Russia

Why won’t the West use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine?

Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, there has been a great deal of temptation to seize Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West. There is, after all, an urgent need and moral imperative to make the aggressor pay and use Russia’s money for Ukraine’s cause. But the reality is that unless European governments show urgent determination, Russian money is unlikely to be used to support Ukraine in its totality any time soon.  Amid the spat between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump last week, which resulted in the US stopping military aid to Ukraine, the issue of financial support for Kyiv has never been more critical.

Mark Galeotti

Why Russia has shrugged off Trump’s sanctions threat

While Donald Trump may be threatening Moscow with major new sanctions, as it continues to hammer Ukraine with drones and missiles, the Russians seem unfazed. They assume this is just rhetorical for now – and they are probably right. This week has seen the US progressively cutting off its support for Ukraine, first suspending arms shipments, then pausing intelligence sharing and even access to the satellite imagery used to help target Russian bases and arms depots far from the frontline. The Russian business press has largely ignored Trump’s sanctions threat The Russians, far from resting on their laurels, have responded with an escalated campaign of drone and missile strikes –

Russian spying has become a pathetic, amateurish business

Make no mistake: whatever higher moral authority they may have invoked in their defence, Soviet and Russian spies have never been good or honourable people. Kim Philby, the suave Martini-sipping traitor sent dozens of brave anti-Communist volunteers to their deaths. Konon Molody – alias Gordon Lonsdale, Canadian vending machine salesman and kingpin of the Portland Spy Ring – did not balk at blackmailing and threatening his hapless sub-agents into doing the KGB’s dirty work. But as the sordid revelations about the latest crop of Russian spies convicted yesterday in the Old Bailey’s Courtroom Seven reveal, the major difference between Moscow’s agents of yore and those of today is how lowbrow,

Freddy Gray

Is China serious about ‘war’ with America?

48 min listen

Freddy Gray is joined with Michael Auslin who is an academic and historian at the Hoover Institute and author of the Substack ‘THE PATOWMACK PACKET’. They discuss China’s response to Trump’s tariffs, whether China is serious about threats of war and how concerned Trump is about China’s relationship with Russia. 

Mark Galeotti

Trump’s pausing of intelligence sharing will hit Ukraine hard

The United States’s decision to suspend all intelligence sharing with Kyiv is a less visible but almost as serious and more immediate blow to Ukraine as the pause to arms deliveries. It also raises worrying questions about the future of intelligence sharing amongst Western allies. Ukraine is used to supplies of military materiel coming in fits and starts, and can and does stockpile ammunition, spare parts and the like to cover the dry seasons. It will probably be a couple of months before the pause really begins to have an appreciable impact on their operations. Besides, while some items such as Patriot missiles cannot be duplicated, domestic production and European

Is Trump Putin’s useful idiot?

Those whose mouths have been left hanging open by Donald Trump’s pivot towards Russia in the past fortnight, and the ruthlessness with which the Ukrainians (and Europe) have been thrust off the stage, haven’t been paying attention. The love-in between the two leaders has been going on now for a decade. It started properly in 2015, when the foreplay between the two ‘strongmen’ was conducted, like so many great flirtations, at a coy distance. Trump told CBS network he and Putin would ‘probably get along… very well,’ while Putin, to show willing, responded that Trump was ‘a very outstanding person, talented, without any doubt.’ Trump, eyelids-a- flutter, schmoozed back that

Ukrainians are keeping calm and carrying on in defiance of Trump

In 2023, I had coffee with the celebrated Ukrainian novelist Andrey Kurkov, on Yaroslaviv Val Street in the ancient heart of Kyiv. The modern city is built over the ruins of the rampart built by Yaroslav the Wise, the eleventh-century Grand Prince of Kyiv, to keep out invaders. Now, on the third anniversary of the most recent invasion of Ukraine, Kurkov, whose novels are known for their dark humour, is in a much more sombre mood. Donald Trump’s savage and surreal attacks on president Zelensky have left the country reeling. ‘Of course, Ukrainians are shocked and upset,’ he says. ‘If two weeks ago Russia considered Americans and Poles their main

