World

Thursday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Team Trump: who’s in – and who’s out?

If Donald Trump wins back the White House next week, adopt the brace position. His opponents will go beserk, inevitably, and try once again to put him in prison. Yet Trump allies might go even more crazy as they scramble for influence. Trump claims to have learned from the mistakes of his first term. But what counts as a mistake depends on who you talk to. And it’s impossible to even guess at what a Trump Redux might mean without some sense of who he talks to these days – and who might shape and influence his agenda if he is elected. The awkward truth – for insiders anyway –

Christopher Caldwell

How quickly would Trump wash his hands of Ukraine?

For American politicians, all wars are two-front wars. There is a hot battlefield somewhere in the Middle East or the South China Sea, and there’s a political battlefield in Washington, D.C. The domestic contest is decisive. The same goes for Europe. With Joe Biden riding into the sunset and the presidential campaign drawing to a close, American interest in Ukraine is winding down, too. Europeans talking tough about ‘standing up’ to Russia had better be prepared to do so on their own. The next president will find the domestic pressure to scale back involvement in Ukraine irresistible Donald Trump’s campaign message, muddled though it is, bodes ill for the Ukrainian

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Tax rises, a cheddar heist and snail delivery man gets slapped

Home Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, repeatedly mentioning an inherited ‘£22 billion black hole’, raised taxes by £40 billion in the Budget, while saying she was abiding by Labour’s manifesto promise not to increase taxes on ‘working people’. A big hit came from increasing employers’ contributions to national insurance; the threshold at which it begins to be paid was reduced from £9,100 to £5,000. But income tax and NI thresholds for employees would be unfrozen from 2028. Capital gains tax went up; stamp duty for second homes rose. Fuel duty would again be frozen. The non-dom regime was abolished. Tobacco went up; a pint of draught went down

Wednesday

Owen Matthews

Meet the western conservatives moving to Russia

Tofurious Maximus Crane was sitting in a barber’s chair in Moscow when he received the greatest news of his life. It was 19 August, the day Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to immigrate to Russia. Now, the 46-year-old native of Virginia Beach, Virginia, could finally achieve his life’s dream of remaining in Russia for ever. ‘For me, the decree is the best thing that ever happened in my life besides, you know, family and children,’ says Crane, a charismatic bear of an American who sports a long Old Testament beard and perfectly coiffed hipster hair. ‘I got the notification about the decree, and I jumped up out of

Andrew Watts

Who do US psychics predict will win the election?

A week away from the American election, and the polls cannot tell us who will be president. But can they ever? A poll is, as the pundits always remind us, a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction. Nate Silver himself said that anyone dissecting an individual poll is ‘just doing astrology’. So what predictions are actual astrologers making about the election? She looks relieved when she draws the High Priestess: a trump card, but possibly not a Trump card Under the electoral college system, nationwide data is not as important as predictions for the swing states, so I look for astrologers in the seven states which will decide the election.

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Still hunting for a Trump trade? Gold may have further to rise

Anyone hunting for a ‘Trump trade’ at this late stage has probably missed the US election bus. If you bought gold as a traditional safe-haven asset back in February at £1,600 an ounce, you’d be a smug 33 per cent up by now – though my man in the bullion market tells me the rise is by no means all to do with presidential hopes and fears. There has also been big buying from China possibly linked to moves, with Russia and other unfriendly actors, towards ‘de-dollarisation’ of world trade using a partially gold-backed alternative currency. Which means there could be more upside ahead, my man says, and gold ETFs

Ruaridh Nicoll

The dark side of life in Cuba

The first scent of trouble came when Cuba’s government ordered all its non-essential workers home. By packing them off (and there are plenty of them, given Cuba is one of the world’s last centrally planned communist states) the government hoped the island’s exhausted national power grid would get a breather. It didn’t work, the main power station crashed, and Cuba went dark. At first, I didn’t think it was a big deal. Power cuts in this all-but-bankrupt state have long been a daily scourge. But it turns out there’s a categoric difference between 20 and 24 hours of blackout. I came to Cuba in 2018 for a three-month stay and

