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The sheer complexity – and horror – of Russia’s war on Ukraine makes it difficult to distil the essential points. To take only one example, the battlefront north of Kiev, where the Russian convoy is stalled, is significantly different from that along the Black Sea, where Russian forces from Crimea have made substantial progress. A third front, in the east, is consolidating in Russia’s favour, though the fight was much harder and longer than Moscow expected. Amid this complexity, it is important to summarise what we know so far: 1. Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine appears to be the most catastrophic strategic mistake since the end of the Cold War and

When I was in Russia in the very early 1990s, there was a generic figure who seemed to stand at the entrance to every metro station: an ancient babushka in a headscarf and tatty coat, face creased with age and weather, holding out a flimsy plastic bag rolled into a little triangle, begging for kopeks. The collapse of communism had its winners and its losers – and these old women were the losers. The ‘social umbrella’ of the necrotic Soviet system may have provided its pensioners with a miserable existence, as a local explained it to me, but it had provided; and these women, having discovered that freedom is all

Britain must spend more on defence. As I say in the Times today the defence budget is already being increased but it is hard to argue that it is sufficient given how changed the security landscape now looks with Putin’s Russia launching an all-out invasion of a sovereign, European state. Until this week, the UK could argue that it would only increase defence spending still further when other European members of Nato had pulled their weight and were hitting the 2 per cent of GDP target. But now Olaf Scholz has announced that Germany will be spending 2 per cent – or more – by 2024, which poses another dilemma for London: does it

It was an odd launch event for what had previously been a much-touted initiative. While all eyes were on the war in Ukraine, Scotland’s finance minister, Kate Forbes, took to Dundee to set out Scotland’s new ten year National Strategy for Economic Transformation. Such events usually involve a room full of press, lots of questions, photographs, one-on-one interviews and then widescale coverage in the Scottish media. This event however was characterised by complaints from print journalists that they were excluded on spurious grounds of ‘ongoing Covid restrictions’, despite the finance minister speaking to a room full of business people and some select journalists to which this rule seemed not to

The price of Brent crude exceeded $112 a barrel this morning. There is, as yet, no interruption in supply from Russia, nor any ban on buying their oil (save for in Canada) – but western companies are reported to be exercising a voluntary boycott. Either that, or they are sceptical of whether their orders will actually arrive. Turkey has already closed the Bosporus Straits to warships. Much of the oil exported to Europe takes this route. Even a voluntary refusal to buy Russian oil will have serious repercussions for markets. Russia produces around 12 per cent of the world’s oil – which is a huge chunk to lose. Except, that

As with Covid-19 it will take time for the full consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to become apparent. But one unexpected impact is already becoming clear: that on air freight. Ukraine, it turns out, occupies a niche at the very heavy end of the industry. Ukrainian company Antonov manufactures the world’s largest transport planes in the shape of the An-225 – a six-engined behemoth built by the Soviets in 1985 and capable of a maximum take-off weight of 640 tonnes – and the slightly smaller An-124. By contrast, the freighter version of the Boeing 747-400 has a maximum take off weight of 450 tonnes. As a total share of the

There is not much more that Britain can do for Ukraine. We have done more than most: sent 2,000 anti-tank missiles and stationed troops in eastern Europe to help other allies. But as thousands flee Kiev – not knowing if Putin will turn it into the next Grozny – there is something immediate and profound that Britain can do: offer asylum. Brexit powers of border control can be used to allow anyone with a Ukrainian passport to come here. Ukraine has a population of 44 million – it’s a small country. It wasn’t so long ago that 450 million Europeans had an unconditional right to live and work in the UK –

Sanctions hit both sides: this is a point that Joe Biden has made to Americans and Olaf Scholz is making to Germans. But Boris Johnson is not (so far) talking about the economic implications of this war. They will be — and in fact, already are — profound.  When Russian tanks moved into Ukraine, the price of gas for next-day delivery in the UK shot up 40 per cent. A study by Investec yesterday suggested this means typical household energy bills — already expected to approach £2,000 in April — could end up closer to £3,000. Quite a hit for a country already facing a cost-of-living crisis. And this is just

Boris Johnson has just outlined a series of further sanctions on Russia. They are considerably more substantial than the ones he announced earlier this week. They exclude Russian banks from the UK financial system, bar Russian firms from raising capital in London and will see the UK join the US’s technology sanctions on Russia. However, Russia will not be cut off from the Swift payments system — it is clear that the UK has, sadly, lost the argument on that for now. This does raise the question of what, if not the unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country, would be enough to lead to Russia being cut off from Swift. In answers

If Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was expecting to bat away some gentle questions on monetary policy before the Commons this morning, he hadn’t reckoned on Labour MP Angela Eagle. She was quietly frothing with rage at Bailey’s recent suggestion that workers need to exercise restraint when asking for a pay rise in order to tackle inflation.  Eagle began like the late Bamber Gascoigne with a series of quick-fire questions on the median salary of UK workers and care workers. Alas, salaries turned out not to be Bailey’s specialist subject — not even when Eagle asked him about his own. ‘It’s somewhere over £500,000,’ Bailey stumbled, before adding ‘I