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As Rachel Reeves prepares what is potentially the most difficult Budget in a generation, a question occurs: what if the Conservatives had, somehow, won the election? Historians hate counterfactuals, considering them unhelpful parlour-games. Personally, I enjoy a good ‘what if’ – not least because they can help put current political events in context. In that spirit, I’m pleased to present here the October 2024 Budget speech that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt might give in a parallel universe where the Conservatives remained in office after the election. As well a Budget address, this is also my resignation speech ‘Madam Deputy Speaker, it gives me no great pleasure to present this Budget statement

If the public is worried about what lies in store in Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, there are few signs of it yet in their shopping habits. The latest retail sales figures, released by the Office for National Statistics this morning, show that sales volumes were up by 0.3 per cent in September. Over the three months to September – a more reliable figure as it is based on a lot more data – sales were up a very strong 1.9 per cent. It seems that the long covid winter in the retail world may finally be coming to an end: though sales volumes in September were still 0.2 per cent down

Dubai, Italy or perhaps the Bahamas? Many multi-millionaires are discussing where they should flee to as the Rachel Reeves prepares to raid their bank accounts in the ‘Horror Budget’ scheduled for the end of this month. But not, as it turns out, Patriotic Millionaires, the group that campaigns tirelessly for higher taxes on the rich. Its members want Reeves to take more of their money. The papers are dominated by reports of wealthy entrepreneurs, and the few remaining non-doms, securing a bolt hole somewhere where Reeves will not be able to reach them, but Patriotic Millionaires has a very different message. A report out today, written by IPPR (a think

Inflation slowed to 1.7 per cent in the twelve months to September, taking the inflation rate to its lowest levels since spring 2021. While markets and forecasters had expected the inflation rate to drop below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target at some point this year (market consensus for September was 1.9 per cent), the bigger-than-expected fall has come as a surprise, as core inflation also slowed to 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to September – down from 3.6 per cent in August. The largest contributions to the slowdown came from falling transport costs, while overall services fell to 4.9 per cent on the year, down

Despite getting off to a rocky start – including nearly losing £1 billion worth of investment – Labour’s much-anticipated Investment Summit seems to be delivering exactly what ministers had hoped for. The good news, including a combined investment of £6.3 billion from four US technology firms to expand data-centre infrastructure in Britain – is rolling in. The biggest question for plenty of businesses at today’s Summit will be about tax Business is struck, perhaps awestruck, by Labour’s commitment to slash red tape. During a panel event with the Prime Minister and ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, the tech guru expressed how ‘shocked’ he was to learn that Labour was now ‘strongly

The European Union has joined the United States and Canada in slapping tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs). It’s a rare moment of transatlantic unity – but where does it leave Britain? For now, the UK remains the awkward man in the room. It is the only G7 country not to have imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs (or, in the case of Japan, which already has arduous non-tariff barriers to deter foreign automotive companies from entering its markets.)  The European Commission has made it plain that they see Chinese EVs as an economic threat Many will rightly question the silence from Whitehall. The UK’s omission from a coordinated attempt to stem China’s

It could be 30 per cent. Or 35 per cent? Or perhaps 39 per cent? Heck, who knows, if Rachel Reeves wants to keep the accountants on their toes, perhaps 39.657 per cent. The Treasury is, according to the latest leaks to the Guardian, looking at an increase in Capital Gains Tax as it scrabbles around for tax rises to fund the Chancellor’s spending plans, while not putting up the amount ordinary people are paying. The trouble is, whatever number she picks it is not going to work – and Rachel Reeves is fast gaining a reputation as a shambolic Chancellor. The list of failed tax rises from the new government

At Prime Minister’s Questions this afternoon, Rishi Sunak took a technical turn. Why is Rachel Reeves considering changing the fiscal rules, he asked the Prime Minister, when just last year she said doing so would be ‘tantamount to fiddling the figures.’ No clear answer followed.  The wisdom during the general election was that borrowing more money – to finance Labour or Tory spending promises – was simply not an option. No one dared to propose anything resembling Liz Truss’s mini-budget saga, which saw her attempt to borrow £100 billion to limit energy price rises for consumers.  Instead, the parties said they would make good on their spending promises by going

Water companies have sweated the assets they were handed upon privatisation in the late 1980s. They have failed to invest properly, and have regarded fines for sewage spills as a business cost, to be balanced against the price of investment, rather than as a deterrent. They have, as Ofwat chief executive David Black told the Today programme this morning, blamed the weather rather than their own failures. Sewage spills more than doubled last year All this is true. Even so, is what the water industry really needs at the moment an order to return £158 million to customers through lower bills in 2025/26? That is what Ofwat has just ordered the

Business confidence has plummeted back to the levels last seen in the wake of Liz Truss’s unfortunate mini-budget. Hiring has slowed down as employers worry about all the new rights Labour is about to award their staff. Consumer confidence has fallen, as people worry about the tax rises that will be imposed in the ‘Horror Budget’ set for the end of the month. And the economy, which was growing at a decent clip when the Conservatives left office, has now stalled, with zero growth in the latest quarter. The new Chancellor Rachel Reeves was facing a spluttering economy. But, hey, never mind. It turns out that the Bank of England

Jeremy Hunt is one of the few Tories willing to take the fight to Labour while the Conservative leadership contest drones on. The shadow chancellor gave an on-stage interview at party conference in Birmingham this morning where he continued to attack Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ ‘£22 billion black hole’ narrative. Hunt suggested that not even Labour MPs and members believed that claim, which was why they were having such a big row over the winter fuel payment. ‘We were trounced at the election,’ Hunt said Hunt also warned that Labour was in danger of making decisions based on its own ‘propaganda’, telling Daniel Finkelstein: ‘My worry is that Labour believes its

Russia’s spending on its war in Ukraine continues to grow. Somehow, despite tightening sanctions and increased global isolation, two-and-a-half-years in to the conflict, it appears Moscow can continue to splash the cash on its army – for now. Spending on president Vladimir Putin’s military is set to increase by more than a quarter to 13.3 trillion roubles (£107 billion) next year, according to a draft of the Russian state budget for 2025 revealed this week. This colossal sum – which is nearly double the 6.4 trillion roubles (£52 billion) spent last year – is roughly twice the size of the amount spent by Britain on its own defence. Russia’s government