Ukraine

Owen Matthews

Europe has left Ukraine living on borrowed time

Russia started the war on Ukraine, so Russia should pay for the damage it has wrought. Such was Volodymyr Zelensky’s forceful message to European leaders last night as he pleaded for a ‘reparations loan’ backed by the €190 billion (£167 billion) of Russian Central Bank capital frozen in a Belgian clearing bank since Putin’s full-scale invasion. ‘Just as authorities confiscate money from drug traffickers and seize weapons from terrorists, Russian assets must be used to defend against Russian aggression and rebuild what was destroyed by Russian attacks,’ Zelensky told his European allies. ‘It’s moral. It’s fair. It’s legal.’ But after negotiations that went late into the night, Europe ultimately shied

Lisa Haseldine

Keir Starmer's Russia problem is here to stay

Keir Starmer will travel to Berlin this afternoon to join European leaders for a ‘mini-summit’ in support of Ukraine following two days of talks between president Volodymyr Zelensky and American officials. Zelensky has been in the German capital since yesterday, locked in talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner to hammer out the terms of a peace deal on the war in Ukraine that can then be presented to Russia. US representatives have also been invited to this afternoon’s mini-summit – due to kick off shortly after 5.30 p.m. UK time. Overnight, Witkoff declared that ‘significant progress’ had been made with Zelensky. There has

Mark Galeotti

How Russia’s National Guard may stymie the latest Ukraine plan

One of the crucial obstacles to a Ukraine peace deal appears to be Vladimir Putin’s demand for the remaining fifth of Donetsk region not in Russian hands. Kyiv not only resents the idea of surrendering hard-defended land, it also fears this could be use it as a springboard for future attacks deeper into Ukraine. One potential workaround under debate is apparently allowing Moscow to claim it, but also making it a demilitarised zone (DMZ) to ensure Russian troops stay out. But it’s not so cut and dried. The notion of a DMZ may seem like an elegant way to square the circle of Putin’s demands and Ukraine’s concerns, but it’s

Owen Matthews

The war in Ukraine is reaching its endgame

Painfully and chaotically, the outline of the peace deal that will eventually end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is emerging as the US leans on Kyiv to abandon key red lines. It may still be months before the guns finally fall silent. But one by one various roadblocks to an eventual agreement are falling away. Crucially, this week Volodymyr Zelensky conceded that his country needed new presidential and parliamentary elections. Moreover, for the first time, he floated the possibility that a Ukrainian military withdrawal from Donbas could be put to a national referendum.  ‘The Ukrainian people must answer the territorial question,’ Zelensky told reporters on Thursday. ‘I say clearly: yes, I

Tuesday

Owen Matthews

Why Putin thinks destiny is on his side

The Kremlin pulled out all the stops for the visit of Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow today. Accompanied by Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, Witkoff and Kushner strolled through crowds on Red Square with minimal security after lunching at a fancy restaurant on Petrovka street. Not coincidentally, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi was also in town for a meeting with Russian Security Council head Sergei Shoigu, where Russia affirmed its support for Beijing’s One China policy.  It was a sophisticated piece of great power signalling intended to send a multi-part message to Donald Trump. First and foremost, the Kremlin was showing off its new

Thursday

Owen Matthews

The path to peace in Ukraine will be tortuous

In order to impose peace terms, you first need to win the war. That fundamental principle seems, for the moment, to elude Ukraine’s European allies. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has taken the more pragmatic – some would say more cynical – view that Ukraine will never defeat Russia and therefore needs to make the best of a bad lot. Trump’s strategy for peace in Ukraine has been to browbeat Volodymyr Zelensky into approving a deal acceptable to Vladimir Putin. In fairness, Trump has also gone some way to putting the squeeze on the Kremlin too, by sanctioning the oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, authorising the Ukrainians to use

Tuesday

Bob Seely

'Peace' is just another ploy in Russia's playbook

Predicting Russian behaviour is a fool’s errand. As a young ‘stringer’ in Kyiv during the dying months of the Soviet Union, I was bemused by the analysis of Western journalists from their elite compounds in Moscow, who saw a very different world to that experienced by those of us in the ‘sticks’. This deal is little more than a sophisticated Kremlin disinformation campaign It is with some trepidation then that I write this. While I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the peace deal Ukraine has reportedly agreed to, I fear any ‘agreement’ will prove to be little more than a sophisticated Kremlin disinformation operation, designed to hurt Volodymyr Zelensky when

Friday

Svitlana Morenets

Volodymyr Zelensky is facing the ultimate test

Standing outside his presidential office in Kyiv tonight, on the same spot as on the second day of Ukraine’s full-scale war with Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Ukrainians. He said he hadn’t betrayed the country then and wouldn’t do so now. Ukraine faces ‘one of the most difficult moments in our history’, he said, while the Trump administration presses it into a deal with Russia. The US, once Ukraine’s biggest ally, has issued an ultimatum: either Zelensky signs the framework of the 28-point peace plan drawn up by Washington and the Kremlin by next Thursday, or Trump will cut intelligence-sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine.  The pressure on Ukraine right now

