Middle East

Hezbollah’s response to the killing of senior official Fuad Shukr, when it finally came, was a more minor event than anticipated. For weeks, both the Lebanese Shia Islamist group and its Iranian patron have been threatening a terrible revenge for the recent assassinations in Beirut and Tehran. It is now clear, however, that neither Hezbollah or Iran wishes to risk a descent to all put war at the present time. Iran appears to have relegated its response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran to some point in the future. Hezbollah, meanwhile, sought to target two sites of high significance – the Mossad headquarters, and the HQ

As the dust literally settles across southern Lebanon in the aftermath of the Israeli airstrikes, we are starting to see an answer to the question of whether this will be the escalation that leads to all-out war. Hezbollah has declared an end to the first phase of revenge for Israel’s assassination of its most senior military commander Fuad Shukr, who masterminded the killing of 241 marines and 58 French soldiers in 1983, in Beirut last month. Its planned attack on the headquarters of Mossad and Unit 8200, Israel’s fabled military intelligence directorate, has been averted. Casualties appear to have been very limited. Jerusalem’s spy chiefs have flown to Cairo to

Following the killings of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, Israel and the Middle East are poised and waiting for the next move. The two killings represent a significant humiliation for the Iran-led regional axis, which until this point had been projecting a sense of achievement and satisfaction.  Is Israel prepared to up the ante to the point of regional war? The October 7 massacres and the subsequent war may not have come at the express order or at the precise time wanted by the regime in Tehran. But events have proceeded largely in a way satisfactory to it. Israel appeared to be isolating itself diplomatically, unable to deliver a deathblow

Israel has been accused of killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a strike on Iran overnight. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack but Hamas said Haniyeh was ‘killed in a treacherous Zionist raid’ and vowed revenge. If indeed Israel did target Haniyeh in his Tehran residence it could mark a major escalation in the conflict. Iran will be humiliated that, even in the heart of its capital, Haniyeh was not safe. Hamas said Haniyeh was ‘killed in a treacherous Zionist raid’ Israel is yet to respond or issue a statement, but the country did say that it carried out a separate strike on Beirut yesterday in response to a

Labour isn’t typically known for offering a more hawkish foreign policy platform than the Conservatives, but at the last election there was an exception: Iran. Yvette Cooper and David Lammy have spoken in strong terms about toughening up Britain’s approach to Iran George Robertson, the former defence secretary and Nato secretary general leading the government’s defence review, has described Tehran as part of the ‘deadly quartet’ of nations working together to challenge the Western-led global order. Both Yvette Cooper and David Lammy have also previously spoken in strong terms about toughening up Britain’s approach to Iran. With the Home Office and Foreign Office on board, Sir Keir Starmer has the

A wave of violence targeting Syrian refugees is spreading through Turkey, triggered by allegations of the sexual harassment of a child by a Syrian man in the city of Kayseri. The child, also Syrian, was related to him, according to the authorities. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, 3.1 million Syrians have been granted temporary protection in Turkey, according to official figures. But now there are growing public demands for them to return to Syria, fuelled by both the governing and opposition parties in Turkey. As reports of the incident in Kayseri snowballed on social media, mobs combed the streets, attacking and burning houses, businesses, and

Voting takes place in Iran’s snap presidential election today – a contest brought forward by the death last month in a helicopter crash of the former president Ebrahim Raisi. A few predictions can be made with absolute certainty. Firstly, the winner will be a man (there are no women taking part – Iran’s ruling clerics take a dim view of the idea of a woman being allowed near the presidency). Secondly, the new president will be someone who swears absolute loyalty to the system and ultimately the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. All of which prompts the question of why bother to have an election. The answer is that elections – the

From time to time, even the most belligerent warmongers get taken down: whether it’s bad weather, or other unseen forces, there are always bigger powers at work. For now, the helicopter accident that claimed the life of Iran’s president appears to have been an act of nature, the will of God, as we like to remind ourselves in Islam. Sometimes good things do happen in bad helicopters. In the days before his death, Ebrahim Raisi was busy. Right before he left Azerbaijan for Iran, Raisi met with the country’s president at a ceremony to open a dam. Days earlier in Tehran, Raisi saw the president of the Kurdish regional government. Their talks, initiated by

Even before Tehran had formally announced the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, conspiracy theories as to whether foul play was to blame began coming in rapidly. Was Israel’s Mossad, the go-to organisation Iran likes to blame for almost any catastrophe that befalls the Islamic Republic, behind the helicopter crash? Was it the CIA, the same organisation which swept the Shah to power in a coup d’état in 1953? Or was it one of many internal enemies Raisi had managed to accumulate after his years in power? Raisi, after all, had no shortage of enemies both within and outside the regime. He was responsible for the mass executions of  an estimated