World

Iran’s turn

Revolutions are exciting when they happen to other leaders. When they target the government you lead, then they become decidedly less appealing. That seems to be Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s view. Only last week the Iranian President told the Egyptian protesters that they had the right to express their own opinions. The Iranian regime’s short-sighted glee, however, has quickly turned to fear. And it shows: the regime has unleashed the police onto protesting crowds in Iran, killing one and wounding several. Unlike Hosni Mubarak, Iran’s leaders know what it is like to be a revolutionary movement – and they have used their inside knowledge to lethal effect. Like Lenin and Stalin, they

Aid to India to be replaced with pro-growth help

How to manage Britain’s aid to India? The fast-rising country has a space programme, costing nearly the same as Britain gives in annual aid. To many people, that is reason enough to cut all aid. Yet, at the same time, India is one of the world’s poorest countries. 456 million people live on less than $1.25 per day. Annual income per person is only $1,180, compared to $3,650 in China and $41,370 in the UK. That means there are 20 percent more poor people in India than in sub-Saharan Africa. But India receives only $1.50 in aid per person, compared to $28 for Sub-Saharan Africa. A good example of India’s

China eclipses the Japanese economic miracle

Official figures suggest that China has replaced Japan as the world’s second largest economy, after an estimated 10 percent growth rate left China with an economy worth close to $5.8trillion at the end of quarter four 2010. Japanese growth hovered around the 3 percent mark in 2010 with a total GDP value of $5.47 trillion. Analysts have told the BBC that it is ‘realistic’ that China will overhaul the US’ economy in about a decade, which, as Pete has demonstrated, does not look too outrageous a suggestion.  All of this puts me in mind of the European Union. The CIA World Factbook records that the EU leads the globe in

Developments in the Middle East are beginning to affect Europe

After yesterday’s spontaneous clean-up operation on the streets of Cairo, protestors gathered at Freedom Square today to maintain the revolution’s momentum. There have been minor developments, with the army and its interim civilian administration dissolving President Mubarak’s gerrymandered parliament, preparing the way for an election in the future. The timetable for that election remains a mystery – something about which the international community, led by President Obama and assorted European leaders, is questioning without yet expressing concern. Both Britain and the United States, together with the European Union have again reiterated their support for democracy in Egypt, whilst maintaining that the Egyptian military’s conduct has been exemplary so far. Meanwhile, protests and

Fraser Nelson

A massive failure of communication

I have farmer friends in the Highlands who are forbidden from felling trees in their own backgarden – and, ergo, can’t extent their house. The poor souls have to wait until there’s a windstorm and head out with their chainsaws at 3am to fake the death of trees – and, even then, it’s touch-and-go if they are later caught by the tree coroners. The regulation of privately-owned trees is extraordinary, which is why the fuss about forests – and yesterday’s climbdown – is such a farce. The government’s decision to postpone the selloff of the treeland estate that it proposed fits a pattern of u-Turns that I wrote about last

Fraser Nelson

And more from the world’s press on Egypt

Here are a few more pieces from around the world on the Egyptian revolution and its aftermath. Andrew Neil: More about the Muslim Brotherhood. Charles Krauthammer says a freedom plan is not enough, America needs a freedom doctrine. Foreign Affairs: Who are rest of the Egyptian opposition? Bikyamasr: Israel’s take on Egypt’s new army government. The Middle Eastern Media Research Unit reacts critically to Obama’s intervention. Washington Post: A power vacuum in the Middle East. The Diplomat: Echoes of Cairo In Tehran. Silk Road Economy: What drought in China means for politics in Egypt. PS: If any CoffeeHousers see other pieces worth noting, do please link to them.

A new dawn for Dubya?

Who is the unsung hero of the Egyptian revolution? Why, the 43rd President of the United States of course. (And, presumably, Tony Blair as well.) Reuel Marc Gerecht leapt to praise Bush in the pages of The New York Times. ‘President George W. Bush’s decision to build democracy in Iraq seemed so lame to many people because it appeared, at best, to be another example of American idealism run amok — the forceful implantation of a complex Western idea into infertile authoritarian soil. But Mr. Bush, whose faith in self-government mirrors that of a frontiersman in Tocqueville’s “Democracy in America,” saw truths that more worldly men missed: the idea of

James Forsyth

A region in flux

The kaleidoscope has been shaken in the Middle East and it is impossible to know where the pieces will settle. Watching the scenes, one’s inclination is to be hopeful. But as Jeffrey Goldberg notes the challenges facing any new Egyptian order are immense. One thing that is clear is that the autocrats of the Arab world are nervous. The Washington Post reports that the king of Bahrain is giving every family there $2,700 in an attempt to appease opinion before a planned day of protest on Monday. The Algerian government is offering to lift the state of emergency the country has been in for the past 19 years and the

INVESTMENT SPECIAL: Passports to China

One of the remarkable statistics to emerge from the euroland crisis is the scale of UK trade with the Irish Republic. Export traffic across the Irish Sea amounts to 7 per cent of the total: more than all our trade with the fast growing ‘BRIC’ economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China. The consequence is that UK plc looks to be missing out on the high-growth emerging markets which are forecast to power a 4.5 per cent expansion of the global economy in 2011. The coalition has sought to plug this gap with high-profile trade missions such as last year’s excursion to China led by David Cameron. The reality is,

