World

Wednesday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Election night: early signs suggest it’s Trump’s to lose

21 min listen

Results are coming in across the United States, and the early signs (though it is still very early) look good for Donald Trump. At the time of recording, the betting markets are with him and the famous New York Times ‘Needle’ has swung to a ‘likely’ Trump victory. It is still much too early to call in an election that could drag on for days to come. No media outlet has called it for either candidate yet. To give you the latest updates from the States, Kate Andrews is joined by The Spectator’s team on the ground: Amber Duke is in battleground state Michigan; Matt McDonald joins from Washington DC,

Tuesday

Charlotte Henry

A Donald Trump victory would not be ‘good for Israel’

As Americans prepared to head to the polls, I heard from lots of Jews in the UK and elsewhere that a Donald Trump victory will be ‘good for Israel’. By this, they generally mean that Trump will be less critical of the Israeli government and the military action it is taking in response to 7 October than both his successor (and potential predecessor) Joe Biden, and opponent Kamala Harris. That may well be true. However, Israel has already been able to strike Iran directly, something it surely could not do without at least implicit American support. Indeed, there are reports that American fighter jets were on standby should anything go

Edward Howell

North Korea isn’t scared of the UN

It surely comes as no surprise to hear that North Korea does not like the United Nations. The hermit kingdom has long derided the organisation as espousing ‘double standards’ in what Pyongyang has believed to be an unfair demonisation of its ‘sovereign rights’ to test missiles, conduct satellite launches – a euphemism for testing ballistic missile technology – or blow up roads and railways linking the communist North with the capitalist South. So when North Korea’s sharp-tongued ambassador to the UN, Kim Song, announced yesterday that the country would accelerate its nuclear and missile development the timing was anything but random. The reasoning, he said, was the ‘nuclear threat of

Mitchell Reiss

The danger of America’s long presidential handover

As the US presidential race rollercoasters towards its finale, many Americans are already bracing themselves for a close and highly contested vote. The uncertain outcome of the election is just the beginning of what could be a fraught period for the United States and the world. There are 76 days for mischief, or worse, between this year’s election date and the transition to a new president being sworn in on 20 January. Traditionally, this period has been used by the president-elect to piece together a cabinet, reward staffers and large campaign donors with senior positions, refine policy priorities, entertain foreign officials eager to ingratiate themselves, and studiously avoid any hard

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Donald Trump’s ‘counter-cultural’ gamble

23 min listen

Last night, Donald Trump appeared for what will be his last-ever presidential campaign rally, for a crowd of about 12,000 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. He stuck with tradition and ran through many of his greatest hits – dishing out insults, talking about his scrape with death, and dancing to ‘YMCA’. But he did also hammer home his pitch as ‘Trump the fixer’, and the one who can undo four years of Biden–Harris. In the crowd was Spectator World’s Washington editor, Amber Duke, who joins Kate Andrews from Michigan to discuss what she’s seeing on the ground as Americans go to the polls in this key swing state. Which issue will be

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

The Trump-Harris election has broken America

‘Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all,’ said Balfour. Tell that to the American political class on the day of the 2024 presidential election. After months of the Trump–Biden–Harris drama – the criminal indictments, the disaster debates, the President dropping out, the assassination attempts – the nation is in a state of nervous exhaustion. Team Harris and Team Trump have both been clear: 2024 is existential ‘I just want this to be over,’ America’s politicos almost all say, as they tell you in the same breath that their country could, in fact, be on the brink of a long and possibly violent civil conflict. Team Harris and

Steerpike Steerpike

Five of Labour’s worst Trump attacks

The countdown is on, with just days left until the result of the US presidential election is announced. With pollsters across the world undecided about the likely outcome, Sir Keir’s Starmer’s government is trying to hedge its bets. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has insisted on the airwaves today that ‘there will be a really good working relationship’ between the Labour lot and Donald Trump if the former president emerges victorious – despite hordes of Labour volunteers travelling stateside to canvas for Kamala. But is there too much water under the bridge to repair relations? Reform leader and Trump ally Nigel Farage said last month it was ‘ludicrous’ for Starmer’s army

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

The sheer joylessness of Kamala Harris

Whatever happened to Kamala Harris’s promise of ‘joy’? Joy was in catastrophically short supply among her supporters I met in the United States last week. I’ve never encountered a more glee-less crew. It was all Nazi this, Nazi that, ‘The world is burning’, ‘We don’t want a rapist in the White House’. If this really is the ‘vibes’ election, then the only vibe I got from these folk was clinical depression. It is almost entirely negative: Vote Kamala or the world gets it I saw them amassed on the streets outside Madison Square Garden in New York City last weekend where they had gathered to protest Donald Trump’s big rally.

Sam McPhail

How accurate are the US election polls?

