Russia

Mark Galeotti

How Putin will make Assad pay for his exile

‘Brave Assad fled to Putin. Where will Putin flee?’ asked Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky after the Syrian dictator escaped embattled Damascus for Moscow at the weekend. Assad was granted asylum in the Russia capital on the ‘humanitarian grounds’ he had denied his own subjects for so long. But what kind of life is Putin offering him? On the face of it, the answer is a rather opulent one, even if in practice it means becoming part of one of the most rarified zoos of all: Putin’s collection of ex-dictators. West of Moscow, a little way beyond the city’s MKAD orbital motorway along the A-106 Rublyovo-Uspenskoye Shosse, lies the village of

The Russian nuclear threat is looming once more

It is 00.40 pm, 26 September 1983. Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty commander in charge of monitoring the Soviet Union’s early warning satellites designed to identify American missile attacks, is carefully checking his panels. Suddenly, the alarms roar into loud action. The word ‘Launch’ flashes onto his screen in large red letters. For the next 15 seconds, one of the satellites reports that five American Minuteman missiles have been launched and are heading towards the Soviet Union. Based in a secret bunker hidden deep beneath the woods just outside Moscow, Petrov is transfixed and stares at the screen in disbelief and shock. The automatic order to launch in retaliation is also sent to Soviet

Russia’s tanking ruble spells trouble for Putin

Russia’s ruble is in trouble. The currency has plunged to its lowest rate against the dollar since the weeks after the outbreak of war against Ukraine. On Wednesday, the ruble hit 110 against the dollar for the first time since 16 March 2022. The currency has recovered slightly, to 108 against the dollar this morning, but in Moscow people are worried. There are no good remedies for the Russian economy’s malaise apart from ending the war Russians who lived through the tumultuous years after the collapse of the Soviet Union know all about the dangers of currency devaluation. While, clearly, things aren’t as bad as they were in the 1990s,

Kate Andrews

Kate Andrews, Mark Galeotti, Adrian Pascu-Tulbure, Michael Hann and Olivia Potts

31 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Kate Andrews examines the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary (1:20); Mark Galeotti highlights Putin’s shadow campaign across Europe (7:10); Adrian Pascu-Tulbure reports on the surprising rise of Romania’s Calin Georgescu (15:45); Michael Hann reviews Irish bands Kneecap and Fontaines D.C. (22:54); and Olivia Potts provides her notes on London’s Smithfield Market, following the news it may close (27:28).  Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Mark Galeotti

How will Putin respond to Ukraine’s Storm Shadow attack?

The air raid sirens sounded yesterday, the American embassy in Kyiv closed, as did the Italian and Greek. The British and French embassy warned nationals to take care and encouraged staff to work remotely. The Ukrainian air force warned residents of the city to seek shelter from an incoming massive air attack. And then nothing happened. It’s not clear which is more embarrassing. That the Russians seem to have been able to perpetrate a nerve-jangling hoax, not least by circulating messages on social media and messaging apps seeming to come from HUR, Ukrainian military intelligence. These claimed that a ‘particularly massive’ airstrike was on the way involving more than 300

What really caused Vladimir Shklyarov to fall to his death?

At approximately 1 a.m. on Saturday, 16 November, Vladimir Shklyarov fell to his death from the fifth floor of his apartment block at Lieutenant Schmidt Embankment on St Petersburg’s Vasilyevsky Island. He was 39. That much is true. How and why he fell will be the subject of ongoing conjecture, perhaps for years to come. Shklyarov posted on social media: ‘I’m against all warfare…I want neither wars nor borders’ Nicknamed ‘the Skylark’ by English-speaking balletomanes, Shklyarov was nearing the end of his career as one of his generation’s greatest dancers, possessing an elegant lyrical, yet athletic, virtuoso performance style and technique, which was second to none. His whole career was

Russia’s mephedrone problem is spiralling out of control

Russians are, stereotypically, known as heavy vodka drinkers – a fact that is often celebrated, despite all the bodily perils it entails. What’s rather less talked about is that Russia suffers one of the worst HIV epidemics outside Africa. This is thanks, in no small part, to heroin users sharing needles. But the latest challenge to public health, aside from the meatgrinder in Ukraine, is the synthetic stimulants craze behind which lie an underworld of cyber drug cartels. Russia’s drug problem is nothing new The annual death toll from illicit drugs has more than doubled since 2019 to over 10,000 a year, a gruesome trend that’s likely to continue as the stress of the

