Was Trump’s trip a win for China?
Freddy speaks to Jacob Heilbrunn about China, Trump and America's foreign policy.
World
Trump needs peace in Iran
Donald Trump was for the Iran war before he was against it. His latest post on social media about the conflict indicated that he is once more calling off a sweeping military action, this time at the behest of his Gulf allies who are apparently quaking at the thought of a renewed conflict.
Did ‘millions’ attend Tommy Robinson’s Unite the Kingdom rally?
The Metropolitan Police were braced for one of the "busiest days for policing in London in recent years" on Saturday, with both a Unite the Kingdom rally organized by Tommy Robinson and a pro-Palestinian Nakba day rally taking place. Some 4,000 officers were deployed, along with helicopters, drones, Sandcat armored vehicles, dogs, horses and live facial recognition systems. The last Unite the Kingdom rally, in September, drew a crowd of 150,000 according to the police, three times what the Met expected – and organizers said this one would be "the biggest patriotic rally to grace this planet." Addressing the crowd at the event, Robinson said "we are here in our millions" and that attendees were at the "biggest event in British history.
The Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang axis is here to stay
On Donald Trump's sojourn to China – the first visit by a US President in almost a decade – North Korea was hardly at the top of the agenda. Trump and Xi Jinping had bigger fish to fry, be that China’s desire to secure rhetorical US concessions on Taiwan, Trump’s wishes for greater Chinese investment in US manufacturing or whether Beijing can compel Iran to ease the effects of the Iran War. But US-China relations are not just a two-player game. Only last weekend, history was made as North Korean soldiers participated in Moscow’s Victory Day parade for the first time. A day beforehand, Kim Jong-un had pledged to Vladimir Putin that North Korea would "give top priority" to its relations with Russia.
Ukraine
The Kremlin’s secret plans for post-war Russia
A top-level Kremlin policy document discussing post-war political planning and how to neutralize potential ultranationalist discontent has been leaked to the Russian investigative site Dossier Center. Entitled "Images of Victory," the paper gives a rare insight into the inner workings of Russia’s political machine. Crucially, it shows that while the Kremlin remains officially indifferent to peace talks, behind the scenes apparatchiks are working hard on selling an inevitable stalemate to the Russian people by dressing it up as a species of victory. The document was leaked before President Trump's announcement today of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Why Ukraine’s Russian oil strikes are backfiring
Every drone Ukraine fires at a Russian oil terminal is meant to defund Moscow's war in Ukraine. Right now, each one may be doing the opposite. Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure are intended to starve Moscow of the budget revenues that fund its war machine. The logic is straightforward: disrupt exports, reduce revenues, constrain the war effort. Kyiv has been explicit about this: Ukrainian officials consistently frame attacks on oil terminals as direct hits on Russia's war chest, treating every barrel that cannot be shipped as a ruble that cannot be spent on missiles or mobilization. Reuters puts the scale of that disruption in stark terms – at least 40 percent of Russia's crude export capacity, roughly 2 million barrels per day, is currently offline.
Ukraine’s allies are falling away
As Ukraine emerges battered but unbowed from the third and most terrible winter of the war against Russia, its people have proved that they can survive and fight on even as Vladimir Putin's troops destroy swaths of their country’s heating, transport and electricity infrastructure. But one thing that Ukraine cannot survive without is money – and that, the European Union seems critically unable to provide. On Thursday, a Council of Europe summit once again failed to remove a veto by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, on a €90 billion ($104 billion) tranche of funding for Ukraine.
Israel
It’s little surprise that an Israeli soldier was caught desecrating a crucifix
There’s something apposite, I suppose, about the desecration of a crucifix. In this case, it was an Israeli soldier in southern Lebanon who took a sledgehammer to one on private property and smashed the Jesus figure on the cross. The original crucifixion, as anyone who heard the gospels over Easter will recall, was marked by the humiliation of Jesus; this attack on the figure of one who took on suffering willingly was another humiliation, through the image. Mind you, if the charmer with the sledgehammer had reflected that the Christ-figure is, in Christian belief, not just God-made-man but God-made-Jew, he might have eased off a bit.
Israel won’t stop in Lebanon until Hezbollah is crushed
Direct US-brokered talks between Israeli and Lebanese representatives are set to take place in Washington this week. The Israeli delegation will be headed by Yehiel Leiter, Jerusalem’s ambassador to the US. Lebanon will be represented by Nada Hamadeh, the Lebanese ambassador to Washington. The State Department will host the negotiations. In his statement on Thursday announcing the talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed their purpose as "disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon." Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, for his part, expressed his hope that Beirut should become a "demilitarized city.
Will Iran give Benjamin Netanyahu a wartime boost?
