World

Friday

Dalibor Rohac

Slating Nato won’t help Donald Trump

Reacting to Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Scranton, Pennsylvania, earlier this week, Donald Trump reiterated his long-standing ambition to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to a quick negotiated settlement instead of continuing with open-ended military support to Kyiv. If he wins the election, Trump said, ‘the first thing I’m gonna do is call up Zelensky and call up President Putin and I’m gonna say, “You gotta make a deal, this is crazy”.’ Trump is often seen as mercurial and unpredictable – an impression he revels in – but his desire to solve conflicts with real estate-like deals forms a consistent pattern of his foreign policy. In the context of Ukraine, that framing

Carson Becker

Viktor Orban’s adviser has made a big mistake

This week Balazs Orban, the bespectacled political director to the Hungarian Prime Minister (and of no relation to him), has found himself in trouble after a podcast interview he gave on Wednesday. He seemed to imply that Ukraine should not have resisted the Russian onslaught – and that if Hungary had been in a similar position, it would have given up without a fight.  ‘We probably wouldn’t have done what President Zelensky did two and a half years ago, because it’s irresponsible,’ Orban said. ‘Because obviously he put his country into a war defence, all these people died, all this territory was lost – again, it’s their right, it’s their

Michael Evans

Joe Biden has tried and failed to fix the Middle East

No one can accuse President Joe Biden of failing to do his utmost to prevent a full-scale war from breaking out in the Middle East. He and his indefatigable envoys must have spent more time this year working on the Middle East than any other issue.  The intensive diplomatic efforts by Antony Blinken, secretary of state, Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, Bill Burns, CIA director, and Amos Hochstein, Biden’s man covering Lebanon, among others, were supposed not only to find a workable solution to the myriad of crises but also enhance the President’s foreign policy legacy after what has turned out to be only one term in office.  Biden began his administration

John Foreman

How to evacuate a country

As fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah, planning for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon has seen troops, ships and aircraft preparing in Cyprus and the wider region. Defence Secretary John Healey has chaired meetings in London to avoid the government being caught on the hop as happened before the evacuation from Kabul in 2021, following the unexpected collapse of the Afghan National Army. UK tabloids are already screaming about a ‘Dunkirk-style’ amphibious evacuation should an air extraction route become unavailable. This comparison is misleading. Naval planners had only seven days before launching the miraculous evacuation of 330,000 members of the British Expeditionary Force in 1940 under ferocious German attack. Evacuation plans of perhaps

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

French women are afraid. But the country’s politicians don’t care

In a country that has become accustomed to atrocities in the last decade, the brutal murder of a 19-year-old student has outraged France. The body of the young woman, named only as Philippine, was discovered last Saturday in the Bois de Boulogne, a famous park in the west of Paris. She had gone missing on Friday afternoon, shortly after eating lunch in her university canteen.  ‘I want to speak out to warn women that we are no longer safe in France, even in a neighbourhood we think is safe’ On Tuesday evening, the authorities in Geneva, acting on information provided by French police, arrested a man as he arrived on

Thursday

Fabian Hoffmann

How worried should we be about Putin’s nuclear threat?

Vladimir Putin has announced that Moscow’s nuclear doctrine will be adjusted, telling a group of senior officials that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it is attacked using conventional weapons.  Inevitably there is concern that Putin could resort to a nuclear strike on Europe if western assistance to Ukraine crosses certain red lines. Putin’s remarks took place on 25 September, when the Russian Security Council held a meeting to discuss Russia’s nuclear deterrence posture. The Russian President said that the doctrine will be updated so that if a non-nuclear state attacks with the cooperation of a nuclear state, it will be seen as a joint attack. And Russia will consider a nuclear strike once: ‘we receive

Ian O’Doherty

Ireland’s embarrassing hate speech fiasco

To the surprise of nobody and the disappointment of only a few, the Irish government has finally accepted reality and dropped its hugely controversial plans to introduce stringent hate speech legislation. Under its original proposal, the Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hate and Hatred Offences) Bill 2022 was so broad that it made Scotland’s much derided hate crime Act look like a manifesto for free speech by comparison. The proposed law, first introduced by Justice Minister Helen McEntee in November 2022, was always a divisive piece of legislation. It was condemned by many because it looked as if it been drafted by a committee of rabid social justice warriors

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Putting Marine Le Pen in the dock could backfire

There was a vigorous interview on Tuesday morning on a prominent French radio station. The guest was Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a senior MP in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, and the last question put to him concerned his leader’s impending trial on charges of financial impropriety. Tanguy had on two occasions to remind the presenter to stick to the conditional tense when talking about the charges; his interlocutor made it sound as if Le Pen was guilty until proven innocent. She will be joined the dock in Paris next week by 26 other members of the National Rally, including Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan. They are accused of the misappropriation

Aidan Hartley

Life lessons from a 2,000-year-old plant

Iona, Angola East of the gulps of cormorants along the Skeleton Coast by the Ilha da Baia dos Tigres, Atlantic mists are rolling in across the Angolan desert. A red, alien sun dips towards the horizon and I’m crouching down on the sand, with my face close to the oldest living thing on our planet. If the oldest living thing in the world dies, that’s not a cheery message for the rest of the planet Some say the Welwitschia mirabilis plant, which can grow for 2,000 years, looks like an octopus, with its green leaves spreading like tentacles in a circle. In Afrikaans it’s apparently known as the ‘tweeblaarkanniedood’ –

Paul Wood

Is Israel trying to drag America into a war with Iran?

