Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

The day the fiscal rules died

So today’s the day; the day Alistair Darling will confirm that Brown’s current fiscal rules are to be scrapped.  Now, the rules have always been more of a fiddle than a useful economic tool – to meet the “golden rule” that the budget remains balanced over the course of the economic cycle, Brown blithely changed his definition of the economic cycle; and his use of off-balance sheet trickery to meet the “sustainable investment rule” is well-documented.  But the worry is that if those fiscal rules failed to constrain Brown, what will he be able to achieve – what debt will he be able to accrue – under a more “flexible”

Tom Bower

Brown has come full circle since 1988

Tom Bower, the Prime Minister’s biographer, says that Gordon’s reinvention as the socialist who can save capitalism is just the latest in a series of convenient masks he has donned Gordon Brown would probably prefer to forget his magic moment in the crowded House of Commons exactly 20 years ago, on 1 November 1988. In the midst of a withering attack against Nigel Lawson’s management of the faltering economy, the Labour front bencher pierced the Tory’s façade with deadly accuracy: ‘This is a boom based on credit.’ Labour MPs frenziedly cheered as Brown artfully mocked the forlorn-looking Chancellor for allowing consumption to spiral out of control and for offering consistently

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The debt contagion

I was joking when I said a few weeks ago that Gordon Brown spoke about the recession as if it were the SARS virus. But at his press conference this morning, and just now at the press conference with Sarkozy, he has used a new phrase: “stop the contagion”. Contagion? If it is, it was incubated in 11 Downing Street as he pumped the economy full of debt, in the hope that he’d never be found out and rates would not rise. The contagion kept touting dangerously underpriced debt until the average British household had borrowed 172 per cent of its income – twice as much as even the Italian

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Sloganeering | 28 October 2008

Danny Finkelstein argues that I am not “precise” when I say that the Tories have been equating tax cuts to instability – and, as ever, he’s right.  This is, happily, a historical argument as the Cameron project has evolved substantially since the first weeks when this “stability before tax cuts” slogan was implied. One does not hear it now, nor does one hear “sharing the proceeds of growth”. But to plot the right course for future, the mistakes of the past need to be identified. I believe “stability before tax cuts” to be one of those mistakes, and here’s why.   Political slogans are designed have two meanings: what they

Peter Hoskin

A grim statistic

According to the Financial Services Authority, home repossessions in the second quarter of 2008 were up 71 percent on the previous year.  With the financial and economic crises now biting even deeper, the figures for the third and fourth quarters of the year will most likely be even grimmer.  Of course, this tragic human element to the downturn presents a challenge to all the political parties: they need to devise ways to limit it.  But it also creates a particular problem for Gordon Brown: the more people feel the fiscal pain, the less likely they are to go along with the Our Economic Saviour narrative of the past few weeks.

Peter Hoskin

The Mandy factor

When Gordon Brown appointed Peter Mandelson to his Cabinet he may have grabbed the newspaper headlines, but the general sentiment was: be careful Prime Minister, this could backfire.  Already, Mandy’s return has prompted the whole Yachtgate scandal. And now the media have turned their attention to the recently-ennobled one’s links with Oleg Deripaska, Brown must be even more worried about what will emerge next.  The expectation that there’s more to come is reflected in a Politics Home poll of 100 Westminster insiders today – in which only 42 percent of respondents think that Mandelson will stay in his job until the next election.  So what do CoffeeHousers’ think: is this yet

Peter Hoskin

Encouraging signs for both Labour and the Tories

Today’s ComRes poll for the Independent has the Tories on 39 percent (down 1 from the ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday a couple of weeks back); Labour on 31 percent (no change); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (no change).  That means the Tory lead has been more than halved in the past two months, and that they’re now in hung parliament territory – all encouraging enough for Labour. But despite the “Brown bounces back” headline in the Indy, there’s no need for the Tories to get disheartened just yet.  This poll was conducted in the aftermath not only of the most positive coverage Brown’s received since the early days of his premiership, but also of

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Moving on?

So, George Osborne’s admitted that he “made a mistake” getting chummy with Oleg Deripaska in Corfu, and the Westminsterati are prepared to draw a line under his involvement in the Yachtgate scandal.  The Tories should now grasp this opportunity to completely remove themselves from the story.  And – however great the temptation may be – that means not prodding Peter Mandelson over his refusal to disclose more about his meetings with Deripaska. Two main reasons why: 1) It was Osborne’s attempt to rile Mandy that largely got him into this mess in the first place.  And 2) If the shadow chancellor is to regain any political capital he may have lost, he needs to demonstrate that he has risen above the tawdriness

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

A dynamic new approach for the Tories?

