Money

Has the Bank of England’s net zero obsession fuelled inflation?

The Bank of England was made independent to take monetary policy away from flighty politicians who are slaves to expediency and fashionable sound bites. Instead, central bankers imbued with objectivity, prudence and, most of all, economic expertise would be in charge. But when it comes to climate change and net zero, the Bank has shown that poor judgment is certainly not exclusive to elected officials. Only a month ago, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England was touting net zero as a growth elixir. ‘The transition to net zero is a major structural change that needs substantial investment and can over quite a prolonged transition period help to raise

Kate Andrews

Is Thames Water about to sink?

Thames Water appears to be in trouble. The company, which has billions in debt, is in talks with the Treasury about a possible bailout. We may soon be adding the firm, which serves one in four Brits, to the list of victims of rising interest rates. ‘Victim,’ in this case, is perhaps the wrong word. It’s hard to feel sorry for a company that has been relying on ultra-low rates to keep itself afloat, racking up £14 billion worth of debt and now severely struggling to service it. Financial mismanagement is just one of a series of accusations levelled against the company. Its problems have been in the spotlight for years, especially

How do we fix Britain’s stagnant economy?

With every passing week it becomes clearer that the British economy is in crisis. Not the ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ sort of crisis that bedevils the financial markets, but rather the deep-seated, slow-burning crisis of a progressive, life-threatening disease. ‘I am totally 100 per cent on it, and it is going to be okay and we are going to get through this,’ the Prime Minister promised last week. If so, he’s got his work cut out. The economic performance of the UK economy has deteriorated sharply over the last decade-and-a-half compared to its performance beforehand. On key measures, such as output per hour worked, the UK was a poor performer even before the

The Bank can’t blame wages for out of control inflation

After a bruising week, perhaps Andrew Bailey could take some solace in Rishi Sunak’s interview with Laura Kuenssberg this weekend. For a start, the Prime Minister threw his support behind the Bank of England governor, after senior figures within the Conservative party accused Bailey of being ‘asleep at the wheel’. But it was also a reminder that, no matter how bad things may seem at Threadneedle Street, they’re probably worse in No. 10. When Bailey hits out at wages, it looks like another desperate attempt to deflect blame away from his own institution Sunak is facing demands for proof that his plan for our economic recovery will work at a

John Keiger

Will Macron be forced to break his pledge and raise taxes?

The inevitable is at last beginning to dawn on Emmanuel Macron. The extravagant spending spree initiated after the violent and year-long 2018 ‘gilets jaunes’ protests will have to be reversed. With the coffers empty, France is not only at the mercy of international finance, she is now highly vulnerable to the next social or political crisis Overgenerous Covid and energy subsidies are expected to push the budget deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP with the French debt to GDP ratio at 114 per cent, the largest absolute debt pile in the EU and one of the largest in the world. Unlike Italy’s debt, most of France’s is foreign-owned, so

Kate Andrews

Shock as interest rates hiked to 5 per cent

The Monetary Policy Committee has voted seven to two to take interest rates to 5 per cent, a 0.5 point increase. Its thirteenth rise in a row takes rates to their highest level in 15 years, and is being described as a ‘shock’ increase, brought in as a response to the rise in core inflation on the year in May, which has hit 7.1 per cent. The horror of inflation is that it gobbles up your income and your savings After this week’s dire inflation update, the question wasn’t whether the Monetary Policy Committee would raise interest rates, but by how much. After last week’s labour market update, which saw nominal wages

Matthew Lynn

Labour must resist jumping on the mortgage bail-out bandwagon

Millions of potential voters in marginal constituencies face punishing rises in their mortgage repayments over the coming months and years. The government is in disarray on the issue and is largely to blame for the mess. Labour has spied an opportunity to hammer the Conservatives: it is talking about a ‘Tory mortgage penalty’ and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves is jumping on the bandwagon clamouring for mortgage payers to get help. But, if Labour goes too far in its demands, it could pay a heavy price. With inflation stubbornly high, and the Bank of England rapidly losing credibility, mortgage rates are soaring. A two-year fixed rate that cost less than 2

The UK still needs fossil fuels, whether activists like it or not

The Supreme Court is hearing a case today that, if successful, could mean the end of new fossil fuel projects in the UK on climate grounds.  The justices will decide whether to reverse approval for oil extraction at Horse Hill based on downstream emissions from the use of the oil. Whatever the outcome, this case is a damning indictment of the UK’s absurd climate laws.  This is a long-running affair. Horse Hill was first test drilled in 2012 and permitted by Surrey County Council to expand to a commercial scale in 2019. This is the teeth of opposition from local campaigners, including the Weald Action Group, Friends of the Earth, and

Matthew Lynn

Rishinomics isn’t working

Tax rises would bring debts under control. The Bank of England would bring inflation back down again. The government would steadily win back the confidence of the financial markets, repair relations with the EU, remove some of the obstacles to growth and, once all that was in place, try and cut a minor tax or two. When he became Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak promised a very orthodox, centrist economic programme, and one that would have the full backing of the IMF, the financial markets and just about every respectable commentator. There is just one problem, however, and it is not exactly a minor one. It is failing, and failing badly.