How Ukraine can survive Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential election is seen as a tragedy for Ukraine. Trump and Ukraine certainly have a troubled history. During Trump’s first term, when he pressured president Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden, this effort led to Trump’s first impeachment. Trump’s sympathy for, indeed admiration of, Vladimir Putin is well-known. Trump and vice president-elect JD Vance claim to have a plan to swiftly end the Russian–Ukrainian war, presumably by strong arming Kyiv to cede territory to Russia and abandon its bid for Nato membership. Is Ukraine doomed and headed toward defeat and subjugation by Russia? Putin prefers fighting to a ceasefire and will likely reject any Trump

Cindy Yu

Why Beijing is wary of a Russo-North Korean alliance

56 min listen

There have been reports that some 11,000 North Korean troops are present in Russia and preparing to take part in the Russian invasion. While not acknowledged by either country, if true, this would mark a historic milestone: the first East Asian state to send troops to Europe since the Mongol Empire.  And yet, both countries’ most powerful neighbour and ally – China – has remained suspiciously quiet about this new development. Beijing’s silence may well express a deep distrust and unease that actually characterises China’s relationship with its so-called allies. To get into the recent developments and what we can learn from the history of the relationship between these three countries, the

What does Trump’s win mean for America’s allies – and its enemies?

When Donald Trump won his first-ever election in 2016, the world woke up the next morning in a collective state of shock and disbelief. Washington’s allies in Europe were caught completely unprepared; all of a sudden, they had to contend with a leader who relished needling them for all kinds of sins, real and perceived. America’s allies like Japan and South Korea, whose defence policies depend almost entirely on a stable alliance with the United States, were now forced to deal with a man who threatened to use those alliances as leverage to extract greater defence spending in Tokyo and Seoul. Latin America didn’t know what to believe, and frankly

Svitlana Morenets

Ukrainians brace for Trump’s return

‘Donald Trump is like the light at the end of the tunnel’, an American told me last night at the only Washington DC bar throwing a pro-Trump election party. For many Ukrainians, though, he’s more like the end itself. Trump has called himself ‘good friends’ with Vladimir Putin. He said ‘Ukraine no longer exists’ and that ‘even the worst deal [with Russia] would be better than what is now’. Ukrainians got the hint and hoped for a Kamala Harris’s victory. But Americans have chosen, and now Kyiv will bend over backwards, trying to convince its biggest military backer not to abandon Ukraine.  Trump has called himself ‘good friends’ with Vladimir

Lisa Haseldine

Why is Putin not congratulating Donald Trump?

It’s long been assumed that Donald Trump is Russian president Vladimir Putin’s preferred opposite number in Washington. So it might come as a surprise to learn that the discussion in the Kremlin this morning has been whether or not Putin should congratulate the new president-elect on his victory at all. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters he had no idea whether the president planned to send his regards to Trump. Whether or not he did, Peskov said, would have little difference: ‘It is practically impossible to make things worse; relations are historically at their lowest point.’ America, he reminded the press pack, was still an ‘unfriendly country that is

Donald Trump’s win marks the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war

Donald Trump’s election victory heralds the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war – and is likely to leave Vladimir Putin in control of most, if not all, of the territory he has seized in nearly three years of bloody conflict. To many Ukrainians, such an outcome will be a betrayal of their struggle, a stab in the back by the West that will sow decades of anger and resentment. To others, though, a swift end to the conflict before more land is lost and tens of thousands more young Ukrainians die represents the best hope of actually salvaging a decent future for their country before their infrastructure, economy,

Meet the western conservatives moving to Russia

Tofurious Maximus Crane was sitting in a barber’s chair in Moscow when he received the greatest news of his life. It was 19 August, the day Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to immigrate to Russia. Now, the 46-year-old native of Virginia Beach, Virginia, could finally achieve his life’s dream of remaining in Russia for ever. ‘For me, the decree is the best thing that ever happened in my life besides, you know, family and children,’ says Crane, a charismatic bear of an American who sports a long Old Testament beard and perfectly coiffed hipster hair. ‘I got the notification about the decree, and I jumped up out of

Russia is creeping towards stagflation

The Central Bank of Russia raised its benchmark rate to a twenty-year high of 21 per cent on Friday – and has indicated that it could go even higher. Even Vladimir Putin, a notorious serial boaster, won’t be caught bragging about this tell-tale sign of a not-so-healthy economy. The writing is on the wall: Russia is getting closer to stagflation – a no-growth, high-inflation economy.  An interest rate this high is unprecedented. In February 2003, still fresh in his job, Putin launched reforms to kick-start the Russian economy after the 1998 financial meltdown; the central bank brought its refinancing rate to 20 per cent and has kept it below that level ever

Mark Galeotti

Can Russia really ban smoking?