Thursday

Lisa Haseldine

The Ukraine peace proposal raises more questions than it answers

Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting US officials today for the first time since the news of a US-Russia peace plan for Ukraine emerged yesterday. The Ukrainian president, fresh from a trip to Turkey, is due to meet with the American army chiefs Dan Driscoll and General Randy George – the most senior Pentagon representatives to visit Ukraine since Donald Trump’s return to the White House – who are in the country on a ‘fact-finding’ mission. The purpose of the meeting is for Trump’s representatives to discuss ‘efforts to end the war’. While the agenda has not been made public, it is highly likely the trio will discuss the new 28-point peace plan,

Owen Matthews

Ukraine is on the verge of political collapse

Defeat, political implosion and civil war – those are the jeopardies that Volodymyr Zelensky faces as Ukraine heads into the most difficult and probably the last winter of the war. Evermore effective Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure are likely to plunge swaths of the country into cold and darkness. Russian troops continue to push forwards slowly and bloodily in Donbas and, more dangerously, on the southern flank in Zaporizhzhia. Desertions from the Ukrainian army are up four times since last year and the number of deserters now matches the number of active fighters. The US has turned off the money taps and Europe struggles to produce the

Monday

George Llewelyn

Chernihiv is on the frontline of Russia's cruellest winter campaign yet

First, the power went out in the bar. A few minutes later came the familiar low, concussive thud of an explosion nearby, the kind that makes the walls tremble and the glasses rattle on the shelves. Somewhere close, a few streets perhaps, a Russian drone had found its mark. Almost as quick as it came, the sound dissipates, leaving an ambivalent quietness in its wake. Inside, the waitress lights candles, which flicker as if battling to keep darkness at bay. From a phone sitting on the bar, she plays music, the sound, tinny and weak, fighting to drown out the silence. Outside, buses speed along the street, clamorous beacons of

Wednesday

Freddy Gray

Will peace in Ukraine elude Trump?

28 min listen

With a Gaza ceasefire deal, President Trump’s attention has turned to ending the war in Ukraine. A meeting with Putin was suggested, before coming to nothing. Owen Matthews joins Freddy Gray to talk about the fundamental differences between Trump and Putin, the limits on Ukraine’s President Zelensky when it comes to negotiation and why the global west keeps misunderstanding Russia time and time again. Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

Thursday

Eliot Wilson

Nato is far too complacent about Russian drones

Something is afoot in Nato’s airspace – but the alliance’s complacent response to the various incursions is rather troubling. In recent weeks, suspicious drones have intruded into the jurisdictions of Belgium, Germany, Denmark and Norway; identifiable Russian drones were tracked over Romania and shot down over Poland. Three Russian Mikoyan MiG-31 fighters violated Estonia’s airspace and loitered for 12 minutes before retreating when Italian F-35 aircraft were scrambled to intercept them. Putin is testing the alliance, pushing it little by little, upping the ante by increments to see what response he finds You might think that these various incidents would shake Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, out of his usual

Anastasia Piliavsky

Zelensky’s attack on Odesa is a step too far

In a single week, Kyiv has launched a triple attack on Odesa: on its language, history, and elected government. The city, which for almost four years has endured relentless bombardment and held Ukraine’s maritime front, now finds itself besieged by its own capital. With growing calls for an election, Zelensky appears to be clearing the field of rivals The most startling of these moves against Odesa is president Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to strip Gennady Trukhanov – the city’s three-times-elected mayor – of his Ukrainian citizenship and office. The charge is that Trukhanov holds a Russian passport, which the mayor flatly denies. Yet without a court hearing or any due process,

Monday

Svitlana Morenets

Ukraine is determined to give Russia a taste of its own medicine

Russians living in the Belgorod region of Russia got a taste of what Ukrainians have been enduring for over three years of war last night, after they spent it without power, hot water or internet. Ukrainian forces set the Belgorod power plant ablaze with US-made Himars missiles after the Trump administration reportedly gave Kyiv the green light to target Russia’s energy grid with American weapons during the UN summit last week. With winter closing in, Russians once untouched by the war now dread that they will be forced to live just like Ukrainians, suffering from daily bombardments and power outages. The strike came after Moscow unleashed nearly 500 drones and

Wednesday

Owen Matthews

Trump has called Europe and Ukraine’s bluff

Has Donald Trump just announced the most consequential foreign policy reversal of his presidency? If so, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and France’s Emmanuel Macron – the last leaders to speak to Trump just before his epochal announcement – should be careful what they wish for. Despite a reputation in some quarters for being a master manipulator, Putin utterly failed to correctly read Donald Trump In the mother of all flip-flops, Trump on Wednesday posted on Truth Social that ‘Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.’ That’s a position that even Joe Biden, in

