Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Tackling poverty | 25 July 2008

Today’s march on poverty – with church leaders at the front; Gordon Brown giving the sermon – overlooks an important point. Thanks to global capitalism, we are living in a golden age of poverty reduction: never in human history has the West’s wealth been shared more quickly with the developing world, and to such incredible effect. According to the World Bank, the number in extreme poverty has dropped from 40% in 1981 to 21% in 2001. Poverty has fallen most where capitalism has done best. That is why the bulk of the drop in world poverty is done by India and China. “China prices” mean cheap goods for us –

Thursday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

How Osborne should manage the budget

Reading George Osborne’s responses to Coffee House has made clearer my own advice to him: save money by decelerating NHS and education budget increases. Max out with rhetoric about “we will outspend Labour” and say “every penny of Brown’s spending will be locked in” etc. It will all be true. But simply increase at very low rates – 0.5% to 1% in real terms. By 2010, with unemployment and repossessions soaring, the public will be in the mood to hear that the government is also tightening its belt. Given that the NHS has so little to show for the doubling of its budget, it will hardly notice if it is

Peter Hoskin

Osborne responds – Part I

Here are George Osborne’s answers to the first five questions put forward by CoffeeHousers: Tiberius “I understand the reasons for not committing to upfront tax cuts, but there are bound to be some savings available from reform. Do you have any idea at this stage how much could be available, and where would you seek to allocate any such savings?” Thanks Tiberius. Our judgement call two years ago not to commit to upfront tax cuts, in spite of pressure from many people, has clearly been vindicated by events. When it comes to efficiency savings, we have made it clear that cutting wasteful spending is a key part of our plans.

Peter Hoskin

What the Tories think of James Purnell

Ok, so it seems like you CoffeeHousers generally don’t agree with our appraisal of James Purnell (exemplified by Fraser’s article “Meet James Purnell: the best hope Labour has of avoiding disaster”). But what does the Tory party think of the work and pensions secretary?  Here’s a hefty quote from Tara Hamilton-Miller’s excellent article in the New Statesman today, outlining just that: “Back in the office, Tories have been checking out James Purnell, the new young buck many suggest could be the saviour of Brown’s crumbling party. The Central Office staff don’t get it. Says one Tory aide: “He’s a boy. I’m not convinced his own party buy him. Surely this is a case of hype

Peter Hoskin

What will tomorrow look like?

It’s by-election day today in Glasgow East, and you can expect frequent updates and analysis from the Coffee House team.  At the moment, the consensus is that it’s too close to call.  As Fraser said yesterday, the numbers suggest a narrow Labour victory, but – if you factor in low turnout and the mobilising power of the nationalists – that could be overturned quite easily. If the SNP do come out on top, then the British political landscape could start looking very different, very quickly.  Ominously for the Prime Minister, Steve Richards (who’s written the latest Spectator politics column, available here) reports in today’s Independent that Labour ministers may already

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Alan Johnson should save it for Brown

This must be the opposite of “rapid reaction”. Some two weeks late, Labour is responding to David Cameron’s speech in Glasgow. It is Alan Johnson who is trying to divine some clear, red water: “Before we evoke the Victorian notion of the deserving and undeserving poor we should take a moment to consider how complex these issues really are. Just as the government has a moral duty to tackle poverty and exclusion, so it also has a duty to address obesity. But this is not a licence to hector and lecture people on how they should spend their lives.” Consider this for a moment. A Labour government whose leader has

Peter Hoskin

Could this escalate?

Today’s Standard reports on an accusation that David Cameron is giving Tory donors free publicity by staging photo-calls at the factories they own. Of course, there may be nothing in it – and it’s hardly at the level of cash-for-honours. But, at the very least, it’s a reminder that Cameron needs to be very careful indeed. He projects high standards, and often talks about a “new politics” which does away with the less edifying aspects of Westminster politics. Good for him. But it means that the Tory leader could face a greater public backlash than other politicians, should he ever appear to be part of the problem rather than the solution.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The latest from Glasgow East

Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn’t a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying “too close to call”? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts: 1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn’t need to. I can believe this – I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.  2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign – ie, even if they

Peter Hoskin

More poll cheer for the Tories

Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson’s got the latest Ipsos MORI poll results.  They have a hefty, 20-point lead for the Tories.  Here are the numbers in full: Tories on 47 percent (up 2 from last month); Labour on 27 percent (down 2); and the Lib Dems 15 percent (down 1).

