World

Thursday

Charlie Gammell

War in Lebanon could end up creating Isis 3.0

As Israeli troops make incursions into southern Lebanon, in the wake of recent successful aerial and covert campaigns against Hezbollah, Tel Aviv appears ascendant. Iran, by contrast, seems on the back foot, at odds with its proxies and divided internally as to the way forward.  Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strikes, and the West’s ability to check Israel’s actions to prevent all-out war, will determine how the next 48 hours pan out. Iran has strongly signalled that it is relying on the US to curb Israel’s response to its missile strikes last night, a statement that carried with it a whiff of desperation.  Israel still can’t answer the crucial question that has hovered over this entire conflict: how does it

Sean Rayment

These won’t be the last casualties Israel sustains in Lebanon

Israel has sustained its first casualties since the launch of its cross-border incursion into southern Lebanon. Eight soldiers have been killed in battles with Hezbollah and, tragically, they are unlikely to be the last casualties of this conflict.  Captain Eitan Itzhak Oster, 22, a squad commander in the ‘Egoz’, an elite commando unit specialising in guerrilla warfare, was killed in what was reported to be an ambush by Hezbollah fighters in a village in southern Lebanon. Other Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) personnel killed in clashes with Hezbollah on Wednesday include four members of a commando unit, two soldiers serving with a reconnaissance squad, and another who was part of the

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Could Iran target Jews outside Israel?

After the massive direct Iranian attack on Israel, many breathed a sigh of relief that Israel’s defences were mostly well prepared and highly effective. The one death reported was that of a Gazan Palestinian man killed by shrapnel near Jericho. So much for Iranian solidarity with the Palestinians. Yet tensions remain high as further Iranian aggression may follow. This time, it could the Jews of Europe, the UK or America who are the targets.  Iran has a history of responding to setbacks with global terrorism Israel’s impressive strategic operational activities in Lebanon and Syria have not only severely limited Hezbollah’s abilities, but also restored Israel’s intelligence and military deterrence in

Svitlana Morenets Svitlana Morenets

Don’t blame Ukraine for not giving up

Two years ago, Volodymyr Zelensky was hailed as a hero in America. He was the man who stood up to Putin, who saw off the pillar of Russian tanks advancing on Kyiv – the man who’d fight the revanchist autocracy so the West didn’t have to. How times have changed. To a great many in Washington he is now a liability, a hustler, someone trying to pour American money and his countrymen’s lives into an unwinnable war. An increasing number of Republicans are making him the scapegoat for a war that only the Kremlin can end. The outcome of next month’s US presidential election will be watched more closely in

Paul Wood

Israel is reshaping the Middle East in its favour

Iran has fallen into the trap set by Israel. It has taken the bait after months of failing to respond to a series of devastating – and humiliating – attacks, which decapitated its Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, and killed the leader of Hamas in Tehran. But the regime may have self-immolated by firing missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, an attack meant to inflict real harm – which inevitably means an Israeli response. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, may now get the war that some have accused him of wanting all along: a war to destroy the regime in Tehran, fought with American help. The hardliners on both sides are running

Niall Ferguson and Jay Mens

Israel’s Iron Prime Minister

At home, the left sees him as cynical, conniving and corrupt; while the right sees him as tired, weak and unambitious. Abroad, he is almost universally loathed and distrusted. And yet no one can deny his Machiavellian mastery of the dirty game of politics, domestic and international. Modern history has produced only two figures who fit this description. The first is Germany’s Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck. The second is Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. For Bibi – his nickname and the title of his recent autobiography – read Bibismarck. Netanyahu has been Prime Minister for almost 14 of the past 15 years, not quite the 19 years Bismarck served

Wednesday

Douglas Murray

Israel was right to ignore the West

There are sources in the Jewish tradition that warn against exultation at the downfall of one’s enemies. But I am not Jewish, and so I have exulted greatly these past two weeks. If you follow most of the British media, you may well think that the past year involves the following events: Israel attacked Hamas, Israel invaded Lebanon, Israel bombed Yemen. Oh and someone left a bomb in a room in Tehran that killed the peaceful Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh. Kamala Harris warned that the IDF shouldn’t go into Rafah. As she wisely said: ‘I’ve studied the maps’ Of course all this is an absolute inversion of the truth. Hamas

