Russia

When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched, the overall mood among those around me – Russians from a range of ages and social groups – was one of scarcely believable elation, even hope. ‘Judging from the news this morning,’ one man said to me that day, ‘the borders of the Russian Empire will soon be moving westwards.’ I didn’t share his enthusiasm. ‘In two years’ time, we’ll be lucky if there’s a Russian Empire at all,’ I replied. Last Saturday, as Prigozhin and his Wagner group set out on their abortive coup, the picture was reversed: for the first time in 18 months, I felt a limited optimism about

The leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has released an 11-minute audio message after leading a march on Moscow. Here is an edited transcript of what he said: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) is probably the most experienced and combat-ready unit in Russia, and possibly in the world. (It is made up of) Motivated fighters, who have performed a huge number of missions in the interests of Russia – in Africa, in Arab countries and around the world. Most recently, this unit has achieved good results in Ukraine. (Yet) As a result of…ill-conceived decisions, this unit was due to cease to exist on 1 July 2023.  A

Both Vladimir Putin and the mercenary Wagner Group have been dramatically weakened by yesterday’s attempted coup. Wagner’s nominal leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, goes into exile while his group will no doubt lose its privileged status. Putin, meanwhile, has been publicly and massively humiliated, a dangerous position for an autocrat. Firstly, Putin’s famed security forces proved completely helpless during a mutiny. Secondly, the mutineers – whom he called ‘traitors’ and promised to severely punish – will go unpunished. Putin had to make major concessions to bring an end to the coup, although what those concessions include is not yet clear. What is clear is that he was unable to crush the most

Up until this point, it was possible to believe that Putin was tolerating, or even orchestrating Yevgeny Prigozhin’s increasingly outspoken attacks on the military leadership and ‘the elites’ in Moscow. Vladimir Putin himself didn’t seem especially pleased with his generals. Only a few days ago, he turned his back on his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, at a ceremony to give medals to injured soldiers. The fact that this was broadcast on state television makes it all the more likely that this was a deliberate, icy snub. Putin is said to like to pit his subordinates against one another, the better to stop an obvious successor from emerging. But Prigozhin’s attacks

As Ukraine pushes forward its long-anticipated counteroffensive, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu seems more concerned with reeling in his institutional rivals, not least the wildcard Wagner group. But internecine institutional tensions are not the only affliction plaguing Russian occupation forces. As temperatures rise and the Ukrainians press the frontline, infectious diseases remain another challenge for Russian forces. In Wagner’s assault on Bakhmut, the self-proclaimed ‘most powerful army in the world’ made a slow, eight-month advance and suffered soaring casualties, of which 90 per cent were reportedly prisoner recruits. One in five of the 50,000 Wagner prisoner recruits who made up the bulk of their assault on Bakhmut were HIV positive – and a staggering 80 per cent

Lately Vladimir Putin has been strikingly unwilling to subject himself to any serious debate about his war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, he came the closest yet, spending more than two hours talking to war correspondents working for either the state media or nationalist social media channels. It was hardly an inquisition, but there were some interesting insights into his thinking to be gleaned. Despite the clear evidence of a steady contraction in the Kremlin’s aspirations and expectations from the original intent to conquer the whole of Ukraine, he refused to accept that the goals of the ‘special military operation’ had changed in any way. Rather, he asserted, that although they