The American general David Petraeus famously asked of the invasion of Iraq: ‘Tell me how this ends.’ That’s the question as Israeli bombs and missiles fall on Lebanon and the few missiles Hezbollah has sent in response are intercepted. Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ seems paralysed with indecision. Does Benjamin Netanyahu take this as a win, the vindication of the enormous chance he took by opening a new northern front? Or, like a gambler intoxicated by success at the tables, does he press on? More airstrikes, followed by an invasion of Lebanon… and then the bombers fly on to Iran?  Some Israelis commentators are already calling this the Third Lebanon War

Owen Matthews

What does ‘victory’ for Ukraine look like?

This week in New York Volodymyr Zelensky will present Joe Biden with a ‘Victory Plan’ for Ukraine. But how to define what ‘victory’ actually means? A fundamental and fast-widening distance is opening up over that question between Zelensky and his western allies – as well as inside Ukraine itself. Zelensky insists that the bottom line of a Ukrainian victory remains ‘the occupation army [being] driven out by force or diplomatically, in such a way that the country preserves its true independence and is freed from occupation’. He has also rejected the idea of a ceasefire, saying that any ‘freezing of the war or any other manipulations… will simply postpone Russian

Douglas Murray

Sky News has lost its way

Occasionally I am told that I go too hard on the BBC. It is an understandable gripe which I sometimes hear from disgruntled journos from Broadcasting House. So let me start by saying that, as an equal-opportunities insulter, I would like to put on the record how completely rancid Sky News in the UK has become. To give an idea of where Sky UK has gone wrong since being sold, allow me to highlight one story as the channel reported it this week. After the targeted strikes on Hezbollah operatives via their pagers and walkie-talkies, Sky ran a story headlined: ‘Hezbollah has been provoked like never before by Israel and

Jonathan Miller Jonathan Miller

Why French students want English uniforms

Béziers, France The École Mairan in Béziers in southern France is a happy neighbourhood elementary school housed in a superb renovated 19th-century hôtel particulier. In the middle of the medieval city, surrounded by both great houses and humbler tenements, it is attended by 120 pupils aged six to 11. There are the children of Algerian and Moroccan immigrants and the children of distinguished Biterrois families, with a sprinkling of Spaniards, Italians, Ukrainians and one American. Mairan is one of four schools in Béziers, and 100 in France, where this autumn children have started wearing school uniforms. So I went to Béziers to have a look. ‘The children love their uniforms.

Wednesday

Jawad Iqbal

Why is Sadiq Khan trying to restart his fight with Donald Trump?

London mayor Sadiq Khan, whose official day job is running the capital, is in New York this week, where he has denounced Donald Trump and urged Americans to vote for Kamala Harris. Trump would set the wrong tone for the rest of the world, Khan declared. ‘What I’d say in a respectful way to Americans is: I don’t think you realise that the rest of the world is watching because we’ve got skin in the game,’ he said. Come again? Trump would set the wrong tone for the rest of the world, Khan declared Americans are choosing a leader for their country. What the world thinks about this – least of

Matthew Lynn

Donald Trump’s tariff talk is just bluster

Donald Trump is campaigning hard on protectionism, promising to bring skilled manual jobs back onshore. What will that look like? Huge tariffs on imports, foreign companies unable to ‘steal’ American jobs, a re-industrialisation of the heartlands of the United States. But here’s the catch: a trade war on the scale that Trump is promising is simply not feasible. He is bluffing.  There is no question that Trump is ramping up protectionist rhetoric. ‘American workers will no longer be worried about losing their jobs to foreign nations,’ he told a rally yesterday. ‘Vote for Trump, and you will see a mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to

Owen Matthews

How Wagner mercenaries abused HSBC and JP Morgan

Whatever happened to the Wagner Group, Evgeny Prigozhin’s shadowy army of prisoners and mercenaries? In the wake of Wagner’s abortive mutiny in June 2023 – and of Prigozhin’s own not-so-mysterious death two months later in a plane crash near Moscow – most of the Russia-based units of the group were rolled into the Kremlin’s official armed forces. In Africa, however, where Wagner built an empire not only of guns-for-hire but also of murky mining and oil concessions, Prigozhin’s former henchmen continue their bloody and lucrative business. And according to a new report by the US-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) part of that business relied on the unwitting assistance of international banks

Michael Karam

Is this the end for Hezbollah?

The recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is a war that’s not yet officially a war, initiated by a political party without a mandate that takes its orders from Tehran, in support of a Palestinian party that few Lebanese care about. Hezbollah was the jewel in the Mullah’s turban It is a decades-old conflict, an exhausting, deadly stalemate, but this recent escalation could prove to be decisive. There’s a chance Israel could finally deliver a dagger blow to Hezbollah. This would be a staggering achievement because the Iranian-backed Shia militant group controls many, if not all, of the levers of power in Lebanon, and has been a constant irritant to

Eliot Wilson

Evacuating Lebanon would test Starmer’s mettle

As the security situation in Lebanon deteriorates, the British government is accelerating plans to evacuate its civilians. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has advised British nationals in the country to leave while commercial flights were still operating. It also said that British nationals should have an evacuation plan, and warned that they should ‘not rely on FCDO being able to evacuate you in an emergency’. It is believed there may still be 10,000 British nationals in Lebanon. As things stand, most major airlines have now cancelled or suspended services to Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, and many of the remaining flights have sold out. Sir Keir Starmer has said bluntly:

Ian Williams Ian Williams

While Xi reigns, China’s economy is unreformable

It was presented as a bold stimulus to boost China’s ailing economy – but while it excited stock markets in Asia, Western economists were underwhelmed. At a rare press conference in Beijing on Tuesday, the usually gnomic governor of the People’s Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, unveiled a range of measures designed to ‘support the stable growth of China’s economy’ and see that it hits this year’s target of five per cent growth. There was a time when such measures, which included an interest rate cut and more funds to support the stock and property markets, would have quickened the pulse of investors. But this is unlikely to reverse their