Russia

‘Rejuvenation is unstoppable, we will prevail,’ blared the editorial in the Chinese newspaper Global Times. The subject was China’s resurgence, but it looked oddly apposite in light of an inadvertently overheard conversation between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Some Western journalists have mistaken this as evidence of Putin’s hubris and his personality cult ‘Biotechnology is continuously developing,’ commented Putin as the two men walked towards the podium in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square during the military parade to mark 80 years since Japan’s surrender in World War Two. ‘In the past, it used to be rare for someone to be older than 70 and these days they say that at 70 one’s still a

Will Ukraine’s fate depend on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka? These may not be household names, but they are the four key ‘fortress cities’ in the remaining portions of Donetsk region that Vladimir Putin is reportedly demanding as the price for peace. Although the details are still unclear, it seems that the framework for a peace deal agreed in outline between Putin and Trump would see the Russians agreeing to freeze the current front line. They could maybe even hand back some small sections of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions they have conquered in return for Kyiv surrendering the much larger portion of Donetsk region it still holds. Territorial

Let’s imagine, for a moment, that Vladimir Putin actually respects Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to stop the war in Ukraine. We know what this will spell for millions of Ukrainians. It will mean a chance, among other things, for the ferocious nightly bombings to end and for the country itself to draw breath. But ask yourself this: what happens when over half-a-million Russian troops finally come home? What happens when over half-a-million Russian troops finally come home? To make predictions, you first need to know exactly who these soldiers are and where Russia found them. Throughout the war, Putin has avoided, as far as possible, recruiting in St Petersburg and Moscow

Many in Europe may still believe that a Russian invasion of one or more Nato countries is unlikely, if not absurd. This view seems convenient, but it is increasingly divergent from reality. Confidence in the alliance’s principle of so-called collective security is, sadly, becoming not a deterrent but an incentive to aggression by Moscow. The idea floating in the air in Europe seems to be the following: ‘Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. How can it threaten Britain or the Baltic states?’. This is rhetoric from another era. War is no longer what it used to be. And neither is Russia. The future invasion of the Baltic states will not

It seems conventional wisdom by now that the public can only be convinced by hyperbole. As Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte implies that Britain faces a choice between the NHS and Russian conquest, it is worth asking how much this actually damages democracy – and helps Vladimir Putin? The real threat Russia poses is less of direct military action but through its ‘hybrid war’ instruments of subversion and division Rutte is on tour in a bid to sell the new orthodoxy that Nato member states – many of whom barely, if at all, hit the previous target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence – must commit to spending

Is it getting harder for Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić to maintain his balancing act between Moscow and the West? Why else, after all, would Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) suddenly revive a year-old story about covert arms supplies to Ukraine? Back in June of last year, the Financial Times splashed the story that Serbia had exported around €800 million (£673 million) worth of ammunition to third parties that then ended up being transferred to Ukraine. At the time, Vučić did not try to deny this, but said that it had nothing to do with Serbia. ‘We have had many contracts with Americans, Spaniards, Czechs, others,’ he said. ‘What they do