World

Tuesday

Senay Boztas

Why didn’t Geert Wilders do as well as Marine Le Pen?

‘We are really by far the biggest winner this evening,’ said Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), when the European election exit polls were published last week. But although the Netherlands was first to go to the polls – with strong indications that the far right would be victorious – his ‘win’ fell short of the storming result of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which has sparked a political earthquake in France. Wilders, an anti-Islam, anti-immigration politician, surprised everyone in the country, including himself, when his PVV became the largest political party in the Netherlands in November. A man who has lived with 24/7 security for two decades is currently putting together a

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

How France’s shy Le Pen voters caused a political earthquake

Emmanuel Macron visited Oradour-sur-Glane on Monday to mark the 80th anniversary since the village in central France was liquidated by SS troops. Laying a wreath at the site where 643 Frenchmen, women and children were massacred, the president of the Republic declared that: ‘We will remember Oradour, always, so that history never starts again’. That was a veiled reference to the success of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which crushed the opposition in Sunday’s European elections. In 96 of France’s 101 Departments, the National Rally – led by Jordan Bardella – came out top, and their triumph in France’s towns and villages was overwhelming. Villages such as the rebuilt Oradour sur

Daniel Rey

Trump is forcing Biden to the right

Joe Biden is a pragmatist. With just five months to go until his rematch against Donald Trump, the veteran Democrat is making political decisions based on an electoral calculation. These decisions, intended to undermine Trump’s appeal among wavering voters, cross into economic, domestic and foreign policy. They are taking him closer to the views of his Republican opponent. A case in point is immigration – one of Trump’s electoral strengths, and one of Biden’s biggest weaknesses. Biden, who is lagging behind Trump in the polls, has just signed an executive order denying asylum to migrants who enter the United States illegally. Michigan has become a major problem for Biden Immigration

Terry Barnes

Australia’s Covid honours farce

Whatever one thinks of all that happened in the Covid years, and how the experience scarified so many and even compelled us to question the solidity of democratic institutions and values throughout the West, most of us simply want to forget. The Covid time is like a relationship gone bad: it’s easier to cope by burying it it and moving on. In Australia this week, however, unpleasant reminders of the dark Covid time resurfaced in an unexpected place: the national King’s Birthday honours list. What a face-slapping insult Andrews’s gong is to Victorians Since dispensing with imperial honours several decades ago, the highest civilian honour here is to be appointed

Dalibor Rohac

The EU election spells trouble for Ukraine

If one story dominates the cacophony of results of the European election from across the 27 countries of the Union, it is the defeat of incumbents in the EU’s largest member states: France and Germany. While their underperformance was expected, its aftershocks risk leaving Europe weak and ineffectual in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.  It is hard to see how Macron or Scholz will become bolder in their Ukrainian positions in the coming months In France, president Emmanuel Macron responded to the poor performance of his party, Renaissance, by calling a snap election for 30 June – less than two weeks before Nato’s summit in Washington.  The logic

Monday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

How would Britain’s Labour party change UK-China relations?

34 min listen

In less than a month’s time, Britain may well have a new prime minister – and a different ruling party. Under 14 years of the Conservative party, the UK’s approach to China has swung from the sycophancy of the golden era to fear and loathing under Liz Truss, stabilising in the last couple of years to a compete but engage approach, all while public opinion on China has hardened following the Hong Kong protests and the pandemic. What will a new government bring? Will the managerialism of Keir Starmer change UK-China relations much from the managerialism of Rishi Sunak? This is not a hypothetical question as Labour looks set to

Mark Nayler

The establishment triumphed in Spain’s elections

Spain’s Conservative Popular party (PP) came first in Sunday’s EU elections, upping its share of seats in the European parliament from 13 to 22 – with 34 per cent of the vote. The Socialists (PSOE), represented by energy minister Teresa Ribera, avoided the drubbing many had predicted, coming second with 20 seats.   Between them, the PP and PSOE have won enough seats to dominate smaller parties for the duration of this EU parliament A large gap separates these two frontrunners from smaller left- and right-wing groups, Catalan separatists and a curious new addition to Spain’s political scene. These parties secured between two and six seats in the new EU legislature. The

