Ukraine

Svitlana Morenets

Why are Russian soldiers videoing their war crimes?

One of the strange aspects of the conflict is that Russian troops not just commit war crimes but film themselves doing so. Another one was released today: a captured soldier surrounded by his soon-to-be executioners. He is standing over a hole he appears to have dug himself. He looks at his Russian captors with contempt, smoking a cigarette and then says ‘Glory to Ukraine’. He is then shot dead. Where and when the video was shot is not yet known. To publish such videos, the Russian soldiers have to be sure that they won’t be punished for it by their own command This is not the first time Russians have publicly

Our Russian sanctions are only helping Vladimir Putin

‘I don’t see a single beneficiary of this crazy war’, wrote the self-made Russian billionaire Oleg Tinkov on his Instagram page on 19 April 2022, less than two months after Russia invaded Ukraine. ‘Innocent people and soldiers are dying every day. This is unacceptable’. His 634,000 followers were stunned to read his anti-war declaration: ‘The generals are waking up with a hangover and realise they have a shit army. Of course, there are morons who draw “Z” but 10 per cent of any country are morons. 90 per cent of Russians are against this war… Stop this massacre.’  The next day Putin’s officials contacted the outspoken tycoon’s executives and threatened

Svitlana Morenets

Will Ukraine retreat from Bakhmut?

‘Is Putin winning?’ asks the cover of this week’s Spectator. Until recently the overall narrative around the war focused on how much land Ukraine was liberating from Russian occupation – but the Kremlin’s strategy of throwing soldiers into the meat-grinder is paying off, with significant progress on their way to the encirclement of the city of Bakhmut. For over six months Bakhmut has been the hottest spot on the Donbas front, with Ukrainian soldiers holding steady against the Russian regular army and Wagner Group mercenaries. But the loss of the salt town of Soledar in January and overwhelming Russian artillery and man density has allowed Russian forces to cut off

Lisa Haseldine

What Belarus gets out of its friendship with China

What has Alexander Lukashenko been up to in China? The purpose of the Belarusian President’s three-day visit, according to state media outlet BelTA, was to continue ‘the long-term course of building friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation’ between the two countries. But the truth is somewhat murkier. Lukashenko is Vladimir Putin’s closest ally. He allowed Russian troops to launch the northern flank of the invasion from Belarus back in February last year. Since then, he has given Russia free rein to consistently transport troops, weapons and supplies through the country. So, could he have travelled to China as a de facto Russian emissary? Lukashenko was full of praise for Xi Jinping’s leadership, congratulating him

Mark Galeotti

Ukraine’s drone war on Russia could backfire

Vladimir Putin has sold his Ukrainian war to the Russian people by trying to find the sweet spot between existential threat and reassuring distance: the Russian president portrays the conflict as a struggle to preserve the nation from a hostile West and its Ukrainian proxy, but one fought safely outside its borders. Increasingly, Kyiv seems to want to bring the war to Russia, though, in a gamble which could go either way. A drone identified as a Ukrainian-made Ukrjet UJ-22 Airborne, capable of carrying up to 20kg of explosives, crashed close to a gas distribution station 60 miles southeast of Moscow yesterday. This is more than 300 miles from the

Inside the court of King Zelensky

The first hint that my audience with Volodymyr Zelensky might not be what I’d hoped for came with the emailed invite. A few days before I’d been told I’d made the shortlist for a select presidential news conference marking the anniversary of the war. Not quite an exclusive interview, granted, but given current Zelenskymania, a decent second best. Images of a cosy roundtable in the secret presidential bunker beckoned. Alas, when the email from his office finally arrived, it was notably bereft of the cloak and dagger one might expect. No orders to leave my phone at home. No secret rendezvous with a blacked-out van. Just an order to report at

Mark Galeotti

Why is Zelensky playing deadly mind games with Putin?

