World

Wednesday

Daniel McCarthy

How a Latino wave carried Trump to victory

Donald Trump’s victory this time may not be the surprise that his 2016 win was, but for his critics it’s even more of a shock. Trump has been impeached, arrested, convicted, shot at, and relentlessly demonised as a ‘fascist’ over the last four years. None of that was enough to stop him. Just the opposite: Trump is more popular than ever, and appears to have won a national majority of the vote for the first time. Just how this happened is a question that will be analysed for weeks and months, or years, to come. But one intriguing possibility suggested by exit poll data is that multiculturalism committed suicide. Trump

Matthew Lynn

Why the market reaction to Trump 2.0 has been muted

Truth Social rocketed. Bitcoin soared in price. The dollar rose, and bond yields were up, while Chinese equities wobbled. Over the course of last night, as it became clear that Donald Trump had won the US presidential election, the markets responded to the news. The trouble is, no one really knows what Trump 2.0 means for the global economy.  Investors will have no idea until he forms an administration in January The initial price moves were very obvious. With the backing of the main crypto tycoons, a Trump White House will be a lot friendlier to digital currencies, although even that had to be kept in perspective. A 7 per

Ross Clark

The reason Kamala Harris lost

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, watching the mood change in the BBC’s election studio has been delicious. It was like a New Orleans funeral in reverse – a carnival turning a corner and transforming into a wake. This was supposed to be a historic night. But then it wasn’t just the BBC. The liberal media have been at it for days. There was supposed to be a last-minute surge in support for Kamala Harris, driven by record turnout of women coming out to fight for their rights. The idea that American voters would be steered by anything other than their own personal economic circumstances was foolish This was pure

James Johnson

Why Donald Trump is winning

Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts, including the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who puts Trump’s chance of victory at greater than 95 per cent. Trump is set to pick up at least one – and possibly all three – of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It is not confirmed yet, but it looks likely Trump will win all seven swing states. Cohn also projects a Trump lead in the popular vote, by 1.2 points. That would be the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since George Bush in 2004. There will be many postmortems

Kate Andrews

Donald Trump is set to win the presidency

In the run-up to the US election, it was expected that the count could take days, possibly a week. Now, it looks like the 2024 election will be decided in a matter of hours. Swing states North Carolina and Georgia have been called for Donald Trump. Fox News reports that the most crucial swing state in this election – Pennsylvania – has been won by Trump. The surprise Selzer poll from over the weekend, showing Kamala Harris three points ahead in Iowa, proved badly wrong: Trump has won the state. The Republican candidate is now only a few electoral votes away from clinching the presidency. The prediction market Polymarket at

Steerpike

Watch: Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell baffled by Trump's victory

Donald Trump is on course to win the US election – and it’s safe to say that Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell aren’t thrilled about the news. On a livestream of their Rest is Politics podcast, Stewart – who earlier this week said he hadn’t ‘changed my mind on Kamala Harris winning comfortably’ – struggled to process the news that the US election was far closer than he may have hoped. Stewart suggested that Trump’s success in winning the two key swing states of North Carolina and Georgia was difficult to comprehend given how good the Democrats’ ground game was during the campaign: ‘When a result happens, you rewrite history.

Kate Andrews

Election night: early signs suggest it’s Trump’s to lose

21 min listen

Results are coming in across the United States, and the early signs (though it is still very early) look good for Donald Trump. At the time of recording, the betting markets are with him and the famous New York Times ‘Needle’ has swung to a ‘likely’ Trump victory. It is still much too early to call in an election that could drag on for days to come. No media outlet has called it for either candidate yet. To give you the latest updates from the States, Kate Andrews is joined by The Spectator’s team on the ground: Amber Duke is in battleground state Michigan; Matt McDonald joins from Washington DC,

Tuesday

Charlotte Henry

A Donald Trump victory would not be 'good for Israel'

As Americans prepared to head to the polls, I heard from lots of Jews in the UK and elsewhere that a Donald Trump victory will be ‘good for Israel’. By this, they generally mean that Trump will be less critical of the Israeli government and the military action it is taking in response to 7 October than both his successor (and potential predecessor) Joe Biden, and opponent Kamala Harris. That may well be true. However, Israel has already been able to strike Iran directly, something it surely could not do without at least implicit American support. Indeed, there are reports that American fighter jets were on standby should anything go

Edward Howell

North Korea isn't scared of the UN

It surely comes as no surprise to hear that North Korea does not like the United Nations. The hermit kingdom has long derided the organisation as espousing ‘double standards’ in what Pyongyang has believed to be an unfair demonisation of its ‘sovereign rights’ to test missiles, conduct satellite launches – a euphemism for testing ballistic missile technology – or blow up roads and railways linking the communist North with the capitalist South. So when North Korea’s sharp-tongued ambassador to the UN, Kim Song, announced yesterday that the country would accelerate its nuclear and missile development the timing was anything but random. The reasoning, he said, was the ‘nuclear threat of

Mitchell Reiss

The danger of America's long presidential handover

As the US presidential race rollercoasters towards its finale, many Americans are already bracing themselves for a close and highly contested vote. The uncertain outcome of the election is just the beginning of what could be a fraught period for the United States and the world. There are 76 days for mischief, or worse, between this year’s election date and the transition to a new president being sworn in on 20 January. Traditionally, this period has been used by the president-elect to piece together a cabinet, reward staffers and large campaign donors with senior positions, refine policy priorities, entertain foreign officials eager to ingratiate themselves, and studiously avoid any hard

