Money

Sanctioning Roman Abramovich will change football forever

With refugees fleeing Ukraine, shells raining down on civilians, and threats of chemical weapons being used on the battlefields of Ukraine, it was surely only a matter of time. Today the British government finally added Roman Abramovich to the list of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, freezing his assets, and making sure that he could not profit from any sales. That will impact his entire fortune, of course. But most of all, it will hit Chelsea Football Club – and radically re-shape the fortunes of the Premier League. Abramovich’s departure will mark the beginning of an exodus of global money from British football In the two decades since a then relatively unknown Russian

James Forsyth

Rising energy bills are a price worth paying to stop Putin

Nato countries are being careful not to do anything that Russia could claim is an act of war. Just look at the reluctance from the US to provide Ukraine with Polish fighter jets. Yet Britain and other Nato members are involved in a huge effort to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine through supplying Ukraine with weapons and imposing financial pressure on Moscow. Russia, a G20 country, has been severed from the world economy. It has now surpassed Iran as the most sanctioned country on Earth and it is beginning to occupy a similar economic position. The speed with which Russia has been hit by these economic measures has been a

The commodity kings: have traders finally discovered a moral compass?

Many people around the world were glued to their screens in horror on 4 March, as they watched Russian shells raining down on Ukrainian cities. On a trading floor in central London, the oil traders at Shell were also glued to their screens – but watching the price of Russian oil. It was becoming a lot cheaper than normal (Brent) oil, due to the understandable reluctance to support Putin. But then again, everyone has their price. The Shell traders watched, and waited, as every minute the price was lowered further– to a $23 a barrel discount, then a $24 discount, then a $25 discount. Finally, at around 4 p.m., the

Robert Peston

Is Boris in denial about the looming economic crisis?

The priority for the UK and other rich democracies is to protect the people of Ukraine from the depredations of Putin’s forces. A close second should be protecting the poorest people in our countries and vital public services from the cancerous impact of soaring inflation, made much worse by the West’s economic warfare against Putin’s Russia. The most basic costs of living are soaring. And that means a devastating recession that has already begun for all those but the richest. This blow to living standards will be the worst in living memory, more pernicious than the impact of either the banking crisis or Covid. Talking to ministers and MPs, it is

Russia’s war on Ukraine: the lessons so far

The sheer complexity – and horror – of Russia’s war on Ukraine makes it difficult to distil the essential points. To take only one example, the battlefront north of Kiev, where the Russian convoy is stalled, is significantly different from that along the Black Sea, where Russian forces from Crimea have made substantial progress. A third front, in the east, is consolidating in Russia’s favour, though the fight was much harder and longer than Moscow expected. Amid this complexity, it is important to summarise what we know so far: 1. Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine appears to be the most catastrophic strategic mistake since the end of the Cold War and

The problem with International Women’s Day

Am I the only one wondering how long it’ll be before the organisers of International Women’s Day are forced to rename their campaign? How, depending on what they mean by ‘women’, it’ll need to be called ‘International People-with-a-cervix Day’ or ‘International People-who-identify-as-a-woman Day?’ Quite what the founders – a group of American workers who back in 1909 demanded shorter hours, better pay and voting rights – would make of the word ‘woman’ being gradually pushed out of the lexicon as a meaningful term we will never know. But on a better note, they would surely be overawed by the progress made in the past 113 years. Women account for over

How close is Russia to collapse?

Russia is now as closed off to the world as the Soviet Union was before Mikhail Gorbachev made his first tentative steps towards glasnost more than 40 years ago. Pretty much all the progress that post-Soviet Russia had made towards becoming a ‘normal’ country has been reversed within the space of two weeks. Vladimir Putin’s presumed legacy – of stability, predictability and hugely improved living standards for the vast majority of Russians – is vanishing before their eyes. In recent days, Netflix and TikTok have joined what had already become a mass western boycott of Russia. American Express followed Barclaycard and Mastercard in leaving the Russian market. Western supermarkets, including Sainsbury’s, are pulling out;

Sam Leith

Remember the Russians who will really suffer from sanctions

When I was in Russia in the very early 1990s, there was a generic figure who seemed to stand at the entrance to every metro station: an ancient babushka in a headscarf and tatty coat, face creased with age and weather, holding out a flimsy plastic bag rolled into a little triangle, begging for kopeks. The collapse of communism had its winners and its losers – and these old women were the losers. The ‘social umbrella’ of the necrotic Soviet system may have provided its pensioners with a miserable existence, as a local explained it to me, but it had provided; and these women, having discovered that freedom is all

James Forsyth

Britain should spend more on defence

Britain must spend more on defence. As I say in the Times today the defence budget is already being increased but it is hard to argue that it is sufficient given how changed the security landscape now looks with Putin’s Russia launching an all-out invasion of a sovereign, European state. Until this week, the UK could argue that it would only increase defence spending still further when other European members of Nato had pulled their weight and were hitting the 2 per cent of GDP target. But now Olaf Scholz has announced that Germany will be spending 2 per cent – or more – by 2024, which poses another dilemma for London: does it

Kate Andrews

Bear market: Russia’s economy is in free fall

How quickly can a G20 economy collapse? That question has come to the fore this week, as the world has united in targeting Russia’s economy while Vladimir Putin continues his illegal invasion into Ukraine. So far, the rouble is down more than 30 per cent on where it was pre-crisis, at an all-time low against the dollar. Russia’s central bank has upped interest rates to 20 per cent to stop a currency collapse. Its stock market is still closed, and is expected to remain so until mid-next week at the earliest – a record shutdown in the country’s history. BP has walked away from its 20 per cent stake in

Ross Clark

Will the Russian Stock Exchange ever reopen?

