Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron delivers a PMQs message to Crewe and Nantwich

The quick, capsule review of today’s PMQs:  Brown was embarrassing.  Cameron tore him apart. Now for a bit more detail.  Cameron led on the humanitarian situation in Burma – the stories coming from that stricken country are getting worse by the day, and the Prime Minister gave his assurances that he’s working to increase the amount of aid reaching the ground. Ok, so he doesn’t seem to have achieved much so far, but Cameron rightly declined from engaging in political tittle-tattle over it. Next came Crewe and Nantwich, and Cameron brought it all back to the 10p tax issue.  Will Alistair Darling’s compensation package only apply for one year?  If so, what

Peter Hoskin

PMQs footage

Courtesy of Politics Home, here’s the main exchange between Cameron and Brown in PMQs.  Expect the Coffee House take on things shortly.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Westminster braced for a Labour massacre

Like Pete, I have picked up on hesitancy in some parts of Crewe – mainly from Tory activists who realise this is a “send Brown a message” by-election rather than a mandate for Conservatism. But a win is a win – and in Westminster, at least, Tories are expecting a mammoth victory. One Shadow Cabinet member told me his prediction and swore me to secrecy – safe to say, it was a resolutely optimistic one. “Expectations management has gone out of the window” said one senior figure in the campaign. There’s talk about Brown going into hiding in his constituency over the weekend; of next week’s recess meaning the only

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Line of the Day

Jim Henley looks forward to the Libertarian Party convention this weekend. After a (very) brief trawl through the candidates he writes: That leaves Bob Barr, who could become the first candidate ever to make the leap from my blogroll to the presidential nomination of an established political party. I suspected my blogroll needed work, now I know it does…

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Teddy Kennedy, liberal lion

Today, Teddy Kennedy’s doctors announced that he has a malignant brain tumour. This is sad news. Whatever one thinks of Kennedy’s politics, there’s little doubt that he’s been the most effective legislator in recent US history. The finest speech Teddy Kennedy has ever given was at the 1980 Democratic convention. Kennedy had unsuccessfully challenged President Carter for the Democratic nomination and lost fairly comfortably but carried his fight all the way to the convention. His address was both beautifully crafted and delivered. Indeed, it was so good that it overshadowed Carter receiving the actual nomination. The peroration, which you can listen to below, was particularly fine.

Peter Hoskin

Do Labour ministers want to lose the by-election?

We all know that there are plenty of knives out for Gordon Brown in the Labour Party.  But a detail in this post by Benedict Brogan is still pretty astonishing.  He writes of a Labour minister who said he’d like the party to be defeated in Crewe and Nantwich by a Tory landslide, so they can “force the bastard out”.  Unfortunately, Brogan’s “Tory informant” didn’t reveal who that minister was.  Any guesses?

Peter Hoskin

Are the Tories dead certs in Crewe and Nantwich?

Adam Boulton & Co. bring us news that Ladbrokes have closed their books on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, because the Tories are “dead cert winners”.  Of course, this chimes with all the polls we’ve been reading recently, as well as with the Tory euphoria around Westminster.  But are things really that certain?  Tories on the ground in Crewe don’t think so – one campaign leader there told us there could be “only a few hundred votes in it either way”.  Watch this space.

Peter Hoskin

Will Labour’s expectation management backfire (again)

As James says, if Labour rack up a double-digit defeat in Crewe and Nantwich, then things might start to look even nastier for Gordon Brown – to the point that he may face a leadership challenge or two. I’m sure Labour will be aware of that, but they’re certainly not saying it. Sam Coates points out over at Red Box that a double-digit defeat is well within the boundaries of what the party is spinning as a “reasonable result”. It’s clearly a spot of expectation management – take things to their most pessimistic extreme, and then shrug off a heavy defeat as a “good thing”. Problem is, Labour haven’t been too good at

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The spread in Crewe

Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was that there “a very small chance of a Tory victory”. If Labour do lose, the margin of defeat will be key to Brown’s prospects. A Labour loss by up to four points has already been factored into the Brown share price. So, it would probably not change that much though it would lead to a

Peter Hoskin

The Speaker relents

When the High Court turned down the Michael Martin-led attempt to block the disclosure of MPs expenses, the worry was that the Speaker would launch an appeal.  Well – by way of an update – Martin & Co. last night decided not to fight the original ruling.  The Speaker’s comported himself so badly throughout all of this, that this latest move’s a welcome surprise.  And now we can expect to see full expense details for 14 MPs – including Cameron and Brown – on Friday, with details for all MPs following in October.  I wonder whether any are dreading the day.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A YouTube kicking might help Brown

I took part in an LBC radio debate this morning about Gordon Brown’s YouTube initiative with Nick Ferrari, radio’s equivalent to a morning Bloody Mary. A LBC reporter has sent in her own question via video phone – was Blair right to think you have no chance against David Cameron? It won’t get past the censors, of course – party political content. So far 20 videos have, and I surveyed them this morning. Some literally start with Young People thanking the Dear Leader for “this brilliant opportunity” to question him on YouTube with all the authenticity of a backbencher reading a planted question at PMQs. None were about tax or

Peter Hoskin

Is Milburn planning a leadership challenge?

