Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Scottish Independence: The Cost of Living Like This

Yippee! The number-crunching boffins are at war again. The UK and Scottish governments have today released rival forecasts for life in an independent Scotland. It will not surprise you that the UK government’s projections run towards the pessimistic side of the ledger while their opponents in Edinburgh take a sunnier view of Scotland’s future economic circumstances and performance. Fancy that! The Scottish government suggests there might be £5bn windfall from independence; the UK government reckons each Scot receives a ‘Union dividend’ worth something like £1,400 a year.  They can’t both be right. In fact the probability is they are both wrong. That is, Scotland’s fiscal and economic position would be

Andy Slaughter

How did Labour manage to take control of Cameron’s ‘flagship’ London council?

After a formidable campaign run by Shadow London Minister Sadiq Khan, Labour took four out of eight Euro seats. Redbridge, Croydon, Merton, Harrow – none typically thought of as Labour boroughs – turned from blue to red. This should be the real story of the 2014 local and European elections. But the most surprising result in London came when Labour convincingly took control of Hammersmith and Fulham. A council variously described as Cameron’s ‘favourite’ or ‘flagship’, it had enthusiastically piloted some of the most high profile and radical Tory policies. The victory belongs to Stephen Cowan, the new Labour leader of Hammersmith and Fulham, and his team of candidates and activists,

Steerpike Steerpike

Ukip pin Newark hope on data access

Ukip types, already with a spring in their step this week, are further buoyed by the fact that they will be going into the Newark by-election with data up their sleeves. The Tory machine is in full swing on the ground, but the playing field has been levelled. Whereas in previous by-elections Farage turned up to the pub or hung about meeting people in the market square, Newark will be different. Thanks to the proximity of the crunch Nottinghamshire ballot to the European and local elections, the self-styled ‘people’s army’ will be on an equal footing with the embedded local Tories, as they will be able to see exactly who

Julie Bindel

Julie Bindel goes to Hay-on-Wye and comes back with trench foot

I am trudging around a field in the middle nowhere with mud up to my genitals. The joining instructions for the annual HowTheLightGetsIn festival at Hay-on-Wye does not include advice about avoiding looking like a filthy puddle by the time you get to do your talk. I was booked to speak at a few sessions on men being absolute bastards, and arrived on Friday at the same time as the torrential rain. ‘It was beautiful last week,’ said the driver who met me at Hereford station. ‘Hope you’ve got your wellies?’ For the love of god, I thought, why would I have bloody wellies? I live in London. After a restless night

Tuesday

Charlotte Henry

Who is behind the campaign to oust Nick Clegg?

Lord Oakeshott has gone under the radar, as speculation mounts about his involvement in a bid to oust party leader Nick Clegg. Many believe he is responsible for commissioning a poll that appeared in today’s Guardian, showing that Clegg and other Lib Dems could lose their Commons seats if he remains leader. Looking through the House of Lords Register of Members’ interests, it’s clear that Oakeshott is very rich indeed, boasting numerous Directorships and shareholdings. He certainly has the financial clout to fund such a poll. The register reveals something else, too: that Oakeshott has one member of staff, called Naomi Smith. She confirmed to me that she is ‘a

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Michael Gove hasn’t banned Steinbeck – but perhaps he should have.

I’ve never quite understood why so many people hate Michael Gove. I mean, really hate him. To my mind his heart is so obviously in the right place that I’m happy to forgive him his occasional excesses. It may not quite be the case that anyone who so thoroughly upsets the teaching establishment must be doing something right but it is very plainly something more likely to be right than wrong. Which, I suppose, means I do understand why so many people hate the Education Secretary. As the left often reminds us (albeit usually tediously) speaking truth to power is rarely popular. But no, Michael Gove has not banned  the teaching of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Miliband’s sense of humour failure over relatively helpful question

Ed Miliband has just delivered his post-European and local elections comeback speech in Thurrock, to show that he’s not afraid to confront the challenges that Labour still faces in the run-up to 2015. I’ll post on the details of the speech and what it means shortly, but one exchange in the Q&A told us quite a lot not just about Miliband but politicians in general. Here is a video clip: And here is the transcript: Journalist: ‘Peter Dominiczak from the Telegraph. You’ve been attacked in your party for being too wordy and too academic. I wondered if you could give us here today just one word that defines your leadership

Sebastian Payne

Briefing: what you need to know about that leaked Lib Dem poll

Will Nick Clegg hold onto his Sheffield Hallam seat next year? No, according to internal Lib Dem polling which has been leaked to the Guardian. ICM have now released the full tables, which outline the fight Clegg and the Lib Dems face in 2015. It’s worth noting sample sizes are small — 500 were polled in each seat compared to 1,000 in Ashcroft survey this weekend. But here are the most important details: While Clegg held onto his seat comfortably with 53 per cent of the vote in 2010, the ICM snapshot suggests that if there was a general election tomorrow, Clegg would come third behind Labour and the Tories: [datawrapper

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Polling council investigates anonymous Lib Dem seats survey

Who is the mysterious ‘Lib Dem supporter’ behind the ICM poll showing that the Lib Dems would fare very badly next year if Nick Clegg remains leader? ICM have published the poll tables, saying only that the commissioning client is a ‘member of the Liberal Democrats’. The British Polling Council rules state that its members must refer to the ‘client commissioning the survey’, and there is some suggestion that simply saying the client is a Lib Dem member isn’t quite sufficient. I’ve spoken to the BPC’s Secretary Nick Moon, who says the Council is examining ICM’s disclosure to see whether it complies with the rules. He says: ‘It is a