Is Donald Trump going to lose Iowa? That’s the conclusion many US pundits came to after a bombshell poll over the weekend. That poll, conducted by the psephologist Ann Selzer, put Kamala Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, despite Trump having comfortably won the state by almost ten points in the past two presidential elections. So Iowa could tonight return to swing state status. In past elections voters in the state have backed Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Trump: now they might turn to Harris. However, at the same time as the Selzer poll was published, a contradictory but less-covered poll indicated another strong Trump victory. This poll from Emerson College concluded that

Steerpike Steerpike

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?  Mr S will be tracking the betting markets every five minutes and updating the graph below…

Daniel McCarthy

A ripple, not a wave, will decide the US election

What can the 2020 and 2016 elections, the previous votes in which Donald Trump was the Republican nominee, tell us about today’s race for the White House? There are three layers to a presidential election, only two of which really matter. The overall ‘popular’ vote only counts for bragging rights. Trump has never won it. The popular vote in individual states, however, is the critical second layer of the election. Trump won the 2016 election because he eked out slender popular pluralities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona – four states that are battlegrounds this year as well – and in Florida, which since 2000 had been the biggest prize

Daniel DePetris

Why a Trump win may not rock the boat as much as you think

If you didn’t know any better, you might think the 2024 US presidential election was a make-or-break moment for America and the world. Allies and adversaries alike will be watching the election results like the rest of us: on the edge of our seats. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now. So goes the result in those three states, so goes the fate of the international system as we know it. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now It’s all a bit dramatic. Sure, certain countries have their favourites. South Korea, for example, is petrified that a second

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

France’s drugs war is spiralling out of control

Even by the bloody standards of what France has become under Emmanuel Macron, the carnage last week was horrific. In Poitiers, a shootout left five youths seriously wounded, one of whom died of his injuries at the weekend. In Rennes, a 5-year-old remains in a serious state after being hit in the head by a stray bullet. In Valence, a 22-year-old man was shot dead and two others wounded as they queued outside a nightclub for a Halloween party on Thursday night; the following day an 18-year-old was gunned down and killed in a suburb of the same town. In Villeurbanne, a suburb of Lyon, a man was shot dead,

Monday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Is the last minute momentum really with Kamala Harris?

36 min listen

As the 2024 US election goes into the final day, a poll giving Kamala Harris a lead in the historically Republican state of Iowa has bolstered the Democrats. Is momentum really with her? And what appears to be the most important issue to voters – the economy, or abortion rights? Guest host Kate Andrews speaks to John Rick MacArthur, president and publisher of Harper’s Magazine, about his views on America’s election process from postal voting, trust in the system, and whether the electoral college needs reform. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Leon Mangasarian

How Germany became the sick man of Europe

Vertrauen ist gut, Kontrolle ist besser – trust is good, control is better – is a popular German saying. It’s also the state’s motto for overseeing Europe’s biggest economy, which is now being run into the ground. Germany’s economy is officially expected to shrink in 2024 for the second year in a row. Berlin’s Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Greens Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, who are fighting for their political lives as their coalition crumbles around them, are to blame. Only one German sector is growing: the state. Government consumption grew by 2.8 per cent from mid-2023 to mid-2024. Dealing with bureaucracy costs German business €67 billion (£55 billion)

Geoff Hill

A fragile democracy has bloomed in Botswana

There’s been a momentous election in Africa, Botswana to be exact. Not heard about it? Don’t be surprised. The British and US media have all but ignored the story or got it wrong in the run-up. Even the BBC barely mentioned it though they bang on about Israel to such a degree you’d think the war was in Guernsey instead of Gaza. On 30 October, Botswana held a general election as they have every five years since independence from Britain in 1966. Of all the countries in Africa, it’s the only one that’s never had a coup or a period of autocratic rule. But since 1966, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)

Jim Lawley

Heads will roll after Spain’s flooding catastrophe

Spain’s King and Queen were pelted with mud yesterday when they visited Paiporta, epicentre of the flood disaster zone in the Valencia region. Over two hundred people have died in the flooding, dozens of them in Paiporta; more are thought to be trapped and, by this time, surely dead in underground garages and car parks. Local people are furious that the authorities were slow to issue flood warnings when the rains came last Tuesday and then very poor at coordinating what has turned out to be a seriously under-resourced relief effort. Locals seized the opportunity to vent their feelings of abandonment and desperation, chanting ‘Murderers’ and hurling slurry at the

Sunday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Will China tell North Korea to pull out of Russia?

Throughout the Russian invasion, China has, for the most part, refused to be drawn into the conflict. It has not condemned Russia or asked Putin to pull back (except when the threat of nuclear warfare was on the table). But it has also acquiesced to western sanctions and refrained from giving Russia lethal aid. In the meantime, the invasion has allowed Beijing to pull Moscow closer to its own economic orbit and use Russia’s gas reserves to secure its own energy imports. All this has come as western military and economic resources are bogged down in Europe, depleting the same resources which might eventually be turned to containing China in

David Starkey

How Kemi Badenoch’s Tories can rebuild Britain

The Conservatives finally have a new leader. But Kemi Badenoch must be under no illusions: after the disastrous July election, we have a mountain to climb and a revolution to undo. But we can remain hopeful, because we have been here before – and found a way out. In 1974, the Conservative prime minister Edward Heath, having taken Britain into Europe, blown up the economy and been humiliated by the miners, was defeated by Labour’s Harold Wilson. The future of the Tory party was in doubt. Surveying the wreckage, Sir Keith Joseph, who had served in Heath’s cabinet, had a revelation: ‘I had thought I was a Conservative, but now

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

It’s rich of the French to call Trump ‘vulgar’

There has always been a touch of snobbery in the way the French elite regard American politics. The word one reads and hears most often in the mainstream media is ‘vulgarity’. This is particularly true of Donald Trump, who is abhorred as much by the right-wing press as by the left. ‘Trump, vulgarity on the loose,’ was the headline in a recent article in the centre-right Le Figaro. This snootiness is long-standing, but it became more acute two decades ago during the war in Iraq. France’s refusal – correct, as it turned out – to join George W. Bush’s ‘coalition of the willing’ led to a torrent of abuse in Washington. The French