According to Mike Smithson at Political Betting, Alan Milburn may be planning to challenge Brown for the Labour leadership, in the aftermath of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Says Smithson: “I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this weekend would be the ideal time to strike.” Could this be true?

Peter Hoskin

Clegg talks tax

Nick Clegg’s giving a speech at Policy Exchange this morning, in which he’ll announce his intention to cut taxes for low and middle income earners. In many respects, it’s a landmark moment for the Lib Dems (although Clegg’s political invisibility will probably negate any positive effects), and it’s certainly good for the Tories. When the Lib Dem leader can talk so openly about tax cuts, then you know the New Labour mantra “tax cuts = worse public services” is in its death throes. The new emphasis is on loosening the fiscal squeeze that people face. Clegg’s words will be a few more drops in the tidal shift. And will make

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

What Brown Hath Wrought

That’s the latest Guardian/ICM poll. This is Labour’s lowest level of support since the poll began in 1984. There’s no obvious way out for Labour. Sure, they could ditch Gordon but any successor would, I suspect, be compelled to call an election since I think it unlikely the public will stomach consecutive unelected Prime Ministers and it’s equally unlikely that a new leader could actually win an election anyway. The party’s over – as it deserves to be since no party should be in office for more than a decade anyway.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

One to watch

John Denham is now only 7 to 1 to be the next leader of the Labour party and Mike Smithson is tipping him as the potential Gordon replacement best placed to keep the government alive in the south. So, I was interested to see how he’d do on Straight Talk which is one of the tougher, most intellectually rigorous interviews out there. (You can watch the interview here) Denham stands up pretty well; he does a particularly nice job of arguing that there’s no contradiction between courting the Labour base and the aspirational classes. However, his understated style makes it hard to see him as a leader. One thing worth

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Even the Prime Minister’s jokes are Brownies

Like Matt, I was genuinely impressed by the defrosted Gordon Brown on display at the Google conference. However – and churlish though it may be – I’d like to point out that his Einstein joke (where he swaps places with his chauffeur) is a Brownie. The genesis of this fake and oft-repeated tale is here. You may think the PM’s claim to have seen a banner saying “worldwide campaign against globalisation” is real because he used it in Jan08, Jul07, Mar07, Jan07 and Nov06 and (first) in a Newsweek article in Sep06. My guess is that he spotted this slogan not in a demo, but in an Apr00 article by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour support is now the lowest it has ever been in The Guardian / ICM poll

A new ICM poll for The Guardian has the Tories up two on 41, Labour down seven to 27 and the Lib Dems on 22, a three point rise on last month. This is the lowest level of support for Labour ever recorded in The Guardian / ICM poll which started in1984.   There is no silver lining to the poll for Brown. He trails Cameron on every attribute of leadership that ICM asked about and three quarters of people who voted Labour in 2005 think Blair was a better Prime Minister than Brown. Update: The Independent also has a new poll out which has the Tories 13 ahead in Crewe and

Peter Hoskin

Gordon Brown 2.0

Here’s footage of Gordon Brown’s “confident, relaxed and witty” speech at Google Zeitgeist earlier today.  What do CoffeeHousers make of it?

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The odds shorten for Purnell

I know many CoffeeHousers will take some time to forgive me for suggesting James Purnell as the best chance for Labour. But I am not alone. A rush of money on him has led Ladbrokes to make him joint second favourite to succeed Brown at 6/1. The curse of being the favourite still falls upon David Miliband at 5/2. Alan Johnson, whom the Tories fear the most, is also on 6/1. Here is the full list. David Miliband — 5/2 Alan Johnson — 6/1 James Purnell — 6/1 Jack Straw — 7/1 John Denham — 7/1 Ed Balls — 8/1 Jon Cruddas — 10/1 Andy Burnham — 16/1 Ed Miliband

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour’s campaign in Crewe is now beyond parody

Here’s the latest quote from Tamsin Dunwoody: “I am just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job” Now, come on Tamsin—you’re also the daughter of two MPs, the grandaughter of a peer, a former member of the Welsh Assembly and a university graduate. PS: The quote is from Sky’s online debate between the main candidates which is well worth reading in full.