Election

Read the latest General Election news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Eliot Wilson

Unionists are right to feel furious with Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage likes to see himself as a reliable pal, so it was very much in that spirit that Reform UK’s new leader said that he was endorsing two Democratic Unionist Party candidates, Ian Paisley Jr in North Antrim and Sammy Wilson in East Antrim. Both are DUP stalwarts. Both are very likely to be re-elected on 4 July. Farage’s endorsement rests on their support for him during the long years of fighting to achieve and secure the UK’s departure from the European Union. The only problem is that Reform UK had previously signed a formal ‘memorandum of understanding’ to support the candidates of their rivals, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)

Iain Macwhirter

An audience member had the best line during the Scottish leaders’ debate

Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross, has said he’ll resign after the 4 July election following criticism of his treatment of a rival Tory candidate and questions over his expenses. It is unusual, to say the least, for a party leader to announce their intention to step down during a general election campaign rather than after it. Even more singular for that leader to continue representing his party in leadership debates, as Ross did on the BBC last night. That elicited the best line of the night from a quick-witted audience member: ‘You need to tidy the flat before you move out, John’ With this in mind, the best question of the night came

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Sunak’s manifesto is not credible

Rishi Sunak’s manifesto launch was necessarily defensive: the Prime Minister is trying to stem the losses in this election campaign rather than present an exciting vision of a new Britain. It was striking how much Sunak talked about Labour in his speech at Silverstone. Almost every Tory policy he referred to was immediately contrasted with what Labour would or wouldn’t do. His best line was that ‘if you don’t know what Labour will do, don’t vote for them. If you’re concerned about what Starmer isn’t telling you, don’t vote for them’. Even if the Tories did make bold promises, there is a credibility gap The best Sunak can hope for

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Sunak’s National Insurance pledge could backfire

Two years ago, as Chancellor, Rishi Sunak chose to jack up National Insurance contributions. It is a mark of how all over the place this government has been that cutting NI has now emerged as Sunak’s big idea.  Fairness to the Conservatives seems to mean the self-employed being excused from a 6 per cent tax which is paid by employees Abolishing the main rate of NI for the self-employed by the end of next parliament is the one eye-catching initiative which was not trailed before the launch of the Conservative manifesto – the now customary ‘rabbit out of the hat’. Employees will get an NI cut, too – their rate

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Rishi Sunak’s manifesto is thin gruel

Rishi Sunak today launched a manifesto that might suffice for a governing party polling at level pegging with the opposition in a country where things have been going well. You will no doubt have spotted the problems with this: he’s more than 20 points behind in the polls largely thanks to losing most of his right flank to an insurgent rival, while the British public overwhelmingly believes their country is heading in the wrong direction. So a technocrat’s bloodless canter through what one of my social media followers aptly described as ‘magnolia gruel’ was never going to cut it. Sunak is more than 20 points behind in the polls Sunak’s

Steerpike Steerpike

Farage attacked again on campaign trail

Nigel Farage is continuing his cross-country campaign as he makes the case for voters to back Reform UK on 4 July. But while the arch-Brexiteer’s new party is polling well — coming just two points below the Tories in last week’s YouGov survey — Farage isn’t getting a friendly response everywhere. A week after the milkshake incident at Clacton-on-sea, poor Nige has had to face off a rather more serious attack. The ex-Ukip leader took his battle bus to South Yorkshire today, where he waved to cheering locals from the open-topped double-decker. But it wasn’t long before the pleasant atmosphere was ruined by a hooded man hurling objects from a

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The nasty tax surprise hidden in the Tory manifesto

There are no big policy surprises in the Tory manifesto – not least because the major announcements on tax, immigration, welfare, housing and social care were all revealed before the document was published (James Heale has a helpful list here).  As already reported, a fifth consecutive Conservative government would cut employee National Insurance by another 2p, totalling a £1,300 tax cut for the average worker with the 4p that has already been cut; revive the Help to Buy Scheme that enables first-time buyers to have deposits of just 5 per cent (and unfortunately led to house prices increasing in Greater London); reduce immigration by capping work and family visas (with no details about

