Money

Rishi Sunak’s warm words won’t persuade workers back to offices

It will be better for our careers. We will network more effectively, spark ideas off one another, and learn new things from our colleagues, as well as getting a reminder from time to time of how annoying they are.  Chancellor Rishi Sunak took a break today from his usual occupation of dishing out vast sums of free money to remind us all of how much he learned from working in an office. Sunak is urging us all to get back to the skyscraper, shop, warehouse, or whatever, as quickly as possible. But hold on. Sure, there is nothing wrong with a few warm words to that effect – but we need more

Should Boris pay people to take the jab?

The steady stream of mixed messages coming from government ministers have been one of the few constants during the pandemic. Boris Johnson’s numerous u-turns have been well-documented and widely ridiculed. And while the news that the unvaccinated could be offered ‘kebabs for jabs’ may not constitute a full volte-face, it certainly flies in the face of the government’s ‘junk food’ advertising ban. Young people could now be offered discounts on Big Macs if they get vaccinated, but McDonald’s soon might not be able to promote the product on TV before 9pm or online at all. Where’s the logic in that? This latest approach on encouraging vaccine uptake makes life difficult for public health experts who

Kate Andrews

Vaccine passports could threaten the employment recovery

Alongside the UK’s latest step in reopening, optimistic forecasts have been rolling in concerning the economy’s timeline for returning to pre-pandemic levels. This morning, we got another positive indication that businesses are resuming normal operations. The latest update on furlough figures shows 1.9 million workers are still on the scheme as of the end of June — the lowest level of people having their wages paid by the state since furlough was first introduced during last year’s spring lockdown. The number of people on the scheme fell by half a million last month, and by roughly three million since March. The continued fall is hardly surprising, as each month since

Kate Andrews

Whitehall’s Covid gloom could harm our economic recovery

As the government continues to put forward an extremely cautious narrative about re-opening, more evidence emerged today that the economy is surging ahead. The International Monetary Fund has once again upgraded its forecast for Britain’s growth this year: its April prediction of 5.3 per cent growth in 2021 has now been revised upward to 7 per cent. If correct, the UK could boast one of the fastest growing economies amongst major countries, with a recovery looking to be on par with the United States. Today’s update from the IMF fits a trend. Just this weekend the EY Item Club forecast 7.6 per cent growth this year – the fastest rate

Covid has revealed the limits of the big state

When Rishi Sunak turned on the spending taps last March, a triumphant Jeremy Corbyn said he had been proved ‘right’. History would be written by the losers. In the 16 months since, government spending on the pandemic has swelled to an eye-watering £372 billion. Wages have been nationalised, along with the railways. Individuals have radically altered their behaviour to shield a state institution. Many now hold the view that coronavirus demonstrates government can borrow and spend a large amount of money quickly and wisely — and that it can therefore continue to do so. But two new reports from the Commons Public Accounts Committee decisively debunk that myth. The picture

Australia shows the cost of zero Covid

The UK is growing at the fastest pace in 80 years. The United States, fuelled by President Biden’s stimulus programme, is expanding at a breath-taking pace, while Sweden is growing at a rapid rate. Most of the global economy is bouncing back from the Covid recession at remarkable speed. There is, however, one exception. Australia. What has long been one of the most successful economies in the world is heading back not just into lockdown but into recession as well — and giving the world a sharp lesson in the cost of ‘zero Covid’. Over the last year, Australia, along with New Zealand, has been heaped with praise for the

Ross Clark

Don’t fall for Rishi Sunak’s ‘Britcoin’

Do we need an officially-sanctioned, government-backed crypto-currency underwritten by sterling — a ‘Britcoin’ — as Rishi Sunak is said to be advocating? At first sight it is hard to see the attraction. Surely, there are two principle reasons why people feel attracted to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Firstly, if you are a drug dealer, you might hope that it is a way of keeping your stash of wealth beyond the reach of law enforcers. This hasn’t quite proved true, but you can understand why cryptocurrencies have their fans in the criminal world. Secondly, there is the hope of making a quick, speculative profit. The wildly gyrating values of Bitcoin and

John Ferry

Are we dangerously addicted to Quantitative Easing?

For such a radical change to our monetary system, the lack of understanding of quantitative easing (QE) and its impacts is worrying. That is one of the conclusions drawn from this month’s House of Lords economic affairs committee report, ‘Quantitative easing: a dangerous addiction?’ QE involves central banks creating money and using it to buy financial assets (usually government bonds). It is known as an ‘unconventional’ monetary tool, as opposed to the conventional monetary policy of raising and lowering interest rates. But as this new report highlights, the practice has very much become a conventional part of monetary policy. The financial crisis in 2007-08 kicked off rounds of QE in

James Forsyth

How do the Tories stop the rise of an ever-bigger state?

When Gordon Brown raised National Insurance in 2002 to put more money into the health service, it was seen as a huge political gamble. The Tories — including one Boris Johnson — denounced the move in furious terms. In a sign of how far to the left the country has moved, the Tories are planning to do something very similar to cover the cost of a social care cap and dealing with the NHS backlog. If the Tories do this, it will put Labour in a tricky position. How do they respond when a Tory government raises taxes to put more money into the NHS? If the Tories do this,

Kate Andrews

What the NHS pay rise says about Boris Johnson’s priorities

Well, that didn’t take long. Two days ago, a leaked report revealed that the government was considering using a national insurance tax hike to pay for the NHS backlog and social care. Now it looks as though the money could be diverted elsewhere.  The anticipated increase of at least one per cent on national insurance would transfer an additional £6bn from taxpayers to the Treasury. But today, the Times reports that £1.5bn of that sum may not go to hip replacements or speeding up the timeline for cancer patients to access treatment. Instead it could help fund the three per cent NHS pay raise, which has been promised by health secretary Sajid Javid. This latest debacle also

Ross Clark

When will Boris get serious about balancing the budget?