Israel’s current war on two fronts shows few signs of wrapping up soon. In Lebanon, the indications are that the IDF is looking to establish an expanded buffer zone north of the border, with the intention of holding it for as long as the government in Beirut fails to fulfill its pledge to disarm Hezbollah. In Iran, Israeli air attacks continue daily, even as Tehran's missiles and drones target Israel’s centers of civilian population. This year is an election year in Israel, with polls required by law to take place by October. So what impact, if any, are the conflicts having on the political debate inside Israel? Are they likely to decide the future political prospects of Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and if so, in what direction?
America
Did the Trump/Xi summit achieve anything?
Let’s ditch the idea of the ‘black vote’
Americano
The next chapter in American politics has begun, but is it going to be any less crazy? The Spectator’s Americano podcast delivers in-depth discussions with the best American pundits to keep you in the loop. Presented by Freddy Gray.
Europe
Can British democracy survive the ‘bad chaps?’
What is the greatest threat to British democracy? Zack Polanski’s call for “building a society” that “doesn’t include” people who “identify as right-wing?” Labour’s efforts to flood the Upper House with party apparatchiks? Islamist extremism? The correct answer is Reform UK. That, at least, is the conclusion of a new book called What If Reform Wins by the Times reporter Peter Chappell. Before I get to its flaws, I should acknowledge it’s an enjoyable read, with plenty of deft, comic touches. It imagines that Reform wins a majority in June 2029, and then gives a blow-by-blow account of the constitutional crisis that follows, with the informal rules and conventions underpinning our democracy being stress-tested and found wanting.
Starmer rival Wes Streeting finally resigns from cabinet
After days of deliberation, Wes Streeting has finally quit Keir Starmer’s government. At the stroke of 1 p.m. GMT, the Ilford MP resigned as Health Secretary in a two-page letter that laid out his differences with the UK Prime Minister. He details, at length, the results the pair have achieved in government and says they offer "good reasons for me to remain in post." But: As you know from our conversation earlier this week, having lost confidence in your leadership, I have concluded that it would be dishonorable and unprincipled to do so. It is the opening salvo of a merciless script that goes for Starmer’s jugular. Streeting pins blame for the "unprecedented" results of last week, which pose "an existential threat to the future integrity" of the UK on Starmer himself.
Was Macron slapped because of this Iranian actress?
It was the slap that shook the world. Not so much from shock but laughter, as cameras caught the Macrons having a domestic on an international flight. A book published this week in France claims that Brigitte slapped her husband after discovering "a steamy message" on Emmanuel’s phone sent by an actress. According to Un Couple (Presque) Parfait, ‘Slapgate’ wasn’t the first time Brigitte had to bring her husband to heel over a woman The books says the sender was Iranian-born Golshifteh Farahani, who came to prominence in 2008 when she starred alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in the Ridley Scott film, Body of Lies. Brigitte allegedly found the message as the presidential jet landed at Hanoi airport in May last year.
Today
The tide has turned in Ukraine
The long war in Ukraine has morphed into a new and decisive phase, one that could lead to Ukraine’s upset victory over its much larger, more aggressive neighbor. The global consequences of Russia’s loss – and Vladimir Putin’s humiliation – would be enormous. What is this new phase? Is there really evidence the tide has turned in Ukraine’s favor? To sort out the answers and understand what’s new about the war’s current phase, we need to do a brief tour of the three phases that preceded it. The first phase began well over a decade ago, in February 2014, when Barack Obama was president. Ukraine fatefully signaled it wanted much stronger ties with Europe and the United States, not Russia, at the very moment US deterrence was weak.
Saturday
America has a serious Chinese spying problem
President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone during his trip to China. He returned from his Beijing summit with Xi Jinping yesterday full of praise for the “great leader,” who is, in Trump’s estimations, “an incredible guy.” The summit was “very successful, world-renowned, and unforgettable,” according to the President, who insisted that “a lot of different problems were settled.” But there’s one problem that hasn’t been addressed: the growing number of Chinese operations on US soil. China’s espionage and influence operations are extensive Last week Eileen Wang, the mayor of the southern Californian city of Arcadia agreed to plead guilty to acting as an illegal agent of China.
Friday
Will Canada kill its mentally ill?
Euthanasia for the mentally ill has been one of the most contentious aspects of the Trudeau government’s legacy. Though the entire assisted suicide program is frighteningly dystopian, the idea of euthanizing mentally vulnerable people is in a class of its own. Now, in a rare moment of lucidity, the Carney government may be preparing to halt the expansion – or so the Globe and Mail reported, citing unnamed sources within the government. A parliamentary committee has been tasked with evaluating Canada’s readiness for euthanizing the mentally ill. Originally announced for March 2023, the expansion has been delayed twice, and is currently scheduled for March 17, 2027. That is, unless the parliamentary committee recommends otherwise.