James Heale James Heale

Sunak plays it safe with his manifesto

With three weeks to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak this morning unveiled his prospectus for a Conservative government. There had been much talk that the Tory manifesto would have a big, bold policy to win back voters: perhaps the abolition of inheritance tax or maybe a referendum on the European Court of Human Rights. Such measures though were rejected in favour of a more modest tax reduction. With most of the manifesto briefed in advance, the headline-grabbing measure from today’s launch is the news that the Conservatives will abolish National Insurance contributions for the self-employed by the end of the next parliament. Sunak claims that this will be worth

Alexander Horne

Why Rishi Sunak can’t weaponise the ECHR

One of the major themes of the current election campaign is the attempt by Rishi Sunak to draw a dividing line between the Tories and  Labour on the issue of immigration, particularly when it comes to the Rwanda scheme. Today, the Conservative party sought to highlight the issue in its manifesto.  The manifesto claims a Conservative government would: ‘stop the boats by removing illegal migrants to Rwanda’, ‘stop illegal migrants bringing spurious legal challenges’ and ‘work with other countries to rewrite asylum treaties’. It also repeated a slogan that Sunak had previously trailed at the first televised debate with Keir Starmer that ‘if we are forced to choose between our security

Steerpike Steerpike

Former Green leader jumps ship to Labour

Another day, another drama. As general election campaign shenanigans continue, it now transpires that Robin Harper — the UK’s first ever Green parliamentarian and former leader of the Scottish Greens — has jumped ship to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party. With just over three and a half weeks to go until polling day, the veteran politician has announced he is endorsing the Shadow Scotland Secretary, Ian Murray, in Edinburgh South. The writing was on the wall when the ex-Edinburgh MP revealed last week that Harper was helping as a ‘volunteer’ during his campaigning. Murray — who until last year’s Rutherglen by-election was the only Scottish Labour MP since 2019 —

Andrew Lilico

It isn’t true that elections are always won from the centre

Last week, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt argued that the Tories shouldn’t pitch to the right in response to Nigel Farage and Reform, because ‘elections are always won from the centre ground.’ It is one of the most widely-repeated ideas in political analysis that elections are won from the centre. It isn’t really true, but it isn’t a silly idea and it’s interesting to understand why so many people believe it and the reasons it’s wrong. Its origins lie in economics, and in particular a model produced by an American economist called Harold Hotelling. That model is usually illustrated using the thought experiment of two ice cream sellers on a beach. The

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The Tories are addressing welfare reform too late

The launch of the Conservative manifesto later this morning will dominate today’s headlines. But it’s worth reflecting, before the full details are released, on how we ended up with an earlier-than-expected election. In addition to ministers’ fear that the small boats figures would rise this summer – and flights to Rwanda would be grounded – there was also growing concern that the economic data wouldn’t tell the good news story they wanted to take into an autumn election. Today’s labour market update complicates that theory.  The Labour market is still cooling, but slowly. Unemployment rose again, to 4.4 per cent between February and April this year: this takes the rate

Gareth Roberts Gareth Roberts

The trouble with ‘centrist’ Tories

‘Elections are won from the centre ground,’ the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said. Perhaps he should have a word with his own party. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years and, while they are nominally centre-right, many of the party’s policies and positions will hardly strike the average voter as sensible and centrist. Maybe if the Tories really had stuck to the centre ground they wouldn’t be 21 points behind in the polls and heading for electoral wipeout on 4 July. Nowhere is the Tories’ refusal to adopt a sensible centrist position clearer than in the gender debate. The middle ground on this issue is surely that the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Sorry Sunak can’t muster much of a fight in BBC interview

