World

Saturday

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

How Putin will rig the Russian election

Pity the poor political technologists, as Russia’s professionals in the dark arts of spin, propaganda, gerrymandering and outright ballot box stuffing are known. They are not only expected to produce the exact expected election result – that’s the easy bit, when you control the count – but they are meant to make it look as plausible as possible. That’s the rub. As Russia goes to the polls, there is no question whether Vladimir Putin will be re-elected by a landslide. Indeed, it has long been rumoured that the presidential administration has already decided on the result: a clear first-round victory for Putin with 70-plus per cent of the vote on

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Will France’s Olympians embarrass Macron?

France host England tonight in the final match of the 2024 Six Nations. ‘Le Crunch’, as this fixture has come to be known, is never for the faint-hearted but this evening’s atmosphere is likely to be especially febrile. The match is being played in Lyon, in the south-east of France, instead of the Stade de France in the north of Paris. There’ll be 20,000 fewer fans because of Lyon’s smaller stadium but the noise they will generate will be far greater than the corporate crowd in Paris. Lyon is rugby territory. There are several famous clubs within a 100 mile radius and the chance to barrack les Rosbifs ­– the French retort

Paul Morland

Hamas blew Gaza’s golden opportunity

Whatever else the arguments concerning the Gaza War, none is more wrong-headed than the suggestion that Gazans were living in such straitened circumstances that they had no choice but to ‘break out’ on 7 October. Palestinian solidarity protestors routinely describe Gaza as a ‘prison camp’. Even the Foreign Secretary David Cameron has previously used that term to talk about Gaza. In the wake of the Hamas massacre, the UN Chief Antonio Guterres insisted that the events of 7 October ‘did not happen in a vacuum’. Although he later denied that this was a ‘justification’ of the murders, rapes and kidnappings of Israelis by Gazans, Guterres’s comments tied in with a

Friday

James Lewisohn

How Ozempic fattened up Denmark’s economy

It’s official: weight-loss wonder drug Wegovy (also marketed as Ozempic) makes US celebrities shrink but makes the Danish economy grow. This week, the most amusing Oscars clickbait featured not the typical best- and worst-dressed actors, but instead celebrities who have experienced recent miraculous weight loss. The Daily Mail helpfully split this award category between those confirmed to have taken Wegovy, and others who have merely inexplicably and rapidly shrunk. Their collective weight loss is Denmark’s economic gain: this week, Denmark’s statistics agency confirmed the Danish economy grew 1.8 per cent in 2023 – but without the contribution of Wegovy’s owner, Novo Nordisk, it would instead have shrunk 0.1 per cent. Free market

Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

It’s time to declare Putin an illegitimate president

For the next three days, Russians are heading to the polls supposedly to choose the country’s next president. Except we already know, as do most Russians, who the winner will be. It is a foregone conclusion that after this weekend Vladimir Putin will win another six years in power.  But just because the Russian elections are a sham doesn’t mean they are insignificant. In fact, quite the opposite. This weekend marks a threshold in Putin’s grip on Russia: regardless of the margins by which he will claim to have won another presidential term, he will no longer legitimately hold power. Putin’s fifth term will shortly see him overtake Stalin as the second

Svitlana Morenets Svitlana Morenets

Ukraine has brought the war back to Russian soil

Ukraine can’t stop Vladimir Putin’s re-election as Russian President on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean it can’t shatter the perfect image of his sacred day – by bringing the war once again to Russian soil. Throughout the week, Ukrainian drones have been striking oil refineries and energy facilities deep inside Russian territory, while anti-Kremlin Russian militias fighting on Ukraine’s side have crossed the border on tanks and started a fight with Russian forces. This incursion into Russian territory wasn’t unprecedented: last spring, exiled Russians fighting on Ukraine’s side infiltrated several Russian towns in the Belgorod region, fought for several days, and then withdrew. The dire state of Russia’s border defences hasn’t improved

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Does it matter that Emmanuel Macron doesn’t have children?