Donald Trump is utterly wrong about Ukraine’s leadership

The Anti-corruption Action Centre, the NGO I chair, is probably one of the loudest watchdogs in Ukraine that is monitoring President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration. We expose corruption, advocate for comprehensive rule-of-law reforms, and demand better governance ­– even during war. For over a decade we have built anti-corruption infrastructure in Ukraine, and endured persecution for simply carrying out our work. We want to strengthen Ukrainian institutions and build a more effective, resilient democracy. It’s unacceptable for any foreign leader (even of the United States) to humiliate our president, decide on behalf of the Ukrainian people that we should hold elections, and spread falsehoods about who started the war.

How the Ukraine conflict has changed the nature of war

Three years ago today, Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border in a massive surprise attack. Russian unit commanders and soldiers were told to prepare for a three-day campaign – and indeed by the end of the day parachute units were fighting for control of the vital Hostomel military airport just a few miles from the centre of Kyiv. But over a thousand days later, many of the fundamentals of war and politics have been changed forever.  For one, Europe found its conscience. In the run-up to the full-scale Russian invasion, some European countries – including Britain – were training Ukrainian infantry units in scattered partisan warfare and supplying man-portable anti

Lisa Haseldine

Putin is watching Trump attack Zelensky with glee

Britain might not even be close to putting boots on the ground, but proposals by Keir Starmer to send UK troops to Ukraine have already been rejected by the Kremlin. Put forward by the Prime Minister as part of a plan to send a 30,000-strong European peace-keeping force to the country in the event of a ceasefire with Russia, this idea is ‘unacceptable’, the Kremlin has said. Reacting to plans reportedly being prepared by Prime Minister Keir Starmer with leaders on the continent (some of whom have already refused to involve their countries in), Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said such a proposal was ‘a matter of concern’ as it would

Damian Thompson

Holy War and Antichrist: The rise of extremist rhetoric inside the Russian Orthodox Church

35 min listen

The subject of Ukraine shattered the unity of Eastern Orthodoxy long before Russia’s full-scale invasion began. In 2018 the Ukrainian Orthodox Church declared independence from Moscow with the approval of the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople. In response, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow broke off all relations with Constantinople, creating arguably the greatest schism in Orthodoxy for 1,000 years. There are now two main Ukrainian Orthodox Churches: one that supports independence and one still loyal to Moscow. As The Spectator’s Ukraine correspondent Svitlana Morenets points out, Ukrainians who previously didn’t care which church they attended now have to decide which to attend. Meanwhile, Dr Yuri Stoyanov, a fellow at SOAS, describes the alarming

What Putin wants and what America will do

If I had a penny for every time I have been told that Russian President Vladimir Putin only wants respect. Or that he is only interested in eastern Ukraine. Or that if Kyiv is only denied NATO membership then he will call off the tanks. Well, in the last seven days US President Donald Trump has given Putin all this and more. And, though it is still early days, so far the war is showing no sign of slowing. And what has the man who wrote The Art of the Deal asked for in exchange for all this diplomatic largesse? Absolutely nothing. In fact, the only substantive demand Trump has

Mark Galeotti

How seriously will Putin take Ukraine negotiations?