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The West needs to address the Pakistan problem

When I was in Afghanistan two months ago, I was told – with some pride – that no one had been killed by gunfire so far this year. It seems, alas, that the gun battles were delayed rather than cancelled. Today, the MoD has announced that a REME soldier, attached to the Paras, was killed – by a landmine, after coming under fire, taking the death toll to 111. Two other Paras were seriously wounded. My cover story for tomorrow’s magazine is about how the military believe the bombs, and many of the men they are fighting, are coming from the lawless Pakistan border territories. The Taliban operates with impunity

Peter Hoskin

Balls predicts a rocky autumn for Labour

Steve Richards has landed an interview with Ed Balls in today’s Independent.  The schools secretary discusses the Sats fiasco, but it’s the same old story – he declines to apologise, and frequently deploys the phrase “arm’s length”.  But he’s a bit more revealing when it comes to the subject of where it’s gone wrong for Gordon Brown this year, and what Labour’s prospects are for the future.  Here are some key quotes: “The 10p tax was a mistake. Other things have not gone right, sometimes through no fault of our own, sometimes because of ministerial decisions… …It’s going to get tougher before it gets easier. Higher gas and electricity bills

Leo McKinstry

Our lazy firemen must make a radical change

Britain’s firefighters are under-worked and inflexible, says Leo McKinstry. It’s time we created a unified emergency service A cooling breeze wafted through the plane trees under the inky-black Provence sky. In the distance, the band played as couples danced. The rural village’s annual summer celebration presented the gentlest of scenes. But suddenly there was a loud crash, followed by a commotion. I looked round to see the aftermath of a nasty accident. An elderly woman, standing near the dance area, had fallen over, badly gashing her mouth and breaking her front teeth. Within minutes, a red emergency vehicle arrived. ‘What use is that? This lady obviously needs an ambulance, not

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Responsibilty-dodger <em>extraordinaire</em>

Did any CoffeeHousers watch Ed Balls being grilled in the Commons, just over an hour ago?  Unfortunately, I had to miss it, but reading the transcripts over on Politics Home it seems like Balls is shamelessly continuing to dodge responsibility.  Here’s a snippet of what he had to say: “I share the frustration and anger – this should not have happened… …The contract with ETS had been drawn up at arms length to ministers – any contractual discussions are for QCA and ETS.” Gove’s reponse was typically punchy.  Here’s the killer line, which deserves to be plastered all over the news this evening: “Don’t pupils, parents and teachers deserve better than a Secretary of State

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Resigning was the best thing David Marshall ever did for Glasgow East

As soon as David Marshall resigned as Glasgow East’s MP, everyone was looking for the “real” story. Unkind souls say that most MPs stay in office through invalidity so their families can receive the mammoth death-in-service payout (a lump sum of four times their pensionable salary, plus whatever their ill-health pension would have been – details here). Given there are (scandalously) zero requirements made of an MP – you can jet off to Barbados for four years after being elected if you want – it is possible for the infirm to be elected from their hospital beds. So an MP who stands down due to ill health (like Marshall) is,

Peter Hoskin

The Purnell path to power

James Purnell is on manoeuvres.  That certainly seems to be the consensus, and it’s one that I agree with.  The same’s also been said of Ed Balls and David Miliband.  But I’m struck by just how differently Purnell is going about things from his potential rivals.  His approach could pay dividends. You see, the manoeuvres of Ed Balls and David Miliband have largely consisted of showy efforts of support for Gordon Brown – the kind that say “Vote for me, Labour MPs; I’m a good guy”.  Hardly any print or broadcast outlet has been spared their outpourings of devotion for the Dear Leader, and they’ve managed to cram in their “visions for the future of the party” whilst

Peter Hoskin

This has got to stop

The Sun reports that British taxpayers subsidised the House of Commons Refreshment Department to the tune of £5.5 million over the past year. That’s 43 percent of its running costs – and means that MPs enjoy cheaper drinks than the rest of the country, as well as 12 bars which operate without licence and with no restrictions on hours. I’d sound like a Viz letter writer if I fell back on the “It’s one rule for them, and another for us” cliché. But it’s perfectly applicable in this case… Hat-tip: Iain Dale

Monday

Peter Hoskin

A decreased lead for the Tories, but more bad news for Brown

The Guardian have just published their latest ICM poll.  The headline numbers: the Tories are on 43 percent (down 2 from last month); Labour on 28 percent (up 3); and the Lib Dems on 19 percent (down 1).  So Labour have cut into the Tory lead. When you look at the other findings, though, the picture looks bleaker for Brown.  The vast majority of respondents think the UK’s heading towards a recession.  And, when asked who they trust to run the economy, 46 percent picked Cameron and Osborne, compared to only 27 percent for Brown and Darling. It’s a similar story to the Times/Populus poll of a couple of weeks ago. The combination of an improved Labour position with

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

When did the moral crusade turn into a plateful of Brownies?

Gordon Brown must have been at his happiest in Opposition, delivering sermons about how Labour would deliver employment to cure the Tories’ wicked devil-take-the-hindmost approach. In launching the New Deal in Feb98, he had this to say: “Young people are our future. Yet unemployment among the under-25s is twice the national average”. It was true then. But the OECD data flagged up by David Willetts shows it is now a shameful four times the national average. Ten years ago, Brown called the unemployed young people “Major’s children.”  Major, of course, had a recession to contend with – last year, after a decade of growth, youth unemployment rose above the level Brown