Jonathan Spyer

Israel is likely to hit back hard against Iran

Iran’s decision to launch 181 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night followed a similar pattern to the attacks of 14 April. Israeli and allied air defences appear to have performed extremely effectively. The damage to the military and civilian sites targeted is minor to non-existent. One Palestinian Arab man was killed in a village near Jericho, not from the Iranian missiles, it appears, but from interceptor debris.   I live in a Jerusalem neighbourhood on what’s called the ‘Seam Line’ between the Jewish and Arab populations. We generally have cordial relations with our Arabic-speaking neighbours, and as I stood outside my front door last night trying to get some pictures of the missiles flying over

Steerpike Steerpike

Why hasn’t Trump congratulated J.D. Vance?

Even the most ardent Trump-loathers are admitting that, last night, the Republican vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance easily won his debate against his opposite number, Tim Walz. ‘Vance is going home with Walz’s wallet,’ said the veteran Never Trumper David Frum.  It’s curious, then, that – at time of writing at least – Donald Trump still hasn’t congratulated his running mate over his resounding victory, at least not publicly. Last night, on his Truth Social media account, Trump posted a rude meme about how stupid Tim Walz is, but no applause for JD.  Even more mysteriously, as the debate finished, Trump posted on Twitter/X a tribute not to Vance but to ‘one

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

China’s fear and loathing of the Japanese

Chinese nationalism is a mixture of self-pity and cultural arrogance Ten-year-old Shen Hangping was walking to school when he was stabbed. Japanese on his father’s side, Chinese on his mother’s, he was a pupil at the Japanese School in Shenzhen. There are only a small number of these expat schools across China, and they have recently become targets of Chinese nationalist anger. Shenzhen was the second such attack in three months. In June, a knife-wielding man tried to board a bus full of children attending the Japanese school in Suzhou. The Chinese bus attendant held him off: he killed her instead. Knife attacks are not rare in China (just this

Fabian Hoffmann

What we know so far about Iran’s massive missile attack

Last night, Iran launched a large-scale missile strike against Israel, dubbed ‘Operation True Promise II’. According to the latest reports, the attack involved approximately 180 ballistic missiles, making it one of the largest missile assaults in history. Iranian officials stated that the attack was in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in late July, the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last week, and Israel’s broader conduct in the region in recent months. Details about the attack, including its targets and the damage caused, remain murky at this time. But it seems that Iran targeted Nevatim airbase, Tel Nof airbase, and the headquarters

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Michel Barnier seems shocked by Emmanuel Macron’s mess

Prime Minister Michel Barnier addressed parliament on Tuesday afternoon as he outlined his government’s policy programme. The priority, explained Barnier, was to tackle France’s ‘colossal’ debt of 3.2 trillion (£2.7 trillion) euros, which has left the Republic with the ‘sword of Damocles hanging over the head of France and every French person’.  The gravity of the crisis still doesn’t seem to be getting through to many MPs, who continue to behave like spoiled brats Barnier declared his intention to reduce the public deficit from 6 per cent of GDP to 5 per cent by next year, and to 3 per cent by 2029 – two years beyond the 2027 deadline

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

J.D. Vance dominated the VP debate

To manage expectations in the run-up to last night’s debate, Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, let it be known through anonymous sources that he was nervous. He didn’t want to let Kamala Harris down.  Well, he was tense and it showed. The first question was, inevitably, about the big story of the moment, the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Walz, speaking first, fumbled. He said ‘Iran’ when he meant ‘Israel’, twice, which hardly suggested a mastery of international affairs. He then rambled through various points about the ‘fickleness’ of Donald Trump in foreign affairs. The Republican came over as straightforwardly intelligent and perceptive – the Democrat, less