We have no idea whether Vladimir Putin is serious about peace negotiations with Ukraine. He may simply be going through the motions while enjoying the spectacle of the West engaging in mutual recrimination and performative outrage, or he may genuinely feel there are grounds for some kind of agreement. More likely, given his track record as a tactician rather than a strategist, he is simply seeing what opportunities emerge. Nonetheless, his choices of format, venue and representatives may give us some sense of his intentions. His lead negotiator at abortive talks in Istanbul in 2022, for example, was Vladimir Medinsky. A former minister of culture, his main claim to fame

Trump risks playing into Putin’s hands on a Ukraine peace deal

With the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the quest for a peace deal for Ukraine is off to a troubling start. The conversation hinted at an eventual normalisation of United States-Russia relations and signalled that negotiations are likely to be led over the heads of Europeans – and Ukrainians – and possibly without input from Trump’s own Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg.  ‘As we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine’, Donald Trump wrote after his conversation with the Russian leader. ‘President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE.’ We both believe very strongly

Trump might really be a ‘peacemaker’ in Ukraine

In a move likely to mark the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war, Donald Trump today announced that he had begun talks with Vladimir Putin. Trump has already held a ‘lengthy and highly productive phone call’ with Putin, he announced in a post on Truth Social, adding that they agreed to ‘have our respective teams start negotiations immediately’. The Biden administration promised repeatedly that no peace deal would be negotiated over the heads of the Ukrainians. But that was always, frankly, a lie. Trump at least has sufficient respect for Ukraine to be honest that the endgame of the war was always going to be decided in Washington, not

Could Russian sanctions soon be lifted?

Markets are rife with rumours of impending talks between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on a ceasefire for the war in Ukraine. Even before Trump told the New York Post last week that he had spoken with Putin over the telephone and that the Russian president wanted to end the war, stock market traders were rushing to buy stocks from the businesses associated with Ukraine. Ukrainian sovereign bonds, shares in the Austrian bank Raiffeisen, the Ukrainian mining company Ferrexpo and global steelmaker Arcelor Mittal have all posted record gains over the past week. The markets are betting on a prompt ceasefire and for sanctions against Russia to be eased. However, Moscow

Mark Galeotti

Has Putin picked up the phone to Donald Trump?

So, did they speak? How often? What about? The very coyness around the question of whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone – Trump says so, maybe more than once, while the Kremlin is neither confirming nor denying – suggests that pre-discussion discussions on the war in Ukraine are indeed already taking place. General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for the war, has stated that no peace plan will be unveiled at next weekend’s Munich Security Conference (the Davos of the security set). But in some ways that is disingenuous. As one Foreign Office staffer suggested, ‘It’s not necessarily the time and place for a public reveal,

Mark Galeotti

Russia’s quest to woo Africa is paying off

The West may like to convince itself that it is, in the words of one American diplomat, ‘strangling the Russian foreign ministry’, but it ought to look south for a rather different perspective. On Tuesday, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was in expansive mood as he announced the formation of a brand-new Department of Partnership with Africa. Recognising that for years Moscow had neglected Africa, Lavrov blamed in part the bankruptcy of the late USSR and Russia in the 1990s, when embassies had to be shut down and sold off. I remember one polyglot diplomat who, while serving in Nigeria, had taken to spending his mornings giving English, French and Russian

Mark Galeotti

Can a second Kursk offensive give Ukraine bargaining power?

In theory, the Kursk salient is one of the most militarily insignificant fronts of Putin’s war on Ukraine. However, war is ultimately all about politics, and the presence of Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is sufficiently problematic for President Vladimir Putin that Kyiv has decided to deploy more troops in a bid to reverse the slow recapture of the occupied territory. Having originally seized some 400 square miles in its lightning attack in August 2024, by last month, steady Russian pressure had shrunk Ukraine’s grasp on territory to some 180 square miles. Although Ukraine still held the town of Sudzha – about the only significant settlement in this area –

Should the West be worried about DeepSeek’s ‘Sputnik moment’?

My late mother proudly possessed a curious object: a tea cosy decorated with the image of a Sputnik. In 1957, when Russia launched the world’s first satellite, this item would have been a charmingly incongruous mix of old and new technology. But today, younger readers might struggle to identify the functions of both a tea cosy and the shiny, spiked silver ball that was Sputnik 1.  Back in the day, the world was shocked by the news that the Soviets had beat the West in the race to space. The New York Times mentioned the satellite in 279 articles in October 1957, the month of its launch. So profound was