Many have weighed in on how Vladimir Putin’s reign will end. Now it is the turn of Volodymyr Zelensky, asserting that he will be killed by his own. But is this wishful thinking, prediction or trolling? The Ukrainian president was speaking in a documentary, when he said that There will definitely be a moment when the fragility of Putin’s regime will be felt inside the state and then the predators will devour a predator. It is very important, and they will need a reason to justify this. They will remember. They will find a reason to kill the killer. Will it work? Yes. When? I don’t know. There is often

‘For Ukrainians, this is a matter of survival’

Andriy Zagorodnyuk was Ukraine’s minister of defence from 2019 to 2020. He is Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies and is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. To mark the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine, he spoke with Russian Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko. The pair disagreed on Russia’s objectives, the possibility of a negotiated outcome, what a Ukrainian victory might look like, and the fate of Crimea. Sergey Radchenko: Thank you for joining me today, Andriy. I’d like to start by asking: where are we in this war a year on? Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Russia is still attempting to pursue its original goal of

Svitlana Morenets

Why Ukrainians won’t settle for a ceasefire

Growing up as a Ukrainian means being acquainted with death when you are too young to know much about life. When I was a teenager, I saw dozens of coffins being brought to my hometown from Vladimir Putin’s war in the Donbas. Now, I am seeing my friends go to war – and, like so many thousands of Ukrainians, die. One was buried last month: Maksym Burda, a 25-year-old wedding photographer. Another friend went to war this week. This friend, an artist, had just five weeks of accelerated training: now he’s an infantry soldier in one of the hottest spots on the Dobas front. He has been provided with a

Lisa Haseldine

Why is Russia ignoring the anniversary of the Ukraine war?

If you read the Russian newspapers this morning, you would be forgiven for thinking today was a day like any other. You would have almost no clue that 24 February marks the one year anniversary of Putin’s bloody, stalling invasion of Ukraine, in which nearly 200,000 of the country’s men have so far been killed or injured. Not a single Russian newspaper carried any articles commemorating the anniversary this morning. The closest they got to directly acknowledging it was to report the news that Putin wouldn’t be giving a speech today to mark the occasion.  While surprising, Putin’s decision not to commemorate the start of his invasion is, admittedly, not totally unexpected. The war is not going

Justin Welby is wrong: Russia should be punished for its war in Ukraine

As the world marks the grim first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin should give thanks that there appears to be at least one of what Lenin called ‘useful idiots’ left in the West. Step forward – after removing your foot from its usual place in your mouth – the Archbishop of Canterbury, the most Reverend Justin Welby. Fresh from presiding over a schism in the worldwide Anglican Communion over gay marriage, the Archbishop is now favouring us with his deeply misguided views on Putin’s aggression and its possible consequences. It may not sit well with Welby’s milk and water theology Welby has said that ‘when the time comes’

Putin’s fatal miscalculation over Ukraine

It is a full year since Vladimir Putin started his latest war against Ukraine, and only optimists expect that the next anniversary will occur in peacetime. There is little comfort to be taken from the twin possibilities of victory or defeat for the Ukrainian forces. If they win, Russia will remain a potent threat on their borders even though Putin would be likely to fall from power. And if Ukraine loses, it will sink back into the corruption and maladministration that plagued the country before 2022 – with the additional curse of a Russian colonial oppression. Many people had assumed that such invasions could no longer be perpetrated by one

The need for speed in Ukraine: the West must be bold

Kyiv General Valeriy Zaluzhny, stocky, forceful, apple-cheeked, sits at the desk in Kyiv from which he commands all Ukraine’s armed forces. I ask him what they need from the West. First, air defence. With a twinkle in his eye, he unzips his khaki fleece to reveal a garish T-shirt demanding ‘F-16s!’ Next on his list are long-range missiles such as the American ATACMS and the Franco-British Storm Shadow, so they can hit Russian targets beyond the range of their current armoury. Now the General jumps up, disappears behind a glass-fronted office cupboard into an improvised sleeping area, and returns with another T-shirt, this time calling for missiles. It seems he

