the tax burden from work to waste. A more detailed tax policy to go alongside the already impressive work the Tories have rolled out on education and welfare would give the Tories the core
The BBC are confirming that the Tories have taken North Tyneside, a nice psychological boost for the party.
I’ve just done BBC World Service with Martin Bright, my counterpart at the New Statesman. We’re pitched against each other quite a lot – the theory being that I’m a right-winger, he’s a left-winger and we’ll go at each other. Problem is, we agree on most things – and I certainly won’t demur from his verdict on last night. “I don’t think anyone thought the results could be quite as devastating for Labour,” he said. “These are national issues. It’s very difficult to see this as anything else. A year ago, possibly even six months ago, people didn’t think there was a realistic prospect of a Conservative government. That has
When considering what effect these results will have on the mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party, it is worth remembering that most people are blaming Labour’s ghastly performance on the abolition of the 10p tax band. Now, who was responsible for that? G. Brown. If Boris has won London—which seems almost certain, watch to see what Ken says about why he lost. If he blames his defeat on Labour’s national unpopularity, he will heighten the skittish mood among Labour MPs.
Last night gave yet another example of the Tories’ more finely-tuned internet operation. A visit to their website, and you’d find twitter feeds and behind-the-scenes video footage (the most recent of which you can watch below). Not vote-winners yesterday, I know, but quite engaging nonetheless. None of these features graced the Labour site – no live coverage there at all, in fact. Then again, when you’ve got nothing but bad news to report… Anyway, here’s Cameron & Co. in CCHQ last night:
For those who missed the drama of last night, a quick round-up… At time of writing, results have come in for 100 of 159 councils. So far, the Tories have gained 147 seats and 8 councils; Labour have lost 162 seats and 6 councils; and the Lib Dems have gained 9 seats and lost 1 council. In terms of the overall share of the vote, it’s projected to be – Tories, 44 percent; Lib Dems, 25 percent; and Labour, 24 percent. An absolute battering for Labour, then. And joy for the Tories, who have soared to the upper end of their expectations, claiming key victories in Bury and Southampton along the way. So where does this leave Gordon Brown? Well, he’s just
Jeremy Vine just sent a chill down the spine of Labour MPs with extrapolation for how many MPs each party would have if the parties received the same vote-shares in a general election. Labour would be down to fewer than 170 MPs, while the Tories would have nigh-on 400. If, as expected, London falls to the Tories tomorrow, many Labour MPs are going to press the panic button.
So, when was the last year Labour did so badly? “Since records began in 1973” say the Tories but surely they can do better than that. Michael Portillo, whom I was sitting beside for an hour as we waited to be called by the BBC, pointed out that there may not be equivalent national share calculated before then but other data must exist. We reckoned that the relatively late emergence of the LibDems as a third force must mean this was Labour’s worst showing since the war. But on the way out, Tony Travers told me he reckons it’s the worst since 1968. While the rest of the world was
In the first elections since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, Labour’s national vote share fell to 24 percent. Labour’s worst result in a generation is bound to further undermine Brown’s position. By contrast, the Tories had a good night. Their national vote share rose to 44 percent and they had a few spectacular results, including a win in Southampton and a performance that shows that they have friends in the north. However, the biggest prize may still await them: the London mayoralty. There is a growing consensus among political pundits that Boris Johnson has won. If that is the case, then May 1st 2008 might become the night when it
If the BBC national projections aren’t giving Brown a headache right now, then this Times prediction sure will. It suggests that Labour’s on course to lose around 270 seats. That’s some distance from the 200 losses that party insiders expected before the elections, and would leave our Prime Minister stranded in grim territory.
Geoff Hoon is turning in one of the worst TV performances I’ve ever seen by a front-line politician. His attempt to pretend that the results really aren’t that bad is making him look like Baghdad Bob.
The national vote equivalents that the BBC just projected are dire for Gordon Brown. Under him, Labour are doing worse than they were under Tony Blair at the height of public discontent with the Iraq war. The Tories are up to 44 percent, a formidable showing and one that was at the high end of expectations for them at the beginning of the night. Nick Clegg will be relieved to have forced Labour into third. Geoff Hoon is trying to dismiss the Tory performance tonight and suggests that Cameron won’t be too happy with the results, he just sounds ridiculous though.