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to the French press this week and passed on a message to the people. ‘Your children are not going to die in Ukraine,’ he said. He made his remarks 24 hours before the French parliament voted on a bilateral security agreement that Zelensky signed with President Emmanuel Macron last month. The vote, which went the way of the government by 372 to 99, is symbolic but it allowed parliament to voice their opposition to Macron’s recent belligerent rhetoric towards Russia. The left-wing La France Insoumise voted against the agreement, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally abstained. A leader without a child is more likely to think

Thursday

Sam Kiley

Why do South Africans still support the ANC?

Support for South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress, has just fallen below 40 per cent, which makes it very likely that, come the May election, there’ll be a coalition government. I’m surprised that support for the ANC is as high as it is. Across South Africa, states run by the ANC are failing. Infrastructure has collapsed and unrepaired sewage systems mean the water is polluted and poisonous. Electrical systems are down and the railways and ports are often closed. Property prices in Cape Town soar as South Africans flee here from all across the rest of the country. Because South Africa’s rand has collapsed against the euro (and

Wednesday

Andrew Tettenborn

Why can’t Ukraine trademark the phrase: ‘Russian warship, go f**k yourself’?

Ukraine’s bravery and daring in the face of Russian aggression marks a stark contrast with European – or at least EU – lethargy and disinclination to take sides. A recent spat over, of all things, European trade mark law is a case in point. In early 2022, a soldier on the desolate Snake Island in the Black Sea famously added to Ukrainian folklore by greeting the Russian cruiser Moskva, which had come to take over the island, with the words ‘Russian warship, go f**k yourself’. This slogan quickly became hot merchandising property. Kyiv understandably decided to put to work to aid the war effort: it applied to register the phrase as a European

Matt McDonald

Biden and Trump heading for US election rematch

The United States is heading for a Donald Trump vs Joe Biden rematch in this year’s presidential election. US leader Joe Biden is the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party after his victory overnight in the Georgia primary pushed him passed the threshold of 1,968 delegates. Donald Trump also passed the threshold of 1,215 delegates to become the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party, following his triumphs in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington. Biden’s approval rating is lagging behind Trump’s at the same stage of his presidency ‘It is my great honour to be representing the Republican Party as its Presidential Nominee,’ Trump wrote on Truth Social. ‘Fear not, we will not

Tuesday

Robin Ashenden

Navalny’s death has left Russia’s opposition in despair

Following the wave of articles that have appeared in the Western press since Navalny’s death come three pieces from émigré Russians. All present a sobering and even chilling picture of Russia’s future now that its leading figure of opposition is gone. The first, published by the Russian-language Meduza on 4 March, was by Shura Burtin, a Russian journalist living in Prague. In his essay, ‘The world doesn’t know how to stand up to evil’, Burtin described his devastation at the news of Navalny’s death: ‘Only in the wake of Navalny’s murder did it become clear how unconsciously we still lived in hope for a “normal” future.’ The dream of a

Monday

Jonathan Miller Jonathan Miller

Macron has spied an easy win with his assisted dying Bill

Emmanuel Macron was predictably theatrical when he introduced his Bill on the end of life yesterday. In the proposed legislation, medical staff would be authorised to help their patients to die – which Macron described as a law of ‘fraternity’. He pronounced: ‘With this text, we look death in the face.’ A guaranteed headline in the Catholic daily La Croix. The President has often favoured dark suits and I have previously described him as having a funereal mien. But he was positively bouncy extolling the Bill, which will be debated by the National Assembly this spring. Macron is swimming with the tide of popular opinion He chose to kick off the

Limor Simhony Philpott

Why a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely

Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results. Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to Israeli negotiators; Israel has been warning for weeks that Hamas is set to reject a deal while attempting to provoke violent clashes between Palestinians and Arab-Israelis, and Israeli security

Robert Hardman

Can the King save the Commonwealth?