John Keiger John Keiger

The EU may struggle to find its way out of this election crisis

It is said that the EU thrives on crises. These are what spurs it on to the ultimate goal of wider and deeper integration. But yesterday’s European election results may be a crisis too far. Unlike its predecessors, this election has returned nine or so large Eurosceptic national parties intent on arresting the march towards ever-closer union. The nationalist and identitarian right, while by no means a majority in the new European parliament, is in a commanding position to seriously influence the EU’s future direction. According to the Bertelsmann Foundation’s European expert, quoted in Le Monde, the EU is entering ‘its most decisive phase in its 70 year history’. In the

Ian O’Doherty

Sinn Fein’s immigration stance has blown up in its face

It’s been three days since Ireland went to the ballot box to decide the local and European elections and, much to consternation of pretty much everyone, we’re still waiting for the final results. The exit polls though show a remarkable collapse in support for Sinn Fein. Mary Lou McDonald’s attempts to become respectable with the overwhelmingly liberal and middle-class Dublin mediocracy quite simply blew up in her face This has been a rancorous and remarkably bad-tempered campaign. The rise in popularity in the polls of supposedly anti-immigrant parties such as Irish Freedom and Ireland First (neither of which even existed when we had the last local, European and general elections)

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The truth about the rise of the ‘far right’ in Europe

‘The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation but also for Europe,’ said Emmanuel Macron as he announced his general election. Strong talk, as befits his newly-called general election campaign but is that really what has just happened? Look closely and the results are more nuanced – and more interesting.  If anything, we can see the taming of some populist shrews. In France, Le Pen’s National Rally hit 30 per cent only after her long attempt to detoxify, mellowing her agenda and, recently, kicking the AfD out of her European Parliament grouping. The fresh-faced Jordan Bardella, 28, was the face of Le Pen’s Euro campaign. Macron’s snap election is perhaps intended

Matthew Lynn

France can’t afford a Le Pen government

It is possible that President Macon had some clever plan when he called a general election in the wake of catastrophic European election results last night. After all, he has a reputation for always being several moves ahead on the political chessboard. And yet one point is surely clear. France can’t afford a Le Pen government – and its election may well trigger a crisis in the French debt markets.  Le Pen, after all, is a high welfare, big state, economic nationalist It is, perhaps, not quite such a foregone result as Britain’s election a few days earlier. And yet after the second round of voting on 7 July, it looks

Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

Olaf Scholz’s party suffers worst EU election defeat as AfD surges

The mood in Olaf Scholz’s SPD party headquarters in Berlin is despondent this morning. The German Chancellor’s party won just 13.9 per cent in the European elections – placing them third in the country and a full two percentage points behind the far-right AfD party. The SPD hasn’t done this badly in a national vote since 1949 – and the result comes less than 18 months until Germany holds its federal election. SPD Leader Lars Klingbeil called it a ‘bitter defeat’. ‘There is no way to sugarcoat it,’ he said. ‘I think it is crystal clear that things have to change.’ The SPD hasn’t done this badly in a national

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

French voters have delivered a damning verdict on Macron

I sensed something significant was going to unfold on Sunday as I took my morning coffee at our village café. Enjoying the June sunshine I watched as a steady stream of men and women walked past on their way to the voting booth in the village hall. Forty-eight per cent of them cast their ballot for Jordan Bardella of the National Rally. The next best was Valerie Hayer, representing president Macron’s party; she managed 12 per cent. The people chose Macron, and got chaos The voter turnout in my village in Burgundy was 60 per cent, an eight per cent increase on the 2019 elections and 17 per cent superior