Friday

Svitlana Morenets

The Coalition of the Willing is unwilling to defend Ukraine

When Volodymyr Zelensky was asked to describe the security guarantees finalised for Ukraine at the Coalition of the Willing summit in Paris yesterday, the word he reached for was ‘theoretical’. Theoretical guarantees for a theoretical ceasefire: 26 countries pledging, in theory, to support peace in Ukraine on land, sea and in the air after the war ends. With Vladimir Putin actively regrouping his troops for an autumn push to seize the rest of the Donetsk region, nobody knows when this war’s end might be. The plan on the table is a shadow of what Kyiv was promised a year ago The plan on the table is a shadow of what

Thursday

Colin Freeman

Ukraine’s Foreign Legion was doomed from the start

It seems that people would rather fight for a death cult than a democracy. At most, 15,000 foreigners have fought in Ukraine over the past three years. By contrast, an estimated 35,000 foreign fighters joined Islamic State, despite the risk of prosecution when they returned home. Why have so few westerners joined up, given that Ukraine’s Polish border is just a £50 Ryanair flight away? The answer is that despite having a master showman like Volodymyr Zelensky as its recruiting sergeant, Ukraine’s International Legion was a disorganised shambles from the start. Zelensky announced the Legion’s creation just three days into the invasion. ‘This is the beginning of a war against

Saturday

Eliot Wilson

Why a peacekeeping buffer zone in Ukraine won't work

The 24 hours within which Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine have turned into more than six months of desultory negotiations, and there is still no sign of even a temporary halt to the fighting. This is a blow for the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’, the loose affiliation of 31 countries assembled by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron to help implement the terms of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. There had first been informal discussions between the UK and France about creating some kind of alliance as early as November 2024, but the Prime Minister formalised the idea in March this year when

Thursday

Owen Matthews

Putin’s trap: how Russia plans to split the western alliance

Though you wouldn’t know from the smiles around the table at the White House this week, a trap has been set by Vladimir Putin designed to split the United States from its European allies. In Washington on Monday, Europe’s leaders, plus Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelensky, agreed with Donald Trump that the killing in Ukraine should and can be ended as soon as possible. They lavished praise on Trump for reaching out to the Kremlin, despite having themselves treated Putin as a pariah for the past three years. And they even enthusiastically applauded the notion of security guarantees similar to Nato’s Article Five ‘all-for-one and one-for-all’ mutual defence clause

Monday

Mark Galeotti

Why Putin wants Donetsk

Will Ukraine’s fate depend on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka? These may not be household names, but they are the four key ‘fortress cities’ in the remaining portions of Donetsk region that Vladimir Putin is reportedly demanding as the price for peace. Although the details are still unclear, it seems that the framework for a peace deal agreed in outline between Putin and Trump would see the Russians agreeing to freeze the current front line. They could maybe even hand back some small sections of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions they have conquered in return for Kyiv surrendering the much larger portion of Donetsk region it still holds. Territorial

Eliot Wilson

Starmer's coalition of the willing has been saved from itself

It is commonplace to accuse politicians of being out of touch. There is often some truth in the charge, and our elected representatives take it on the chin. One of the least likely politicians to face this charge has always been John Healey: the defence secretary has been one of the most sensible and pragmatic ministers in Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet – not a high bar, admittedly. And yet there are signs that he has succumbed to the Ministry of Defence’s corrosive habit of dealing with the world as it wants it to be, not as it is. Our armed forces are in no position to deploy significant numbers of

Thursday

James Heale

Does European solidarity over Ukraine matter?

14 min listen

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has spent today with Keir Starmer at Number 10. This is in anticipation of tomorrow’s Alaska summit between Presidents Trump and Putin – where European leaders will be notably absent. Zelensky’s visit to the UK is designed to project an image of solidarity with Starmer, and European leaders in general – but does it really matter? And is Putin really closer to accepting a ceasefire? Tim Shipman and James Heale join Lucy Dunn to discuss Plus – Tim talks about his article in the magazine this week, for which he spoke to George Finch, the 19 year old Reform councillor who is leader of Warwickshire County Council.

Tuesday

Svitlana Morenets

Putin's summer offensive is gaining momentum

Vladimir Putin is set to arrive at his meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday with additional leverage: his summer offensive has finally reached momentum. In recent days, Russian forces have breached Ukraine’s defensive line near Dobropillia, north of Pokrovsk, pushing up to ten miles deep into the western sector of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. The advance, carried out mainly on foot and motorbikes, has yet to crystallise into a full-scale breakthrough, but it ranks among the fastest Russian gains of the past year – and comes at the worst possible moment for Kyiv. It was not drones, but endless infantry that allowed Russia to penetrate