Money

Kate Andrews

Mervyn King: Needless money-printing fuelled inflation

Some £500 billion was printed by the Bank of England during the pandemic – a staggering sum that caused very little public debate. Those sceptical about so-called ‘quantitative easing’ argue that it causes inflation – and with today’s news that inflation rose 9 per cent on the year in April, is anyone linking the two? Step forward Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, who was surprisingly critical when speaking to Andrew Marr on LBC last night. One of the major problems, Lord King said, was that the Bank went too hard and too fast with its money printing. ‘Governments stepped in and put in a lot of

Sunak, not Bailey, is to blame for inflation

Inflation has hit a 40-year high. The cost of household utilities rose by an average of £700 last month. We are now facing inflation of 9 per cent and the figure is still careering upwards. In response, politicians and ministers have attacked the Bank of England. Some commentators have even started to call for Governor Andrew Bailey to resign. The Governor himself and Chancellor Rishi Sunak say there is nothing that can be done about prices rising. They’re both wrong. First, let’s understand why it is unfair to attack the Bank of England. Under our system, the Bank is not independent, as some like to claim. Rather, it has what is called ‘operational independence’.

The protocol is hurting Northern Ireland

With every sausage war or fish fight over the past 18 months, the chances of survival for the Northern Ireland protocol have narrowed. But the fallout from the NI Assembly elections, which saw Sinn Féin become the largest single party, has made it increasingly likely that the UK will take unilateral action to override parts of the Brexit deal. The protocol has few supporters. Arguably its only redeeming feature was that it allowed Boris Johnson to break the deadlock and conclude the withdrawal agreement. Because a porous land border between the UK and the Republic would have threatened the single market – and a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic

Kate Andrews

Andrew Bailey’s inflation excuses have been exposed

This afternoon the Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey appeared, as he has done many times before, in front of the Treasury Select Committee to answer questions about its recent decision-making. Yet the tone of the Committee was radically different to other sessions. Its chair Mel Stride opened by asking Bailey if he and the Monetary Policy Committee – made up of nine members who vote to set interest rates – had been ‘asleep at the wheel’ as prices soared throughout the country. It was arguably one of the easier questions put to him during today’s session: from then on, Bailey and the MPC members who joined him were pit

Kate Andrews

Tinkering with the energy price cap won’t fix it

In principle, the UK’s energy price cap is supposed to provide a buffer for consumers who might otherwise see their energy bills go through the roof. But governments can’t control international energy prices: a lesson that has been learned the hard way over the past six months, as dozens of energy companies have gone bust, unable to raise prices for customers to reflect increasing wholesale costs. Meanwhile the cap has not stopped bills from skyrocketing: Ofgem’s last price cap went up by 54 per cent, taking the total cost for an average household to just under £2,000 per year. Still, if there were any silver lining to this distortive policy

Are sanctions on Russia failing?

Sanctions are the West’s key weapon in the fight against Putin, but there are signs that Russia’s economy and financial system is weathering the storm better than expected. The rouble has already bounced back and Russia has been able to continue to service its debts, with only minor hiccups. A closer look however reveals that sanctions are biting hard – and that Russia is losing the economic as well as military war. Take the rouble’s resurgence, which is not what it seems. The ability of Russia’s currency to bounce back reflects the fact that Russian imports have fallen by more than the country’s exports, as local consumers and businesses have cut spending. This means there

The nihilistic rise of ‘loss porn’

It’s been a terrible few weeks for that guy you know. Bitcoin dropped to a ten-month low (apparently thanks to something called ‘stablecoins’), while $1 trillion has been wiped off the largest tech companies on the stock markets. ‘Retail investors’ – non-professionals with little more than an internet connection – are struggling. You might expect many of them to put their heads in their hands and log off. But that would be to misunderstand the nihilism of online culture. Losing is the same as winning, only better. The thing to do is to post evidence of your catastrophic losses. It’s called ‘loss porn’ and if you look at the ‘WallStreetBets’ page on

Rishi Sunak’s net zero u-turn

How time flies when there’s a real crisis. Just six months ago at the Glasgow climate conference, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak was pledging to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero. Sunak boasted that he was going to make London the world’s first ‘Net Zero Aligned Financial Centre’. It would mean forcing firms to publish plans showing how they will decarbonise and meet net-zero targets to be overseen by a transition taskforce. There was little fanfare when the transition plan taskforce was launched last week. Even though the taskforce is co-chaired by John Glen, the economic secretary to the treasury minister alongside the chief executive of Aviva, you won’t

Kate Andrews

Are we heading for recession?

Fears that Britain could soon be in recession are growing, as the economy appears to have even less power behind it than previously thought. Today’s update from the Office for National Statistics shows Britain’s economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year (consensus was 1 per cent) – and actually fell by 0.1 per cent in March when zero growth was predicted). February’s growth was downgraded as well, from a minimal 0.1 per cent growth to being completely stagnant. Had it not been for increased construction output in March (up 1.7 per cent), the fall would have been bigger: the services industry fell by 0.2 per

Matthew Lynn

The tech bloodbath won’t last forever

To paraphrase the American senator famously talking about government spending, a trillion dollars here or there and very soon you are talking about serious money. Over the last week, a massive $1 trillion has been wiped off the value of the major American technology companies, and, if measured since the start of the year, the carnage is far worse. But is it all as bad as it seems? Sure, some of the excesses of lockdown are being trimmed, and rising interest rates are starting to hurt some wildly over-valued companies. But nevertheless, tech is still where the growth is. And in reality the bloodbath will soon be over. It would

Ross Clark

Is the bond bubble about to burst?

