Money

Kate Andrews

Will Trump follow through on his tariff threat on Canada and Mexico?

No one can really act surprised if Donald Trump pushes ahead with substantial tariffs on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. ‘Tariff’ is the President’s favourite word, as he said many times on the campaign trail in the lead up to last November’s US election. The only words that could compete for the top slot were ‘love’ and ‘religion’. So, the countdown to 1 February – when a staggering 25 per cent border tax is slapped on the countries north and south of America’s border – isn’t, in theory, some dreaded doomsday for Trump. If anything, it’s more like the countdown to Christmas. Is this really the end game for the President? But

Ross Clark

Is Rachel Reeves right that there is no trade-off between growth and net zero?

Why is it that some lies get endlessly repeated without ever being challenged, even though they are quite obviously wrong? In her pro-growth speech today, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves asserted: ‘There is no trade-off between economic growth and net zero’. Government ministers, advisers and many others have been saying such things for years – and hardly ever do they get properly challenged. To pretend that no such trade-off exists is foolish It is easy to see why, for political reasons, you might want to argue that committing Britain to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will not make us poorer and indeed might make us wealthier. You want to

Why Britain needs growth

‘Growth’ – the focus of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech this morning – can be a confusing word. It’s intangible, obscure, hard to visualise. It happens slowly, often imperceptibly, over a political cycle – when it happens at all. The changes needed to achieve it can be tough and involve trade-offs. Often voters feel those changes will not directly benefit them, or may even make their lives worse – whether it’s new housing developments, HS2, a new runway at Heathrow (which Reeves backed) or new nuclear power stations. For anyone who stood on the doorstep during the last election, we know that making and doing more things can be a hard

Rachel Reeves can’t ‘regulate for growth’

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) are under pressure to reduce red tape in the financial sector. “We’ve told our regulators they need to regulate for growth, not just for risk,” the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said. But the idea that tweaking regulations will somehow unlock growth is a fallacy. The idea that tweaking regulations will somehow unlock growth is a fallacy The problem is that these ungoverned and rogue regulators are manned by second-rate lawyers and special interest groups who present their ideas as mainstream. They have never facilitated growth and have created a labyrinth of rules that suffocate the UK’s financial services industry, serving

Katy Balls

Will Labour MPs back Rachel Reeves’s growth plan?

It’s ‘growth week’ in government, as the Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempts to convince sceptical business leaders, bankers and voters that she has a plan to get the economy going. After a dismal start to the year in which bond market jitters saw the cost of government borrowing soar, Reeves is hoping to turn things around with a speech on Wednesday setting out the measures and choices the government is willing to make to drive economic growth. Much of the content is already out there with talk of the government supporting a third runway at Heathrow airport amongst other things. Since the reports first emerged, there have been some grumblings among

How DeepSeek can help Britain

Sometimes a new technology comes along that immediately shakes the world. The release this week of the new Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) tool, DeepSeek-R1, is one such moment. Despite Washington’s efforts to restrict Beijing’s development of AI, including an export ban on advanced microchips, researchers in China have created an AI tool that not only exceeds the performance of American AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, but does so at a fraction of the cost. If we are to believe the hype, it took just $6 million (£5 million) to build DeekSeep-R1, compared to more than $100 million (£80 million) for ChatGPT. This is the equivalent of building the fastest Formula

Has DeepSeek popped the AI bubble?

The arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada in 2018, and the ensuing United States ban on high-end semiconductor exports to China, transformed Donald Trump’s “trade war” into a “tech war”. At the time, the US clearly felt it had a comparative advantage in technology, and that if it had to fight a battle against China, then picking tech as the battlefield made good sense. In September 2021, US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo, declared that: “If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe”. As a result, Europe was roped into a cold war most European businesses – not

Tory Nimbys are walking into Starmer’s trap

The government has yet to formally announce its widely trailed decision to expand Gatwick, Heathrow, and Luton airports. But that hasn’t stopped six MPs from writing to Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander with a pre-emptive attack. The four Green MPs, perhaps, plus a couple of anti-capitalist hard left Labourites? Nope. Four Lib Dems and two Conservatives – one of whom is, astonishingly, Andrew Griffith, the Shadow Business Secretary. The idea of the Shadow Business Secretary campaigning against a core component of economic growth would be funny if it wasn’t so utterly damning Griffith tells Alexander that local residents’ “life is blighted every single day by the noise of take-offs and landings

Ross Clark

Why are so many MPs still clueless about the cost of net zero?

Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Climate Change Agreement for the second time and reiterated his desire that America should ‘drill, baby drill’. The US president’s decision exposes the naivety of MPs in Britain who, in 2019, nodded through a legal commitment to reaching net zero by 2050, with the hope that it would inspire other countries to follow our example. The Climate and Nature Bill risks taking Britain back to the dark ages In fact, Britain is pretty well alone in voluntarily choosing to ‘leave it in the ground’, as anti-fossil fuel activists like to put it. The US has been following an unashamed policy

Rachel Reeves is getting an expensive lesson in economics

It may prove to be just the first of many screeching U-turns. Whilst hobnobbing among the plutocrats in Davos this week, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has admitted that she may have to tweak her clamp-down on non doms, to make it less punitive for anyone who isn’t British, and happens to have a bit of money, to live in the UK. Sure, it is good that Reeves is learning from her mistakes. The only trouble is it is going to prove a very expensive education for the rest of us.  It is only a couple of months since Reeves’s Budget introduced tough new rules for non doms, but it already