Andrew Green

The Ukip ‘earthquake’ must provoke a proper debate about immigration

The ‘debate’ about immigration in recent weeks has failed to focus on the crucial issue – the sheer scale that immigration has reached and its inevitable impact on our future. Perhaps this week’s ‘earthquake’ will prepare the ground for a serious discussion of what has to be done while preserving our open society and economy. The fundamental reality is that, under Labour, net foreign immigration was very nearly four million, while one million British citizens emigrated. Of Labour’s four million, only one third were from Eastern Europe, but those are the only ones that they mention. It cannot have escaped their notice that the other two and a half million

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Captain Britannia: Nigel Farage is the Union’s Useful Secret Weapon

Your enemy’s enemy is not necessarily your friend. That is something forgotten too easily. Nevertheless, though he may not be your friend he may, for a time at least, be your ally. And so it came to pass that Nigel Farage is, for the time being, Labour’s new best chum. In Scotland, that is. The Tories are quite pleased with him too and, if anyone could find them, perhaps the Liberal Democrats would be too. Of course, officially, there is much tut-tutting and hand-wringing over Ukip’s success in Scotland. We’re all supposed to be simply appalled that these fruitcakes have won a seat in the European parliament. Terrible stuff. Come

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Can Nick Clegg survive his party’s wrath?

Will Nick Clegg survive his mauling in the European elections? The front pages this morning don’t do the Lib Dem leader any favours – although his main leadership rivals, Tim Farron and Vince Cable, did by pledging their loyalty to him. There is considerable suspicion in the party that the polling on the Guardian front page was commissioned by one of Cable’s allies, with or without the Business Secretary’s knowledge or approval. It’s certainly had more impact than an open letter or pithy op-ed, and whoever the ‘Lib Dem supporter’ responsible for the leak is, they’re certainly not a Nick Clegg supporter. Privately, Clegg has admitted that he wishes his

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Tower Hamlets — London’s rotten borough

What is going on in Tower Hamlets? Three days after the counting began, the borough has yet to return a complete set of results from Thursday’s elections. Counting for the Bromley South ward has been stopped for a second time today, resuming in the morning. Tower Hamlets Council explained in a statement ‘the result is looking very close in this ward and accuracy is of paramount concern’. Few would probably have noticed, were it not for Tower Hamlets holding up the rest of London announcing its results for the European elections. While the rest of the country reported its results hours before, Tower Hamlets was delayed due to a new

Steerpike Steerpike

Purple haze: inside Ukip’s victory party

The self-styled anti-establishment ‘People’s Army’ chose the most expensive hotel in Westminster to announce the professionalisation of their party machine. Nigel Farage’s post-European election press conference was completely stage managed — from the security on the door to the lack of questions from the floor, right down to the moment he was whisked away from the InterContinental Westminster in a blacked out Land Rover with his key donor Paul Sykes. But Ukip were not done yet, Farage presumably just drove round the block a few times because he was soon back sinking a vat of merlot at his victory party — which your correspondent attempted to crashed with various degrees of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Vince Cable breaks his silence

Vince Cable, definitely not in the Team Nick camp, has finally broken his silence from a trade visit in China to defend his colleague. In the past few minutes the Business Secretary has released this statement: ‘These were exceptionally disappointing results for the party. Many hard working Liberal Democrats, who gave this fight everything they had and then lost their seats, are feeling frustrated and disheartened and we all understand that. ‘Nick did a bold thing in standing up to the eurosceptic wave which has engulfed much of continental Europe. We are the only party to have taken that on and he personally deserves tremendous credit for that. There is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Nick Clegg defends his leadership and the Coalition

A visibly tired Nick Clegg has just done his first post-European Election TV interview. Clegg conceded that the Liberal Democrats had taken a ‘bigger hit in the ballot box’ than he expected they would when he took them into coalition. But he made clear he wasn’t quitting and that he thought it would be a massive mistake for the party to leave the Coalition now as its ‘big judgments were being vindicated’. listen to ‘Nick Clegg: We’re not going to lose our nerve’ on Audioboo Clegg attempted to explain the scale of the defeat to his party by saying that the Liberal Democrats were hit by the double-whammy of being

Steerpike Steerpike

Ukip fail to organise a piss-up in a brewery

Even before Ukip’s troops stormed last night’s EU elections, they were already planning their victory party. Where a few months ago it would have been held in a pub, with Nigel Farage posing for his customary pint n’fag shot, this time they were already planning on a much bigger scale. The City of London Distillery, keeping the boozy theme, was booked out ready for a victory rally today. However, Mr S hears that the venue has now been deemed too small to accommodate all the winning candidates, donors and supporters. At the last minute the party has now been moved to the Intercontinental Hotel in Westminster. Surely Health and Safety concerns

Douglas Murray

Will Labour and the Conservatives finally discuss the concerns Ukip has raised?

Ukip have come top of the polls for the UK in the EU elections. Now which of the two following scenarios might we most likely expect from the other parties? Might the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, along with their amazingly loyal chorus-line in the British media, wake up sincerely believing that a ‘racist’ political party is now the biggest UK party in the EU? Do you think they will escalate a war against that party and the public who voted for them, such as would only be appropriate from anyone who actually believed that this country was now dominated and — in Brussels at least — led by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Cameron has fewer problems than Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg this morning

For more than year Westminster has assumed that David Cameron would have a Tory crisis to deal with after the European Elections. Whenever anyone remarked on the Tories unifying, someone would say ‘well, wait until after the Euros’. The conventional wisdom was that the Tories coming third would lead to a slew of senior Tories pushing for more robust policies on immigration and Europe and more and more Tory MPs calling for a pact with Ukip. But this morning, Cameron has fewer problems than either Ed Miliband or Nick Clegg. The fact that the Tory party has responded so calmly to coming third in a nationwide election for the first