World

Freddy Gray

Hillary the hawk

Intervention it is then. Cue lots of politicians walking around with rousing West Wing music in their minds’ ears. This is the part where they get to play the good guys. Until something goes wrong, and they are bungling idiots again. Of course, it’s good for everyone to feel that a bombing campaign in Libya is a multi-lateral, UN decision – not an Iraq. But if this turns into a long campaign, American airpower will be expected to do the vast majority of the work. And while Obama may be reluctant to engage on a third front, there are plenty of enthusiasts in Washington – none more so than Hillary

Alex Massie

In Defence of Germany

Among the many odd things about the Libyan “debate” is the argument that Germany’s decision to abstain during the Security Council vote is somehow disgraceful and proof that Germany still isn’t ready to play its part on the international stage. (Obviously some of these objections come from the kind of rightists who fear or dislike German influence in other, more peaceful, areas of international politics and business. But never mind.) But Germany’s vote seems qualitatively different from the BRIC-blog of abstentions. Brazil, India, China and Russia each have reasons to be wary of this kind of resolution and, indeed, this kind of precedent. Deep down, I suspect some of them

Learning from recent history

With a UN resolution now passed, Prime Minister David Cameron has displayed diplomatic skills his critics believed he did not possess. As NATO is planning to enforce an expansive no-fly zone over Libya, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider such a mission’s aims and to learn the lessons from recent wars. The strategic aim of the mission cannot only be to protect Libyan civilians. Framed in this way, the international community will face the same problems it did Bosnia: for instance, the Srebrenica massacre happened while a no-fly zone was already in place. A no-fly zone will not force Colonel Ghadaffi from power. As troops are not

Alex Massie

A Leap into the Libyan Unknown

So we’re going to war again. This may be David Cameron’s first conflict but it’s the seventh time in just 21 years that a British Prime Minister has committed Her Majesty’s forces to military action. Are we doing the right thing? I don’t know and I’m mildly suspicious of those who seem too certain about anything Libyan right now, rehardless of which side of the argument their certainties lie. Now that it is beginning, however, let it at least be done properly and let us hope that, somehow or other, Gaddafi capitulates. But if he does not do not be fooled into thinking that this will be over soon. Like

The UN decides to take “all necessary measures” against Gaddafi

“There will be no mercy. Our troops will be coming to Benghazi tonight.” Perhaps it was the murderous threat contained within Gaddafi’s latest radio message that shocked the United Nations into action today — because shocked into action they have been. After sweating and toiling over the precise formulation of a resolution on Libya, the UN Security Council finally reached the voting stage this evening. And it has now voted 10-0 in favour of member states taking “all necessary measures … to protect civilian and populated areas, including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force.” Brazil, India, China, Russia and — staggeringly — Germany all abstained. What this means, in practice,

Time to bury the hatchet?

Who says irony is dead? The Four Barrow Hunt and the Countryside Alliance are holding a fundraising auction in April. The lots are largely predictable: a subscription to the Telegraph, a French holiday home and a cured fox pelt. More surprising is the signed copy of Tony Blair’s A Journey, with its comparatively brief account of the 700 hours of parliamentary time he devoted to banning fox hunting. What, you may ask, would the good folk of the Four Barrow want with that memoir? Time to bury the hatchet? Perhaps. But, equally, Blackadder’s assessment of the magazine ‘King and Country’ is recalled: ‘Ah, yes, without question my favourite magazine; soft,

Alex Massie

A Grim St Patrick’s Day

St Patrick’s Day is often pretty grim, not least on account of the American habit of suggesting the poor old boy is actually the patron saint of uncooked hamburgers. It is St Patrick’s Day or Paddy’s Day and “Patty’s Day” is an abomination. True, the pubs tend to be stuffed with insufferable amateurs today but in general Ireland is a decent place to pass St Patrick’s Day and a better one than most. At least there are proper Irish people there. But this is not an especially bonny St Patrick’s Day and not even a new government that can scarcely fail to be some modest improvement upon its predecessor can

Alex Massie

A Realist Straw in the Republican Wind?

With all the attention on Libya and the rest of the middle east at present, it’s easy to forget (again) about Afghanistan. so I think Ben Smith is right to argue that Haley Barbour’s call to bring American troops home from the Hindu Kush is interesting and, possibly, telling. Barbour, the Boss Hogg governor of Mississippi, remains a long-shot for the GOP Presidential nomination but he’s not someone noted for policy boldness or imagination. True, his ideal timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan may not differ from the platonic ideal of withdrawal imagined by the Obama administration; that’s not the important thing here. What matters – though this is but a

Fraser Nelson

More woe for the FCO

The Japanese tsunami is exposing the shortcomings of the Foreign Office. Embarrassingly, a team of British rescuers has been thwarted because the British embassay in Tokyo failed to process the right paperwork – so they are now flying back home. The words of Willie McMartin, head of the Grangemouth-based outfit, speak best for themselves: ‘The team has had excellent help from the Japanese embassy in London and the authorities in Tokyo but it broke down when they couldn’t get the relevant paperwork from the British embassy in Tokyo. This was the 32nd world disaster we have been to and we’ve only had problems twice before with host governments in China

James Forsyth

Gaddafi’s coming victory is a huge strategic setback for the West

It now seems almost certain that Colonel Gaddafi will now not only survive in Libya but reassert control over the whole country. With the fall of Ajdabiya, there is no break between Gaddafi’s forces and the rebel capital of Benghazi. The window for international action is shutting rapidly, even if it has not yet closed. But, as so often, there seems to be no multilateral desire for action. Gaddafi’s triumph is a disaster for the Libyan people but also one of the biggest strategic set-backs the West has suffered in the post 9/11 world. Every dictator will now know that they can suppress a revolt with violence without fear of

