Money

Stop attacking billionaires

The $5.79 trillion budget plan Joe Biden submitted to Congress yesterday was more notable for what it didn’t include, rather than what it did. There were no line items on the environment or education – key pillars of his ‘Build Back Better’ agenda – but it did call for a new minimum tax requiring ‘billionaires’ to pay at least 20 per cent of their income in taxes, including on the gains on investments that have not been sold. This will, apparently, reduce the government deficit by $360 billion over the next decade. The President is in a tight spot. Since the turn of the year, his approval ratings have fallen

Ross Clark

The rouble’s astonishing recovery

The tank columns are stalled; one or two towns captured from the Ukrainians have been retaken. Russia’s war effort has been going nowhere fast for the past fortnight – unless you count the constant pounding and destruction of apartment blocks a form of progress. But then is the economic war being waged against Russia making any greater progress? True, Muscovites can no longer get a Big Mac, and western-made luxury goods have disappeared from the shelves. Yet look at the dollar’s march against the rouble and it is starting to look like a convoy of Russian armoured vehicles. For the first few days, the rouble sank inexorably as sanctions kicked in.

Katy Balls

‘Do you think people are stupid?’ Rishi Sunak grilled by MPs

After unveiling his spring statement on Wednesday, Rishi Sunak found himself under attack from all sides: his personal approval ratings dived amid a media backlash and criticism from his own side. So, the Chancellor’s appearance this afternoon before the Treasury Select Committee on paper made for a painful session.  Over the course of several hours, the committee of MPs quizzed him on whether he thought people were ‘stupid’ when it came to his pre-election tax cut, the impact of Brexit on trade and why he had borrowed a Sainsbury’s worker’s Kia for a publicity shot. When it came to the latter question, Sunak admitted that his team has asked a supermarket worker

Matthew Lynn

Is Biden trying to crash the economy?

A war is raging in Ukraine. Inflation has risen to a 30-year high and may have started to spiral out of control. The country is on the brink of recession, and a gaffe-prone leadership is under increasing fire. You could be forgiven for thinking that President Biden has more than enough problems right now. But he is about to make his already miserable term in the White House a whole lot worse. How? By adding a stock market crash, and the destruction of America’s best companies, to the already worryingly long list of self-inflicted disasters. It is hard to think of a single tax that could be worse for growth

Ross Clark

Can we trust economic models?

Rishi Sunak shared a delightful moment of honesty on the Today programme on Thursday. Mishal Husain asked him how households will cope if, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast, energy bills rise by a further £830 a year – on top of the rises already due to take effect in April. No, no, no, said the Chancellor, you can’t believe the OBR forecast on energy prices: ‘They just take what the market expectation is at a given time, and since they closed their forecast actually the forecast for energy bills in the autumn has come down by £400.’ It was a fair point. Except, if the Chancellor doesn’t think

Katy Balls

Is Sunak’s spring statement starting to unravel?

The Chancellor woke this morning to a grim set of headlines as the newspapers chew over his spring statement. Despite dangling the carrot of an income tax cut by 2024, most papers focus on the OBR’s projection that inflation will lead to the biggest fall in living standards since records began in the 1950s. While left-leaning papers such as the Guardian accuse Sunak of forgetting the poorest in society, the papers on the right aren’t that much better for him. The Express asks about the ‘forgotten millions’, while the Telegraph roundly criticises his economic package. The Daily Mail has run with a slightly more welcome tone for Sunak but ultimately calls for more tax cuts

Robert Peston

Has Rishi Sunak just destroyed his relationship with Boris?

I said yesterday that I expected the Chancellor to increase universal credit by more than planned. I was misled. I was wrong. Today, Rishi Sunak’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, is explicit about how painful Sunak’s refusal to increase benefits will be for those who rely on them. It says:  ‘Lags in CPI (or inflation) uprating of benefits mean they fall almost five per cent in real terms in 2022-23, reducing their real value by £12bn, and take up to 18 months to catch up fully with higher inflation’. It means those who are unemployed, on very low incomes, or who rely on the state pension, are going to be in

Isabel Hardman

Labour’s economic plan? Reheated Miliband

Rachel Reeves is, as Labour frontbenchers go, pretty experienced. She’s not been in government, but then neither has her leader because there are now young teenagers who have never experienced a Labour government. Reeves has been on and off her party’s frontbench ever since she was elected in 2010, and that long experience was on show in her response this afternoon to the spring statement – in both good and bad ways. This was one of the more confident responses I’ve watched from a Labour frontbencher to an economic statement over their 12 years of opposition. Reeves had a really clever section where she mocked the difference between Rishi Sunak’s reality and

Kate Andrews

Did Rishi Sunak deliver on his tax-cut promise?