The debate about taxes was successfully closed down by Gordon Brown when he persuaded the Tories to equate tax cuts with instability. Actually, even Brown didn’t go this far – this “instability” point was Oliver Letwin’s. Even now, when the disastrous effects of Brown’s economic policy are painfully clear, it’s still hard to get a debate going about an alternative approach. So it was with much excitement that I picked up Art Laffer’s latest book in New York last week – the sort of title you just don’t see in Britain. “The End of Prosperity: How Higher Taxes Will Doom the Economy — If We Let it Happen”. He gives

Peter Hoskin

The Government’s new motto: Borrowing is Good

Do watch Brown’s speech to Imperial College earlier, in which he defends the Govenrment’s plan to increase public debt in order to spend, spend, spend our way out of recession (or at least that’s the theory).  It’s our PM doing what he does best – deviously shifting the economic narrative to suit his agenda – and doing it with great aplomb.  No longer is government debt something to be swept under the fiscal carpet in a series of dodgy off-balance sheet manoeuvres.  Rather, it’s something to be proud of: a badge of “responsibility” in these depressed times. Brown’s certainly an advocate of the Keynesian economics underpinning all these claims.  But

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

The storm rumbles on

There’s a sense this weekend that the media hurricane has moved on from George Osborne – leaving him bruised and bloodied, but unbowed – and is now bearing down on Peter Mandelson.  Sure, the Tories are still experiencing some turbulence: a story about how they should repay a loan from the Rothschilds, as well as some ex post facto analysis by the Sunday columnists.  But after his letter to the Times yesterday, the Key New Revelations are all about Lord Mandy.  And the questions being flung at him, about his links with Oleg Deripaska, are the more difficult to answer. The hope in Downing Street will be that the calls

Saturday

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s notes | 25 October 2008

But why did Nathaniel Rothschild write to the Times? Yes, he was genuinely annoyed that George Osborne had relayed Peter Mandelson’s disobliging remarks about Gordon Brown to the Sunday Times. The then Mr Mandelson was Mr Rothschild’s guest, as was Mr Osborne. Mr Osborne betrayed hospitality and strained an old friendship. That might have made Mr Rothschild tell Mr Osborne privately that he never wanted to see him again. It might even have made him ‘tell friends’ (as the press puts it) about the supposedly naughty behaviour of Mr Osborne in relation to Oleg Deripaska and his money. But why write a public letter? Mr Rothschild deals professionally with other

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

WEB EXCLUSIVE: debate report – “We were wrong to recognise Kosovo’s declaration of independence”

Motion: We were wrong to recognise Kosovo’s declaration of independence. Speakers For the motion Sir Ivor Roberts Misha Glenny Dragan Zupanjevac Against the motion Wolfgang Ischinger Paddy Ashdown Veton Surroi The voting tells the story. Before last Tuesday’s Kosovo debate most of the audience were unsure whether we were right to recognize Kosovo’s declaration of independence on February 17th 2008. BBC Balkans expert Alan Little introduced a ‘starry panel of commentators’ beginning with Sir Ivor Roberts, a former ambassador to Yugoslavia. Sir Ivor hoped that one day the people of the Balkans would ‘stop picking at the scabs of history – but the wounds are far too fresh for that.’

The Spectator

The Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year Awards | 25 October 2008

The final full week of nominations for The Spectator’s Readers’ Representative Award has brought forth nominations for two female MPs on opposite sides of the abortion debate, Diane Abbott and Nadine Dorries. Kate Smurthwaite applauds Abbott for tabling an amendment to the Human Fertilisation Embryology Bill which would allow women in Northern Ireland to have abortions. Smurthwaite says, ‘This would end the situation where 6,000 women a year are forced to save, borrow or steal £600 to £2,000 to travel to England to gain access to abortion services. It takes the bold view that a woman’s right to choose is just that — her right, and proposes that it apply

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Cameronian Unionism

A cynic might say David Cameron has an interest in a strong SNP. After all, a meaningful Tory revival in Scotland seems as far away as ever (though it would be closer if the SNP withered away) and this being so, the Tories have an interest in seeing the nationalists win Labour seats at the next election. In that limited sense then, to vote for the SNP is, in one respect, to express the preference that Cameron, not Gordon Brown be Prime Minister. And, of course, there are plenty of nationalists who think that a Tory victory at Westminster will be Scotland’s opportunity. (More on this later). Perhaps. So, a

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brother, can you spare £130 billion?

It’s funny to hear politicians solemnly talk about “debt-financing”, as if the cash comes down on a moonbeam from the lending gods. In truth, some poor souls have to buy the gilts the Treasury are flogging – and with what? Governments may well find it as hard as the rest of us to find creditors in this global downturn. Especially seeing as the Treasury is flogging a tanking pound, now tainted with the risk of Britain losing its AAA rating (unlikely, but so was the nationalisation of the banks). Consider the sheer scale of cash Brown wants from the City. In 2007/08 net gilt issuance was £29bn – bad enough,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Sterling plummets on the back of Brown’s debt-fuelled economy

The sterling crash has now begun in earnest. The pound has today (today!) fallen 9% against the Yen and is off 4% against the dollar to a lowly $1.56 with forecasts of $1.40 or lower next year. Against any other currency you may mention, it’s now plunging. The proximate cause is news that the UK economy is shrinking far faster than expected, and there’s talk about a 0.75-point interest rate cut – sooner rather than later. But on a wider prospective, this is the markets commenting more articulately than the Tories on Gordon Brown’s “scorched earth” economic policy. It is becoming clearer that Britain is perhaps in the worst position of

Peter Hoskin

Opec won’t play along with the Brown narrative

Oh dear. After Brown’s grandiose claim that he was “trying to get the oil price down”, No.10 must have hoped that the pre-existing downwards trend in prices, and the petrol pump competitiveness by supermarkets, would continue for some time to come – so our Dear Leader could claim all the credit. A shame, then, that the Opec countries have just decided to cut oil production; with the expressed aim of increasing prices. The problem for the PM is that if tries claiming credit for positive developments he hasn’t influenced, then he risks looking like a failure when the trends turn against him.