Daniel McCarthy

Vibes don’t matter. Donald Trump is still the underdog

Hillary Clinton has a simple but bitter lesson to teach Donald Trump’s supporters in 2024: the best way to lose an election is to assume you’ve already won it a week before it happens.  ​The MAGA movement ­– aiming to Make America Great Again, namely by Making Trump President Again – has never been more confident. Opinion polls have Trump faring much better against Kamala Harris than he ever did against Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. Indeed, the polling averages actually place Trump ahead, which wasn’t the case at this point in either of his earlier elections.  And since the polls underestimated his share of vote the

Ian Williams Ian Williams

Why billionaires are fleeing China

‘To get rich is glorious’ is perhaps the most over-used slogan attributed to Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader who reformed China and opened its economy up to the world. There is no evidence that he actually said it, but regardless it seemed to capture the mood of that era. In the China of Xi Jinping, to get rich is decidedly dangerous, which may account for why the number of super-rich (or at least those admitting to it) is in sharp decline, with many now clambering for the exit to protect their wealth and their liberty. According to a rich list compiled by Hurun, a research group, the number of dollar

Tuesday

Ahron Bregman

Could Israel bring down Iran’s regime?

So, the long-awaited Israeli strike on Iran is finally over, and if we trust the Israeli post-attack analysis, then it went well. Buckling under American pressure not to attack Iranian nuclear or oil facilities, which could have led to massive escalation and a spike in oil prices (both undesired outcomes on the eve of US elections), Israel focused instead on military targets. Its 100-aircraft armada knocked out all of Iran’s S-300 air defence system, reduced Iranian ballistic missile production by 80 per cent, and struck air defence systems in the vicinity of Abadan, an oil production centre. This air attack caused not only physical damage but also sent a clear

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Macron is doing his best to alienate France’s Jews

Emmanuel Macron arrived in Morocco on Monday for a three day State visit, during which time he will discuss trade and security. Among his entourage is Yassine Belattar, a light entertainer with a controversial past. In September last year, the 42-year-old Franco-Moroccan was found guilty by a Paris court of making death threats against the screenwriter and director Kader Aoun. Belattar was given a four-month suspended sentence and he was also ordered to pay damages to an actor. The charges arose from the takeover of a Paris theatre in 2018. Macron is a poor judge of character. Perhaps he is too arrogant to care It was also in 2018 that

Michael Evans

Is Hamas ready for a ceasefire deal?

The president of Egypt has come up with the most modest of proposals to try and end the war in Gaza. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has proposed a 48-hour ceasefire to facilitate the release of just four Israeli hostages in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel. El-Sisi’s objective is for the two-day truce to then lead to a longer-term ceasefire. He has suggested a ten-day negotiating period following the release of the four hostages. His proposal has coincided with the arrival in Doha, of the heads of the CIA and Mossad for renewed talks for a ceasefire-and-hostage-release framework. Washington still wants a deal that will

Robin Culshaw

Trump promises safety to Middle America

I have spent the past week travelling across ‘swing country’. Namely Pennsylvania and Ohio – two of the crucial states which will decide the coming US election. The former is important for the presidential race, the latter for control of the Senate. I spent time following a pollster, joining interviews and focus groups. The first stop was an affluent Pennsylvania suburb near Allentown. In 2020, the county (Lehigh) broke for the Democrats in a closely contested race – the party won just 53 per cent – and it is often seen as a bellwether for the national mood. In the suburb I met Rebecca and her family. Their sprawling bungalow-style