Kate Andrews

Donald Trump's 'counter-cultural' gamble

23 min listen

Last night, Donald Trump appeared for what will be his last-ever presidential campaign rally, for a crowd of about 12,000 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. He stuck with tradition and ran through many of his greatest hits – dishing out insults, talking about his scrape with death, and dancing to ‘YMCA’. But he did also hammer home his pitch as ‘Trump the fixer’, and the one who can undo four years of Biden–Harris. In the crowd was Spectator World’s Washington editor, Amber Duke, who joins Kate Andrews from Michigan to discuss what she’s seeing on the ground as Americans go to the polls in this key swing state. Which issue will be

Freddy Gray

The Trump-Harris election has broken America

‘Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all,’ said Balfour. Tell that to the American political class on the day of the 2024 presidential election. After months of the Trump–Biden–Harris drama – the criminal indictments, the disaster debates, the President dropping out, the assassination attempts – the nation is in a state of nervous exhaustion. Team Harris and Team Trump have both been clear: 2024 is existential ‘I just want this to be over,’ America’s politicos almost all say, as they tell you in the same breath that their country could, in fact, be on the brink of a long and possibly violent civil conflict. Team Harris and

Steerpike

Five of Labour's worst Trump attacks

The countdown is on, with just days left until the result of the US presidential election is announced. With pollsters across the world undecided about the likely outcome, Sir Keir’s Starmer’s government is trying to hedge its bets. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has insisted on the airwaves today that ‘there will be a really good working relationship’ between the Labour lot and Donald Trump if the former president emerges victorious – despite hordes of Labour volunteers travelling stateside to canvas for Kamala. But is there too much water under the bridge to repair relations? Reform leader and Trump ally Nigel Farage said last month it was ‘ludicrous’ for Starmer’s army

Brendan O’Neill

The sheer joylessness of Kamala Harris

Whatever happened to Kamala Harris’s promise of ‘joy’? Joy was in catastrophically short supply among her supporters I met in the United States last week. I’ve never encountered a more glee-less crew. It was all Nazi this, Nazi that, ‘The world is burning’, ‘We don’t want a rapist in the White House’. If this really is the ‘vibes’ election, then the only vibe I got from these folk was clinical depression. It is almost entirely negative: Vote Kamala or the world gets it I saw them amassed on the streets outside Madison Square Garden in New York City last weekend where they had gathered to protest Donald Trump’s big rally.

Sam McPhail

How accurate are the US election polls?

Is Donald Trump going to lose Iowa? That’s the conclusion many US pundits came to after a bombshell poll over the weekend. That poll, conducted by the psephologist Ann Selzer, put Kamala Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, despite Trump having comfortably won the state by almost ten points in the past two presidential elections. So Iowa could tonight return to swing state status. In past elections voters in the state have backed Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Trump: now they might turn to Harris. However, at the same time as the Selzer poll was published, a contradictory but less-covered poll indicated another strong Trump victory. This poll from Emerson College concluded that

Steerpike

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?  Mr S will be tracking the betting markets every five minutes and updating the graph below…

Daniel McCarthy

A ripple, not a wave, will decide the US election

What can the 2020 and 2016 elections, the previous votes in which Donald Trump was the Republican nominee, tell us about today’s race for the White House? There are three layers to a presidential election, only two of which really matter. The overall ‘popular’ vote only counts for bragging rights. Trump has never won it. The popular vote in individual states, however, is the critical second layer of the election. Trump won the 2016 election because he eked out slender popular pluralities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona – four states that are battlegrounds this year as well – and in Florida, which since 2000 had been the biggest prize

Daniel DePetris

Why a Trump win may not rock the boat as much as you think

If you didn’t know any better, you might think the 2024 US presidential election was a make-or-break moment for America and the world. Allies and adversaries alike will be watching the election results like the rest of us: on the edge of our seats. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now. So goes the result in those three states, so goes the fate of the international system as we know it. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now It’s all a bit dramatic. Sure, certain countries have their favourites. South Korea, for example, is petrified that a second

Gavin Mortimer

France’s drugs war is spiralling out of control

Even by the bloody standards of what France has become under Emmanuel Macron, the carnage last week was horrific. In Poitiers, a shootout left five youths seriously wounded, one of whom died of his injuries at the weekend. In Rennes, a 5-year-old remains in a serious state after being hit in the head by a stray bullet. In Valence, a 22-year-old man was shot dead and two others wounded as they queued outside a nightclub for a Halloween party on Thursday night; the following day an 18-year-old was gunned down and killed in a suburb of the same town. In Villeurbanne, a suburb of Lyon, a man was shot dead,

Monday

Kate Andrews

Is the last minute momentum really with Kamala Harris?

36 min listen

As the 2024 US election goes into the final day, a poll giving Kamala Harris a lead in the historically Republican state of Iowa has bolstered the Democrats. Is momentum really with her? And what appears to be the most important issue to voters – the economy, or abortion rights? Guest host Kate Andrews speaks to John Rick MacArthur, president and publisher of Harper’s Magazine, about his views on America’s election process from postal voting, trust in the system, and whether the electoral college needs reform. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.