Jason M. Brodsky

Iran must pay for this attack on Israel

At age 85, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been risk-averse for much of his time in office. He has preferred to operate through proxies and partners like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis rather than directly engaging in combat with Israel and the United States. This is how he has survived. Since becoming supreme leader in 1989, Khamenei has pursued a gradual approach to eradicating the state of Israel by encircling it in a ring of fire to bleed it slowly.  His risk calculus has now changed, as shown by last night’s missile attack on Israel. According to Israeli officials, Iran launched around 200 missiles towards Israel, most of

Charles Lipson

Vance vs Walz was what a debate should look like

The most important takeaway from the vice-presidential debate between Senator J.D. Vance and Governor Tim Walz is that this is what a serious debate for high office should look like. It was calm but impassioned, thoughtful, and truly helpful to any voter who wants to understand the policy differences between the two tickets. The candidates actually listened to each other, acknowledged some agreements and identified genuine areas of difference. Equally important, each managed to put forward a coherent case for his own ticket, stressing the key issues in their respective campaigns. Both the tone and substance of the debate was far superior to the two presidential debates. The Trump-Biden debate

Jacob Heilbrunn

J.D. Vance made the case for Trump better than Trump

Tim Walz versus J.D. Vance was the anti-Trump debate. There were no references to the animal kingdom in this Vice-Presidential debate. There were no sharp attacks about abortion. There were no vituperative comments about a lack of character. There weren’t even any assessments of golf handicaps à la Joe Biden and Donald Trump during their first debate.  Vance subtly detached himself from Trump’s bluff and bombast by coming across as MAGA with a human face Instead, on CBS News on Tuesday evening, two Midwesterners, one from Ohio, the other Minnesota, maintained a genial tone, vying with each other to express their fervour for bipartisanship and conviction that each wants nothing but the

Jonathan Miller Jonathan Miller

Michel Barnier’s government in name only

A trillion here and a trillion there and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.  Of course, France now owes even more than that. To be precise, a colossal €3,228,000,000,000. Up by one trillion euros since the election in 2017 of President Emmanuel Macron, the ‘Mozart of finance’. A ‘sword of Damocles’, admitted the new French prime minister Michel Barnier on Tuesday in his speech to the National Assembly setting out the programme of his minority government. A government in name only, it can be said, since it depends on its survival on the consent of Marine Le Pen.   As the left opposition hissed and Le Pen beamed like

Tuesday

Limor Simhony Philpott

Will Israel fire back on Iran?

Israel has come under widespread missile attack from Iran. Some 200 ground-to-ground missiles were launched from Iran, according to Israeli media. Israelis have been ordered to stay in bomb shelters while the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) intercept missiles overhead. The sound of interceptions over Tel Aviv, Israel’s largest city, are constant and deafening. So far, there don’t appear to be any casualties or direct hits. Among Iran’s targets were military bases, including airforce and intelligence facilities. It’s not known whether the attack has now finished, or if another wave of missiles is making its way to Israel. Elsewhere, a terror attack this evening in Jaffa has resulted in the death

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Iran launches a missile attack on Israel

Iranian missiles are slicing through the evening sky over Tel Aviv as Tehran responds to the killing of Hezbollah leader and terrorist mastermind Hassan Nasrallah. Some reports on Israeli television put the number of missiles at 100, while the head of emergency medical organisation Magen David Adom has told Channel 12 that the number is in the hundreds. Videos uploaded to social media show some ballistics being intercepted. The attack has coincided with a shooting incident in nearby Jaffa, where two terrorists are reported to have murdered eight and injured a further seven. It is not clear whether the two incidents are linked. Iran will want to avoid a hot

Jonathan Spyer

Why Hezbollah miscalculated – and Israel attacked

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the IDF spokesman’s office issued a laconic statement, according to which Israeli forces have commenced ‘raids… based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.’ With this terse announcement, Israel signalled that its 18-year policy of restraint and reaction on its northern border was definitively over, and that the door has been opened to something new.  Hezbollah takes a particular pride in its claimed deep knowledge of and understanding of Israeli society How did we reach this point?