Money

So, we were all so impressed with the swashbuckling performance of Gareth Southgate’s team that we all rushed out and bought replica England shirts and packs of lager – to the point that retail sales in July were 0.5 per cent higher than in June. No, I don’t buy that either – even though it has been widely reported today in reaction to the latest statistical release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). As I have written here before, I don’t really trust the month-on-month figures for retail sales. They are too volatile to be meaningful. Moreover, they depend somewhat on how many weekends fell in the month: some

The UK economy flatlined in June, as uncertainty over the general election and industrial action took their toll on economic growth. It wasn’t expected to be a strong month for the economy, with markets forecasting very little GDP growth, if any. But the small dip in services output – a fall of 0.1 per cent, driven primarily by a fall in retail trade – was disappointing after five months of consecutive growth. Still, June’s figures are the perfect example of why one month of data rarely tells the full story. Businesses reported to the ONS that ‘customers were delaying placing orders until the outcome of the election was known’ which

Growth is slowing down. The property market is wobbling. And the government is tightening its grip on every form of economic activity. Global investors have made a decision about China over the last few months. It may have one of the biggest markets in the world, but the risks are simply too high. Over the second quarter of this year, foreign investors pulled a record amount of money out of China. A total of $15 billion was taken out of the country, and if that continues for the rest of the year it will be the first time the total has turned negative since 1999. There is, however, one exception:

Today’s labour market figures ought to bring good news: they show that growth on earnings has moderated to 5.4 per cent, the lowest level in two years. That should ease fears of inflation – it is growth in pay which has most concerned the Bank of England in recent months – and pave the way for further cuts in interest rates. The trouble is, though, that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has undermined this by granting pay rises of 5.5 per cent to several million public sector workers – threatening to reignite wage growth again. The public sector has become an inflationary engine chugging away in one corner of the economy

Is America about to enter a recession and take the world with it? Yesterday the pound was on track for its longest losing streak in a year as markets once again began to fear a US recession. The week started with what looked like the bursting of a tech bubble. Japan’s Nikkei dropped by 12 per cent in a day – its largest fall since Black Monday nearly four decades ago. But by Tuesday morning, stocks had recovered 10 per cent and markets looked to be steadying while the jittery hands of investors began to hold firm. Are we out of the woods? Not quite. A leading Wall Street Bank

The markets are tumbling. Investors are bailing out. And there are already fears that the plunge in equities is a sign that a recession is just around the corner in America. With a presidential election only a few months away, the Federal Reserve will come under intense pressure to bail out the market with a cut in interest rates as it has done so often over the last quarter of a century. So will central banks in the UK and the Euro-zone. This time around, though, it would be madness to cut rates: it will just make the asset bubble much worse.  The FTSE-100 has fallen sharply again this morning,

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index registered its biggest ever daily fall on Monday, plummeting by over 12 per cent and continuing the extraordinary collapse that began last Friday. Meanwhile, the Yen, which had been slowly eroding in value for months continued its dramatic resurrection moving from 162 to the dollar to under 140. At the time of writing, a technical rebound seems to be underway – but such volatility is alarming. After years of nothing very interesting happening to the Japanese economy, such upheavals have stunned locals and provoked urgent questions about causes and consequences. As to what has caused this, most are pointing to the Bank of Japan’s surprise interest

For a while it looked as if Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves were going to be lucky: they had walked into an economic recovery. The anaemic growth and market turmoil of the past few years – which Labour liked to blame entirely on ‘Tory chaos’ and absolutely nothing to do with the pandemic or energy crisis which followed the invasion of Ukraine – were going to be replaced by a period of stability and prosperity. Some governments are fortunate in their timing: Tony Blair walked into a decade of non-inflationary growth thanks to globalisation and the emergence of China as a major economy. But Starmer, it now looks, will not

As Kate Andrews argues here, the Bank of England were never going to cut interest rates during an election campaign for fear of being accused of favouring one side or the other. That ruled out a rate cut in June, while in July there was no meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. But are those five members who voted for a quarter-point cut today really confident that they have not opened themselves to charges of bias, by cutting rates at the earliest opportunity after the election of a Labour government? For months, the MPC was telling us that it was too early for a rate cut – in spite of rapidly falling inflation

The news that McDonald’s sales have fallen by 1 per cent around the world between April and June might not seem, on the face of it, to be vastly significant. After all, surely there will always be a market for cheap and cheerful hamburgers, chicken nuggets and chips that even Michelin-starred chefs rave about? Apparently not. Ever since the pandemic, when there was a considerable rise in prices, the lustre has gone off the golden arches, and profits have declined by 12 per cent. There have been calls for ‘value added’ innovations, such as the current ‘buy three items for £3’ deal, but, as one McDonald’s executive helpfully put it,

Rachel Reeves has just announced a series of spending cuts in the House of Commons. These were ‘incredibly tough choices’, she said, to account for the £20 billion surprise ‘black hole’ left behind by the Tory government.  Her announcement means £5.5 billion of immediate, in-year cuts. These include some projects that were tipped to be axed, including the Rwanda scheme, and a review of rail projects (which will include discarding the ‘Restoring Our Railways’ programme). But the big surprise was the decision to withdraw the winter fuel allowance for pensioners who are ‘not in receipt of pension credit or certain other means tested benefits’ from this winter onwards. It’s an

How much can Rachel Reeves be trusted? A Chancellor’s credibility counts for a lot with the markets, who are asked to lend HM Government tens of billions a year. Reeves claims to be serious, straight and candid in a way her Tory predecessors were not. But now she seems to be channeling Liz Truss and coming up with her own assessment of the public finances while dispensing with the service of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). She intends to declare a £20 billion hole, we’re told, and say she is shocked – shocked! – at what a mess the finances are in. Cue an excuse for tax rises, more

Oh, the suspense. It seems that we will have to wait until next week to discover the details of the £20 billion ‘black hole’ which chancellor Rachel Reeves has supposedly discovered in the public finances. Don’t get too excited, though. The revelation will be no greater a surprise than the ending of James Cameron’s blockbuster film Titanic (spoiler alert: a large ship hits an iceberg and sinks). As Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out before the election and has done so again: the state of the UK government’s finances are not exactly a secret – they are already open to anyone who cares to examine them. You

Nobody said much about it before the election, but the new government inherits a ghastly financial problem with the higher education system. Rising costs, stagnant tuition fees, and a big drop in foreign student enrolments have left several universities tottering like ivory Jenga towers. We probably have too many universities This week we got an inkling of what education secretary Bridget Phillipson and higher education minister Jacqui Smith are thinking of doing about this mess. Not surprisingly, big money bail-outs are out (chancellor Rachel Reeves won’t allow them), as are increases in student fees (which backbenchers wouldn’t stand for). Instead, apart from telling the institutions in trouble to tighten their belts, the