Trump needs a deal, but Xi needs it more
Although the substance of the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping talks are about tariffs, trade, supply issues (rare earth metals etc), fentanyl, Taiwan and most importantly Iran, the main purpose of the meeting for both leaders will be their future political survival. This is the essential subtext that you will probably not hear about from most legacy media. Xi needs a successful deal with Trump to show that he is still useful as Secretary General of the CCP Trump needs to bag wins soon to bring to prevent a Democratic sweep of Congress in November’s midterm elections. Lose both houses and the President can be sure that impeachment will follow.
Thursday
Nigel Farage’s plan to win over the left
The loudest man in politics knows when to keep his silence. Nigel Farage held his tongue as Keir Starmer’s premiership floundered. Aside from a few PFLs – proper f***ing lunches – to celebrate the local election results, the Reform UK leader was already looking to the next challenge. Like a shark, Farage keeps moving forward, into new waters, hungry for more. One ally sums up his approach to politics in a single word: “Momentum.” For the past few months, Farage has had one goal: destroying the Tories. The figure “1,453” was the total of gains proudly pumped out on Reform’s Instagram. For Farage, May 7 was the political equivalent of the fall of Constantinople – the point when the Conservatives ceased to be a national party.
Wednesday
WATCH: Keir Starmer declares himself a ‘gooner’
They say being honest in the face of adversity can help save your neck. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer this afternoon proudly told the House of Commons, “I am a gooner.” https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054575703371153826 Cockburn must be charitable to Starmer (someone has to) and note that his word choice offers an example of two nations divided by a common language. In American English – very online American English – a “gooner” is someone who indulges in extensive bouts of self-gratification. Thanks to Harper’s magazine for making the term more widely known. In British English, however, “gooner” is a variation of “Gunner,” meaning “fan of Arsenal Football Club.” This is only slightly less embarrassing.
The battle for the neoconservative soul
Robert Kagan has long had a knack for capturing public attention with bold pronouncements about American foreign policy. In 1996, together with William Kristol, he published an essay in Foreign Affairs called “Toward A Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy” that chided the Clinton administration for insufficient martial vigor and argued that the Pentagon budget should be doubled. As a charter member of the Project for the New American Century and a regular contributor to the Weekly Standard, Kagan became an eloquent champion of the George W. Bush administration’s Iraq war.
Will Trump and Xi get what they want?
Donald Trump flew to Beijing this week and wants three things when he sits down with China’s President Xi Jinping: a tariff truce that survives his own courts, Chinese pressure on Iran to end the war that never seems to end and a photograph that makes him look victorious. Xi has problems of his own. But he has watched four American presidencies from Zhongnanhai, the walled compound beside the Forbidden City where the Communist party leadership rules, and he knows the value of silence when his counterpart is talking himself into trouble. Trump’s approval rating is the lowest of his second term. What Xi wants from this meeting with Trump is recognition: two great powers, two systems, meeting as equals Trump has obliged Xi noisily.
France is throwing a tantrum at Trump
France is intensifying its counter-offensive against what it calls misinformation. Earlier this month, Paris prosecutors confirmed they have opened a criminal investigation into Elon Musk and X. Musk had ignored a summons to appear for a voluntary interview on April 20. The French state requested Musk assist in an investigation into algorithmic manipulation and the spread of AI deepfakes on X. Musk responded to the criminal investigation by labeling the prosecutors “faker than a chocolate euro and queerer than a pink flamingo in a neon tutu!” On the same day, Paris unveiled its “French Response” strategy. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, posted a video on X (where else?
Tuesday
Keir Starmer has one card left to play
As calls for Sir Keir Starmer’s head grow ever louder among Labour MPs, the British Prime Minister is digging his heels in. He has one more card left to play: divide and conquer. While scores of backbenchers are desperate for change at the top, they are completely split on the question of who should take over. Those on the Labour right who have deserted Sir Keir are rallying behind Wes Streeting. The soft left are desperate for the return of Andy Burnham but, short of that, could support bids from Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband. This lack of any consensus works to Starmer’s advantage.
Trump is in the mood to do a deal with China
As President Trump travels to China today, his original plans for the visit have been upended. He wanted to arrive as a triumphant conqueror but increasingly resembles a supplicant. Will he strike a "Two T’s" deal – a grand bargain that trades Taipei for Tehran? Trump has periodically voiced his irritation with China, but at bottom he respects – and even admires – President Xi Jinping as the kind of tough guy that he can do business with on a variety of fronts. The most important one has become Iran, which is threatening to increase its nuclear enrichment program and successfully defying Trump’s threats to blow it into oblivion. China is Iran’s biggest backer. It previously pushed Tehran into ceasefire talks with Washington.
Monday
What’s going on with the Kennedy Center?
22 min listen
Freddy is joined by Josef Palermo, who formerly worked for the Kennedy Center, to discuss the historical building and whether its cultural and ethos has been ruined by the Trump administration.