First, the good news: US inflation is down. Now the bad news: US inflation isn’t down by as much as a lot of people were expecting. Cue quite a lot of confusion on the markets. First, the S&P 500 plunged by 0.5 per cent, then it rose by 1 per cent, then it was more or less back to where it started the day. The FTSE100 has performed a similar gyration: first erasing its daily gain and then regaining it, to finish nearly 1.5 per cent up on the day. So, is it positive or negative news that US consumer inflation has fallen from 8.5 per cent in March to

When will Boris face up to the real challenges facing Britain?

It’s rarely a good sign when, moments after a major set piece event such as yesterday’s Queen’s Speech, the government’s PR machine kicks into overdrive to defend it. Though Labour’s claims that Boris Johnson isn’t doing enough to support squeezed households were wearyingly predictable, the Tory narrative about turbocharging the economy and slashing EU red tape has quickly fizzled out. And Michael Gove’s surreal media performance this morning won’t do much to allay concerns that Boris’s government is up a creek without a paddle. Brits are currently facing rising energy bills, inflation is forecast to hit ten per cent and wages are failing to keep up with the increase in prices.

Ross Clark

BlackRock is right to abandon eco-activism

Is this the end of climate activism from pension providers and other institutional investors? BlackRock, which manages $10 trillion in assets, has toned down its enthusiasm for blocking company boards that are not sufficiently committed to a carbon-free future. In January 2020, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink shook up the world of investment by writing an annual letter to the CEOs of companies in which he invests, warning them that in future BlackRock would take a more critical view of their climate change policies. He wrote on that occasion: Last September, when millions of people took to the streets to demand action on climate change, many of them emphasised the significant

In defence of Liz Truss’s retro economics

One of the many curious things about Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is that she has the capacity to drive some people around the twist. There are the Trussites, hovering over her Instagram posts in political adoration, and then there are others who consider her a menace who is about to be made Prime Minister in a sinister conspiracy by Brexiteers. At least she is willing to challenge the groupthink of the Bank of England and the Treasury, both of which are full of clever people who have manifestly failed to manage the inflationary shock currently knocking us all off our perches. At the weekend, it was reported that Ms Truss

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

What reason is there for young people like me to vote Tory?

With a sense of reluctance, I went into a voting booth this week and ticked the boxes corresponding to my local Labour candidates. My rationalisation was simple: I wasn’t voting for Labour, but against the Conservatives.  There is a tangible stench of decay surrounding the Tory party at present. At best, it is incapable of maintaining moral standards. Barely a month passes without some MP’s embroilment in a grubby scandal involving sex, money, or both. The party has no vision for the country, no agenda beyond targeting the young to pay for the old. And if you judge them on results, well, there’s even fewer reasons to vote Tory. The Conservatives

James Forsyth

Why the local election results should trouble the Tories

The overnight results in the local elections are bad, but not disastrous for the Tories. They do not presage a 1997 style wipe-out. And they do not suggest that the public is yearning for a Labour government with Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. In normal times, the Tories could regard them as fairly standard mid-term fare. But the worry for the Tories is that there is so much bad news to come between now and the next election.    The other Tory worry is that no party will go into a coalition with them The Bank of England’s forecast yesterday suggests that there’ll be very little economic growth between now and

Kate Andrews

Are we heading towards a recession?

The US Federal Reserve yesterday announced its biggest interest rate rise in 22 years. Today, the Bank of England follows suit, raising rates at the fastest pace for a quarter of a century. But the biggest question remains: how successful will these hikes be at tackling inflation? The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted six to three to raise interest rates from 0.75 to one per cent. This incremental 0.25 per cent rise was broadly expected by economists – though there had been speculation in recent weeks that the Committee might move faster, after March’s headline inflation rate hit seven per cent. Notably, Committee members in the minority were calling

Ross Clark

Bill Gates vs Elon Musk? I know who my money is on

Is Bill Gates shorting Tesla? He certainly didn’t deny it in an interview with the Today programme. The suggestion is that he has upset Elon Musk, who has complained that he couldn’t take Gates’s philanthropy on climate change issues seriously if he was betting against the share price of the world’s biggest electric car-maker. But Musk’s outburst rather evades the issue: is Tesla’s share price destined to fall? You could be the most ardent climate change campaigner, the biggest enthusiast for electric cars in the world – and still think that Tesla is overpriced. The trouble with Tesla’s market valuation is that not only does it assume that electric cars

William Nattrass

How Hungary torpedoed the EU’s sanctions crackdown on Russia

‘Hungary’s stance on oil and gas sanctions on Russia remains unchanged,’ Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltán Kovacs said on Monday. ‘We do not support them.’ Cue panic in Brussels as European Union ministers discussed a potential embargo on Russian oil imports, plans for which were presented to the European Parliament on Wednesday morning. Claims swirled that Hungary might be allowed to continue buying Russian oil for a year longer than other member states to stop it from vetoing the bloc’s new sanctions package, but Kovacs quickly torpedoed this idea too. Hungary does not ‘see any plans or guarantees on how a transition could be managed based on the current proposals, and