Monday

Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn

Volkswagen’s woes are no surprise

Where did it all go wrong for Volkswagen? The German carmaker is said to be planning to shut several factories and lay off thousands of staff. Workers who do keep their jobs could see their pay cut by as much as ten per cent, according to VW’s top employee representative, Daniela Cavallo. If the revelations are correct, the three factories will be the first to be shuttered in the company’s 87-year history. It is hard to overestimate the scale of the shock that the claims about VW, a company that has always been emblematic of the country’s post-war economic miracle, has delivered to the German economy today. Yet Germany –

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Japan could soon lose one of its best assets

What now? This is the question on everyone’s lips here in Tokyo after a dramatic general election which looks to have inflicted a potentially grievous wound on Japan’s eternal party of government. The Liberal Democratic Party (known as Jiminto) led by the barely broken-in new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost its overall majority, even if its partners, the Buddhism-associated Komeito, are factored into the equation.  The result was a mess In one of the worse nights in its history, the LDP, who have held power for 65 out of the last 69 years, lost 68 seats. They remain the largest party overall but will now have to scramble to put

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Battle of Ideas – is China in decline?

95 min listen

Is China in decline? I was born in China in the 90s, and growing up it felt like the future was always going to be brighter. My parents were wealthier, more educated, better travelled than their parents, and it seemed assured that my generation would only have even better life chances. But in the 2020s, China’s economic growth has slowed down. Some of the once-bright spots in its economy, like real estate, are in slow motion meltdown. In the last couple of years foreign direct investment into the country has been falling at a record pace. The youth unemployment rate from this summer shows that just under a fifth of

Alexander Kolyandr

Russia is creeping towards stagflation

The Central Bank of Russia raised its benchmark rate to a twenty-year high of 21 per cent on Friday – and has indicated that it could go even higher. Even Vladimir Putin, a notorious serial boaster, won’t be caught bragging about this tell-tale sign of a not-so-healthy economy. The writing is on the wall: Russia is getting closer to stagflation – a no-growth, high-inflation economy.  An interest rate this high is unprecedented. In February 2003, still fresh in his job, Putin launched reforms to kick-start the Russian economy after the 1998 financial meltdown; the central bank brought its refinancing rate to 20 per cent and has kept it below that level ever

Dalibor Rohac

Georgia’s elections didn’t have to pan out this way

The news that came out of Georgia late on Saturday was as saddening as it was predictable. For weeks, the country’s ruling party, the Russia-aligned Georgian Dream (GD), were advertising that they saw no alternative to staying in power following the rigged parliamentary election – promising a ban on opposition parties and even ‘Nuremberg trials’. If there is any surprise at all, it is the sheer brazenness with which GD tilted the results in its favour. There were widespread violations of vote secrecy, including tracking voters outside polling stations, verbal threats and violence. There is evidence of vote buying, duplicitous use of ID cards, marking of ballots (making votes for parties other than

Robin Ashenden

I fear for Georgia’s future

Following this weekend’s fraughtly awaited election ‘results’ in Georgia – as important for the country’s direction as any since the end of the Cold War – a potentially explosive situation is developing. While exit polls suggested the Georgian Dream (the incumbent, pro-Kremlin party) would gain no more than 42 per cent to the collective opposition’s 58 per cent, Sunday morning saw GD leader Bidzina Ivanishvili declaring victory and claiming 54 per cent of the vote. ‘It is rare for any party anywhere in the world to achieve such success in such a difficult situation,’ Ivanishvili crowed.   Yet amidst widespread allegations of rigged ballots, intimidation and voter fraud, opposition parties are refusing to accept

Charlie Gammell

Regime change in Iran is a bad idea

In 2012, as the Islamic Republic showed signs of buckling under the weight of US and EU sanctions, Senator John Kerry spearheaded a series of backchannel meetings with his Iranian counterparts to begin exploring the deal that became the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an arms reduction agreement between Iran and western nations in which Iran would receive sanctions relief in exchange for caps on uranium enrichment. The US and its allies sought to strike a bargain with an Islamic Republic desperate for foreign investment, eager to accept terms. Yet in the years leading up to the JCPOA’s signing in 2014, another strand of thought emerged from within US