Hong Kong Notebook

I have an aunt who is a 90-year-old Chinese Catholic nun. Until last year she was confined to a wheelchair, badly arthritic, and totally blind, but then a miraculous operation gave her back sight in one eye. Last week, to celebrate the Chinese New Year, she bravely travelled from her home in Wicklow to Hong Kong — which she left 20 years ago and thought she would never see again. Her visit was a surprise for her sister, my 83-year-old mother, and so our traditional family dinner on New Year’s eve was an emotional affair. Together we had four generations’ worth of memories of Hong Kong — a city that

Mubarak stands down

Finally, Mubarak has gone. Time will tell what undid last night’s defiance, but the armed forces have taken provisional control of the country, along with the head of the Supreme Court and the speaker of the Parliament. Omar Suleiman, Mubarak’s Vice President, has been frozen out for the moment. In this moment of the protests’ triumph, it’s worth recalling Daniel Korski’s point that: ‘It is not clear if Egypt’s protests can morph into a responsible movement for change.’  Both the security of the country and the region rest upon that question.            

Spelman’s a-turning

The BBC reports that the government has dropped some of its plans to privatise forestry. The general scheme will proceed, but the sale of 15 percent of publicly owned forests will be stalled while the government re-examines the criteria for sale. Obviously this is a set back, but far from a terminal one. The forestry consultation document contains some very sensible ideas. There is no reason for commercial forestry to remain in public ownership. The Forestry Commission loses money and its predominantly coniferous crop and wasting agricultural land wrecks the environment and damages wildlife habitats. Privatisation would not lead to the spoliation of the shires. The document promised to increase

Fraser Nelson

It’s China’s world. We just live in it.

Yesterday was momentous, but we should not lose sight of the head of the IMF saying that the Chinese renminbi could take steps to becoming a global reserve currency. To be specific: Dominique Strauss-Kahn has in mind adding renminbi to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights system. In itself, no big deal – but a notable kiss being blown to Beijing. It fits a trend. The Chinese, notoriously, manipulate the value of their currency to keep their goods cheap, so they can’t have their currency treated with reserve status. But power is shifting – and America’s fiscal misbehaviour has unsettled international investors. John Peace, chairman of UK bank Standard Chartered, put

Alex Massie

Obama to Mubarak: Your Time Is Up

The Americans have made their move and it’s not good news for Hosni Mubarak’s friends and defenders. This is the statement released by President Obama tonight: The Egyptian people have been told that there was a transition of authority, but it is not yet clear that this transition is immediate, meaningful or sufficient. Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy, and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world. The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity.

Alex Massie

17 Days That Shook the World

The extraordinary scenes in Cairo today should not blind us to the fact that Hosni Mubarak’s apparent departure is not the beginning of the end but merely the end of the beginning. The army may have assured the protestors – whose gallantry, courage and peaceful presence on the streets of Egypt’s cities has been as startling as it has been wondrous – that their demands will be met but those demands cannot be satisfied just by Hosni Mubarak’s departure. It’s not just personal, you might say, it’s business too. And that business is real and verifiable reform. Like Brother Korski I remain optimistic that momentum now lies with the reform

Egypt becomes freer

The world does really end with a whimper, not a bang, as T.S. Eliot said. After 31 years in power, seventeen days of protests, more than 300 dead and a shouting match between the US administration and its one-time Egyptian ally, it looks as if Hosni Mubarak will be leaving office tonight. Twitter is atwitter with news that the Egyptian strongman will soon make a TV appearance during which he is expected to hand power to newly-anointed Vice-President Omar Suleiman. Expect Tahrir Square to erupt in a festival of freedom, as the heroic, web-enabled protesters savour their unlikely but amazing victory. But while Egypt’s revolution has been more successful than

A legion of attacks

Some attacks hurt more than others. And the attack launched by Chris Simpkins, the director-general of the Royal British Legion, on the government’s approach to the military covenant will be particularly painful. For it comes after a Defence Review that left few happy, and when the nation is engaged in a war from which many feel the Prime Minister is a bit too keen to withdraw. Speaking to The Times, the Royal Legion chief said plans set out in the Armed Forces Bill requiring the Ministry of Defence to publish an annual report on the unwritten pact between society and the military were not the same as writing it into

Hague joins Middle East protests…well, as good as

Foreign Secretary William Hague has arrived in Tunisia in order to support to the pro-democracy movement. Unlike his previous visit to Syria, which I think was poorly timed, this one is perfectly-timed. It could even end up looking like George Bush Snr’s visit to Poland in July 1989 when the US president publicly backed the revolutions sweeping across the European continent at the time and gave succour to the pro-democracy movements. Visits like this are so important to help the direction of travel. What people forget now is that in the Eastern Europe of 1989, the history of democracy was as limited as it is today in the Middle East.

Alex Massie

Hope on the Nile: Islam Does Not Have All the Answers

Not to grant him guru status or anything but I’m glad that Reuel Marc Gerecht has at last weighed-in on the Egypt Question. I’ve mentioned his writing before and think him one of the most interesting, and in some ways provocative, middle-east analysts. Even if you disagree with him, his ideas are worth serious consideration. His view that President Obama could usefully say “We are not scared of muslims voting” seems persuasive to me. So too his conclusion that it is time to “put an end to the West’s deleterious habit of treating the Middle East’s potentates respectfully and the Muslim citizenry like children.” He writes: Mr. Bush’s distastefulness helped