Sunday
China’s theft of American AI tech is becoming more brazen
Despite the hype surrounding China’s artificial intelligence capabilities, progress remains heavily dependent on theft and smuggling. The Chinese Communist party (CCP), meanwhile, is determined to maintain tight control. That has become increasingly clear ahead of this week’s Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader is determined to lead the world in what he terms an "epoch-defining technology." He appears confident that Trump, preoccupied by his war against Iran, has limited options to counter Beijing’s increasingly brazen activities. Last month, the White House accused Beijing of "industrial-scale" theft of know-how from American AI labs.
Saturday
What Putin’s Victory Day says about war-time Russia
For the first time in 18 years, Russia’s Victory Day parade will have no tanks. There will be no missile carriers and no armored columns on Red Square. Several regions have canceled their parades altogether. Muscovites had been told to expect no mobile internet on the day itself or this evening. The Ministry of Defense has declared a unilateral ceasefire for May 8 and 9 and warned, in the same breath, that any Ukrainian attack will be answered by "a massive retaliatory missile strike on the center of Kyiv." The Russian Foreign Ministry has helpfully advised foreign embassies in the Ukrainian capital to consider evacuating their staff. The official explanation for the missing weaponry is the threat from Ukrainian FPV drones.
Friday
All roads lead to Rome for Rubio
"What to get someone who has everything, I thought," said Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday, as he handed Pope Leo a funny little crystal-football present. "Wow, OK," replied Leo, stiffly. It was a useful reminder that Rubio is not always a smooth operator. For all the articles suggesting he has now overtaken Vice President J.D. Vance as favorite to be the 2028 Republican nominee, for all the media gushing over the "Secretary of Everything" in the White House briefing room, Lil’ Marco can still be something of a robotic plonker on the big stage. Lil’ Marco can still be something of a robotic plonker on the big stage It was Rubio, after all, who was the first cabinet official to suggest in public that Israel had strong-armed America into attacking Iran.
What’s going to happen when Trump visits Beijing?
26 min listen
Freddy is joined by Geoffrey Cain, author of Steve Jobs in Exile, to discuss the significance of China has a global player in international conflict and what could come from Trump's visit to Beijing next week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?
Thursday
Russians no longer believe Putin’s war propaganda
A year ago, Russia marked the May 9 Victory Day celebration with a spectacular display of fireworks that lit up the Moscow sky. This year the fireworks have again been spectacular – but this time they have been caused by long-range Ukrainian attack drones slamming into refineries, pumping stations and factories deep inside Russia. In the Black Sea port of Tuapse, fireballs of burning gasoline 15 stories high erupted over the local oil refinery, while rivers of burning fuel ran down the city’s streets. Firefighters took three days to extinguish the inferno, which created a plume of smoke so high it was filmed by skiers from the slopes of the Caucasus mountains more than 60 miles away.
How dangerous is the cruise ship hantavirus outbreak?
Here we go again, or maybe not. The World Health Organization is reassuring us that the public health risk from hantavirus is low, after the outbreak on a cruise ship. Hantaviruses are a classic zoonosis: caught from animals. You have to inhale dust containing infected rodent droppings or – in the case of this Andean variant, which has shown limited human-to-human transmission before – to have close and prolonged contact with somebody who has already caught the virus. That means being coughed on, not just sharing the same air in a room. Zoonotic agents are often very good at killing people – Ebola, Marburg, Nipah, Hendra, SARS and Hanta have high fatality rates – but are not so good at infecting people Trouble is, of course, WHO said the same about Covid.
Trump is clinging to a mirage in the Middle East
Well, well, well. For all the head-scratching that it initially occasioned, President Trump’s hasty abandonment of "Project Freedom" – his grandly titled plan to open the Strait of Hormuz – turns out not to be so mysterious after all. Trump’s reversal, NBC News revealed late yesterday, came at the behest of America’s Gulf allies, foremost among them Riyadh which told Washington that it would suspend the US military’s right to use its airspace. Now Trump, who has described his current exchanges with Iran as "very good," is breathing optimism about a one-page peace memorandum that he claims will be completed by the end of the week. Iran, by contrast, merely says that Trump’s proposal is “under review.
Wednesday
Meloni is being haunted by the ghost of Berlusconi
The late Silvio Berlusconi has come back from the dead – momentarily, it is hoped – to torment Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the guise of the old rogue’s "bunga bunga" woman-in-chief. As a result, Meloni’s opponents and their many friends in the media are baying for the blood of her justice minister Carlo Nordio in a bid to cause her fatal damage. Normal people cannot help but wonder why on earth an Italian president is granting a pardon to someone like her, who has not spent even one single day in prison Italy’s 69 governments since the foundation of the Republic of Italy in 1946 have lasted on average little more than a year.