Today’s spring statement may not have been a proper Budget – but it could prove to be one of the most significant moments in Rishi Sunak’s time as Chancellor.  At a time when families are facing the double-edged sword of soaring bills and wages falling behind inflation, Sunak was under pressure to offer reassurance. But inflation, which we found out this morning is heading for a 40-year high, is also biting the Treasury. The Chancellor’s response to this dilemma came in the form of several major tax announcements, all targeted at reducing costs for the lowest paid. But Sunak also doubled down on less welcome policies which he insisted are vital for

James Forsyth

Rishi Sunak has just defined the next election

The biggest surprise of Rishi Sunak’s spring statement was the announcement that the basic rate of income tax will be cut by one penny come 2024. This is the first cut in the basic rate since the cut to 20p announced by Gordon Brown in his last Budget in 2007, which was of course partly paid for by abolishing the 10p starting rate of tax. Cynics will be quick to suggest that there is a long way to go before 2024 and so the tax cut might not happen. But this is to ignore the politics. The most likely date for the next election is May 2024. It would be bizarre,

Ross Clark

Welcome to the new era of high inflation

There was a time when a chancellor would have bitten off the hand of a national statistician who offered him an inflation rate of 6.2 per cent. But that takes us back to the days of Denis Healey and the early months of Geoffrey Howe’s time in Number 11. There is little disguising this morning’s grim news, however. The last time the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was at 6.2 per cent was in March 1992 – although at that time the index was little used as the government’s preferred measure of inflation was then the Retail Prices Index (RPI). The worst thing about today’s figure is that it doesn’t even

Robert Peston

What to expect at the spring statement

The big story of Wednesday’s spring statement by the Chancellor will be the impact of inflation – which has soared from almost zero just over a year ago to perhaps 10 per cent in coming months – on living standards and the public finances. I expect Rishi Sunak to provide limited protection from the ravages of inflation to those on low and middling incomes, probably by increasing universal credit and the threshold for paying national insurance.  But quite how far the Chancellor inflation-proofs the take home pay of low earners will be the most important question he will answer tomorrow. Inflation that makes all of us poorer will create the

Can Sunak save British business from the cost of living crisis?

Many Chancellors had their economic vision dashed by political and economic events. The post-war consensus buckled under the pressure of the 1970s oil shock. Gordon Brown stayed around long enough to watch New Labour defeated by a financial crisis. George Osborne’s smaller-state, tight public spending model couldn’t politically sustain itself past Brexit. Remarkably, Rishi Sunak may be a Chancellor to buck this trend, as the economic shocks have occurred before he has put his economic vision into practice. This was in stark relief when the Chancellor delivered his agenda-setting Mais Lecture on the day Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Covid-19 and now a cost-of-living crisis, choppy economic waters indeed. The challenge

Kate Andrews

Will Rishi Sunak stick to his ‘golden rule’?

Here’s the Rishi Sunak paradox: he proudly defines himself as a low-tax Tory but under his watch taxes are reaching a 71-year high. There are plenty of Tories who want to ditch next month’s National Insurance increase but Sunak is firmly opposed – mainly because he wants to link up in people’s minds that more money for the NHS and social care doesn’t manifest out of thin air. But pressure is on at tomorrow’s spring statement to make clear what kind of Chancellor he really is. Does he come from the long line of Tories who like tax cuts in theory but not in practice – or does he have

Does anyone still believe in low taxes?

Speculation over which taxes the Chancellor will slash or, more likely, hike at tomorrow’s spring statement seems to have settled on two areas. First, a cut to fuel duty and, second, an increase in National Insurance thresholds, a way of tweaking the already announced tax hike to reduce the burden on the poorest.  On the first point, a cut in fuel duty could cost the Treasury around £2.5 billion a year (although the government is unlikely to get much political credit if Sunak does go down this route given how quickly energy costs are rising). On the second, it looks almost certain that the Chancellor will proceed with his planned 2.5 point rise in NI

Michael Simmons

How much is Europe (still) paying Putin for oil?

When sanctions were imposed on Russia there was a big exception: Europe was still buying and paying for oil – leading to a bizarre situation. The West was doing everything it could to help Ukraine while still sending Putin hundreds of millions of dollars a day. But how much was that revenue worth to the Kremlin? As sanctions began to hit Russia, the price of Brent crude (the oil benchmark) soared to $130 a barrel, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis: an increase of over 90 per cent. It’s fallen since then but today it’s still sitting between $107 and $115 dollars a barrel – well above where it had been weeks

Katy Balls

Can Sunak prove he’s a low tax Tory?

When Rishi Sunak first envisaged this year’s spring statement, the idea was that it would be policy light. Instead, it would serve as an economic update on the latest forecast and give him a chance to lay out his broad tax aspirations for the year ahead. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine means that the goalposts have moved. The Chancellor has had to adjust to the fact that he has come to the end of one crisis only to be greeted by the next. With the economic fallout from Ukraine only exacerbating the cost of living crisis, Sunak is under pressure to announce measures to ease the pressure on households. So, what

Isabel Hardman

Could the private sector help fix the NHS backlog?

The Conservative plan to tackle the NHS backlog has, so far, run roughly along the lines of the New Labour approach to the hefty waiting lists in the health service at the turn of the century. More money, more flexibility when using the private sector and greater ‘patient choice’ (which in this context translates as patients who’ve been waiting a very long time being able to get treatment in another part of the country where waiting lists aren’t quite so bad). So far, the main difference is that ministers are just shouting a bit less at hospitals (though GPs might argue they are bearing the brunt this time instead) than

Ross Clark

What the P&O debacle really tells us about Brexit

It goes without saying that sacking your entire staff via a ten-minute video call while their cheaper, foreign replacements sit outside in buses is a pretty disgusting way to treat people. True, P&O’s cross-Channel operation has been rendered unprofitable as a result of Covid, but this wasn’t a case of a headcount reduction or management urging pay restraint until the company can get back on its feet again. It was a wholesale dismissal of workers, plenty of whom will have had decades of service. No wonder some refused to leave their ships. How ironic, however, that so many of the biggest critics of P&O this week are ardent Remainers. What