Limor Simhony Philpott

Gantz’s resignation from Israel’s war cabinet spells trouble for Netanyahu

Benny Gantz, leader of the Israeli Resilience party and a member of the war cabinet, has resigned from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Gantz, a moderate who joined the cabinet days into the war against Hamas, has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the prime minister over a lack of a plan for Gaza. Gantz positioned himself as a ‘patriot’, in contrast to Netanyahu, whom he accused of operating based on narrow political interests ‘Netanyahu is preventing us from progressing towards a true victory,’ Gantz said in a TV address on Sunday night. ‘For this reason we are leaving the emergency government today, with a heavy heart, yet wholeheartedly.’ Gantz also called on

John Keiger John Keiger

Macron is trying to scare French voters into rejecting Le Pen’s party

The French presidential list score in the European elections ‘is not a good result for the parties which defend Europe’. So declared president Macron euphemistically on television last night to the French nation, as he called a snap election to be held on 30 June and 7 July. Official results published this morning show the Rassemblement National (RN) has romped home on 31.47 per cent. Macron’s party is in a lamentable second place on 14.56 per cent (way behind its 22.4 per cent in 2019) and very closely tailed by the moderate socialist Raphaël Glucksmann on 13.8 per cent. These European election results are a severe personal defeat for Macron

Sunday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

The European elections and the ascent of the right

Can the ‘far right’ still really be called the ‘far right’ if it becomes the mainstream? That’s a question for political scientists to ponder as tonight’s European elections results come tumbling in. The right is winning in France, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally will win twice as many votes as president Macron’s Renaissance. Macron has already responded to the humiliation by calling for fresh national assembly elections to be held on 30 June and 7 July. The EU may well have to adapt to the worldview of Marine Le Pen In Germany, the AfD, despite a number of scandals, took 16 per cent of the vote, making them the

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Macron’s snap election is his biggest gamble yet

Emmanuel Macron tonight dissolved France’s National Assembly and announced there will be new parliamentary elections with the first round of voting on 30 June and the second round a week later. The president made an unscheduled appearance on television one hour after exit polls declared a crushing victory for the National Rally in the European elections. Marine Le Pen’s party, whose election campaign was run by the 28-year-old president Jordan Bardella, is predicted a score of between 32 and 33.3 per cent, more than twice that of Macron’s representative, Valerie Hayer. She trailed a distant second on a projected 15 per cent, just ahead of the Socialist Raphaël Glucksmann. The

Alexander Kolyandr

How Putin plans to fund a forever war in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s costly war in Ukraine has transformed Russia as the president has forced the country to pivot onto a war footing to support it. Now, going a step further, Russia is embarking on a significant tax regime overhaul, a move that hasn’t been seen in almost a quarter of a century. The tax shake-up will allow the Kremlin to further prioritise military spending as it attempts to keep its invasion going. In the early years of Putin’s rule, Russia sought to attract a lot of foreign investment, boost the number of small and medium-sized businesses, grow the middle class and encourage them to spend. As a result, in the 2000s, private investments

Billi Bierling

The hardest part of climbing Mount Everest isn’t what you think

Everest is, we’re told, ‘the highest garbage dump in the world’. It’s a place, if you believe the reports from this year’s climbing season, that is increasingly crowded. Terrifying video footage released last month showed climbers waiting their turn at the very top of the mountain shortly before two of them fell to their death. What’s the appeal? The Sherpas are no longer the unsung heroes For nearly two decades I’ve lived in Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal. I spend my time here gallivanting around the high Himalayas. Having made it to the top of Everest, it’s clear to me that the reason so many people want to climb the

Saturday

Michael Evans

Why Biden’s Gaza ceasefire proposal failed

Ceasefire deals to end the war in Gaza have come and gone. President Biden’s unexpected announcement of the latest formula for a settlement, supposedly proposed by Israel, has already fallen by the wayside. In fact, Biden’s three-stage ceasefire deal looked remarkably like the previous ones: a six-week halt to fighting and withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas, with a release of some hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners; a negotiated Israel/Hamas settlement for a permanent end to the war; and finally, comprehensive reconstruction of Gaza. However, Israel’s attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the growing hostility around the world towards Benjamin Netanyahu’s grim determination to