Meltdown danger

The situation in Japan is deteriorating further. In the early hours of this morning, the last workers are said to have left the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant as the danger of a nuclear meltdown grew. There have been explosions in three of the plant’s reactors and a fourth one is on fire. Everyone within a 30 kilometre radius has been told to stay indoors, and the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, stationed more than 100 miles away to help earthquake victims, sailed farther away from the stricken plant after detecting unusual levels of radioactivity in the air. The Japanese Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, has confirmed that, “substantial amounts of radiation

Alex Massie

When the Sea Invades

Plenty of folk have posted this video of the Japanese tsunami but if you haven’t seen it yet then check it out. It’s not gruesome but it is extraordinary and, to use the word properly for once, awesome. Make sure you watch right to the end. UPDATE: Ooops. Should be the right link now.

Rod Liddle

Nuclear alert

I hope the Japanese authorities are telling the truth about the nuclear reactor building which exploded as a consequence of the earthquake. We are told that while the outer shell at the Fukushima plant did indeed explode (as seen on YouTube), the inner core, within its steel cradle, remained apparently unimpaired. In which case, why exactly did the outer shell explode? What caused it to do so? I ask not rhetorically, but out of interest. And also suspicion. They have been as secretive, the Japs, as were the Soviets when Chernobyl blew up and the first we knew of it was from a Norwegian meteorological team. Incidentally, I’m in favour

The Arab League adds its weight to the calls for a no-fly zone

We’re pushing for a no-fly zone. France is pushing for a no-fly zone. And now the Arab League is pushing for a no-fly zone too. The news fresh out of Cairo is that the organisation has voted in favour of restricting airspace above Libya. It will now push the UN to do the same, which is a considerably more proactive than the stance it adopted earlier this week. While one vote doesn’t really seal anything, this is potentially a crucial moment. NATO has made regional support a key condition of a no-fly zone – and now it has it, officially. Those who have been sniffing around for alternatives to the

China steps into the breach

Singapore China has lost little time pledging rescue help and aid to Japan, even though it is burying its own dead from the earthquake that shook Yunnan on Thursday. Beijing is keenly aware the world is watching it like never before – so its leaders are keen to make all the right noises. But dig deeper, and the reaction is more ambivalent, especially amongst ordinary Chinese, many of whom seem to have mixed feelings about Japan’s disaster. On sites such as Sina Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, some microbloggers have been snide – and some downright sadistic. (The Wall St Journal blog translates some here). It’s a reminder that Sino-Japanese

What the Libya crisis means long-term

The multiple crises in North Africa, from the revolution in Tunisia, through the protests in Egypt and to the conflict in Libya, has reinvigorated British foreign policy. In the last couple of years classic international issues have been pushed to the side by a need to focus on economic statecraft. Foreign ministers became less important as finance ministers gained prominence. This will now change, as leaders shift their focus onto the Libya crisis. The UN is again in focus, not the G20. The second change may be on East/West dynamics. Before the crisis, the air was thick with talk of a multipolar world and how power was flowing roughly from

Freddy Gray

Is Sudan next?

The momentum behind the Arab Spring revolutions appears to have been checked – for now. The Libyan domino hasn’t fallen. But there’s more unrest to come in North Africa. On March 21, a group called Youth for Change will hold mass protests throughout Sudan. Youth for Change (sinister name) are inspired, obviously, by what has happened in Egypt and Tunisia. Their aim, they say, is to ‘to rewrite the constitution with the voice of the people in order to hold national general elections: ‘[We march] to reclaim our dignity as human beings first and second as Sudanese …that has been violated by the regime when it killed thousands of our

Disaster in Japan

Graphs and tables cannot ever convey the full tragedy of the situation in Japan, but the one above captures an important fact: that today’s earthquake is historic in size. At 8.9 magnitude, this Japanese disaster is the 7th largest on the US Geological Survey’s books. Because it struck on the seabed, its destructive energy is distilled into the tsunami that is now sweeping across the island. What happens next is uncertain and could potentially worsen the catastrophe. A grim chorus of warning sirens is sounding from the coastlines of the Pacific, as everywhere from the Philippines to the west coast of America readies itself against the swells that may or

Alex Massie

Votes for Ex-Prisoners? Florida will be having none of that.

I think it perfectly reasonable for the state to deny prisoners the right to vote and that losing the franchise is one of the consequences of incarceration. But as far as I know no-one in this country has suggested denying ex-prisoners their voting rights. They do things differently in the United States. Over to Roger Clegg* at National Review: Florida governor Rick Scott and his cabinet have ended the policy of his predecessor, Charlie Crist, of automatically reenfranchising felons upon their release from prison. The ACLU et al. are outraged, but it’s the right decision: Those who have demonstrated that they won’t follow the law shouldn’t be allowed automatically to

Alex Massie

Mitt Romney and Roderick Spode

As you all know, one may be a designer of ladies’ underwear or a great dictator. But not both. Similarly, one may have passed a healthcare reform that’s a mini-version of Obamacare or one may become the Republican party’s next presidential nominee. But not both.  That, at least, is held to be Mitt Romney’s awful predicment and it’s making him do some very strange things to compensate for this dreadful weakness. Politics can be cruel: Mitt’s greatest strength was once his technocratic, problem-solving approach. His Massachusetts healthcare reforms were a Good Thing, not a betrayal of conservative first principles. Changed days. Matt Yglesias makes the good point that Scott Brown’s