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The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is rampant. Bars and restaurants are in crisis as thousands of bookings are cancelled. And travel restrictions are back in place, with a full lockdown looming. To make matters worse, so far there is little sign of the Chancellor Rishi Sunak stepping in with any support.  Most businesses probably imagined that the very last thing they would have to cope with right now was a rise in interest rates. As a result, there will be plenty of business owners complaining that the Bank of England’s decision to up rates to 0.25 per cent will be the final blow that will push the economy back into recession. But hold on.

Yet again, inflation has surged past expectations – this time hitting 5.1 per cent in November, a ten-year high, up from 4.2 per cent in October. This threatens a political crisis as well as tough economic times: unless inflation is quelled, next year will be one of declining living standards for most people. Anyone whose pay is not rising by at least five per cent will, in effect, feel like they’ve experienced a pay cut. It was assumed that five per cent would be about as high as inflation would go but all this is proving hard to predict. This has gone past the Bank of England’s peak forecast, which

It wasn’t long ago that we were fearing the end of the furlough scheme might be accompanied by a significant rise in unemployment. According to the latest labour market figures released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) this morning, that doesn’t appear to have happened. What they do show, however, is that the pandemic has led to growth in a section of the population which generally receives little comment: adults of working age who are economically inactive – i.e. not in work and not seeking work either. Moreover, those who are in work are working fewer hours than they did before the pandemic. The figures cover the period August

Abba have reformed. Nato is working out how to deal with an aggressive Russian president. And there are shortages of everything. There were already plenty of clues, but now it is surely official: the 1970s are back. The United States has recorded its highest inflation rate for 32 years, with a 6.8 per cent rate that far surpassed anything even the most pessimistic forecasters expected. In truth, Joe Biden is about to turn into the new Jimmy Carter, a lame duck Democratic president presiding over a failing economy – and the crisis is entirely of his own making. We already knew the US was witnessing a bout of inflation. Even

The economy is tantalisingly close to returning to pre-pandemic levels, now just 0.5 per cent off recovery. But this last hurdle may be the most difficult to overcome. The economy was more or less at a standstill in October, with GDP climbing by a measly 0.1 per cent. Services output grew by 0.4 per cent, mostly thanks to an uptick in GPs heading back to their surgeries for face-to-face appointments. While services recovered to pre-pandemic levels in October, the underlying figures don’t look so rosy: production output fell 0.6 per cent, while construction took its biggest hit since the first lockdown, falling by almost 2 per cent. These are disappointing

The Turkish lira sank to an all-time low against the dollar last week. The lira shed 30 per cent of its value in November alone, having lost nearly half its value since the start of the year. Inflation in the country is out of control — reaching over 21 per cent last month. Traditional economics tells you to raise interest rates to counter inflation. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive — in theory reducing the amount of spending on goods and services. Indeed the Bank of England, facing inflation at just over 4 per cent, is hinting that it will raise them in the new year.

Ursula von der Leyen dispensing vaccines, with a halo over her head perhaps? Emmanuel Macron riding a tank to symbolise the continent’s strategic autonomy? Or various commissioners whose names no one can quite remember setting carbon targets, fining Google and Apple, and dishing out grants for roads, bridges and tunnels?  It remains to be seen just what the European Central Bank comes up with for its planned re-design of the euro banknotes. One point is perfectly clear, however: the makeover will reveal the currency’s true colours as a vehicle for European integration rather than an effective instrument of economic policy. In fact, if the ECB really wanted to redesign the

It is called managing expectations: the steady drip of forecasts and scenarios designed to prepare us for bad news, so that when that news does finally arrive it doesn’t seem nearly as bad as it would otherwise have done. So is that what the Bank of England is up to with its deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, telling us that inflation next April could ‘comfortably exceed’ 5 per cent? It is reminiscent of the moment in July when the Bank’s departing chief economist, Andy Haldane, dropped in the suggestion that inflation by the end of 2021 could be closer to four percent than three percent. The MPC is behaving like a Chancellor

The value of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and digital assets more generally, is a controversial topic at the moment. Some dismiss decentralised finance as nothing more than a fad and a bubble, while for others we are on the cusp of a ‘monetary revolution’. For what it’s worth, my own view of crypto is somewhere down the middle. The blockchain technology which underpins crypto could be potentially transformative if used properly. But often this innovation is tarnished by the many dodgy cryptocurrencies that have emerged which have no real usefulness or value. Often issued by shady cryptoexchanges with questionable business practices, these are nothing more than high-risk speculative assets – if

We don’t yet know whether the Omicron variant will drastically accelerate the spread of coronavirus, or whether it will circumvent parts of the immune system. Nor can we be sure that the ‘light’ coronavirus restrictions announced at the weekend will be enough to combat the new strain. We can be certain, however, that these measures will come with an economic cost that politicians are, at least publicly, understating. Face masks are once again compulsory in shops and on public transport in England, and UK arrivals will need to take PCR tests within two days of landing, isolating until they get their result. But the major economic threat stems from the

Given the enthusiasm for tax cuts usually shown by Conservative MPs it is remarkable how few of them have, in public, raised objections to the government’s loose fiscal policy. True, the Prime Minister’s announcement of a hike in National Insurance ostensibly to pay for social care, elicited squeals from the back benches, yet last month’s Budget drew only muted objections. This was in spite of claims by the Resolution Foundation that the Budget will cost an average household £3000 a year – if you take into account the effect of higher prices as businesses seek to pass on their higher tax bills to consumers. Today, however, Mel Stride, former Treasury

Ping! No, not the dreaded Covid app but rather another beseeching email from CCHQ, begging money for Tory funds. Reading through the party-politicking, Mr S was curious to see that among the party’s list of achievements was the claim that ‘we’re delivering what the British people voted for’ by ‘cutting taxes for hardworking people.’  An intriguing boast, given that Rishi Sunak is hiking National Insurance, which applies to all employees including those on minimum wage, by an effective 2.5 per cent – despite the Conservative Party’s pledge in 2019 that ‘we will not raise the rate of income tax, VAT or National Insurance.’ Corporation tax has been raised to 25 per cent from

Boris Johnson’s majority plunged to just 26 last night, following a rebellion over controversial changes to social care plans. Means-tested, state-funded payments will no longer count towards the £86,000 limit on the amount people will have to pay for their care. Those with initial assets worth less than £186,000, and who have received such help, could be worse off as a consequence. Critics have pointed out that this is likely to disproportionately affect residents in the North or the Midlands because of differential house prices. Johnson’s government isn’t the first to tie itself in knots over the issue of social care funding. Successive administrations have failed to bring about reform