Money

During the general election campaign, Labour played a cautious game on tax: the party was careful not to share its bigger plans for getting more revenue into the Treasury until after the election was over. A few major tax hikes were ruled out – income tax, National Insurance and VAT – but it was quickly realised this meant all other taxes were fair game. Only a handful of relatively small tax hikes were announced in the lead-up to polling day, including putting VAT on private school fees and ending non-dom status.  Reeves must take the OBR’s calculations as gospel The softly-softly strategy seemed to work, at least for getting through

Business confidence has plummeted back to the levels last seen in the wake of Liz Truss’s unfortunate mini-budget. Hiring has slowed down as employers worry about all the new rights Labour is about to award their staff. Consumer confidence has fallen, as people worry about the tax rises that will be imposed in the ‘Horror Budget’ set for the end of the month. And the economy, which was growing at a decent clip when the Conservatives left office, has now stalled, with zero growth in the latest quarter. The new Chancellor Rachel Reeves was facing a spluttering economy. But, hey, never mind. It turns out that the Bank of England

Jeremy Hunt is one of the few Tories willing to take the fight to Labour while the Conservative leadership contest drones on. The shadow chancellor gave an on-stage interview at party conference in Birmingham this morning where he continued to attack Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ ‘£22 billion black hole’ narrative. Hunt suggested that not even Labour MPs and members believed that claim, which was why they were having such a big row over the winter fuel payment. ‘We were trounced at the election,’ Hunt said Hunt also warned that Labour was in danger of making decisions based on its own ‘propaganda’, telling Daniel Finkelstein: ‘My worry is that Labour believes its

Russia’s spending on its war in Ukraine continues to grow. Somehow, despite tightening sanctions and increased global isolation, two-and-a-half-years in to the conflict, it appears Moscow can continue to splash the cash on its army – for now. Spending on president Vladimir Putin’s military is set to increase by more than a quarter to 13.3 trillion roubles (£107 billion) next year, according to a draft of the Russian state budget for 2025 revealed this week. This colossal sum – which is nearly double the 6.4 trillion roubles (£52 billion) spent last year – is roughly twice the size of the amount spent by Britain on its own defence. Russia’s government

China’s leaders and economic policymakers – who have been optimistic and confident about the economy for years – are clearly spooked.  Just two weeks ago, Chinese state media was happily insisting that the country was experiencing ‘stable economic growth’. China requires a major rethink when it comes to the economy, something which may be politically impossible for a Leninist government Yet in the last week, Beijing has announced and is expected to approve over £319 billion in new fiscal measures – the biggest monetary policy stimulus since the pandemic. The move is a clear acknowledgement that China has a weak economy with an array of systemic economic and social problems. In another

It takes something when even the Guardian is warning you that your tax rises might end up costing more than they raise in revenue. The paper is reporting today that Treasury officials are becoming worried that the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) will conclude that plans to abolish non-dom status and its associated loopholes will persuade so many rich individuals to leave the country that, even with higher taxes, the government will be the net loser. If that is what the OBR concludes it will blow a hole in Rachel Reeves’ budget next month. Ending non-dom status was one of the handful of planned tax rises which the government was prepared to

The OECD’s interim Economic Outlook report has landed this morning and its forecast for the UK has been revised significantly upwards. Having predicted in May that the economy would grow by 0.4 per cent this year, the policy organisation now expects the economy to grow by 1.1 per cent. This lifts the UK from the bottom of the pack of advanced economies and ties it in second place – alongside France and Canada – for the fastest growth in the G7. The news comes as the OECD declares that the global economy is ‘turning a corner’ (the name of today’s report), as global GDP looks set to ‘stabilise’ at 3.2 per

It wasn’t long ago that a Conservative government was congratulating itself for achieving the lowest unemployment figures in half a century. This won’t wash any more, since the wider picture has become clear: while official unemployment figures remain low, figures for ‘economic inactivity’ have seen a sharp rise. We have 9.4 million of working age who are economically inactive – a number that has increased by one million since before the pandemic. It is just that only a small proportion of them show up in the unemployment figures. Many of the remainder – 2.8 million – are on long-term sickness benefits, a number that has risen by 700,000 since the

It is not hard to imagine what will be in Rachel Reeves’ ‘industrial strategy’. There will be lots of ‘green industries’, along with plenty of ‘cutting-edge technologies’, all designed to nurture ‘national champions’ in the ‘sectors of the future’. And presumably Lord Alli, the Labour donor who has been footing the bill for Keir Starmer’s wardrobe, will be put in charge of overseeing all the details. Alongside the tax rises in the Budget planned for next month, the Chancellor’s promise of a full-blown industrial strategy is a troubling prospect. ‘Around the time of the Budget we will publish a green paper on a new industrial strategy focused on driving and

Smart meters were meant to make our lives easier. They were designed to help us reduce energy consumption and cut bills. Over the last five years, the government has been pushing energy firms to install these meters as quickly as possible. Millions of homes have been fitted with one. The flashing screen monitoring how much power is being used has become a ubiquitous feature in households across Britain. We’re constantly nudged to switch off a couple of lights, or skip a load in the washing machine, as we see what this energy use is costing us. But there’s a big problem with smart meters: millions of them don’t work properly.

With the Huw Edwards court case complete – and the disgraced BBC News presenter given a six-month prison sentence, suspended for two years, after he admitted charges of making indecent images of children – attention has returned to the fact that he could still receive a £300,000-a-year BBC pension. Many are horrified by this. There have been demands that some way should be found to withhold payment from Edwards. I disagree. Imagine if we did decide that those convicted of crimes such as Edwards’ have no property rights A pension is part of the remuneration we receive for work done. It isn’t some extra perk or discretionary bonus handed to

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 5 per cent. This was the expected outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting, which saw members vote 8-1 to maintain the base rate.  Was it a mistake not to cut rates? The latest economic data appears to have persuaded the MPC to lean into their (now) hawkish tendencies and keep rates steady. The headline inflation rate is almost on target but the rise in core inflation in August (which excludes more volatile prices like food and energy) and in services inflation – as well as mixed signals from the labour market – gave the Bank good reasons to wait until later in the Autumn

Inflation was 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to August, unchanged from the month before, today’s update from the Office for National Statistics reveals. This is ever so slightly above the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, but it’s in the ballpark of where it’s supposed to be. And while the Bank expects inflation to rise slightly by the end of the year – to just under 3 per cent – it is due to fall again in 2025 and remain around target for the years to come. These figures are good news for Labour, but they raise question marks over how long the government can continue the

The Chancellor was so shocked when she received the briefings from Treasury officials that she had no choice but to scrap her election commitments. It was so serious that it was about to crash the markets. It had to be fixed so urgently that the winter fuel allowance had to be cut, and we will need huge tax rises in a ‘Horror Budget’ next month. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have made the ‘black hole’ in the public finances central to their government agenda. But hold on. In the kind of twist that would puzzle even the most distinguished astro-physicist, when you look closely