It is one thing for western companies, funds, investment trusts and others to promise to divest from Russian assets. But what if the Russian authorities won’t let you? The Moscow stock market has failed to open for a fifth day running. Prior to its closure, it had already plummeted by a third after the invasion of Ukraine. Russian investments traded on external markets have continued to plummet during the closure: JP Morgan Russian Securities, an investment trust traded on the London Stock Exchange, plunged by another 15 per cent this morning to 101 pence – just one-eighth of what it was trading at last autumn. Is that a bargain? ‘Buy

John Ferry

The SNP’s flagship economic strategy is pure window dressing

It was an odd launch event for what had previously been a much-touted initiative. While all eyes were on the war in Ukraine, Scotland’s finance minister, Kate Forbes, took to Dundee to set out Scotland’s new ten year National Strategy for Economic Transformation. Such events usually involve a room full of press, lots of questions, photographs, one-on-one interviews and then widescale coverage in the Scottish media. This event however was characterised by complaints from print journalists that they were excluded on spurious grounds of ‘ongoing Covid restrictions’, despite the finance minister speaking to a room full of business people and some select journalists to which this rule seemed not to

Ross Clark

The problem with the UK’s Russian clamp down

I’m no apologist for oligarchs, whether they be from Russia or anywhere else. I have been writing for years about how dirty money was flooding into London’s property market, helping to price out ordinary people who just want a home. The government should have taken action decades ago to prevent kleptocrats from laundering their money through London property and their reputations through our libel courts. These matters could have been addressed quite easily by prohibiting property from being held in the name of overseas private companies and by reforming libel laws to stop the wealthy from threatening journalists and anyone else with eyewatering legal bills. What must it feel like to be

Robert Peston

The invasion of Ukraine and the death of globalisation

Putin’s savage invasion of Ukraine, and the West’s collective response, is the moment that the slow death of financial and trade globalisation has been accelerated and made irreversible. Globalisation has been rolled back since the banking crisis of 2008, first by the banking regulation that followed, then by Trumpian and Brexit nationalism and mercantilism, then by Covid and now by the shock of war. The current dislocation of supply chains, especially for energy but much more broadly, means inflation will be much higher for longer – because businesses will speed up the shift in procurement of raw materials, energy, components and so on to supplies much closer to home. It

Ross Clark

Will the West boycott Russian oil?

The price of Brent crude exceeded $112 a barrel this morning. There is, as yet, no interruption in supply from Russia, nor any ban on buying their oil (save for in Canada) – but western companies are reported to be exercising a voluntary boycott. Either that, or they are sceptical of whether their orders will actually arrive. Turkey has already closed the Bosporus Straits to warships. Much of the oil exported to Europe takes this route. Even a voluntary refusal to buy Russian oil will have serious repercussions for markets. Russia produces around 12 per cent of the world’s oil – which is a huge chunk to lose. Except, that

Ross Clark

War in Ukraine is disastrous for the world’s air freight industry

As with Covid-19 it will take time for the full consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to become apparent. But one unexpected impact is already becoming clear: that on air freight. Ukraine, it turns out, occupies a niche at the very heavy end of the industry. Ukrainian company Antonov manufactures the world’s largest transport planes in the shape of the An-225 – a six-engined behemoth built by the Soviets in 1985 and capable of a maximum take-off weight of 640 tonnes – and the slightly smaller An-124. By contrast, the freighter version of the Boeing 747-400 has a maximum take off weight of 450 tonnes. As a total share of the

Fraser Nelson

Why Britain should offer asylum to Ukrainians

There is not much more that Britain can do for Ukraine. We have done more than most: sent 2,000 anti-tank missiles and stationed troops in eastern Europe to help other allies. But as thousands flee Kiev – not knowing if Putin will turn it into the next Grozny – there is something immediate and profound that Britain can do: offer asylum. Brexit powers of border control can be used to allow anyone with a Ukrainian passport to come here. Ukraine has a population of 44 million – it’s a small country. It wasn’t so long ago that 450 million Europeans had an unconditional right to live and work in the UK –

Kate Andrews

Is Britain prepared for the cost of sanctions?

Sanctions hit both sides: this is a point that Joe Biden has made to Americans and Olaf Scholz is making to Germans. But Boris Johnson is not (so far) talking about the economic implications of this war. They will be — and in fact, already are — profound.  When Russian tanks moved into Ukraine, the price of gas for next-day delivery in the UK shot up 40 per cent. A study by Investec yesterday suggested this means typical household energy bills — already expected to approach £2,000 in April — could end up closer to £3,000. Quite a hit for a country already facing a cost-of-living crisis. And this is just

Ross Clark

Will the West shut Russia out of Swift?

You may never have heard of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications — or at least not by its full name. Even if you had you may have mistaken it for a fairly inconsequential trade body that holds rather dull conferences in hotel function rooms in places like Frankfurt.  Yet it finds itself at the centre of the West’s response against Vladimir Putin. Swift, as it is otherwise known, is the system by which banks communicate in order to undertake cross-border financial transactions. This morning the Ukrainian foreign minister pleaded with the West to cut off Russia from the system. Britain would like to do just that, as would some

James Forsyth

Boris Johnson needs even tougher sanctions to deter Putin

Boris Johnson has just outlined a series of further sanctions on Russia. They are considerably more substantial than the ones he announced earlier this week. They exclude Russian banks from the UK financial system, bar Russian firms from raising capital in London and will see the UK join the US’s technology sanctions on Russia. However, Russia will not be cut off from the Swift payments system — it is clear that the UK has, sadly, lost the argument on that for now. This does raise the question of what, if not the unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country, would be enough to lead to Russia being cut off from Swift. In answers