Putin’s obsession with Russia’s ‘Great Patriotic War’ could be his downfall

Ukrainian and Russian forces have been locked in either dogged stalemate or vicious urban fighting for towns and cities in the Donbass and in the north of the country throughout winter. As the bitter Ukrainian winter thaws, the war will soon take on a more deadly momentum as the spring rains of the Rasputitsa give way to better weather for mobile units. This week marks a year since Vladimir Putin’s invasion. The campaign has been calamitous for Russia: 86,000 soldiers have been killed and wounded. The death toll will rise in the coming weeks. Yet Putin’s regime still not only manages to keep a lid on internal dissent, but continues

Freddy Gray

Joe Biden’s long history in Ukraine

It was only a matter of time before Joe Biden made a ‘surprise’ visit to Kiev. In the year since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the choreographed walkabout with Volodymyr Zelensky has become the must-do photo-op for western global leaders. It’s the 21st century equivalent of an audience with the Pope – a symbolic news happening which shocks no one.  That’s not to say it’s not important. It signals, yet again, that America – the most powerful military and financial player on planet earth – is firmly behind Zelensky and his efforts to repel the Russian invasion. Biden may not, at this moment, be willing to provide the jets that the

The West shouldn’t underestimate Russia in Ukraine

Russia’s winter offensive appears to have begun with a decidedly underwhelming series of operations in the Donbas. So far results have ranged from grinding and very costly victories in the towns of Krasna Hora and Soledar, to an outright disaster at Vuhledar where most of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was destroyed, and its commanding officer killed, after becoming stuck and then fixed by artillery fire in the middle of recently re-laid Ukrainian minefields.   Meanwhile, a long-running operation by Wagner mercenary troops to take the partially encircled town of Bakhmut continues, and Russian forces are making probing attacks as far north as the Russian border near Kharkiv oblast and as far south

Putin’s inhumane war strategy is backfiring

The war in Ukraine changed fundamentally after Vladimir Putin failed to capture Kyiv and decapitate the regime there a year ago. His army settled into Russia’s traditional way of war: a slow, brutal, relentless slugfest. That strategy necessarily expends countless Russian lives. Human-wave attacks rely on untrained troops, dragooned from prisons or off the streets. The idea is to use these expendable men to weaken Ukraine’s front-line defences and then follow them with more sophisticated attacks by Russia’s battle-hardened troops. Risky as it is for Russia to double down, it is really the Kremlin’s only path to victory This strategy has cost countless lives on both sides while producing only

How Russia is weathering the storm of Western sanctions

After war broke out in Ukraine a year ago, amidst a slew of shop closures, sanctioned products and predictions about the ruble falling to rock bottom, there was a wave of panic buying in Russia. Many expected supply chains to fully collapse by the end of 2022 as internal stocks of this and that ran out. Meanwhile pro-war Russians, or at least economic optimists, repeated the mantra that the world needed Russian oil and gas, and that Western companies could barely do without the vast Russian marketplace to sell their products in. Everything, they said, would return to normal. As of February 2023, we’re caught somewhere halfway between these two

Ukraine shouldn’t cancel Russian culture

It is entirely understandable that the barbaric attack on Ukraine launched a year ago by Vladimir Putin has sparked enraged reactions among Ukrainians as they endure Russian missile strikes and await Putin’s much anticipated spring offensive. Attacking the culture of an enemy nation has a long and ignoble history, and it rarely ends well But in spurning and destroying Russia’s incomparable musical and literary culture the long-suffering Ukrainians are hitting out at the wrong enemy. The Times reports that Kyiv Opera House is deleting the music of the Russian composers Tchaikovsky and Prokofiev from a ballet, The Snow Queen, that is currently in rehearsal. The work’s director Serhii Skuz calls

How African gold pays for Russia’s war in Ukraine

African wars are paying for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at least indirectly. When Vladimir Putin was running low on manpower and money in October last year, he turned to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group for more of both. Wagner have had troops in the Donbas region as far back as 2014, though in limited numbers. Now the Wagner group is providing thousands of troops throughout occupied Ukraine and funding the Russian army with its spoils from Africa. That though is creating a cashflow crisis for Prigozhin whose income is primarily from African gold and diamonds.   Wagner’s problem, and thus Putin’s, is that a conventional land war in Ukraine costs more