A clash of the razor-blades. That’s how it started. Nick Robinson’s grey jowls were dotted with stubble as he sat down to quiz the PM on BBC One. Rishi Sunak had shaved. Robinson hadn’t bothered. And that mismatch set the tone for their bad-tempered interview. Robinson played the irritable major-general going over the blunders of an incompetent subaltern. The worst error Rishi had committed, said Robinson, was ‘bunking off D-Day.’ Rishi grovelled abjectly, yet again. His upper lip quivered nervously. ‘I hope that people can find it in their hearts to forgive me,’ he said. Crikey. Anyone would think that he’d crashed a chopper into a column of veterans on

Monday

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Sunak splutters in BBC interview, but Starmer won’t do much better

Rishi Sunak has started to move on from his D-Day blunder. He probably won’t recover from the electoral damage he caused himself, but he is now able to talk about other things. The question is what is it that he can talk about that will actually get the voters listening? This evening he gave an interview to the BBC’s Nick Robinson where – after making his apology for the way he ‘bunked off’, as Robinson put it – he had to answer questions on why people should believe the promises the Conservatives are making on tax, immigration, the NHS, and so on, when none of the things they’d promised so

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Lib Dem policies are as barmy as their campaign

Ed Davey has finally taken a break from fooling around to launch some policies. But one of them, in particular, is not going to please a great number of Lib Dem voters. The Lib Dem manifesto is to propose giving local councils the power to put a 500 per cent council tax surcharge on second homes. Obviously, there is minimal danger of the Lib Dems actually getting into power to impose such a policy, so those nice Lib Dem voters in Richmond and Kingston who have boltholes in Salcombe, Southwold, and so on can still afford the luxury of voting for the party without actually having to face the cost

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Fighting over the Tory manifesto begins a day early

On Tuesday morning, Rishi Sunak will unveil the Conservative party’s 2024 manifesto. So far, there is talk of tax cuts, welfare reform and the need to reform the ECHR. But some on the conservative side are already voicing alarm that the 76-page draft document is playing it too safe on tax and borders – and lacks big ideas. As one figure privy to the document puts it: ‘It could flop’. While Tory candidates pray there is a rabbit in the hat to be unveiled tomorrow, Labour are busy getting their own attack lines in. This afternoon Jonathan Ashworth – the shadow cabinet office minister with the unofficial title of ‘minister

Steerpike Steerpike

Reform candidate apologises for his Hitler neutrality comments

Oh dear, it seems like the election scandals are coming thick and fast at the moment. Today, it was the turn of Reform UK, after it was revealed that one of the party’s candidates claimed Britain would be ‘far better’ if we had ‘taken Hitler up on his offer of neutrality’ instead of fighting the Nazis during the second world war. Talk about a vote winner…  Ian Gribbin, Reform’s candidate for the Bexhill and Battle constituency, has caused a spot of bother for Nigel Farage’s party after a selection of his online posts came to light today. Commenting on the UnHerd website in July 2022, the Bexhill candidate wrote:  ‘Britain would

James Heale James Heale

Will the Lib Dem manifesto win over the ‘Blue Wall’?

Sir Ed Davey kicked off manifesto week by launching his party’s document this afternoon in East London. In true Lib Dem style, it is a weighty tome of 114 pages – the product of months of painstaking care by party strategists. Their task was to reconcile the desires of the activist base with the demands of Tory voters that the leadership is trying to woo across the South of England. ‘We are a genuine party democracy – sadly’, joked one of Davey’s aides to me at last year’s conference. That tradition means that, unlike the Conservatives, the Lib Dem document cannot be cooked up in a matter of weeks and

Iain Macwhirter

Douglas Ross has made things even worse for the Tories

You thought things couldn’t get worse for the Conservative party in this election? They just did. The Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, has announced that he is to resign his leadership following yet another alleged scandal concerning a Tory politician. Few in Ross’s own party can keep up with the twists and turns of his political ambitions Allegations were reported over the weekend that Mr Ross had used his Westminster expenses to travel around the country performing his side hustle as an assistant referee for the Scottish Football Association. Mr Ross denies acting improperly and insists that he has only ever claimed expenses related to his role as MP. Needless to say,