The EU’s decarbonisation plan can’t survive Donald Trump

As in a more delirious version of Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day, Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord on his first day in office, again. In a thinly-veiled attempt to mend Beijing’s relations with Europe, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman commented: “Climate change is a common challenge facing all of humanity. No country can stay out of it, and no country can be immune to it.” Whatever their views on climate change, Europeans and British would do well to realise that decades-long effort to reduce emissions through multilateral deals is over. Continuing on one’s own – after America’s explicit repudiation of the COP framework, and in light of the track record

Ross Clark

Rachel Reeves’ tinkering won’t rescue Britain’s economy

The news just seems to get worse for Rachel Reeves. After the slight relief of last week’s inflation and GDP figures, this morning brings headlines that are even grimmer than economists expected. The government was forced to borrow £17.8 billion in December, more than twice the £6.7 billion which Rishi Sunak’s government borrowed in December 2023. In just one month, taxpayers had to spend £8.3 billion to service the government’s debt. Interest payments are now consuming over 8 per cent of government expenditure – more than is spent on education or defence – and very nearly as much as the welfare bill, which is itself ballooning. The Chancellor’s immediate problem is that

Kate Andrews

Donald Trump has promised the world

‘The golden age begins right now’ said the 47th President of the United States as he began his inauguration speech in the Capitol Rotunda. What followed was a 30-minute speech, during which Donald Trump stayed both on script and on message, reiterating his promise to declare a border crisis, deport foreign criminals, return America’s title of energy independence and to ramp on tariffs on foreign countries to ‘protect American workers and families’.  Trump aides had promised that, eight years on, the President’s second swearing-in speech would be different. Gone were the days of promoting ‘American carnage’. Today, the message was to be one of unity.  Here, the President took baby

Will the SNP come to its senses on North Sea oil?

Drill, baby drill. The mood on Net Zero is changing in the Scottish parliament where a majority of MSPs have signed a petition calling for a reversal on the ban on new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea. This sea change in attitudes to the black stuff, if you’ll excuse the pun, could portend a dramatic reversal of the Scottish government’s opposition to fossil fuels in SNP leader John Swinney’s long-delayed energy strategy. The “presumption against offshore drilling” has been the centrepiece of SNP energy policy since Cop26 in 2021, when Nicola Sturgeon posed for selfies with Greta Thunberg. Sturgeon is gone, of course – and her clean

Kate Andrews

Will the IMF regret its backing for Labour’s Budget?

International investors may be jittery about the UK’s future, but the International Monetary Fund appears to be more optimistic. The IMF has published its World Economic Outlook report for January, which forecasts the UK will have the third-fastest growth in the G7 this year. It revises upwards its projection for 2025, by 0.1 per cent, to 1.6 per cent. The UK falling in after the United States and Canada does not make good on Labour’s promise to be the fastest growing advanced economy. But after a tumultuous week of gilt fluctuations, bad growth figures and an even worse retail sales update, it’s a good way to be ending the week.

Rachel Reeves tries deregulation, but she’s bad at that too

If it was a Netflix mystery series, it would be the moment for the ‘big reveal’. After months of boasting about how she would make the UK the most competitive, dynamic, and indeed fastest growing economy in the G7 we finally have some idea of what Rachel Reeves is going to do to deregulate the UK. There is just one problem. She has opted for the worst possible way of loosening the rules – and Reeves will end up sparking an asset bubble.  After summoning regulators to Downing Street yesterday to tell her how to boost growth, some details have started to emerge of what Reeves is planning. According to

Regulators don’t create growth 

Perhaps you could gather a group of traffic wardens and ask them how to build a racetrack. Or get the leaders of the Salvation Army over to suggest some cool ideas for a cocktail bar. Think up any improbable brainstorming sessions, and it will still be hard to imagine anything more awkward than the gathering of regulators Chancellor Rachel Reeves summoned to Downing Street today to give her some ideas on growth. After all, that is her job, not theirs.  Just the concept of frog-marching regulators into the Chancellor’s office and demanding ‘growth ideas’ is ridiculous It hardly sounds like fun. The chief executives of such august sounding bodies as

Kate Andrews

The UK economy is in a rut

The UK economy has grown for the first time in three months. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the economy expanded by 0.1 per cent in November after it contracted by 0.1 per cent in both September and October. This uptick is largely thanks to an increase in services output, which grew by 0.1 per cent in November 2024, after falling by 0.1 per cent in October (a downward revision from last month’s estimate that there had been no growth. So has the economy turned a corner? It’s very difficult to spin this morning’s news in a wholly positive light. Yes, it’s good that the economy did not

Why inflation figures may have given Labour false confidence

The relief from Downing Street at yesterday’s inflation data – which showed that it dipped to 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to December, down from 2.6 per cent the month before – was palpable. Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, cast a breezy image as he described his boss, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as “brilliant”. The choices facing Reeves and Starmer would be bleak Keir Starmer will now be able to offer his Chancellor more than lukewarm assurances that she is not facing the chop. The news will abate the recent cycle of media criticism and with President Trump’s inauguration next week, focus will soon turn elsewhere.  Her

Kate Andrews

Inflation dip marks a welcome surprise for Rachel Reeves

Rachel Reeves has found brief respite this morning, with the Office for National Statistics confirming that inflation dipped to 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to December, down from 2.6 per cent the month before. This is a smaller rise than had been expected (the consensus was 2.6 per cent) and roughly in line with the Bank of England’s forecast from November, which had predicted a 2.4 per cent increase. It’s welcome news for a Chancellor who is under pressure. Core inflation slowed too, from 3.5 per cent in the year to November, to 3.2 per cent in December. This competes for the best news in the update, as core