Michael Simmons

Sunak’s debt target is slipping out of reach

Threadneedle Street will have all the economic limelight this week as the Bank of England sets interest rates tomorrow. With this morning’s grim inflation update, a rate rise looks all but certain. But this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released an update on Rishi Sunak’s third pledge: to get debt falling. The figures show another target quickly escaping Sunak.  Public sector borrowing in the month to May rose to some £20 billion, almost £11 billion more than the same month last year. That makes it the second most expensive May on record. Meanwhile, in the first couple of months of this financial year, the government borrowed just under

Kate Andrews

Britain risks turning into a stagflation nation

Inflation figures out this morning make for grim reading: the headline rate didn’t budge, sticking at 8.7 per cent on the year in May. Far worse, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose once again, to 7.1 per cent on the year in May, up from 6.8 per cent in April. This latest update from the Office for National Statistics carries far more weight than your usual monthly report. With mortgage costs spiralling into a crisis, the Bank of England will have been looking for any excuse to stick to a dovish interest rate hike or to even hold rates, as the Federal Reserve did last week for the first time

Tom Slater

Mark Zuckerberg won’t kill Twitter

Is Mark Zuckerberg losing his touch? Having just thrown tens of billions at his weird virtual-reality ‘metaverse’, only to see it flop with users, the Meta CEO and co-founder of Facebook appears to be spying another questionable new venture. It’s reportedly called Threads, a cloying techspeak name for what is essentially a rip-off of Twitter. You might think that the last thing the world needs is another Twitter, den of sanctimony and cancellation that it is. But not our Zuck. Threads appears to be an attempt to capitalise on the unease over at Twitter Towers, as advertisers and high-profile users alike have been rattled by Elon Musk’s unpredictable new leadership

Isabel Hardman

Neither party is fully trusted on the economy

Jeremy Hunt was bombarded by MPs worried about the ‘mortgage timebomb’ when he took Treasury questions in the Commons today. Everyone on all sides was concerned, and offering their own ideas of what to do and who to blame. One problem for the Chancellor is that ‘everyone’ includes members of his own party, many of whom are pushing him to do something ‘more Conservative’. The main ‘more Conservative’ policy that Tory backbenchers were promoting was mortgage interest relief. Jake Berry suggested it, arguing that without this kind of support, all the other money spent by the government would be wasted if people lost their homes. Other Conservative backbenchers including Jonathan

Ministers are addicted to intervention

This week Rishi Sunak ruled out direct government intervention to protect homeowners from impending catastrophe. It’s a welcome development – bailing out mortgage debtors would be financially ruinous and grossly unfair on renters. But just a few days ago the Prime Minister was ordering banks to shield borrowers from surging rates, and the Treasury still insists that the chancellor wants banks to ‘live up to their responsibilities’ – the vagueness of which leaves a lot to be desired. There are reports of ministers working with banks to offer more indirect help, like payment holidays. The government has led people to believe that politicians will shield them from any hardship It’s unclear whether the Tories will

Kate Andrews

Are mortgage rates the next crisis?

The average two-year fixed mortgage now sits at 6 per cent, according to financial data group Moneyfacts – just below the 6.65 per cent reached in December last year, after the fallout from Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. Five-year fixed rates aren’t too far behind, at 5.7 per cent. For many of the 2.4 million homeowners whose mortgages are up for renewal between now and the end of next year, this is, at best, cause for alarm. At worst, it’s an alert to a crisis. Later this week, we’ll get last month’s inflation data – and the next rate update from the Bank of England. Threadneedle Street’s dilemma is only getting worse. Between

Matthew Lynn

The Vodafone-Three merger could be a Brexit win

There are plenty of reasons for viewing today’s huge merger deal between the UK mobile networks of Vodafone and Three with suspicion. It could reduce choice for consumers. It may lead to job losses. And it is possible that they will downgrade their service even more than they already have, cut back on investment, and squeeze more money out of a captive market. Yet that is not quite the whole story. In fact, done right, the merger could even turn out to be a rare Brexit win.  Today’s tie-up between Vodafone and Three was widely expected. The two companies will combine their British networks, and will have 27 million users

Could cutting inheritance tax keep the Tories in power?

Is cutting, or abolishing, inheritance tax the key to keeping the Tories in power? Inheritance tax is certainly unpopular and is described by some voters as a ‘death tax’. Back in 2007, the Tories were in a similar predicament to the one they find themselves in now: they consistently trailed Labour in the polls. But that year, the party made a surprise announcement, pledging to raise the inheritance tax threshold. The Tories subsequently regained their lead and went on to win the next general election. As the next election looms, and Labour continues to lead in the polls, Conservative MPs are feeling nervous. Some think that a major announcement to

Kate Andrews

Andrew Bailey’s evidence session was the opposite of reassuring

‘There are obviously lessons to be learned,’ said Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at today’s House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. It was a point he repeated many times over, in reference to the inflation crisis that has plagued Britain for close to two years now. ‘We have to learn lessons from the experiences we’ve had, of course we must… We have to work out what those lessons are.’ But despite repeating this sentiment over and over again, Bailey could not meaningfully come up with one good example of such a lesson, nor could he go into much detail on the mistakes the Monetary Policy Committee has made over the

Ross Clark

Don’t get too excited about deglobalisation

One difference between the rivalry with China and the cold war is that the Soviet Union was completely economically segregated from the western world. That is not the case with China nowadays: cheap goods have flooded western markets for decades. But are we heading back to the multipolar world of the 20th century? China and the West are out of step in terms of monetary policy. China’s central bank actually moved to reduce interest rates this morning, after stronger-than-expected data on wages. A short-term lending rate was cut from 2 per cent to 1.9 percent. How come? Because inflation in China is beginning to go into reverse as its economy

Kate Andrews

Will the tax burden finally start falling?

Is the government ready to start cutting taxes? After taking the burden to a post-war high, it seems ministers are preparing to change direction – in one area, anyway. This morning Jeremy Hunt announced that the energy levy on oil and gas companies, known as the ‘windfall tax’, will come to an end in 2028 – a direct response to growing fears that the effective 75 per cent tax on profits was driving business and investment out of the country. Divestment from the North Sea has become a heavily contested topic. Keir Starmer announced that Labour would ban all new production in the North Sea, perhaps putting into perspective for