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The state would be prioritised over everything else. Taxes would be constantly, if stealthily, raised. Spending would be reclassified as investment, and shifted off the balance sheet wherever possible. And macro stability would be out-sourced to the Bank of England, while the Treasury would take total control of domestic policy. A quarter of a century ago this weekend, as New Labour was swept into power in a landslide election victory, Gordon Brown, then a relatively fresh-faced Chancellor, completely overhauled economic policy. In a whirlwind week, he put in place the most far-reaching reforms in a generation. And yet, 25 years on, that consensus is still in place. Twelve years of

This week, a US economy that had been expected to grow in the first quarter of the year was recorded as having shrunk 0.4 per cent – a stunning fall, raising awkward questions about what might come next. This morning, it emerged that the Eurozone grew by just 0.2 per cent over the same period, with inflation in both the US and Europe topping seven per cent. America is ahead of Britain when it comes to the global economic slowdown For weeks now, investors in America have been spooked by the ‘inverted yield curve’: a technical term, but one which carries certain implications. When this happens (i.e., short-term government bonds

A wave of government spending would reboot the economy. Fairer taxes would pay for restored infrastructure. Skills would be improved, productivity raised, and new digital champions would emerge. When Joe Biden was elected, he promised the most radical programme of economic reform since Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s, and, to his army of cheerleaders at least, the American economy was about to be completely transformed. But hold on. Only a year into his term, the reality is very different from the promises. In reality, the Biden Bust has arrived. Donald Trump may have been personally obnoxious, but he bequeathed an economy in perfectly good shape The US GDP figures

Thierry Breton, the European Commission for the internal market, lost no time in rattling his sabre at Twitter as soon as it was announced that the company had accepted Elon Musk’s offer to buy it. Even though Musk had made no announcement on how he intends to run the company, beyond stating his belief in free speech, Breton felt it necessary to warn Twitter that if it ‘does not comply with our law, there are sanctions – 6 per cent of the revenue and, if they continue, banned from operating in Europe.’ There is a reason, of course, for the failure of Europe to produce a tech giant Is Breton’s

It sometimes feels like every regulatory body in Britain today misuses its influence to advance progressive causes. A welcome exception is the Financial Conduct Authority, which last week decided to allow firms to choose whether they use sex or gender as the definition of ‘woman’ for reporting on their representation on corporate boards. It is clearly not the role of a financial services regulator to attempt to define ‘man’ and ‘woman’. Out of 540 responses to a consultation on the matter, all but one said they did not want trans women to be automatically included in the targets and data. As the group Sex Matters has pointed out, there is

Any Conservative who doubts that Labour’s promise to abolish non-dom status could seriously damage the government needs to look at the fate of Rishi Sunak. So recently the heir apparent to the Tory leadership, Sunak has this week plunged to bottom in a poll of the most popular cabinet members. It comes, of course, just a couple of weeks after the revelation that Sunak’s wife was living in Britain as a non-dom – a status which according to one estimate could have saved her up to £20 million in tax over the years. And this was a poll of Conservative party members, so goodness knows how much the revelation has

The latest warning was stark – that China’s population will shrink this year, more than a decade faster than forecast, and the country will become a ‘super-aged’ society by 2035. The economic implications will be a ‘huge thing’. This came not from what Beijing has dismissed as ‘western doomsayers’, but from Zheng Bingwen, director of the Center for International Social Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and one of China’s most respected observers of population trends. He said the ratio of pensioners to workers will rise to 25 per cent in 2030, is expected to exceed 43 per cent in 2050, and is happening much faster compared

If Boris Johnson is forced from office by his own MPs, partygate will only be part of the story. Another huge part of it will be his failure to appreciate the full scale of the cost of living crisis now washing over millions of households – especially his reluctance to address the issue of energy bills. Asked on his Indian trip whether he would consider removing the levies which make up around 25 per cent of electricity bills and around 4 per cent of gas bills he replied:  I want to do everything we can to alleviate the cost of living, but there is a lot of prejudice against the

This time last year, Netflix was fêted as the future of television. Its subscriptions grew by 30 per cent over 2020 as people bought in entertainment during lockdown. Netflix always warned that its growth would slow afterwards and the market seemed to accept that. But its shares have halved since their mid-November peak after a radical reappraisal of its fortunes. What’s going on? Those shares plunged 27 per cent in pre-market trading when Netflix said that, rather than see growth slowing to a mere 2.5 million more subscribers as it had expected for the first three months of this year, it has entered decline – actually losing 200,000 subscribers. A small dent on its

Colombo, Sri Lanka Some 13 years after the end of a civil war that saw 100,000 deaths, Sri Lanka is once again on the cusp of serious violence. Earlier today, the police opened fire on protesters in the town of Rambukkana. One person has died and at least ten people are said to be in critical condition. It’s the first use of deadly force against demonstrators who seem to have filled the entire island in recent weeks. Grainy footage shows half-conscious bodies being carried into hospital, bullet casings littering the quiet palm-lined streets. This was meant to be a time of celebration. Buddhists are marking the new year while the

So, it’s official. The global rating agency S&P has determined that the Russian government has defaulted on part of its international debt. In itself, this is not as big a deal as it may sound. Nonetheless, the circumstances have revived concerns about the future of the US dollar as the reserve asset of choice for central banks around the world. Russia is now judged to be in ‘selective default’ because it has attempted to repay holders of two US dollar-denominated bonds with Russian roubles. At the very least, this is a technical breach of the terms of the debt. It will also probably lead to some material losses for bondholders,

No. 10 was an endless series of parties. The Chancellor was more interested in socializing than sorting out the economy. And the Prime Minister was imposing rules on everyone else that he cavalierly ignored himself. It remains to be seen whether Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak can survive the fines handed out for breaking the lockdown rules and the public anger over their behaviour. And yet, in reality, there is a far larger lockdown scandal and one that will cause far more lasting political damage: inflation. The ‘partygate’ scandal, and its fallout, has distracted attention from yet another sobering set of inflation statistics. Today we learned that prices are now rising