The UK isn’t the only place which has been toying with the idea of introducing a ‘generational’ tobacco ban. Rishi Sunak’s bill that would ban sales to anyone born after 1 January 2009 was taken over by Labour following the election, but now it is Russia that is debating a similar measure. The Ministry of Health is reportedly close to proposing a ban on the sale of tobacco and other nicotine-containing products to everyone born after 31 December 2009. A draft bill has already been circulated and has been adopted by the New People party, one of the government’s tame pseudo-opposition factions, although it has not yet been reviewed by

Svitlana Morenets

Is North Korea joining the war in Ukraine?

In Russia’s far east, North Korean soldiers are reportedly being trained to fight in the war against Ukraine. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, has said that more than 10,000 North Korean troops will not only assist and train Russian forces, but also fight alongside them – starting next month. At least 2,600 of these troops could be deployed in Russia’s Kursk region, to free up Russian soldiers to join Vladimir Putin’s offensive in the Donbas. Zelensky said this means North Korea has ‘effectively joined’ the war South Korea’s spy agency reports that North Korea is sending 12,000 men from four brigades, including elite special forces, to join the war in

Mark Galeotti

The Novichok inquiry raises some big questions for MI5

The inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess as an innocent victim of the attempt to murder Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal in 2018 has begun, a mere six years after the event. The question is, what can it tell us that we don’t already know? Britain’s love affair with lengthy, expensive and tardy inquiries continues with, in this case, a brief to ‘ascertain… who the deceased was; how; when and where she came by her death’, to identify ‘where responsibility for the death lies’ and to ‘make such recommendations as may seem appropriate’. On one level, all the inquiry can offer is a snapshot of what happened in what seems

Mark Galeotti

Why MI5 is so worried about Russia’s GRU

Ken McCallum, head of the Security Service (MI5), has warned of the serious threat to Britain posed by the Russian and Iranian intelligence agencies. McCallum said in a speech yesterday that the Russian GRU was on a mission to generate ‘sustained mayhem on British and European streets’, deploying ‘arson, sabotage and more dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness’. That the GRU is being highlighted demonstrates both how the threat to the UK is evolving, but also the changes underway in Russia’s intelligence agencies. Officially, since 2010 the GRU has been known as the ‘GU’, but everyone from Putin down still uses the old name. The GU, or Main Directorate of

Lisa Haseldine

Without Navalny, Russia’s opposition is tearing itself apart

Since the death of Alexei Navalny in an Arctic penal colony in February, Russia’s opposition movement has found itself in disarray. Instead of Navalny’s death uniting those exiled Kremlin critics campaigning for a democratic future for Russia, the past eight months have seen the opposition movement fracture into bickering factions, unable to collaborate on anything much at all. Now, that fighting has broken out into the open – and risks putting the cause of a future democratic Russia in jeopardy. Last week, Latvia’s anti-corruption bureau announced they had begun an investigation into allegations made by Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) that Latvian law enforcement officers had had a hand in organising a

Mark Galeotti

Vladimir Putin’s 72nd may have been his unhappiest birthday yet

Happy birthday, Mr President? With Vladimir Putin turning 72 on Monday, this has become an opportunity for the Kremlin’s spin doctors to present their ideal notion of the septuagenarian sovereign. Ambitious courtiers have been competitively performing their sycophancy, as if in an over-the-top production of King Lear. Posters were anonymously pasted up in Kyiv, vowing that ‘Putin will come and restore order’ The ponderous official paper of record, Rossiiskaya Gazeta, offered up a portrait of the diligent chief executive: ‘Russian President Vladimir Putin will celebrate his birthday in a working environment. On October 7, the head of state will meet with CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States‘) leaders who will arrive

Putin’s cannon fodder: an anthem for Russia’s doomed youth

Many were killed. Others hid in the fields, forests and basements, sometimes for days, before surrendering to the Ukrainian forces. Frightened, ill-equipped and with very little – if any – training, hundreds of Russian conscripts (prizyvniki) have been captured in the two months since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region began. Yet another of the innumerable tragedies of Putin’s criminal war, the plight of conscripts is a window into Russia’s ability to conduct a ‘long war’. When neither the army’s relentless press-ganging nor its exorbitant sign-up bonuses and soldiers’ salaries appear to attract enough men to make up for the staggering casualties on the front, it is these boys who

The secret behind Putin’s booming war economy

Russia’s spending on its war in Ukraine continues to grow. Somehow, despite tightening sanctions and increased global isolation, two-and-a-half-years in to the conflict, it appears Moscow can continue to splash the cash on its army – for now. Spending on president Vladimir Putin’s military is set to increase by more than a quarter to 13.3 trillion roubles (£107 billion) next year, according to a draft of the Russian state budget for 2025 revealed this week. This colossal sum – which is nearly double the 6.4 trillion roubles (£52 billion) spent last year – is roughly twice the size of the amount spent by Britain on its own defence. Russia’s government