Should we be pleased that net government borrowing for June came in below expectations, at £22.8 billion – £5.5 billion less than June 2020? Should we see it as a sign that the economy is recovering a little faster than had been hoped? That is the spin being put on the public borrowing figures released this morning. An alternative, and less rosy, view might come from examining two figures in particular. Firstly, while borrowing is down compared with June 2020, public spending is actually up. Over the month the government spent £84.1 billion of our money, £2.5 billion more than in the same month a year earlier. Balancing the budget

The problem with polling

If you did an opinion poll about opinion polls, chances are most people would recognise the limitations of market research, offer some unfavourable views of pollsters and deride the uses to which their work is sometimes put. Yet if you asked politicians and the media whether polls deserve our attention, they would almost unanimously agree. Even after Brexit. Or Trump in 2016. Or the eye-popping poll earlier this month that found that one in five Brits support having a nationwide 10 p.m. curfew permanently in place, regardless of whether or not the pandemic is still raging. Polls have major shortcomings. Even if pollsters avoid leading questions and interview the perfect cross-section

Alex Massie

Is Boris brave enough to confront the truth about the NHS?

If a government does not wish to break a manifesto promise it should punt fewer such ‘promises’ into its manifesto. The modern mania for throwing everything possible into a manifesto – the better to proof it against interference from the House of Lords – renders manifestoes nothing more than a job lot of largely spurious pledges. The vision thing is notable for its absence and the vision thing is more important – and more revealing – than a grocery list of promises. Still, if you must break a promise it is no bad thing to start with a large and stupid one. The Conservative commitment not to raise any of

Kate Andrews

A tax rise for care won’t solve the problem

The tax burden in the UK is nearing a 70-year high — but that’s not stopping ministers from mulling over plans to hike taxes further. According to reports this morning, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are close to agreeing an increase to national insurance to help address the NHS backlog (five million patients in England, and counting). They also want to fill the long-standing black hole in the social care budget: something Johnson promised he’d address nearly two years ago to the day when he first entered Downing Street. The rumours have immediately led to criticism of the government’s willingness to break its manifesto pledge, not to raise income tax,

John Ferry

Sturgeon’s economic council is a fig-leaf for independence

This month’s announcement of a new economic advisory council formed by the Scottish government came with the usual flow of superlatives. The 17-member group will publish a strategy paper later this year to help deliver the ‘transformational change Scotland needs’, according to economy secretary Kate Forbes. We are promised ‘bold ideas’ that will bring ‘new, good and green jobs’. We have been here before. This group replaces a previous Council of Economic Advisers set up by Alex Salmond in 2007. It too had a remit to galvanise the Scottish economy. It provided 14 years of strategic advice (seven of those under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership) to the SNP administration with no

Susanne Mundschenk

The EU’s carbon border tax hits roadblocks

The European Commission’s Fit-for-55 emission plan, with its extended emission trading scheme and the new carbon border tax, will be fighting an uphill battle. The carbon border tax scheme — the first of its kind in the world — could become Europe’s opening bid to get moving internationally beyond mere discussions. If there is an international agreement in the end, it would have served a purpose. If not, it may only end up creating new battle lines between trading partners. There may be broad consensus on the goal of reducing carbon emissions, but questions remain: who is to shoulder the bill? Europe’s carbon-intensive industries fear a technocratic monster The carbon

The EU’s Brexit bill doesn’t add up

A dozen hospitals. A hundred million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and a lot more of the Oxford one. Or even a few trips in one of Jeff Bezos’s new space rockets. Even with inflation, there is still plenty you can buy with an extra three to four billion pounds.  In recent days, it has emerged there is a big gulf between what the European Union insists we owe under the terms of our departure agreement, and what the UK believes is due.  In the EU’s accounts, it put the sum at £40.5 billion. The UK now says it will be £37.3 billion, or £3.2 billion less than the EU reckons.

A salt and sugar tax doesn’t make much sense

What is the point of the National Food Strategy? When Henry Dimbleby was hired as Britain’s ‘food tsar’ several years ago, the idea was to develop some blue sky thinking and to have someone look at the issue with a fresh pair of eyes, but when he produced his first report last year, it contained the same generic, flat-pack, bone-headed, nanny-state recommendations that every other voice of the establishment had been calling for. So predictable were his conclusions that the government had already committed itself to implementing most of them by the time it was published and he resorted to moaning about Percy Pigs to give himself an angle. The

Kate Andrews

In the post-pandemic economy, the workers are the boss

The world of coronomics continues to surprise us. Last summer forecasters warned of a wave of redundancies after the biggest economic crash in 300 years. Peak unemployment — spurred on by lockdowns — was expected to near 12 per cent, ushering in a new era of chronic financial pain and instability for millions of workers. But the Treasury’s furlough scheme has kept the headline figure down. Unemployment has hovered around 5 per cent, less than half the original prediction. The problem this summer isn’t mass unemployment but worker absenteeism. Job vacancies are now more than a third above pre-pandemic levels. There is no shortage of available work, only a shortage

Martin Vander Weyer

Could hydrogen power turn air travel green?

Have you been scanning airline websites for exotic destinations to which your double-jabbed status might allow you to slip away in August? I certainly have, but I’ve ruled out the parts of Canada and the United States that are stricken by record-breaking heatwaves and forest fires — and I’m wondering what impact such extreme climate events will have on the aviation industry as it struggles back to life after the pandemic. Having survived a year of near-total shutdown, I suspect it will now face an onslaught of green rhetoric to which governments — positioning for November’s COP26 climate conference in Glasgow — will be forced to respond. A recent Financial