When the King makes his first public address since his cancer diagnosis today, the occasion could not be more fitting. The monarch will address, via video, a full house at Westminster Abbey’s multi-faith Commonwealth service. No one knows the Commonwealth as well as Charles III. He grew up around its founding fathers. As Prince of Wales, his credentials – not least as an environmentalist – were such that the Commonwealth summit unanimously endorsed him as future head in 2018. But 2024, which marks the 75th anniversary of the Commonwealth, will be a challenging year for the organisation – and the King’s diplomatic skills will be vital if it is to

Sunday

John Keiger John Keiger

Why is Macron suddenly pro-Ukraine? Fear of Le Pen

Its an old ruse to deploy foreign policy for domestic purposes. France has a long history in that vein. General de Gaulle was adept at using popular domestic anti-Americanism on the world stage to embarrass pro-Nato political forces at home; François Mitterrand exploited the early 1980s Euromissile crisis with the Soviet Union to humiliate and isolate the French Communist party. Emmanuel Macron’s startling declaration that the West should not rule out putting troops on the ground in Ukraine is less a Damascene conversion than a strategy to stymy the Rassemblement National’s runaway 10 point poll lead for June’s EU elections. Macron has doubled down on his new-found international bellicosity by

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

Irish voters have refused to erase the family

It’s not been a particularly good weekend for the political establishment in Ireland. Two constitutional changes have been rejected by the electorate, despite being backed by all the mainstream parties – Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, Greens, Sinn Fein – plus the usual pundits and something called the National Women’s Council (a quango which is meant to represent women but somehow doesn’t). The state broadcaster, RTE, which finds itself in a similar position to the BBC after the Brexit vote, is curiously subdued about the outcome. Nearly 70 per cent of Irish women with children under 18 would stay at home with them Voters were given the option to, as

Monica Porter

The remarkable story of my mother, the heroine of the Holocaust

I’ve always loathed Russia: its regime, its remnants of enduring Stalin-worship, its rulers’ century of malign influence on the world. The cold-blooded autocrat Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine is all too redolent of the USSR, is succeeding in his aim of shattering the security and stability of Europe. I watch clips of Putin addressing vast cheering crowds in Moscow and wonder: what’s wrong with these otherwise sophisticated people? The alternative narratives are mere clicks away on their smartphones, yet they choose to swallow Putin’s dangerous lies and propaganda. Have they learnt nothing from their own history? With the secret police prowling the streets, she needed to deflect suspicion My

Saturday

Katja Hoyer Katja Hoyer

How Germany became a security liability

There were lots of smiles and some awkward football banter when German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock met her British counterpart David Cameron in Berlin earlier this week. Cameron was careful to tiptoe around Berlin’s recent security blunders, after an online call between German officials discussing British military activities in Ukraine was intercepted by Russia. Alliances aren’t just about money, they are also about trust and dependability Britain’s former prime minister is good at this diplomatic dance, and he made a valiant effort to not, in his words, ‘play into the hands of some Russian narrative about divisions between allies.’ But it’s hard to paper over the cracks these recent security

Robin Ashenden

Lost friendships are a painful price of the Ukraine war

One thing you learn about war, if you are close enough for it to touch you, is that it splits the atom. Situations and relationships that have grown over time and seem to have deep roots – a life in fact – can be blown apart in a day. Now, over two years on from the start of Vladimir Putin’s ‘special military operation’ (which came at a time when I was living in Rostov-on-Don, an hour or two from the Ukrainian border), I’m still in touch with several Russians I knew back then. We find common ground, avoid certain topics and continue the conversation. But other friendships were killed stone dead,

John Foreman

Russia will not attack Nato

There is a lot of war fever about. In January, Grant Shapps, Britain’s tiggerish defence secretary, said the UK was in a ‘pre-war’ period. The West’s adversaries in China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are mobilising, he said. Not wanting to be outdone, Shapps’s Labour shadow John Healey wrote in the Daily Telegraph: ‘If Putin wins, he will not stop at Ukraine.’ Timescales for when this conflict will come vary. Shapps said it could come within the next five years, whereas the estimates of European politicians range from three to eight years. Nato’s top military official warned that Europeans must be ready for a conflict with Russia within two decades. An